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The importance of preschool education for child development and international experiences in expanding coverage Presentation by Jan van Ravens at the conference on: “Investing in Early Childhood Education in Serbia” 25 September 2012 Hotel Park, Belgrade Economics of Early Childhood “On a purely economic basis, it makes a lot of sense to invest in the young… Early learning begets later learning. And early success breeds later success.” --James J. Heckman, Ph.D. Nobel Prize Laureate Economist Early Intervention and Early Childhood Ramey & Ramey (1999). American Psychologist. Engle, P. (2005). Developmental Readiness. Approach 1: comparing countries • This analysis was published in the leading journal The Lancet (23 September 2011) • Authors compared low and middle income countries with a total of 2.7 billion inhabitants • Used three scenarios: 25% , 35% or 50% increase in preschool enrolment • Estimated the gains in terms of educational attainment and, from there, of GNP growth • And found a benefit to cost ratio of 6.4 to 17.6 (depending on initial preschool enrolment; on discount rate; and on which scenario) Approach 2: comparing children A preschool program in the USA Comparing treatment group and control group Benefit to cost ratio of 17, by the age of 40 Benefits and costs per participant in US$ (constant 2000) and with 3% discount rate Welfare Education Earnings Taxes paid Crime $15.166 Benefits Costs $0 Total return = $258,888; $17.07 per dollar invested: $12.90 to the public, $4.17 to participants $50.000 $100.000 $150.000 $200.000 $250.000 $300.000 Disadvantaged children benefit most A quick look into the “Black Box” Looking to the West...... For Serbia: enrolment in pre-primary in 2009 at ages 3-5.5: 48% For EU-countries: enrolment in pre-primary among 3 and 4 year olds in 2005-2006. For UK: only 3 year olds. At age 4, 90% of children are either in pre-primary or primary 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Austria Denmark France Germany Italy Spain (UK) Serbia ... and looking to the East Enrolment at ages 3-6 by GDP per capita Note: from international data-base. Data for Serbia may differ from national sources. Wealth disparities (% children 36-59 months attending early education) Short programs seem 4 to 6 times less costly than full-day programs Currency Unit cost full-day Unit cost half-day Ratio: full / half Armenia US$ 216 34.2 6.32 Kyrgyzstan Som 6010 1670 3.60 Macedonia Denar 71590 11139 6.43 Poland Zloty 4500 1200 3.75 Short or Fullday: some examples • Kyrgyzstan: rapid expansion of short programs, initiated by NGOs but taken ove by Government • Poland: “where there are no Preschools” • Big differences in West-Europe, for example: – Belgium. From age 2.5 onwards: fullday care in small groups with close to 100% enrolment in public institutions. Same in France and Italy. – Netherlands. Only from age 4: school-based program of 5 hours per day on average in large groups. No meals or beds. Childcare mainly private. Special programs for disadvantaged. How to finance scale up • Expand gradually: first from age 4, then from age 3 • Use existing preschool budget: – Raise efficiency – Raise full-day fee selectively (social justice) • Use ‘demographic dividend’: – Use existing space in schools – Retrain primary teachers Main conclusions • Serbia has every chance to expand coverage of preschool education, provided that we: – promote enrolment in short programs, and – convince parents who do not need daycare • Serbia should first focus on the poorest but eventually aim at universal coverage: – 48% of the children are already on board! – children in the middle groups benefit as well (A Vision for Universal Preschool Education. Zigler, Gilliam and Jones, 2006)