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State Update: New South Wales – September 2015
NAB Group Economics
Contents
Photo: Mai Thai
Key Points
2
In Focus: Impacts from the housing market
3
Consumer and household sector
4
Business sector
5
Labour market
7
Demographics
8
Residential property
9
Fiscal outlook and semis
10
Economic structure and trade
12
Key points
•
•
•
•
•
•
NSW state final demand is forecast to be robust, while export demand will
remain subdued before slowly improving over coming years. Consequently, Gross
State Product (GSP) growth is expected to remain solid at just below 3% in 201516 and 2016-17 (Chart 1). Further out, there is a risk that rising interest rates (from
late 2016) will weigh more heavily on NSW given its relative debt levels.
State final demand growth has been stronger in NSW than the national aggregate
(Chart 2). This is consistent with the Australian economy’s transition away from the
mining boom towards more diverse drivers of economic growth. However, subdued
conditions in other states and internationally are expected to weigh on the traded
sector, although AUD depreciation should be helping. Improvements in state
domestic demand have largely stemmed from residential markets, buoyed by low
interest rates, population growth, undersupply and strong investor demand.
Dwelling investment has picked up sharply on the back of higher property prices. The
elevated stock of residential projects will sustain growth in dwelling investment
for some time to come. Chronic under-supply of housing and strong price growth
validates these high levels of residential investment in Sydney, although the potential
for oversupply in the apartment market has risen. The NAB Residential Property
Survey suggests sentiment in NSW remains solid. However, growing supply and a
tightening of investor credit will take some steam out of the market.
Spill-over effects from the residential market are being felt elsewhere. The boost
to household wealth has been good for consumption, although the positive
momentum slowed somewhat in late 2014/early 2015. Consumer activity lifted again
more recently, but this is partly a reflection of Federal Budget incentives for small
business. With interest rates expected to remain low and lower oil prices assisting
disposable income, consumption growth should improve further, although subdued
wages growth and consumer confidence will remain a constraint.
The labour market has improved notably in Greater Sydney, but continues to
look soft in the rest of NSW. The NAB Business Survey suggest that labour intensive
(non-mining) sectors of the economy are gaining momentum, which should continue
to drive employment growth. However, additional labour supply (returning from the
mining states) is expected to keep falls in the unemployment rate relatively modest.
The unemployment rate is forecast to drift downwards toward 5½% by mid-2017.
Conditions are gradually improving for business and investment, while public
infrastructure spending will provide key support to the local economy over
coming years. Both business conditions and confidence have steadily improved in
NSW and spare capacity has been tightening, but high ‘hurdle rates’ remain a
constraint on investment. Consequently, investment intentions and non-residential
building approvals remain subdued (although some major projects have been
approved in areas such as health). Business conditions have been particularly solid in
service sectors, which appear to be seeing some benefit from AUD depreciation –
short-term arrivals and international education enrolments have been picking up.
Contact
James Glenn, Senior Economist
Riki Polygenis, Head of Australian Economics
Skye Masters, Head of Interest Rate Strategy
Chart 1: State GSP Growth Forecasts
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
NSW
VIC
2013-14
QLD
SA
2014-15 (e)
WA
TAS
2015-16 (f)
NT
2016-17 (f)
ACT
Chart 2: State Growth
12
8
28
12
State Final Demand
NSW
Australia
824
4
420
0
016
-4
8
-8
12
Gross State Product Growth*
8
-12
4
4
-16
0
0
-4
-20
-4
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
*NAB Estimate
Sources: ABS; NAB Economics
2
In Focus: Impacts of the housing market boom
The NSW housing market is performing extremely well, especially given the
patchy (albeit improving) economic context. House prices have increased
18.4% over the year to July and show very little sign of slowing (Chart 3).
Falling rental yields and higher price-to-income ratios (towards record highs)
are raising concerns of a looming market correction (Chart 5). The measures,
however, fail to account to improved borrowing power due to lower interest
rates. Accounting for this suggests prices are not yet significantly overvalued.
Ratio
$000
800
700
Sydney Dwelling Prices
200
104
103
NSW - Dwellings to resident
101
500
Capital City Dwelling 100
99
400
300
98
200
97
100
96
0
1995
150
102
population (rhs)
600
100
50
95
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
1985
2013
Chart 5: Rental yields & price-to-income ratio
8
Rental Yield
Price-to-income
7
6
1991
NSW House App to pop
NSW Unit App to pop
Aust House App to pop
Aust Unit App to pop
1997
2003
2009
2015
1987
1993
1999
2005
2011
2017
Chart 6: NSW Retail sales growth by category
6-month annualised growth, smoothed
Cafes etc
5
Hardware
Clothing
6
4
5
Electrical Goods
Furnishings
3
4
3
1996
Nevertheless, strength in the residential market is having a positive flow-on
effect to the broader economy, namely consumption (Chart 6).
Chart 4: Approvals relative to population growth (LRA = 100)
Chart 3: House prices and under-investment in dwellings
900
Housing supply is responding to prices. Chronic under-supply in Sydney
would appear to justify such high rates of construction, although the ratio of
apartment approvals to population may indicate some potential over-supply
for that market in the near term – suggesting down price pressure from
supply will be more pronounced in the apartment market (Chart 4).
Department stores
Other
2
2000
2004
2008
2012
Sydney house rental yield
Aust unit rental yield
1996
Source: ABS; CoreLogic; NAB Economics
2000
2004
2008
Aust house rental yield
Sydney unit rental yield
2012
Food
0
5
10
%
15
3
Wealth effects helping to offset weak income growth, supporting consumption
Labour income growth in NSW has remained relatively subdued, reflecting
the degree of spare capacity in the labour market and well contained
expectations for inflation (Chart 7).
Despite this, wealth effects from higher house prices helped to support retail
sales growth, although the impetus appeared to slow from late 2014
(Chart 9). Consumer activity appears to have picked up again in recent
months – in part reflecting Budget initiatives for small business.
Chart 8: NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey – spending behaviour (net
balance index)
Chart 7: Average Compensation and Household Consumption
Growth ( YoY)
10%
Compensation of employees
The Q3 2015 NAB Consumer Anxiety Survey showed some improvement, but
continues to highlight a number of challenges for consumers. Despite
enjoying the wealth effects from rising house prices, consumers continue to
report a high degree of caution in relation to their spending behaviours.
In Q3 2015, households still showed preference towards conservative
spending (eg. paying down debt), but were more inclined to spend on nondiscretionary items as well, such as travel and eating out (Chart 8).
Household consumption
8%
6%
Entertainment
4%
Transport
2%
Medical expenses
0%
-2%
-4%
1995
Paying off debt
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Chart 9: Retail Turnover and House Price Growth
Utilities
28%
Major HH items
Eating out
Charitable
donations
Personal goods
20%
Sydney House Price Growth (Y-o-Y %)
22%
Retail Turnover Growth (Y-o-Y%)
16%
Groceries
Use of credit
12%
16%
8%
10%
4%
4%
Children
Savings, super,
investments
Home
improvements
Travel
0%
-2%
-8%
2004
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-4%
Q2'15
Q3'15
-8%
2006
2008
Sources: ABS; NAB Economics
2010
2012
2014
4
Business environment improving (outside of mining), but firms still reluctant to invest
According to the monthly NAB Business Survey, capacity utilisation of
businesses in NSW has steadily improved over the past 12-months, and is
well above the national average (Chart 10). This trend is consistent with a
trend improvement in business conditions in the state, which along with
Victoria, has tended to outperform the other mainland states (Chart 11).
Tighter capacity (labour & capital) is a positive indication for wages and
investment in the state.
However, measures of investment intentions are mixed. Expectations from
the NAB Business Survey are looking reasonably robust (Chart 12), while ABS
capex expectations remain relatively muted (slide 6). Firms appear reluctant
to invest in the current business environment, demanding high rates of
return (hurdle rates) before committing to new projects.
Services sectors have consistently shown the best business conditions in the
NAB Survey, but confidence has been more mixed -- retail confidence has
been a standout post the Federal Budget in May (Chart 13).
Chart 10: NAB Business Survey – Capacity Utilisation
86
NSW
Chart 11: Spread in NAB Business Conditions
40
Total
30
84
82
80
78
Spread
Min
Total
40
30
NSW
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
76
-20
-20
74
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-30
2007
Chart 12: NAB Survey Capex Expectations & Private Business
Growth
60
Investment
50
40
NSW Capex Expectations (12-month, lhs)
20
50
30
10
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Sources: ABS; NAB Economics
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Chart 13: NSW Business Conditions & Confidence by State
NSW Business Investment Growth (rhs)
30
-30
2008
-10
-30
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Net Balance (%). Latest Quarter
Conditions
Confidence
-50
5
Business reluctant to invest, although some large projects still in the pipeline
Reflecting firms reluctance to commit to new investment, non-residential
building approvals have been relatively muted compared to the trends seen
in the residential sector (Chart 14). However, some very large projects – such
as the $6bn Barangaroo project – will help support construction activity in
the near-term.
Falling office vacancy rates are consistent with an apparent improvement in
office (and other commercial property) markets according to NAB
Commercial Property Survey (Charts 16 & 17).
Expected capital expenditure (capex) by businesses (according to the ABS
survey) suggests that spending on buildings and structures in NSW is likely to
remain relatively flat in the next 12 months, while planned spending on
machinery and equipment is expected to improve moderately (Chart 15). Part
of the subdued outlook is explained by the continuing contraction of mining
investment.
Chart 15: NSW Capital Expenditure & Expectations
Chart 14: Non-residential Building Approvals ($ millions)
600
$b
18
500
16
Actual & expected based on previous realisation ratio
14
400
12
300
10
200
6
8
4
100
0
2000
2
0
2002
2004
Retail/wholesale
2006
Offices
2008
2010
2012
Factories
Warehouses
Building & Structures
2014
Other
2012-13
Chart 16: NSW Office Market Conditions
%
5
300
6
250
7
200
8
150
9
20
100
10
10
50
11
0
12
-10
2007
2009
Office Approvals (lhs)
Sources: ABS; JLL; NAB Economics
2014-15
2015-16 (e)
Chart 17: NAB Commercial Property Index - NSW
$m
350
0
2005
Machinery & Equipment
2013-14
2011
2013
2015
Office Vacancy Rates (inverse, rhs)
60
Jun14
Mar15
Jun15
50
40
30
-20
Office
retail
industrial
Total
6
Strong employment growth despite elevated unemployment rate
Labour market conditions vary considerably across the state. While
conditions appear to be improving around Greater Sydney, regional areas
continue to look relatively weak (Chart 18).
Aggregate job growth has been strong in NSW, with 118k jobs created over
the year to July 2015 – the strongest gain in around 7 years. However, solid
population growth and a rising participation rate meant that the
unemployment rate has remained near its recent peak (at 6%, Chart 20).
Chart 19: Change in employment by industry, last 12 months, NSW,
'000
Chart 18: Unemployment rate by region, % nsa
10
NSW
Greater Sydney
In the last 12 months to June 2015, most of the jobs created were in
construction – consistent with the large residential construction pipeline –
and the services sectors. Unsurprisingly, job losses have been largest in
public administration and mining, consistent with fiscal restraint, a
deterioration in coal markets and falls in mining investment (Chart 19).
Rest of NSW
Public admin
9
Mining
8
Arts
7
Other services
6
Wholesale trade
5
Utilities
4
Finance
3
Manufacturing
2
1999
Admin services
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Chart 20: Unemployment rate & NAB capacity utilisation rate
74
%
Per cent; Dollar billions
76
78
12
$b
10
Unemployment rate (rhs)
Agriculture
Rental services
Hospitality
Communications
Education
8
Health
Retail trade
80
82
6
Capacity Utilisation (inverse, lhs)
84
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Sources: ABS; NAB Economics
4
2
Transport
Business services
Construction
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
7
Demographic trends turning more positive as mining investment boom winds down
Since peaking in 2009, NSW population growth has slowed, but much more
modestly than in other (especially non-mining) states. The slowdown has
largely been driven by net overseas migration and natural increases. In
contrast, net interstate migration continues to slow as the mining boom
unwinds (Chart 21).
After lagging behind for more than a decade, NSW population growth is now
consistent with national average levels (Chart 23).
Chart 22: NSW Employment by country of birth
Chart 21: NSW Population growth (000s, over the year)
140
Change in number employed over 12 months (000's)
Natural increase
Net overseas migration
Net interstate migration
Total population growth
120
100
80
Population trends are consistent with observations from the labour market.
While employment growth in NSW has improved notably, it appears that
domestic workers have largely satisfied the growing demand (Chart 22).
Australia
60
New Zealand
40
20
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
0
-20
Full-time
Part-time
SOUTHERN & EASTERN EUROPE
-40
-60
Source:
1982 source
1985 1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
NORTH AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH-EAST ASIA
Chart 23: NSW Population growth (year-ended growth)
2.5
NSW
NORTH-EAST ASIA
AUS
2.0
SOUTHERN & CENTRAL ASIA
1.5
AMERICAS
1.0
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
0.5
0.0
1982
OTHER
1985
1988
1991
Sources: ABS; NAB Economics
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
-30 -20 -10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
8
70
Residential property market a stand out, but momentum likely to slow
The NSW residential property sector remains very strong, supporting high
levels of approvals and commencements, as well as the rapid pace of
residential property price growth (Chart 24).
The NAB Property Survey suggest the market will continue to perform well in
the near-term, although the pace of price growth is likely to slow (Chart 26).
Approvals
16000
Residential property price growth by sub-region in Sydney suggests fairly
consistent capital growth for both houses and units across regions (Chart 27).
Chart 25: NSW Residential Property Price Growth
Chart 24: NSW Residential Approvals & Commencements
18000
Price growth has varied across property types and regions, although all have
generally performed reasonably well (Chart 25). Price growth is particularly
strong in Sydney houses, followed by units. Growth has been more subdued
for regional houses, but has still risen by more than 5% over the year to July.
30
Commencements
14000
Sydney Units
Regional Houses
20
12000
15
10000
10
8000
5
6000
4000
0
2000
-5
0
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
Chart 26: NAB Property Survey – House Price Expectations (%)
4.0
Estimated price growth in relevant survey
0.0
Australia
Sources: ABS; CoreLogic; NAB Economics
Next 2y
Next Qtr
Q2'15
Q1'15
Expectation
Q4'14
Q3'14
Q2'14
Q1'14
Q4'13
Q3'13
Q2'13
Q1'13
Q4'12
Q3'12
Q2'12
Q1'12
Q4'11
Q3'11
Q2'11
Q1'11
NSW
Next 12m
-2.0
-10
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Chart 27: Sydney - Median Property Price Growth (year to Q1 2015)
2.0
-4.0
Sydney Houses
25
St George-Sutherland
Outer Western Sydney
Outer South Western Sydney
Northern Beaches
Lower Northern Sydney
Inner Western Sydney
Inner Sydney
Fairfield-Liverpool
Eastern Suburbs
Central Western Sydney
Central Northern Sydney
Central Coast
Canterbury-Bankstown
Blacktown
House Prices
Unit Prices
0
5
10
15
20
9
25
Fiscal position helped by residential transfer duties. Extensive infrastructure investment pipeline
The State Budget for NSW continues to anticipate an operating surplus going
forward. While the surplus has been boosted by a restructuring of transport
assets, the surplus excluding the restructuring for 2014-15 and 2015-16 is still
up from the 2014-15 Budget (Chart 28).
Upward revisions to revenues in 2014-15 reflect higher-than-expected
residential transfer duty, the re-profiling of Commonwealth grants, and
higher distributions from the Public Non-Financial Corporation sector.
Revenue growth is expected to moderate in coming years due to a change in
GST relativities and falling CNP payments.
The NSW government remains focused on expense restraint. Expenses for
2014-15 are expected to come under Budget by $311 million, while expense
growth over coming years is expected to average 2.8%.
Nevertheless, there continues to be an extensive infrastructure investment
plan in NSW, which will help to drive support to the local economy over
coming years. The 2015-16 Budget includes $68.6b committed to
infrastructure projects over the four years to 2018-19 (across both GG and
PNFCs). Much of this relates to previously announced transport projects.
Chart 28: NSW net operating balance & transfer duty revenue (% of
GSP)
Transfer duty revenue
Net operating balance
1.6
1.4
Chart 29: NSW Composition of state revenues
1.2
1.0
Royalty
Income
2%
Sales of
Goods
and
Services
11%
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
Chart 30: NSW state capital spending by function
20
$b
16
Other
7%
Taxation
39%
Other
Common
wealth
Grants
17%
GST
24%
12
8
4
0
2015-16
Housing
Education
2016-17
Health
Water
Sources: NSW State Budget; NAB Economics
2017-18
Electricity
Other
2018-19
Transport
10
Net debt to rise but manageable; borrowings to decline with sale of ‘poles and wires’
NSW net debt is being impacted by asset sales where the initial reduction in
net debt position (as proceeds are included) is unwound as these are
reinvested into capital expenditure. Current estimates do not include
proceeds from the partial lease of electricity network.
NSWTC plans to issue AUD7.3bn in 2015-16, comprising AUD5.1bn of
refinancing and AUD2.2bn of new borrowings. NSWTC forecasts issuance to
average AUD7bn over the forward estimates. Projections do not include
retirement of debt from the lease of polls and wires.
Chart 31: NSW Non-Financial Public Sector net debt
Chart 32: S&P credit metric: Operating balance as % of revenue
AUDbn
14%
65
Adj Operating balance as % of adjusted
operating revenues
FY16
60
55
The AAA rating with stable outlook was unaffected by the 2015-16 budget.
S&P noted that budgetary performance will be slightly weaker due to the
softer revenue growth profile. Projections for budgetary performance and
debt are consistent with AAA rating.
In 2015-16 NSWTC plans to issue AUD4-5bn of fixed rate benchmark lines and
AUD1-2bn of FRNs. With legislation liming NSWTC to only lend to entities
that are 100% owned, the sale of ‘poles and wires’ will reduce borrowings by
AUD15.7bn (currently at AUD50bn).
MYBR 15
12%
FY15 MYBR
FY14-15
10%
50
Budget 15-16
8%
45
6%
40
35
S&P Operating balance
scoring threshold
4%
30
2%
25
0%
20
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2011
2018-19
Chart 33: NSWTC borrowing programme
7.0
New financing
Borrowing programme
5.0
5.00
4.0
3.00
3.0
1.00
2.0
Pre-funding
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
AUDbn
6.0
7.00
-1.00
2013
Chart 34: NSWTC term bonds outstanding as at early Aug 2015
AUDbn
9.00
2012
Refinancing
issuance as at
30 Jun 2015
issuance FYTD
1.0
0.0
-3.00
-1.0
-5.00
FY 15
FY 16 (e)
FY 17 (f)
Source: NSW budget papers; NSWTC; NAB
FY 18 (f)
FY 19 (f)
11
Net exports still subdued, but AUD depreciation is starting to help export demand
Nevertheless, AUD appreciation is starting to have an impact on export
demand, particularly for services such as tourism. Short-term visitor arrivals
to NSW have been steadily increasing (Chart 36).
Chart 35: NSW Net Trade (AUD millions, 3mma)
500
-500
Chart 36: Short-term visitors – state where most time spent
250
150
-2500
Queensland
100
Victoria
50
0
2001
-1500
New South
Wales
200
Thousands
Soft economic conditions interstate and internationally has kept demand for
NSW exports relatively subdued. Meanwhile, moderate improvement in
domestic demand has supported imports, weighing on the state’s net trade
position (Chart 35).
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Chart 37: Composition of employment & GVA
-3500
-4500
-5500
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Top export destinations, NSW, 12-month average to May 2015
Value of imports ($m)
Value of exports ($m)
1
Japan
9289
1
2
China
5723
2
EU
19264
3
ASEAN
3592
3
ASEAN
13013
4
Korea
3292
4
US
11245
5
US
2880
6
Taiwan
2164
5
Japan
6318
7
New Zealand
2044
6
Germany
5004
8
EU
1783
7
Korea
4849
9
India
1327
8
Singapore
2965
9
UK
2780
10 HK
730
11 UK
12 Singapore
13 Germany
China
27084
681
10 New Zealand
2473
452
128
11 Taiwan
2111
Source: ABS; NAB Economics
12 HK
518
Other services
Arts
Health
Education
Public admin
Admin services
Business services
Rental services
Finance
Communications
Transport
Hospitality
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Construction
Utilities
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
Employment
GVA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
12
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