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CH7 7.3 For each of the following change, indicate whether a confidence interval for will become longer or shorter: a. An increase in the level of confidence b. An increase in the sample size. c. A decrease in the level of confidence. d. A decrease in the sample size. 7.11 In an article in Accounting and Business Research, Carslaw and Kaplan investigate factors that influence “audit delay” for firms in New Zealand. Audit delay, which is defined to be the length of time (in days) from a company’s financial year-end to the date of the auditor’s report, has been found to affect the market reaction to the report. This is because late reports seem to often be associated with lower returns and early reports seem to often be associated with higher returns. Carslaw and Kaplan investigated audit delay for two kinds of public companies—owner-controlled and manager-controlled companies. Here a company is considered to be owner controlled if 30 percent or more of the common stock is controlled by a single outside investor ( an investor not part of the management group or board of directors). Otherwise, a company is considered manager controlled. It was felt that the type of control influences audit delay. To quote Carslaw and Kaplan: Large external investors, having an acute need for timely information, may be expected to pressure the company and auditor to start and to complete the audit as rapidly as practicable. a. Suppose that a random sample of 100 public owner-controlled companies in New Zealand is found to give a mean audit delay of x 82.6 days with a standard deviation of s 32.83 days. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean audit delay for all public owner-controlled companies in New Zealand. b. Suppose that a random sample of 100 public manager-controlled companies in New Zealand is found to give a mean audit delay of x 93 days with a standard deviation of s 37.18 days. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean audit delay for all public manager-controlled companies in New Zealand. c. Use the confidence intervals you computed in parts a and b to compare the mean audit delay for all public owner-controlled companies versus that of all public manager-controlled companies. How do the means compare? Explain. 7.21 In its October 7, 1991, issue, Fortune magazine reported on the rapid rise of fees and expenses charged by various types of mutual funds. As stated in the article: a. Suppose the average annual expense for a random sample of 12 stock funds is 1.63 percent with a standard deviation of 0.31 percent. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the mean annual expense charged by all stock funds. Assume that stock fund annual expenses are approximately normally distributed. b. Suppose the average annual expense for a random sample of 12 municipal bond funds is 0.89 percent with a standard deviation of 0.23 percent. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the mean annual expense charged by all municipal bond funds. Assume that municipal bond fund expenses are approximately normally distributed. c. Use the 95 percent confidence intervals you computed in parts a and b to compare the average annual expense for stock funds with that for municipal bond funds. How do the averages compare? Explain. 7.29 Referring to Exercise7.11a(page 267), regard the sample of 100 public owner controlled companies for which s 32.83 as a preliminary sample. How large a random sample of public owner-controlled companies is needed to make us a. 95 percent confident that x , the sample mean audit delay, is within four days of , the true mean audit delay? b. 99 percent confident that x is within four days of ? 7.47 In the book Cases in Finance, Nunnally and Plath present a case in which the estimated percentage of uncollectible accounts varies with the age of the account. Here the age of an unpaid account is the number of days elapsed since the invoice date. Suppose an accountant believes the percentage of accounts that will be uncollectible increases as the ages of the accounts increase. To test this theory, the accountant randomly selects 500 accounts with ages between 31 and 60 days from the accounts receivable ledger dated one year ago. The accountant also randomly selects 500 accounts with ages between 61 and 90 days from the accounts receivable ledger dated one year ago. a. If 10 of the 500 accounts with ages between 31 and 60 days were eventually classified as uncollectible, find a point estimate of and a 95 percent confidence interval for the proportion of all accounts with ages between 31 and 50 days that will be uncollectible. b. If 27 of the 500 accounts with ages between 61 and 90 days were eventually classified as uncollectible, find a point estimate of and a 95 percent confidence interval for the proportion of all accounts with ages between 61 and 90 days that will be uncollectible. c. Based on these intervals, is there strong evidence that the percentage of accounts aged between 61 and 90 days that will be uncollectible is higher than the percentage of accounts aged between 31 and 60 days that will be uncollectible? Explain. CH8 8.3 Define each of the following: a. Type I error b. Type II error c. d. 8.15 Explain what a p-value is, and explain how it is used to test a hypothesis.. 8.31 THE BANK CUSTOMER WAITING TIME CASE Letting be the mean waiting time under the new system, we found in Exercise 8.8(page 304) that we should test H 0 : 6 versus H a : 6 in order to attempt to provide evidence that is less than six minutes. The random sample of 100 waiting times yields a sample mean of x 5.46 minutes and a sample standard deviation of s 2.475 . Moreover, Figure 8.6 gives the MINITAB output obtained when we use the waiting time data to test H 0 : 6 versus H a : 6 . On this output the label “SE Mean,” which stands for “the standard error of the mean,” denotes the quantity s n , and the label “Z” denotes the calculated test statistic. a. Use rejection points to test H 0 vs H a at each of 0.10,0.05,0.01 and 0.0001 b. Calculate the p-value and verify that it equals 0.0146(0.015 rounded), as shown on the MINITAB output. Use the p-value to test H 0 vs H a at each of 0.10,0.05,0.01 and 0.0001 . c. How much evidence is there that the new system has reduced the mean waiting time to below six minutes? Figure 8.6 MINITAB Output of the Test of H 0 : 6 versus H a : 6 in the Bank Customer Waiting Time Case Test of mu = 6.000 vs mu < 6.000. The assumed sigma = 2.47 Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean Z P WaitTime 100 5.460 2.475 0.247 -2.18 0.015 8.89 Suppose we test H 0 : p 0.3 vesus H a : p 0.3 and that a random sample of n = 100 gives a sample proportion pˆ 0.20 a. Test H 0 vs H a at the 0.01 level of significance by using a rejection point. What do you conclude? b. Find the p-value for this test c. Use the p-value to test H 0 vs H a by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.001. What do you conclude at each value of ? 8.69 A consumer electronics firm has developed a new type of remote control button that is designed to operate longer before becoming intermittent. A random sample of 35 of the new buttons is selected and each is tested in continuous operation until becoming intermittent. The resulting lifetimes are found to have a sample mean of x 1,241.2 hours and a sample standard deviation of s 110.8 a. Independent tests reveal that the mean lifetime (in continuous operation) of the best remote control button on the market is 1,200 hours. Letting be the mean lifetime of the population of all remote control buttons that will or could potentially be produced, set up the null and alternative hypotheses needed to attempt to provide evidence that the new button’s mean lifetime exceeds the mean lifetime of the best remote button currently on the market. b. Using the previously given sample results, test the hypotheses you set up in part a by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. What do you conclude for each value of ? c. Suppose that x 1,241.2 and s 110.8 had been obtained by testing a sample of 100 buttons. Test the hypotheses you set up in part a by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. Which sample (the sample of 35 or the sample of 100) gives a more statistically significant result? That is , which sample provides stronger evidence that H a is true? d. If we define practical importance to mean that exceeds 1,200 by an amount that would be clearly noticeable to most consumers, do you think that the result has practical importance? Explain why the samples of 35 and 100 both indicate the same degree of practical importance. e. Suppose that further research and development effort improves the new remote control button and that a random sample of 35 buttons gives x 1,524.6 hours and s 102.8 hours. Test your hypotheses of part a by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. (1) Do we have a highly statistically significant result? Explain. (2) Do you think we have a practically important result? Explain. CH9 9.7 In an article in Accounting and Business Research, Carslaw and Kaplan(1991) study the effect of control (owner versus manager control) on audit delay (the length of time from a company’s financial year-end to the date of the auditor’s report) for public companies in New Zealand. Suppose a random sample of 100 public owner-controlled companies in New Zealand gives a mean audit delay of x1 82.6 days with a standard deviation of s1 32.83 days, while a random sample of 100 public manager-controlled companies in New Zealand gives a mean audit delay of x2 93 days with a standard deviation of s2 37.18 days. Assuming the samples are independent: a. Let 1 be the mean audit delay for all public owner-controlled companies in New Zealand, and let 2 be the mean audit delay for all public manager-controlled companies in New Zealand. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for 1 2 . Based on this interval, can we be 95 percent confident that the mean audit delay for all public owner-controlled companies in New Zealand is less than that for all public manager-controlled companies in New Zealand? If so, by how much? b. Consider testing the null hypothesis H 0 : 1 2 0 versus H a : 1 2 0 . Interpret (in writing) the meaning (in practical terms) of each of H 0 and H a . c. Use a rejection point to test the null hypothesis H 0 : 1 2 0 versus H a : 1 2 0 at the 0.05 level of significance. Based on this test, what do you conclude about how 1 and 2 compare? Write your conclusion in practical terms. d. Find the p-value for testing H 0 : 1 2 0 versus H a : 1 2 0 . Use the p-value to test H 0 and H a by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.025, 0.01, and 0.001. How much evidence is there that 1 is less than 2 ? 9.21 In the book Business Research Methods, Donald R. Cooper and C. William Emory (1995) discuss a manager who wishes to compare the effectiveness of two methods for training new salespeople. The authors describe the situation as follows: The company selects 22 sales trainees who are randomly divided into two experimental groups—one receives type A and the other type B training. The salespeople are then assigned and managed without regard to the training they have received. At the year’s end, the manager reviews the performances of salespeople in these groups and finds the following results: A Group B Group Average Weekly Sales x1 $1,500 x2 $1,300 Standard Deviation s1 225 s2 251 a. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses needed to attempt to establish that type A training results in higher mean weekly sales than does type B training. b. Because different sales trainees are assigned to the two experimental groups, it is reasonable to believe that the two samples are independent. Assuming that the normality assumption holds, test the hypotheses you set up in part a at levels of significance 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. How much evidence is there that type A training produces results that are superior to those of type B? c. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the difference between the mean weekly sales obtained when type A training is used and the mean weekly sales obtained when type B training is used. Interpret this interval. 9.31 On its website, the Statesman Journal newspaper (Salem, Oregon, 1999) reports mortgage loan interest rates for 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgage loans for a number of Willamette Valley lending institutions. Of interest is whether there is any systematic difference between 30-yaer rates and 15-year rates (expressed as annual percentage rate or APR) and, if there is , what is the size of that difference. Table 9.3 displays mortgage loan rates and the difference between 30-year and 15-year rates for nine randomly selected lending institutions. Assuming that the population of paired differences is normally distributed: a. Set up the null and alternative hypotheses needed to determine whether there is a difference between mean 30-year rates and mean 15-year rates. b. Figure 9.9 gives the MINITAB output for testing the hypotheses that you set up in part a. Use the output and rejection points to test these hypotheses by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. How much evidence is there that mean mortgage loan rates for 30-year and 15-year terms differ? c. Figure 9.9 gives the p-value for testing the hypotheses that you set up in part a. Use p-value to test these hypotheses by setting equal to 0.10, 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. How much evidence is there that mean mortgage loan rates for 30-year and 15-year terms differ? d. Calculate a 95 percent confidence interval for the difference between mean mortgage loan rates for 30-year rates versus 15-year rates. Interpret this interval. Lending Institution 30-Year 15-Year Difference American Mortgage N.W. Inc. 6.715 6.599 0.116 City and Country Mortgage 6.648 6.367 0.281 Commercial Bank 6.740 6.550 0.190 Landmark Mortgage Co. 6.597 6.362 0.235 Liberty Mortgage, 6.425 6.162 0.263 MaPS Credit Union 6.880 6.583 0.297 Mortgage Brokers, Inc. 6.900 6.800 0.100 Mortgage First Corp. 6.675 6.394 0.281 Silver Eagle Mortgage 6.790 6.540 0.250 Inc. Figure9.9 MINITAB Output of a Paired Difference t Test of the Mortgage Loan Rate Data in Table 9.3 Paired T-Test and CI: 30-Year, 15-Year Paired T for 30-Year - 15-Year N Mean StDev SE Mean 30-Year 9 6.7078 0.1463 0.0488 15-Year 9 6.4841 0.1840 0.0613 Difference 9 0.2237 0.0727 0.0242 95% CI for mean difference: (0.1677, 0.2796) T-Test of mean difference = 0 (vs not = 0): T-Value = 9.22 P-Value = 0.000 9.47 Consider the display panel situation in Exercise 9.38, and let A , B , and C represent the mean times to stabilize the emergency condition when using display panels A, B, and C, respectively. Figure 9.15 give the MINITAB output of a one-way ANOVA of the display panel data in Table 9.9 (page 372) a. Test the null hypothesis that A , B , and C are equal by setting 0.05 . On the basis of this test, can we conclude that display panels A, B, and C have different effects on the mean time to stabilize the emergency condition? b. Consider the pairwise differences A B , A C , B C . Find a point estimate of and a Tukey simultaneous 95 percent confidence interval for each pairwise difference. Interpret the results by describing the effects of changing from using each display panel to using each of the other panels. Which display panel minimizes the time required to stabilize the emergency condition? c. Find an individual 95 percent confidence interval for each pairwise difference in part b. Interpret the results. Display panel study data ( time, in seconds, required to stabilize air traffic emergency condition) Display Panel A B C 21 24 40 27 21 36 24 18 35 26 19 32 Figure 9.15 MINITAB Output of a One-Way ANOVA of the Display Panel Study Data In Table 9.9 One-way ANOVA: Time versus Display Tukey's pairwise comparisons Analysis of Variance for Time Critical value = 3.95 Source DF SS MS F Display 2 500.17 250.08 Error 9 74.75 8.31 Total 11 574.92 P Intervals for (column level mean) –(row level mean) A 30.11 0.000 B B -1.692 9.692 C -16.942 -20.942 -5.558 -9.558 Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level N Mean StDev A 4 24.500 2.646 B 4 20.500 2.646 C 4 35.750 3.304 --+---------+---------+---------+---(-----*----) (----*-----) (-----*----) --+---------+---------+---------+---Pooled StDev = 2.882 18.0 24.0 30.0 36.0