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Preliminary Report on Communicable Diseases Risk Assessment and Interventions after Sichuan Earthquake Contents I. Background .................................................................................................................................. 2 II. Historical overview on communicable diseases in Sichuan province and the severely affected areas. .................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Historical overview on communicable diseases in Sichuan province ................................... 4 2. Historical overview on communicable diseases in 21 severely affected counties ................ 5 III. Risk factors for increased communicable disease burden .................................................... 5 IV. Risk assessment of main communicable diseases ................................................................... 6 1. Waterborne and food-borne diseases................................................................................. 6 2. Respiratory and close contact transmitted diseases ........................................................... 7 3. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases ................................................................................ 10 4. Risks of other diseases .................................................................................................... 13 V. Post-earthquake disease surveillance and control ................................................................... 6 1. Strengthen the protection of water source and drinking water safety ............................. 15 2. Maintain adequate food supply and food safety .............................................................. 15 3. Shelter planning and assessment ..................................................................................... 15 4. Strengthen the monitoring and control of vectors ........................................................... 16 5. Strengthen health education ............................................................................................ 16 6. Strengthen disease surveillance and outbreak control ..................................................... 16 7. Resume the basic public health service ........................................................................... 17 8. Strengthen case management .......................................................................................... 18 At 14:28 on 12 May 2008, a magnitude 8.0 (Richter scale) earthquake struck Sichuan province of China, causing heavy casualties, serious collapse of buildings, destruction of roads and tremendous economic losses. This report is to provide guidance for taking more effective actions to prevent and control communicable diseases after the earthquake through analyzing the risk factors related to infectious disease outbreak in earthquake-affected areas in Sichuan province. I. Background The epicenter was located in the county of Wenchuan in the Ngawa Prefecture, and the worst affected areas are central and northern Sichuan (Ngawa, Mianyang, Deyang, Chengdu, Guangyuan and Ya'an Perfecture), some areas in Gansu and Shaanxi were also affected. As of 12:00 on 2 Jun 2008, 69,019 people were reported dead, 373,573 people were reported injured and 18,627.were reported missing. Additionally, over 84,000 injured people have been hospitalized after the quake. Among them, around 54,000 have been discharged from hospitals, 16,000 still remain in hospitals and over 6,000 were transferred to other parts of China for treatment. An estimated 5 million buildings have collapsed, and more than 21 million buildings were damaged in the earthquake-affected areas. The earthquake destroyed over 25 million homes and has resulted in about 15 million people internally displaced, with the total affected population of 45.61 million (see the figure below for the severely affected areas in Sichuan province). The earthquake has caused heavy casualties of people and live stock, leaving the basic health facilities and the ecological environment seriously damaged in Sichuan, one of the most populous provinces in China. The roads and railways in the disaster areas were destroyed; the water and power supply in the severely affected areas were interrupted; the systems of public health, medical care and health inspection were severely affected with many hospitals, clinics and pubic health facilities being damaged seriously. The maintenance of water and food safety, environment hygiene, basic health service and infectious disease control are all facing serious challenges. 2 China CDC, May-2008 The overview of Wenchuan earthquake: Deaths Deaths in in Sichuan Sichuan Province Province Main Areas Affected by Wenchuan Earthquake, Sichuan Province 5,000 至 16,000 (4) 1,000 至 5,000 (5) 100 至 1,000 (3) 0至 100 (172) Songpan Songpan Time: May 12 2008 Magnitude: 8 Epicenter:Wenchuan County Abaqiangzu Abaqiangzu Qingchuan Qingchuan Pingwu Pingwu Heishui Heishui Guangyuan Guangyuan Mianyang Mianyang Maerkang Maerkang Beichuan Beichuan Jianyou Jianyou Jiange Jiange Maoxian Maoxian Anxian Anxian Lixian Lixian Total casualties in the whole country (as of June 2) Total deaths: 69019 Xiaojinxian Xiaojinxian Total injured: 373573 Number of people missing: 18627 People hospitalized:84810 People discharged: 54374 Number of builds damaged: Ganzizangzuzizhizhou Ganzizangzuzizhizhou 21,000,000 People displaced: 15,006,314 Accumulated population affected: 45,612,765 Deaths and Injured in Affected Mianzhu Mianzhu Shifang Shifang Wenchuan Wenchuan Pengzhou Pengzhou Provinces Deyang Deyang Dujiangyan Dujiangyan Pixian Pixian Chongzhou Chongzhou Dayixian Dayixian Baoxing Baoxing Lushan Lushan Chengdu Chengdu Yaan Yaan Ziyang Ziyang China CDC, June 3, 2008 China CDC, June 3, 2008 Province Deaths Injured Sichuan 68467 354045 Gansu 365 N/A Shanxi 122 2984 Chongqing 18 N/A Suining Suining Henan 2 7 Yunnan 1 51 Hubei 1 14 Guizhou 1 15 Hunan 1 N/A Meishan Meishan 3 China CDC, May-2008 After the quake, the infectious diseases prevention and control was already given the top priority by the Ministry of Health, at the same time efforts were centered on treating the injured victims in the affected areas. The Ministry of Health has transferred over 5000 public health workers and health inspection professionals from 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) to the disaster areas in Sichuan. Currently the public health actions including maintaining the drinking water safety, environment hygiene, disinfection and disinfestation have been taken. The public health assessment in the internally displaced people have begun, the infectious disease and public health emergency reporting and the syndromic surveillance information cell phone reporting system have been established, the various preventive measures are being implemented and the health inspection, disease control and medical care systems are being recovered. The responsibilities has been assigned to individual persons so as to achieve the full coverage of the infectious disease prevention and control in all severely affected areas. II. Historical overview on communicable diseases in Sichuan province and the severely affected areas 1. Historical overview on communicable diseases in Sichuan province In the past 10 years the incidence of class A and B infectious diseases in Sichuan province have been higher than the national average level, but the overall situation has been stable. From 2004 to 2007, the annually reported cases of class A, B and C infectious diseases were between 340,000 and 360,000 with incidence slightly higher than the national average level. The main diarrhea and food-borne infectious diseases in Sichuan province are cholera, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases, of which other infectious diarrhea diseases and bacillary dysentery had comparatively higher incidence; the main respiratory infectious diseases are pulmonary TB, measles, pertussis, scarlet fever, mumps, rubella and chicken pox, among which the incidence of TB, mumps and measles was relatively higher. The main vector-borne diseases are Japanese encephalitis, malaria, typhus, kala-azar, tsutsugamushi disease and forest encephalitis; main zoonotic diseases are hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, rabies, brucellosis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, echinococcosis, hepatic fascioliasis and streptococcus suis. The most frequently reported blood born diseases and STDs were AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhea and syphilis with hepatitis B having higher incidence; other diseases are those transmitted through respiratory tract, faecal-oral route or close contacts such as acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and hand foot and mouth disease. The main reported EPI targeted diseases are TB, hepatitis A, hepatitis B, measles, mumps, rubella, Japanese encephalitis and meningococcal meningitis, of which the incidence of measles is higher than national average level. No case reported diseases are plague, SARS, poliomyelitis and diphtheria. The time distribution for class A and B infectious diseases by different transmission routes from 2004 to 2007 indicated that the diarrhea and food borne diseases, zoonotic and vector-borne diseases are going to increase in the summer and autumn season, while the respiratory infectious diseases are going to decrease, and the blood borne diseases and STDs are not obviously affected by seasonality. From 4 January to April 2008, there were a total of 96,223 cases of class A, B and C infectious diseases totally reported in Sichuan, among which 34,441 cases were tuberculosis and 29,642 were hepatitis (hepatitis B: 25,387 cases, hepatitis A: 1,796 cases), accounting for 66.60% of the total reported cases. In addition, other diseases with big incidence number are: mumps (7,038 cases), chicken pox (6,135 cases), bacillary dysentery (4,328 cases), measles (2,351 cases) and rubella (1569 cases). 2. Infectious disease situation in the 21 severely affected counties In recent years, the incidences of infectious diseases in the 21 seriously affected counties have been kept at a stable level. The most frequently reported infectious diseases were still hepatitis B and TB. In addition, the food-borne and diarrhoeal diseases such as bacillary dysentery, hepatitis A and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases were also common. Outbreaks of bacillary dysentery and hepatitis A were reported previously in some counties, and typhoid cases were also reported in individual counties. Amongst the respiratory infectious diseases, measles, mumps and chicken pox are most common, particularly measles. Sporadic cases of zoonotic diseases such as hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, rabies, brucellosis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis and echinococcosis and vector-borne diseases such as Japanese encephalitis, malaria and kala-azar had also been reported. In recent years during summer and autumn, food-borne diseases and diarrhea such as bacillary dysentery and hepatitis A and respiratory infectious diseases such as measles, chicken pox and mumps were very common in most of the counties; outbreaks of above diseases were also reported in some counties before. Although there were cases of zoonotic diseases such as leptospirosis, schistosomiasis and echinococcosis and vector-borne diseases such as Japanese encephalitis, malaria and kala-azar reported before, but no outbreak reported. III. Risk factors for increased communicable disease burden 1. Interruption of access to safe water and sanitation facilities. The disaster has damaged the drinking water supply system and the sanitation facility on a large scale, which can disable disaster victims from access the safe water and food and will increase the risk of waterborne and food borne diseases outbreak such as infectious diarrhoeal diseases, bacillary dysentery, typhoid and hepatitis A. 2. Population displacement with overcrowding. After the original housing were destroyed, a large number of population will be internally displaced in shelters and relief centers where can be very crowded so as to increase the close contact among the population. The populations are at immediate and high risk from the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases and overcrowding related diseases such as measles, acute infectious respiratory diseases, TB, meningitis and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. 3. Increased exposure to disease vectors. The earthquake can cause big changes to the habitats for animals and vectors. The rescuing and relief activities and displacement of populations can result in increased exposure to disease carrying vectors and animals, increasing the risk of mosquito-borne, rodent-borne and tick-borne diseases such as malaria, Japanese encephalitis, plague, leptospirosis, lyme disease and some tick borne rickettsia. 5 4. The increased population movements. The movement of disaster victims and rescuers will also raise the risk of disease transmission; even bring new pathogens into the affected areas, increasing the risk of disease outbreak and transmission. 5. The increased susceptibility to disease. After the disaster, due to the difficulty of food supply and changes of living habits, the affected population particularly the infants and children, pregnant women and the elderly will be more vulnerable to malnutrition. Malnutrition with the combination of physical and psychological impacts compromises natural immunity, leading to more frequent, severe and prolonged episodes of infections, in particular the infection of conditioned pathogens or acute attacks by chronic infections. Under such circumstances, patients with serious conditions are more difficult to treat, meanwhile, severe malnutrition often masks symptoms and signs of communicable diseases, making prompt clinical diagnosis and early treatment even more difficult. 6. Poor access to health services. The earthquake severely destroyed or overwhelmed the health infrastructure and medical service system, which hampers the disaster victims to access the health services timely, although the government has provided a large quantity of health resources for the affected areas. At the same time, national immunization program and other infectious diseases control program such as the free treatment for TB patients will also be affected even disrupted, contributing an increased burden of infectious diseases. IV. Risk assessment of main infectious diseases 1. Waterborne and food-borne diseases The common waterborne and food-borne diseases are cholera, hepatitis A, typhoid/paratyphoid fever, bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases. According to historical records, there are reports about the infectious diarrhoeal diseases caused by Salmonella and norovirus occurring after disasters in some countries. For example, after the 2005 earthquake in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, acute watery diarrhoeal disease broke out in a refugee camp accommodating 1800 people, of which 750 people were infected. In 1976 after the Tangshan earthquake in China, there was an epidemic of bacillary dysentery. (1) The cases reported Cholera is a type A infectious disease as specified by the Law on Prevention and Control of Communicable Diseases of PRC and the International Health Regulations on quarantine infectious diseases. The disease is characterized by acute attacks, fast transmission and severe symptoms. It may lead to death by serious dehydration, circulatory failure and muscle spasm if not treated promptly. From 2004 to 2007, Sichuan reported a total of 38 cholera cases; while in severely affected disaster areas, 12 were from Anxian County (6 cases in 2005, 6 in 2006), 10 from Wenjiang County (2004) and 1 from Chongzhou City (2005). Hepatitis A is a kind of acute infectious disease which is transmissible through the fecal-oral route that may severely damage the liver. Contaminated food, water or close contact are common methods of transmission. From 2004 to 2007, In Sichuan province, there were 10,146 reported cases in 2004 and 7261 cases in 2007, showing a downward trend year by year. From 2004 to 2007, Sichuan reported 15 hepatitis A outbreaks, none of which occurred in the 21 most seriously affected areas. From the 6 1st to the 18th week of 2008, the number of reported cases of hepatitis A was lower than that during the same period of 2007. However, the Ngawa prefecture had an increased incidence in the 12th week, and Maoxian County reported a small scale outbreak. The typical clinical symptom of typhoid/paratyphoid fever is persistent high fever, roseola, comparatively slower pulse, enlargement of liver and spleen and malaise. Young adults and school children are easily infected. From 2004 to 2007, the province reported a total of 4,029 cases with annual cases ranging between 325 and 1254, showing a downward trend and making Sichuan one of the provinces with the lowest incidence of typhoid/paratyphoid fever. From 2004 to 2007 the 21 seriously affected areas reported a total of 5 typhoid fever and 11 paratyphoid fever cases, all of which occurred sporadically. From January to April 2008, Lushan County reported 1 typhoid fever case. Bacillary dysentery is a common and frequently occurring disease. From 2004 to 2007, the annual reported cases of bacillary dysentery in Sichuan were between 23,033 and 32,070, ranking in the top 3 provinces for the highest number of cases in the country. There were 38 outbreaks reported, 6 of which occurred in the 21 severely affected areas, and of which 3 were waterborne and other 3 were food-borne. Other infectious diarrhoeal diseases ( i.e. the infectious diarrhoeal diseases other than cholera, dysentery and typhoid/paratyphoid fever) are enteritis which are mainly caused by Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Vibrio, Campylobacter jejuni, Yersinia enterocolitis, Rotavirus, and Norovirus, etc. From 2004 to 2007, Sichuan reported 36,483 to 48,624 cases annually of other infectious diarrhoeal diseases, ranking either fifth or sixth in the country, with fatal cases reported each year and 16 outbreaks. From 2004 to 2007, other infectious diarrhoeal diseases were also reported in the 21 severely affected areas and with higher incidence in summer and autumn. (2) The post-disaster impact and the risk of disease outbreak The seriously damaged water supply and sanitation facilities will largely increase the risk of water and food contamination, and the movement and concentrated living conditions of disaster victims and rescuers will result in overcrowding and close contacts. The summer and autumn are the two seasons that diarrhoeal diseases will happen most frequently, and poor hygiene conditions in the disaster areas due to the difficulty in disposing feces and waste properly will help flies to breed in large quantities. These factors will significantly increase the risks for the outbreak of waterborne and food-borne diseases. Once an outbreak occurs, it is very difficult to control transmission because the crowded shelters with poor healthcare facilities provide favorable conditions for transmission. Based on the above analysis, the risks for the outbreak of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases is very high (++++), and in the meantime the risk of increased cases and even a small scale outbreak of cholera, hepatitis A and typhoid/paratyphoid fever will be high (++~+++). 2. Respiratory and close contact transmitted diseases After the earthquake, the affected population and the rescue personnel live in overcrowded settlements, leading to increased close contact among people, and thus raising the risk of infection. For example, a population with lower immunization coverage and residing in crowded areas are more easily infected by measles. Crowding may also facilitate the transmission of TB and meningitis; and it can also 7 cause many occurrences of acute respiratory infections, hand foot and mouth disease and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis. (1) Acute respiratory infections The acute upper respiratory infection is very common and can be caused by any of the following: flu virus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, Adenoviruses, rhinovirus, Mycoplasma, Chlamydia, pneumococcus, haemophilus influenzae, streptococcus and Staphylococcus Aureus, etc. The main symptoms are fever, coughing and sore throat and can easily break out in crowded places, particularly during the change of seasons. Failing to provide prompt treatment, it may spread to the lower respiratory tract and cause bronchitis and pneumonia accompanied with severe symptoms. The acute lower respiratory infections, particularly pneumonia, are the main cause responsible for the death of children under 5 years old. Currently, no comprehensive acute respiratory infection surveillance system has been set up in China and thus the basic incidence level cannot be determined. After the disaster, many victims and rescuers live in temporary shelters with poor conditions, high population density and poor ventilation. Some victims and rescuers are still sleeping outside. Recently the disaster areas have been experiencing violent climate changes with the alternation of rainy and sunny weather and dramatic changes in temperature, which can easily contribute to the occurrence of acute respiratory diseases. Therefore, the risk of the occurrence and spread of the acute respiratory infections among the disaster victims and rescuers living in the shelters will be very high(+++), particularly acute infections in the form of the common cold and those caused by bacteria (2) Measles The annual incidence of measles in Sichuan during the last 10 years is around 10/100,000, but since 2004, it has seen a continuous rise. In 2007, the reported number of cases and incidence ranked second in the country with 83.8% of the cases occurring in children under 15. Sichuan has successfully implemented two supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in September 2007 and March 2008 successively, covering children aged 8 months to 14 years old in the whole province. The severely affected disaster areas recently completed SIAs at the end of March 2008. The immediate immunization assessment showed that the coverage rate is above 95%. The measles epidemic has been on a downward trend since April, 2008. Measles is a highly transmissible disease and transmission can not be completely blocked by way of SIAs. The overcrowding of people will increase exposure to the disease, and even small scale transmission among the immunized people is sometimes unavoidable. Measles cases have been identified among the disaster affected population. Generally speaking, the measles cases will continue to be reported given the current living, accommodation and food supply conditions. While small scale outbreaks in some areas is not completely avoidable, however it is unlikely for a large scale outbreak to occur (++). (3) Rubella Sichuan reported 3,513 and 5,280 cases of rubella in 2006 and 2007, which ranked second and third respectively; while the reported incidence ranked tenth in China. Of the severely affected areas, Nagwa prefecture had a higher incidence, but the incidence from January to April this year was significantly lower than last year. The other disaster areas all have a lower incidence during recent years. April to July is the period when the disease frequently occurs and mainly affects children under 15 (89%), while the highest incidence is found amongst 5-9 year old school children. Among adults, it mainly occurs in people aged 20 to 40. 8 Currently it is the period for high incidence of rubella. Taking into consideration the crowding at shelters, poor sanitation conditions, and reports by onsite professionals of rubella cases among the disaster affected population, there is a higher risk of outbreak or transmission among children in the disaster areas (+++). At the moment, concerns should be directed towards female adults aged 20 to 40, with efforts taken to avoid congenital rubella syndrome suffered in pregnancy (+). (4) Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis During 2005 to 2007, Sichuan reported 42 to 126 cases of epidemic meningitis annually with the reported incidence ranking eighth in the country. The disaster stricken cities and prefectures reported lower incidence. The peak time for incidence is between February and April, and then declines gradually after May. After the earthquake, the affected population moved to settlements where the higher density of population and poor sanitation conditions will increase the risk of meningitis. Additionally, historical records show a lower rate of meningitis immunization in the severely affected disaster areas. So based on the above analysis, there may be an occurrence of sporadic meningitis cases and the number of cases may be greater than during the pre-disaster period (++). (5) Mumps Between 2006 to 2007, Sichuan reported about 20,000 mumps cases annually, ranking third and first nationwide, with the reported incidence ranking thirteenth and tenth in the country, respectively. The cases are mainly found among children under 15, and the incidence amongst 4-9 year olds reached above 100/100,000. The peak occurrence time for mumps is between May and August. Currently in the severely affected disaster areas such as Ngawa, Mianyang, Chengdu, and Deyang, the incidence has seen an upward trend. At the moment, it is peak time for mumps (May - August) and the risk is high due to the living and food conditions at the settlements. The immunization professionals deployed in the disaster areas have identified mumps cases among the disaster victims. The recent risk of epidemic mumps will be high (+++). (6) Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) TB is one of the diseases with higher reported incidence in China, while frequently occurring in Sichuan. In 2007, the severely affected disaster area reported incidence of 82.7—152.1/100,000, showing a serious TB situation. The earthquake has caused damages to the TB prevention and treatment facilities at different levels with equipment destroyed, normal services disabled, coupled with other important tasks of disease prevention, altogether leaving the prevention of TB in a stagnant status and the TB patients unattended. The emergency response system for supplying the anti-TB drugs has not been established, so the risk of TB transmission will rise. Non-infectious TB patients may become infectious TB. Meanwhile, the high density of the shelters, the poor hygiene conditions, malnutrition and some mental health factors will also lead to the low level resistance of the affected population. Some latent TB patients will become vulnerable to TB, and the infectious TB patients are likely to infect nearby contacts and crowds; therefore there exists a high risk of TB transmission in the disaster areas (+++). (7) Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis The acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis is mainly caused by enterovirus type 70, coxsackie virus type 24 of group A or some types of Adenoviruses and bacteria. Patients are the main source of infection, and people are infected mainly through contacting hands, objects or water which are contaminated by virus. The disease may 9 occur throughout the year and will easily become epidemic in the populous area with poor hygiene conditions. Although it is not very serious or harmful to human health, the disease often causes wide public concern due to its high communicability. From 2004 to 2007, Sichuan reported a total of 11,251 cases. Among them, 8,119 cases were reported in 2007, which is significantly higher than previous years. There were reported cases from the severely affected disaster areas, but in smaller numbers. The disease is highly infectious by fast transmission which can affect all people. During this period, the constant, humid weather, and high temperatures will make it easy for enteric virus to survive. Given the crowded and poor sanitation conditions at the shelters, the disease will be easily transmitted once cases appear. The previous reports from the severely affected disaster areas are in small number, but there is still the possibility of outbreak and transmission of this disease in the crowded shelters. The comprehensive analysis shows a high risk of outbreak (+++). (8) Hand foot and mouth disease HFMD is mainly caused by type 71 enterovirus, group A coxsackie virus and echovirus, which is highly infectious to all people but particularly more so for infants.. Some severe infections may lead to death. This disease is mainly transmitted through the faecal-oral route and/or respiratory droplets. It is also communicable through contact with patient’s skin, blister fluid or contaminated toys or objects. The months from May to September are highest incidence period. This year, HFMD has broken out in some parts in the country. The Ministry of Health has designated it as a national notifiable disease from May 2, 2008, and since then, the number of reported cases has increased significantly in most parts of China. From 2005 to 2007, the total number of reported cases in Sichuan was 1805, with 19 cases, 335 cases and 1451 cases each year respectively, showing an upward trend. The severely affected areas during this earthquake also reported HFMD cases. HFMD is highly infectious, rapidly transmitted, and easily infects children with a high proportion of asymptomatic infections, making it difficult to control. Currently, it is the peak season for HFMD and it may be easily transmitted given the high population density, close contacts and poor hygiene conditions at the settlements. However, the incidence mainly occurs among infants and children. The occurrence and severity of HFMD is closely related to the type of viruses. Overall, the risk of HFMD outbreak during the post-earthquake stage is medium (++). (9) Chicken pox Chicken pox is highly infectious during the 2 days before and 5 days after the rash appears. It has high incidence in spring and winter and easily breaks out among children. Since 2005, there has been a rising trend each year in the number of chicken pox cases reported by Sichuan especially in Ngawa prefectures. The reported incidence in Ngawa prefecture was 70/100,000. The disaster affected population live together in a centralized space with high density and poor ventilation conditions. The immunization professionals have identified chicken pox cases among the disaster affected population. The analysis shows a high risk of a small scale outbreak of chicken pox (+++). 3. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases The earthquake and its accompanied consequences have severely damaged the human and animal habitat environment. The bodies of water that have formed after the rain are suitable for the breeding of different vectors. The displacement of the 10 affected population will increase the exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases, leading to the raised possibility of vector-borne diseases. The disaster also caused deaths, migration and abnormal behavior of animals. The large number of rescuers entering the affected area are not only susceptible to diseases but may be also pathogen carriers themselves. The post-disaster changes to certain main factors such as environment, hosts, vectors and susceptible population will affect the occurrence of animal-source diseases in a comprehensive way, and the main risks of epidemic outbreak will largely depend on if the area is the epidemic foci and its active level. (1) Plague All of the severely affected counties and districts are not within the scope of our identified plague epidemic foci. The earthquake has destroyed the living environment of the rodents, which may lead to the massive migration or abnormal assembly of rodent animals. After the disaster, a large number of rescuers and disaster affected population have to camp outside, and then will be gradually accommodated in camps for rather a long time, increasing the possibility of contacts with rodent animals and flea bites. In some severely affected disaster areas, there exist some plague host animals such as marmots, which should be given sufficient vigilance even though no plague cases have been discovered during the long-term surveillance. The analysis shows there is a low risk of plague occurrence in the severely affected disaster areas (+). (2) Anthrax In 2007, Sichuan reported 135 anthrax cases, the Ngawa prefecture, which was heavily stricken by the earthquake, had been one of the prefectures with more cases reported in recent years. From January to April this year, the prefecture reported 15 cases and became the area with most reported cases. Some sporadic cases were also found in Songpan County, another severely affected disaster area. The anthrax spores can survive in the soil for many years, and contaminated soil may have been re-exposed by the earthquake and rescue activities, resulting in the increased risk of occurrence of the disease. The consumption of diseased animals or infected animal milk that is not thoroughly cooked or boiled may also lead to the occurrence of disease. The comprehensive analysis shows a medium risk of an anthrax epidemic (++). (3) Encephalitis B From 2005 to 2007, the annually reported cases in Sichuan were between 600 and 1199 with the reported incidence ranking between second to fourth in China. The severely affected disaster areas have reported low incidence during the recent years. The cases are mostly found among children under 15, of which children aged 0 to 6 years accounted for 75 – 81% of the total. The peak incidence season is from the end of June to the end of August. The climate of high temperatures and rain following the earthquake will create an ideal environment for mosquitoes to breed in large quantities. The affected population staying in the camps or other temporary settlements are easily exposed to insect bites. The disaster area has low immunization coverage, and the rescuers from the non-Encephalitis B epidemic areas are more vulnerable to infection. The severely affected disaster area is not a pig production base and the number of pigs which could be disease hosts were further reduced due to the earthquake. These circumstances combined with epidemic historical records, we expect a slight possibility of an Encephalitis B epidemic apart from some sporadic cases. Currently, overall vaccination has been carried out among children aged 8 months to 6 years. 11 The low risk of disease occurrence will be maintained if the vaccination rate is high enough (+). (4) Dengue fever In 2007, there were 539 cases reported in China, mainly in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. The major vector for dengue fever, Aedes Eegypti, is not found in Sichuan, but there exists a second vector, Aedes albopictus. There has not been any dengue fever epidemic locally apart from some individual cases imported from foreign countries, so the post disaster epidemic risk is low (+). (5) Rabies In recent years, Sichuan saw a rapid growth in the number of rabies cases. The province reported 372 cases in 2007, but most of which were located in eastern parts of Sichuan. Cases were also reported in the severely-affected disaster areas, including Dujiangyan, Pengzhou, Shifang, Pixian, Dayi, Chongzhou and Wenjiang. In 2007, Dujiangyan reported 6 cases, Pengzhou 4 cases, Shifang 1 case; while no other cases were reported from other heavy disaster areas. The earthquake will increase the number of stray dogs and the coexistence of humans with dogs. The closer contact between humans and dogs may result in a greater likelihood of humans being bitten. Given the conditions, cases of rabies are inevitable, but post disaster epidemic risk is low (+). (6) Human infected streptococcus suis In 2005, cases of the disease were reported in Ziyang and in regions of Sichuan province, after which the incidence fell remarkably. In 2007, the whole province reported only 8 cases located in Chengdu and Ziyang while no cases were found in the severely-affected disaster areas. The disease is mainly transmitted through broken skin coming into contact with infected or dead pigs and is commonly related to occupational behavior. Most of the earthquake stricken areas are not a production base of pigs. Furthermore, the earthquake will have decreased pig population, reducing contact between humans and pigs and lowering the risk of infection while minimizing the possibility of disease outbreak. Post disaster epidemic risk will be low (+). (7) Leptospirosis Sichuan had been the province with the most cases of leptospirosis in China, but recently incidence of this disease has been brought under control. In 2007, 195 cases were reported and mainly found in low-lying rainy areas of Southwest Sichuan. The disease is not common in higher altitude areas, which is characteristic of the severely-affected earthquake disaster areas. The major risks are dependent on contact with contaminated water, thus occurrence of leptospirosis is largely related to floods and paddy field labor. Most disaster areas are located in the mountains which already had low incidence prior to the earthquake, so post disaster risk of disease outbreak is low (+). (8) Renal syndrome hemorrhagic fever (RSHF) In 2007, Sichuan reported 114 RSHF cases. The severely-affected disaster areas, including Beicuan, Jiangyou and Anxian had reported cases prior to the earthquake. However, the post-disaster influx and behavior of rodents may increase the exposure of human beings to rodents and their feces. The estimated risk of outbreak will not be high after the quake (++). (9) Malaria Sichuan was previously one of the major malaria epidemic zones in China, but it has experienced a decrease in incidence in the past 20 years. From 2004 to 2007, the province reported altogether 1747 cases, ranking Sichuan as one of the provinces with 12 the lowest incidence of malaria. The severely-affected disaster areas reported a low number of cases in recently years, some of which were imported, therefore the number of local infectious focus is less. But malaria is capable of relapse and fast transmission, and due to the overcrowding of people and lack of protective measures against mosquitoes, there still exists some risk for the occurrence of malaria. The transmission risk of malaria post-earthquake ranges will be from low to medium (+) - (++). (10) Kala-azar From 2004 to 2007, the whole province reported 222 cases of kala-azar. The most severely-affected disaster counties and districts had reported cases in recent years, of which Heishui, Maoxian, Jiuzhaigou, Beichuan, Wenchuan and Lixian are epidemic areas with the largest number of cases occurring in Heishui and Maoxin. In Gansu province, which is located near the earthquake epicenter of Sichuan, there is also an upward trend of kala-azar incidence. From 2004 to 2007 the number of reported cases was 95, 86 and 100 respectively, with the majority of cases found in Wudu, Wenxian, Zhouqu and Diebu County. Kala-azar is an opportunistic infectious disease and the ratio between being infected and the diseased is approximately 9:1. The changes in the environment after the earthquake will increase the number of sand flies and stray dogs, while the disaster affected population living in the camps is poorly protected against sand flies. Furthermore, other factors such as fatigue, malnutrition, which lowers resistance to the disease, and the entry of large numbers of people without immunization and the migration of latent infected people, may cause the incidence of kala-azar to increase and the extension of the epidemic zone (++). (11) Schistosomiasis Sichuan has a low incidence of schistosomiasis with annual reported cases averaging at approximately 400 cases per year since 2004. In the 21 severely-affected disaster areas, 11 were previously epidemic zones of Schistosomiasis, but they have all reached the transmission control standard and no snails positive for schistosomiasis were found. Because of the existing snail population, the difficulty in treating human and animal feces after the disaster and the latent infectious source may cause the snails to reemerge and thereby increase the risk of disease outbreak (+). 4. Risk of other diseases (1) Hepatitis B The 1992 national viral hepatitis serum epidemiological study showed that the surface antigen carrier rate in Sichuan was 10.48% and the hepatitis B infection rate was 65.48% (slightly higher than the national average). The reported cases of hepatitis B from 2005 to 2007 in Sichuan ranked between third to seventh highest in the country, and the incidence ranked ninth to fourteenth highest with an average annual incidence of 103.52/100,000. The hepatitis B virus carriers may have reduced their resistance after having experienced serious psychological trauma, material and property losses and high mental state of emergency, which could lead to acute attack by hepatitis B virus. People injured in the earthquake may require blood transfusions or treatment with blood products, increasing the chance for infection. However, considering the current control of blood products in China, it is believed the risk of disease being transmitted 13 through blood and blood products will be low. Additionally, while the disaster affected population resides in crowded shelters with close contacts between people, hepatitis B is mainly transmitted through blood while there are limited reports of outbreaks occurring due to close contact. The analysis shows a low risk for rising incidence and epidemic of hepatitis B (+). (2) Tetanus Tetanus is an infectious disease, and tetanus spores are found extensively in soil. The tetanus bacterium can infect humans through open wounds or broken skin. The earthquake zone encompasses a vast area of destruction, damaged buildings and injured people. Therefore, the risk of infection among the affected population and rescuers will be medium (++) (3) Avian flu An avian flu epidemic in animals occurred in Sichuan during December 2005. From January to April 2006, Sichuan confirmed 3 avian flu human cases. No cases were reported afterwards. Because the avian influenza virus can survive continually in the environment, the risk for post-earthquake infections can not be overlooked. However, the risk is likely to be low considering the recent disease situation. (+) (4) SARS China and other countries have not reported any SARS cases since 2004. Therefore, the risk of SARS is extremely low (+) – (-). (5) STDs The main risk factors for STDs are sexual contact and unsafe sexual activities such as multiple sexual partners and unprotected sexual intercourse. The most common STDs include syphilis, gonorrhea, AIDS/HIV, condyloma acuminatum, genital herpes and genital tract chlamydia trachomatis. Both syphilis and AIDS/HIV can also be transmitted through blood. In recent years, the incidence of STDs in Sichuan, particularly in the severely-affected disaster areas, is generally at medium level relative to the rest of the country. The earthquake has interfered with the normal ways of living to a large degree. People tend to lower their demand for sex after having experienced serious mental trauma, property loss and while they are in a mental state of emergency. Meanwhile, the diagnosis and treatment of STDs after the earthquake may also be affected. In general, during the emergency response period, there exists a lower risk of STDs (+) However, when the situation has stabilized, the sexual activities and health services to the disaster affected population needs to be further assessed. V. Post-earthquake disease surveillance and control The assessment on health service system of disease control, health inspection and medical care should be taken immediately, and the rebuilding of the medical system shall be included in the general planning of reconstruction, so as to ensure that the regular health service re-operate properly as soon as possible. The post-disaster control should be carried out under the principle of prevention first and evidence-based with emphasizing water, food safety and environment hygiene, personal sanitation and immunization so as to reduce the risk of disease transmission and outbreak. Risk assessment on infectious diseases should be launched immediately for guiding to take more effective actions to prevent the diseases. Recover and strengthen routine surveillance, set up post-disaster emergency monitoring, investigate and identify the cluster cases and cause-unknown cases timely, 14 to early detect and respond to the emergent public health events such as infectious disease outbreaks or food poisoning. 1. Strengthen the protection of water source and drinking-water safety Ensuring uninterrupted provision of safe dring water is the most important preventive measure to minimize the risk of outbreaks of water-borne diseases. In the meantime, the water source for drinking should be well protected from contamination. 1. Make sure the sufficient drinking water can be supplied to the affected populations. It is recommended that each person be supplied with at least 15 to 20 litres of clean water per day. Water collected from sources that might have been contaminated must be boiled or disinfected before drinking. Chlorine is one of the most effective drinking-water disinfectants to prevent nearly all waterborne diseases. After 30 minutes, the residual concentration of active chlorine in the water should be 0.5mg/L, which can be determined by the simple field test kit. 2. The provision of appropriate and sufficient water containers, cooking pots and fuel can reduce the risk of cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases by ensuring that water storage is protected. 2. Adequate sanitation facilities such as latrines and refuse container should be provided and ensured they are far away from water source. The shelters for disaster victims, medical sites and the temporary camps for rescuers shall be key areas for environmental sanitation. The temporary latrines should be well planned and built to ensure the feces properly disposed, if possible the disinfection for feces and vomits of the diarrhoeal patients are recommended. Set up wastes collection points and special persons shall be appointed for timely cleaning and disposing of the wastes. 2. Maintain adequate food supply and food safety Malnourished children are more vulnerable to disease pathogens. Infants from birth to 6 months of age are recommended to be breastfed, and those who are not breastfed are more vulnerable to infection and to developing diarrhoea. Clean and digestible food should be provided to infants aged 6 months or above as supplementary. Attention should be given to maintaining nutrition of nursing mothers. The personal sanitation of both mothers and infants should be highlighted to avoid transmission of diarrhoeal diseases due to bad health habits. Food safety is also to be paid attention. Eat only cooked food and don’t eat raw or not thoroughly cooked food; particularly the aquatic products should be cooked thoroughly before eating. Rotten or spoiled food should not be eaten while fruits must be washed with clean water before consumption. and do not touch food when you are eating the instant food. Utensils should be disinfected by boiling or disinfectant and the utensils for preparing raw and cooked foods must be separated. The food to be served and supplied should be well packed to avoid contamination. 3. Shelter planning and assessment The shelters and sites for the affected populations should be planed to against adverse weather (rainstorm, cyclone); the site should be positioned near to the water source, and where possible on a higher land so it can be easily supplied with water by 15 using the gravity; the land for sheltering sites should have a inclination of 2-4% for easier water discharge, and discharge ditches should also be planed around or on both sides of the site. Avoid too many people staying in one shelter site to prevent overcrowding. Natural ventilation should be considered for tabernacle sites. Easy access to basic health service in each site should be ensured. Strengthen the management of livestock and poultry at the shelter to reduce direct contacts between human and animals. Report and dispose the infected and dead animals and poultries in accordance with relevant guidelines. Assess the risk factors of infectious diseases in the shelter sites including vaccination coverage, nutrition status, food and water safety, environment and personal sanitation, category and prevalence of infectious diseases in the places where sheltering sites located, health service accessibility, disease vectors and personal behavior, for more effective control of diseases. 4. Strengthen the monitoring and control of vectors Monitoring on disease vectors such as rodents, mosquitoes and flies at the sheltering sites should be carried out according to the “Guideline for Vector Surveillance after Wenchuan Earthquake (draft version)” by China CDC. Proper guidance for controlling vectors should be provided to the affected population based on the results from surveillance so as to minimize the risks of vector borne diseases. Residual spray should be instituted in the highly populous environment to reduce breeding of mosquitoes; use bednets and repellents especially recommended when sleeping outside. Be aware of fire when using mosquito coils inside the tents. 5. Strengthen health education Deliver health knowledge to the affected people and rescuers by various channels. Basic messages are: Hand hygiene of thoroughly hand cleaning before eating and after defecation. Do not eat raw food or sick animals; do not eat uncooked meat and dairy products. Defecate only in designated areas and don’t share with others your own towels or basins. Keep shelter and camp ventilated; change clothing when climate changes. Visit a doctor when symptoms of fever, vomiting, bellyache and diarrhea develop. Keep yourself well rested and minimize contacts with others. Cluster cases should be immediately reported to health authorities for rapid response and control of disease. 6. Strengthen disease surveillance and outbreak control Notifiable infectious disease reporting system and event-based public health emergency reporting system should be rebuilt to early identify and rapidly manage the infectious disease outbreaks and public health emergencies. In places where buildings, equipments, people, power supply and communication are severely damaged, the emergency reporting system should be established immediately to enable the information of common syndromes and diseases can be collected quickly for timely detection, identification and management of potential outbreaks. Stockpile medicine and vaccines for outbreak controlling. Set up and launch infectious disease emergency laboratory network at the county 16 and provincial level CDCs as soon as possible. Based on the risk assessment, the laboratory diagnosis of 11 diseases including TB, cholera, typhoid, dysentery, leptospirosis, measles, influenza, encephalitis B, hepatitis A, , hepatitis E, and malaria should be established in the severely affected counties. Sichuan provincial CDC should be responsible for laboratory diagnosis of plague, avian flu (H5N1), enterorrhagia colibacillosis (O157: H7), tick borne rickettsiosis, dengue, poliomyelitis, HFRS, meningococcal meningitis, viral diarrhea (norovirus,rotavirus),streptococcus suis,diphtheria and HFMD. The emergency laboratory at severely affected areas should try to take samples for laboratory confirmation on each suspected TB, malaria and typhoid case. Previous suspected/probable cases of cholera, leptospirosis, hepatitis A, hepatitis E, measles, influenza, Japanese encephalitis and malaria reported in temporary medical sites and shelters should be taken samples for laboratory diagnosis, while not necessary to lab confirm every case. Medical service providers in the affected areas should report suspected and probable cases of plague, avian flu (H5N1) enterorrhagia colibacillosis (O157: H7), acute flaccid paralysis, tick borne rickettsiosis, HFRS, dengue, diphtheria and streptococcus suis upon diagnosis, and send the collected samples to Sichuan provincial CDC for lab confirmation. If any abnormal increasing of viral diarrhea and HFMD cases are detected, samples should be collected and sent to the provincial laboratory for outbreak diagnosis. The distribution of anthrax and Sohistosomiasis natural foci should be idetified and the animal burial places and snail areas should be marked out to avoid direct contact. If vaccine-preventable diseases are found, the emergency mass vaccination campaign should be launched in accordance with the “vaccination guideline for earthquake affected areas” and the vaccination coverage should be achieved as requested. 7. Resume the basic public health service Routine vaccination, maternal and neonatal health services should be recovered as soon as possible when the situation of the affected area become stable. Recover routine vaccination as soon as possible, the temporary vaccination service sites should be established make sure the children of the appropriate age can be properly immunized. The priority should be given to the EPI newly included vaccines. Give vaccination service to the key populations in the sheltering sites, schools and kindergartens in the affected areas setp by step on the basis of diseases risk assessment results. Measures must be taken to ensure that the provision, preservation and transportation of vaccines comply with the relevant requirements. Resume TB and AIDS intervention programs to ensure the continued implementation of case identification, free and standardized treatment. Pulmonary TB patients should be continuously treated and effectively managed in accordance with the relevant requirement under the national Stop TB program. In addition, the destruction of leprosy villages or hospital caused by the earthquake may adversely affect the mental health of the patients, measures should be taken for treatment the mental interference. 17 8. Strengthen case management Regulated treatment must be given to the infectious disease casess or suspected cases according to local available resources to reduce the further transmission of diseases. The controlling of infectious diseases should comply with relevant national guidelines and regulations. Improve the awareness of the community on the infectious diseases to make them understand the importance of early treatment and appropriate case management.in controlling diseases effectively. Enhance the isolation of infectious disease patients in the crowded sheltering sites so as to reduce the transmission of disease due to overcrowding. Additionally, the preventive measures of tetanus must be taken to avoid cross infections or nosocomial infections during rescuing or surgical treatment. Treatment and management of gas gangrene and other diseases should not be neglected. In summary, disease control remains an arduous task in the quake affected areas for a long term. During the displacement of the affected populations, recovery of the public health services and medical facilities still in process, the environment hygiene, water and food safety will face great challenges, with the combination of the factors of increased movement of population, overcrowding, immunity compromised, the occurrence or even outbreak of the diseases such as bacillary dysentery, other diarrhoeal disease, hepatitis A, mumps, chicken pox, influenza, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis and HFMD are still possible. Some areas must be vigilant on the occurrence and potential outbreak of Japanese encephalitis, malaria, kala-azar, leptospirosis, Schistosomiasis, and echinococcosis. The health administrative departments and disease control facilities at the different levels of the disaster areas should take measures not only for the rapid emergency responding but also for the long term containment needs, carry out the risk assessment of the diseases and public health events in a well planed way, set up and improve the coordination, surveillance and monitoring, laboratory testing, emergency response and information communication, adjust and strengthen the strategy to maintain water and food safety, environmental hygiene and vector surveillance, and resume routine immunization program to prevent and manage the communicable diseases outbreak and other public health events scientifically, effectively, orderly and in the regulated way. Strengthen the guidance on disinfection and insecticide spraying to avoid any overmuch, superfluous and inappropriate spraying. Enhance the nosocomial infection control in medical sites, clinics and hospitals. Continue to improve the public awareness of the disease control and improve their prevention knowledges and capacities. Under the leadership of the CPC central committee and the State Council and the governments at all levels, and the supports by the disease control facilities at all levels, we will work together closely to achieve our goal of “no major epidemic after the disaster”. 18 Table 1 Severely affected counties Pixian County Top 10 infectious diseases and other key infectious diseases in the 21 severely affected counties in Sichuan, 2004~2007 Cases of Class A, B, C in the past 4 years (2446) 2004~2007 top ten diseases of reported cases (total cases) 1 2 Hepatitis Diarrhea B (2530) (1804) 3 4 5 Pengzhou City (3184) TB TB mumps (1685) (1103) (1042) mumps Diarrhea (294) (183) Hepatitis bacillary B dysentery (1886) (724) Hepatitis B TB (5959) (2264) (1571) (653) (496) Diarrhea TB Hepatitis B mumps bacillary dysentery (3325) (1980) Du Jiangyan (2515) Chongzhou City (1498) TB (2051) Wenjiang District (1392) (332) Diarrhea gonorrhea (1722) (763) Condylom Hepatitis a bacillary B Acuminat dysentery um (1223) (822) (576) 7 8 9 10 Other diseases under attention Condylom Streptococcus suis、Rabies、 a gonorrhea Hepatitis A syphilis malaria Acuminat um (865) (453) (440) (329) (297) Schistosomiasis 、Rabies 、 Condyloma malaria、JE、 chicken pox Acuminatu gonorrhea Hepatitis A syphilis echinococcosis 、 m Streptococcus suis (175) (128) (113) (83) (69) Condyloma chicken malaria、Schistosomiasis、JE、 Acuminatu syphilis mumps Hepatitis A pox Rabies、echinococcosis m (443) (406) (384) (245) (171) Streptococcus suis、kala-azar malaria、Rabies、kala-azar、 Condyloma Hepatiti gonorrhea Acuminatu syphilis Rubella s A Streptococcus suis、JE、 m echinococcosis (484) (283) (247) (170) (169) Schistosomiasis、Rabies 、 Schistoso Hepatitis urethriti Streptococcus suis、malaria、 Diarrhea gonorrhea miasis untyped s JE bacillary chicken pox dysentery Dayi County (1006) 6 bacillary dysentery (584) mumps (440) Hepatitis B TB Diarrhea mumps gonorrhea (1169) (1019) (944) (594) (369) (346) (267) (243) Condyloma bacillary Acuminatu syphilis dysentery m (346) (246) (182) 19 (154) Hepatitis untyped (148) (136) cholera、Streptococcus suis、 urethriti Rabies、Schistosomiasis 、 s malaria (88) Mianzhu City (2333) Shifang City (1824) Anxian Country Beichuan County Pingwu County Jiangyou City (2115) (648) (765) (6036) Qingchuan County (1069) Lushan (505) Hepatitis B TB (3749) (1954) (778) Hepatitis B TB Diarrhea (1841) (1551) (795) Hepatitis B TB Diarrhea (2366) (1843) TB mumps (769) (595) (1140) Hepatitis B (421) Diarrhea Hepatitis B mumps (644) (584) (571) Hepatitis Diarrhea B (8032) (6544) Hepatitis B TB (1565) bacillary (968) mumps Condylom Hepatiti a mumps gonorrhea s Acuminat untyped um (765) (539) (499) (489) (408) (300) (293) Hepatiti bacillary Hepatitis A gonorrhea chicken pox mumps syphilis s dysentery untyped (520) (410) (303) (244) (192) (192) (173) Condylom bacillary a urethriti chicken pox mumps Hepatitis A gonorrhea dysentery Acuminat s um (1063) (639) (626) (331) (288) (206) (113) bacillary Hepatiti chicken pox Diarrhea measles Rubella gonorrhea dysentery sA (369) (275) (143) (99) (66) (64) (64) Condyloma bacillary conjunct TB chicken pox Acuminatu gonorrhea Hepatitis A dysentery ivitis m (538) (281) (181) (92) (84) (83) (74) Condylom bacillary a chicken pox mumps gonorrhea urethritis syphilis dysentery Acuminat um bacillary Diarrhea chicken pox Hepatitis A dysentery TB (4231) (1231) influenza chicken pox (818) TB (1135) measles (284) (257) chicken pox Hepatitis B JE、Schistosomiasis 、 malaria、kala-azar JE、Schistosomiasis、 kala-azar、Rabies Schistosomiasis 、cholera 、 JE、kala-azar、leptospirosis 、 HFRS、malaria malaria、hemorrhagic fever 、 JE、kala-azar、 JE、kala-azar、 echinococcosis 、malaria cholera、JE、kala-azar、 HFRS、echinococcosis 、 leptospirosis 、 Schistosomiasis 、 malaria、Streptococcus suis bacillary JE、malaria、kala-azar Hepatitis Diarrhea mumps gonorrhea dysenter A y (206) (110) (76) (56) (47) Diarrhea Schistosomi measles leptospirosis Hepatiti leptospirosis 、malaria、JE (1041) 20 (1012) (1003) (554) (538) County Baoxing County Wenchuan Lixian County Maoxian County dysentery (474) (229) (677) (440) (621) Hepatitis B (292) TB TB (376) Xiajin County (455) TB (424) Heishui County (465) (371) mumps TB (261) (219) bacillary TB dysentery (620 (567 bacillary mumps dysentery (538) (489) (653) Songpan County (445) TB (932) (164) Hepatitis B (518) TB asis (289) (286) (74) (71) (70) Condyloma bacillary Hepatitis Diarrhea chicken pox Acuminatu dysentery A m (141) (79) (55) (27) (17) mumps chicken pox Diarrhea (460) (247) (155) HB Diarrhea Hepatitis A (222) (182) (82) (80) bacillary Diarrhea mumps Hepatitis B measles dysentery (530) (482) (275) (198) (159) bacillary mumps Diarrhea Hepatitis B Hepatitis A dysentery (227) (194) (150) (115) (32) bacillary mumps Hepatitis B measles Hepatitis A dysentery (380) (367) (241) (122) (117) bacillary chicken Hepatitis B Diarrhea mumps dysentery pox (434) (131) (115) (61) (60) 21 (61) sA (60) JE、leptospirosis 、 gonorrhea syphilis (17) (7) genital measles gonorrhea Hepatitis A herpes (99) (87) (51) (45) conjunct Rubella measles gonorrhea ivitis (51) (37) (24) (20 Hepatitis Condyloma gonorrh chicken pox A Acuminatum ea (101) (60) (30) (29) urethriti measles gonorrhea Rubella s (27) (15) (10) (7) chicken Diarrhea influenza gonorrhea pox (105) (23) (11) (8) Hepatiti measles influenza gonorrhea sA (58) (51) (50) (42) kala-azar、echinococcosis 、 echinococcosis kala-azar、echinococcosis kala-azar、echinococcosis 、 anthrax anthrax、echinococcosis 、 malaria、 kala-azar、echinococcosis 、 Table 2 Risk assessment of the key infectious diseases in affected areas, Sichuan Diseas Level of risk☆ Bacillary dysentery ++++ Other infectious diarrhea ++++ Cholera +++ Hepatitis A +++ Typhoid and paratyphoid +++ TB +++ Acute upper respiratory tract infection +++ Rubella +++ Mumps +++ Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis +++ Chicken pox +++ Measles ++ Meningococcal meningitis ++ HFMD ++ Anthrax ++ Kala-azar ++ Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome ++ Tetanus ++ Malaria +~++ Plague + HB + Japanese Encephalitis + Leptospirosis + Dengue + Rabies + Schistosomiasis + Streptococcus suis + Avian influenza/H5N1 + Syphilis /gonorrhea + SARS -~+ Diseases and infections not covered in the report Viral diarrhea ++ Pneumonia ++ HE ++ Food poinsoning ++ Tick borne rickettsiosis ++ Gas gangrene ++ HC + Echinococcosis + Brucellosis + Typhus + Poliomyelitis + HIV/AIDS + MRSA + ☆Note the risk level from none to high is presented as “-” none, “+” low, “++” medium, “+++”high risk, “++++” very high risk 22 Attachment Geographical Distribution of Cases of Key Communicable Diseases, in the 21 Severely Affected Counties in Sichuan, 2004~2007 songpan songpan 115 115 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 1,565 1,565 584 584 heishui heishui 115 115 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 2,366 2,366 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 3,749 3,749 1,841 1,841 lixian lixian 182 182 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 8,032 8,032 421 421 maoxian maoxian 198 198 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 518 518 5,959 dujiangyan dujiangyan5,959 1,722 1,722 pixian pixian 2,530 2,530 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang dayi dayi 1,223 1,223 1,169 1,169 724 724 241 241 baoxing baoxing 2004~2007 cumulative number of Hepatitis B cases 5,000 to 8,040 3,000 to 4999 1,000 to 2999 200 to 999 110 to 199 261 261 lushan lushan (2) (1) (7) (7) (4) 286 286 songpan songpan 376 376 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 968 968 538 538 heishui heishui 932 932 maoxian maoxian 653 653 jiangyou jiangyou 4,231 4,231 anxian anxian 1,843 1,843 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 1,954 1,954 1,551 1,551 lixian lixian 222 222 xiaojin xiaojin 424 424 beichuan beichuan 769 769 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 567 567 2,264 2,264 dujiangyan dujiangyan 1,980 1,980 pixian pixian 1,685 chongzhou chongzhou 1,685 w w enjiang 2,051 2,051 enjiang dayi dayi 1,019 1,019 1,886 1,886 baoxing baoxing 164 164 lushan lushan 371 371 23 2004~2007 cumulative number of TB cases 3,000 to 4,240 2,000 to 2999 1,000 to 1999 500 to 999 160 to 499 (1) (2) (7) (6) (5) songpan songpan 27 27 qingchuan qingchuan 257 257 pingw pingwuu 52 52 heishui heishui 58 58 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 159 159 anxian anxian 14 14 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 44 96 96 lixian lixian 37 37 xiaojin xiaojin w wenchuan enchuan baoxing baoxing 11 2004~2007 cumulative number of Measels cases pengzhou pengzhou 99 99 43 dujiangyan dujiangyan 43 58 58 pixian pixian 111 111 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 24 24 dayi dayi 10 10 28 28 122 122 jiangyou jiangyou 58 58 99 99 1 dot = 1 case cumulative number of cases 200 to 257 100 to 199 50 to 99 10 to 49 0 to 9 lushan lushan 70 70 (1) (3) (8) (7) (2) songpan songpan 10 10 qingchuan qingchuan 22 22 pingw pingwuu 42 42 heishui heishui 77 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 21 21 jiangyou jiangyou 75 75 anxian anxian 77 77 lixian lixian 51 51 xiaojin xiaojin 66 66 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 18 18 116 116 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 32 32 107 dujiangyan107 dujiangyan 170 170 pixian pixian 31 31 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 17 17 dayi dayi 77 36 36 55 baoxing baoxing 55 2004~2007 cumulative number of Rubella cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number fo cases 100 to 170 50 to 99 10 to 49 5 to 9 lushan lushan 99 24 (3) (4) (9) (5) songpan songpan 194 194 qingchuan qingchuan 110 110 pingw pingwuu 571 571 heishui heishui 60 60 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 626 626 lixian lixian 489 489 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 1,041 1,041 595 595 maoxian maoxian 275 275 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 489 489 244 244 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 460 460 384 dujiangyan384 dujiangyan 763 763 pixian pixian 1,103 1,103 chongzhou chongzhouw w enjiang enjiang 440 440 dayi dayi 594 594 294 294 380 380 baoxing baoxing 2004~2007cumulative number of Mumps cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 1,000 to 1,110 (2) 500 to 1,000 (5) 200 to 500 (11) 100 to 200 (2) 60 to 100 (1) 219 219 lushan lushan 445 445 songpan songpan 33 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 284 284 281 281 heishui heishui 131 131 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 101 101 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 765 765 303 303 w wenchuan enchuan 88 pengzhou pengzhou 247 247 171 dujiangyan171 dujiangyan 58 58 pixian pixian 1,042 1,042 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 62 62 dayi dayi 58 58 175 175 baoxing baoxing 79 79 jiangyou jiangyou 1,135 1,135 anxian anxian 639 639 lixian lixian 99 xiaojin xiaojin 369 369 2004~2007 cumulative number of Chicken pox cases 1 dot= 1case cumulative number of cases 500 to 1,140 200 to 499 100 to 199 10 to 99 0 to 9 lushan lushan 289 289 25 (4) (6) (4) (4) (3) songpan songpan 11 qingchuan qingchuan 33 pingw pingwuu 11 heishui heishui 11 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 77 anxian anxian 88 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 11 44 w wenchuan enchuan 00 pengzhou pengzhou 00 dujiangyan dujiangyan 55 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 00 00 dayi dayi00 baoxing baoxing 00 jiangyou jiangyou 00 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Meningococcal meninggitis cases 1dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 5 to 8 (3) 2 to 4 (2) 1 (4) 0 (12) lushan lushan 00 songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 99 pingw pingwuu 43 43 heishui heishui 00 maoxian maoxian 22 jiangyou jiangyou 85 85 anxian anxian 24 24 lixian lixian 11 xiaojin xiaojin beichuan beichuan 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 17 17 17 17 w wenchuan enchuan 11 pengzhou pengzhou 11 11 18 dujiangyan 18 dujiangyan 40 40 pixian pixian 86 86 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 10 10 dayi dayi 37 37 41 41 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007cumulative number of Scarlet fever cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 50 to 86 30 to 49 10 to 29 1 to 9 0 lushan lushan 22 26 (2) (4) (6) (5) (4) songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 23 23 pingw pingwuu 74 74 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 78 78 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 77 40 40 lixian lixian 20 20 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 165 165 16 16 maoxian maoxian 44 w wenchuan enchuan 11 pengzhou pengzhou 33 25 dujiangyan 25 dujiangyan 14 14 pixian pixian 39 39 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 99 dayi dayi26 88 26 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007cumulative number of Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 100 to 165 50 to 99 10 to 49 1 to 9 0 lushan lushan 22 (1) (2) (8) (7) (3) songpan songpan 00 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 00 11 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan 66 maoxian maoxian 00 anxian anxian 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 44 00 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 16 16 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 00 dujiangyan dujiangyan 44 11 pixian pixian 66 66 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 22 66 dayi dayi 88 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007cumulative number of Hand foot and mouth disease cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 50 to 66 (1) 10 to 49 (1) 1 to 9 (9) 0 (10) lushan lushan 44 27 songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingw pingwuu 00 heishui heishui 00 maoxian maoxian 00 jiangyou jiangyou 99 anxian anxian 12 12 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin beichuan beichuan 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 00 00 dujiangyan 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 00 10 10 dayi dayi 00 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of cholera cases 1 dot= 1case cumulative number of cases 12 (1) 10 (1) 9 (1) 0 (18) lushan lushan 00 songpan songpan 32 32 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 76 76 83 83 heishui heishui 42 42 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 60 60 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 51 51dujiangyan dujiangyan 245 245 169 169pixian pixian 329 329 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 116 116 75 dayi dayi 75 83 83 117 117 baoxing baoxing 17 17 jiangyou jiangyou 202 202 anxian anxian 331 331 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 499 499 520 520 lixian lixian 80 80 xiaojin xiaojin 62 62 lushan lushan 60 60 28 2004~2007cumulative number of Hepaittis A cases 1 dot= 1case cumulative number of cases 400 to 520 200 to 399 100 to 199 50 to 99 17 to 49 (2) (4) (3) (9) (3) songpan songpan 11 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 22 22 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 33 anxian anxian 55 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 14 14 88 lixian lixian 11 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 88 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan dujiangyan 77 12 12 pixian pixian 12 12 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 10 10 dayi dayi 66 33 11 11 baoxing baoxing 44 2004~2007 cumulative number of Hepatitis E cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 10 to 14 (4) 5 to 9 (5) 1 to 4 (10) 0 (2) lushan lushan 44 songpan songpan 227 227 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 47 47 181 181 heishui heishui 434 434 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 482 482 jiangyou jiangyou 1,231 1,231 anxian anxian 1,063 1,063 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 539 539 192 192 lixian lixian 538 538 xiaojin xiaojin 275 275 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 496 620 620dujiangyan 496 367 367 584 584 pixian pixian 865 865 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 576 576 346 dayi dayi 346 332 332 baoxing baoxing 55 55 lushan lushan 474 474 29 2004~2007 cumulative number of Bacillary dysentery cases 1,000 to 1,240 500 to 999 200 to 499 100 to 199 40 to 99 (2) (6) (9) (2) (2) songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 11 pingw pingwuu 00 heishui heishui 22 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 lixian lixian 11 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 00 00 maoxian maoxian 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 11 11 dujiangyan 11 pixian pixian 44 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang 55 22 dayi dayi 33 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Typhoid fever and Paratyphoid fever cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases lushan lushan 1 to 5 (10) 0 (11) 00 songpan songpan 150 150 qingchuan qingchuan 206 206 pingw pingwuu 644 644 heishui heishui 61 61 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 530 530 jiangyou jiangyou 6,544 6,544 anxian anxian 1,140 1,140 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 778 778 795 795 lixian lixian 82 82 xiaojin xiaojin 143 143 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan1,571 155 155dujiangyan 1,571 105 105 3,325 3,325 pixian pixian 1,804 1,804 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang 346 346 enjiang dayi dayi 944 944 183 183 baoxing baoxing 141 141 lushan lushan 74 74 30 2004~2007 cumulative number of other infectious diarrhea cases 2,000 to 6,550 1,000 to 1999 500 to 999 200 to 499 60 to 199 (2) (3) (5) (2) (9) songpan songpan 22 qingchuan qingchuan 22 pingw pingwuu 22 heishui heishui 24 24 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 11 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 77 22 maoxian maoxian 20 20 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 11 22 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 1 11 dujiangyan 1 44 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 00 00 dayi dayi00 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Kala-azar cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 20 to 30 5 to 19 3 to 4 1 to 2 0 lushan lushan 00 (2) (1) (1) (9) (8) songpan songpan 00 pingw pingwuu qingchuan qingchuan 00 00 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 00 jiangyou jiangyou 11 anxian anxian 104 104 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 22 22 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 00 dujiangyan dujiangyan 13 13 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 243 243 11 dayi dayi 66 00 baoxing baoxing 00 lushan lushan 71 71 31 2004~2007 cumulative number of Schistosomiasis cases 1 dot= 1case cumulative number of cases 100 to 243 (2) 20 to 99 (1) 5 to 19 (2) 1 to 4 (4) 0 (12) songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingw pingwuu 00 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan 00 maoxian maoxian 00 anxian anxian 33 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 11 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 00 dujiangyan 00 dujiangyan 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou wenjiang enjiang 00w dayi dayi 00 00 00 baoxing baoxing 22 2004~2007 cumulative number of Leptospirosis cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 61 (1) 3 (1) 2 (1) 1 (1) 0 (17) lushan lushan 61 61 songpan songpan 22 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingw pingwuu 11 heishui heishui 22 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 11 jiangyou jiangyou 22 anxian anxian 00 lixian lixian 55 xiaojin xiaojin 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 22 11 dujiangyan 11 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang dayi dayi 00 00 11 44 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Echinococcosis cases 1 dot= 1case cumulative number of cases 1 to 5 (11) 0 (10) lushan lushan 00 32 songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 22 pingw pingwuu 77 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan anxian anxian 11 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin jiangyou jiangyou 11 12 12 maoxian maoxian 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 22 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 18 00 dujiangyan 18 77 pixian pixian 11 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang dayi dayi 22 11 22 11 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Malaria cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number fo cases 10 to 18 5 to 9 2 to 4 1 0 lushan lushan 22 (2) (2) (5) (5) (7) songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 12 12 pingw pingwuu 22 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 00 jiangyou jiangyou 77 anxian anxian 12 12 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin 22 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 33 22 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 6 00 dujiangyan 6 11 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w w enjiang enjiang dayi dayi 11 00 11 00 baoxing baoxing 33 2004~2007 cumulative number of Japanese Encephalitis cases 1dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 10 to 12 5 to 9 2 to 4 1 0 lushan lushan 66 33 (2) (3) (5) (3) (8) songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingwuu pingw 00 heishui heishui 00 jiangyou jiangyou beichuan beichuan 22 maoxian maoxian 00 anxian anxian 11 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin 22 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 enchuan wenchuan w pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 0 00 dujiangyan 0 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou enjiang wenjiang w 00 00 dayi 00 dayi 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Hemorrhagic fever w ith renal syndrome cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases lushan lushan 1 to 3 (3) (18) 0 00 songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingw pingwuu 00 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 00 jiangyou jiangyou 00 anxian anxian 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 11 lixian lixian 00 xiaojin xiaojin 00 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 4 00 dujiangyan 4 66 pixian pixian 22 chongzhou chongzhouw w enjiang enjiang 44 dayi dayi 33 33 00 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Rabies cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases lushan lushan 6 (1) 1 to 5 (6) 0 (14) 00 34 songpan songpan 00 qingchuan qingchuan 00 pingw pingwuu 00 heishui heishui 00 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 00 jiangyou jiangyou 00 00 anxian anxian 00 lixian lixian 00 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 00 00 xiaojin xiaojin w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou dujiangyan 00 00 dujiangyan 00 pixian pixian 00 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang 00 dayi dayi 00 00 44 baoxing baoxing 00 2004~2007 cumulative number of Anthrax cases 1 dot = 1case cumulative number of cases 4 (1) 0 (20) lushan lushan 00 songpan songpan 31 31 qingchuan qingchuan 151 151 pingw pingwuu 247 247 heishui heishui 72 72 beichuan beichuan maoxian maoxian 70 70 jiangyou jiangyou 3,288 3,288 anxian anxian 766 766 mianzhu mianzhu shifang shifang 1,092 1,092 880 880 lixian lixian 46 46 xiaojin xiaojin 140 140 w wenchuan enchuan pengzhou pengzhou 1,610 dujiangyan dujiangyan1,610 1,155 1,155 pixian pixian 1,334 1,334 chongzhou chongzhou w wenjiang enjiang dayi dayi 1,386 1,386899 899 379 379 20 20 229 229 baoxing baoxing 59 59 lushan lushan 2004~2007 cumulative number of STD cases 2,000 to 3,290 1,000 to 1999 500 to 999 200 to 499 20 to 199 (1) (5) (3) (5) (7) 68 68 Remark: STD include syphilis, gonorrhea ,Condyloma Acuminatum, genital herpes and genital tract chlamydia trachomatis 35