Download France - Climate Transparency

CLIMATE
ACTION
TRACKER
BROWN TO GREEN:
G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW CARBON ECONOMY
France
This country profile assesses France’s past, present and indications of
future performance towards a low-carbon economy by evaluating
emissions, decarbonisation, climate policy performance and climate
finance. The profile summarises the respective findings from, amongst
others, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI, operated by
Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe), the Climate Action
Tracker (CAT, operated by Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, Ecofys
and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), and analyses
from the Overseas Development Institute (ODI).
Human Development Index
GHG emissions
per capita
Share of global
GHG emissions
0.88
0.82
GDP
per capita
(tCO2e/cap)
G20
average
8.7
7.6
0.9%
0
Share of
global GDP
1
G20
average
G20 average
Source: UNDP, data for 2015
Source: World Bank Indicators, data for 2012
$
2.4%
$
$
$ 31,081
$ 15,071
Source: IEA, data for 2013
7
600
6
500
5
400
4
300
3
200
2
100
Historic emissions
(excluding forestry)
Current policy emissions projections
(excluding forestry)
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
20
20
19
19
19
06
0
02
-100
98
1
94
0
Emissions per capita (tCO2/capita)
700
90
Total emissions (MtCO2e/a)
GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS
Energy-related
CO2 emissions
Energy-related
CO2 emissions per capita
Historic forestry
emissions/removals
G20 average of energy-related
CO2 emissions per capita
Since 1998, France has seen a gradual decline of
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and this reduction
is expected to continue until 2030. France’s
energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
follow a similar trend. Emissions from land use,
land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) remain in
the negative range. CO2 per capita emissions also
decreased from 1990-2011, when they reached 4.8
tCO2, and have stagnated since. The CCPI evaluates
France’s emissions level as medium compared to
the other G20 countries, while a positive trend is
visible.
Composition of
GHG emissions
71%
N O 13%
CH 12%
F-Gases 4%
CO2 *
2
4
CCPI evaluation of emissions level and trend
Level
CO2 emissions
from forestry -11%
Weak trend
very poor
poor
medium
good
very good
Strong trend
*CO2 emissions incl. LULUCF
Source: Annex I countries: UNFCCC (2015);
Non-Annex I countries: IEA (2014)
and CAT (2015)
Sources: Past energy related emissions from the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI); past non-energy and future emissions projections from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
CCPI calculations are primary based on the most recent IEA data; CAT calculations are based on national policies and country communications.
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
France - Country Profile
DECARBONISATION
Energy intensity of the economy
Total Primary Energy Supply per GDP PPP
(MJ per 2005 US dollar)
10
The energy intensity of France’s economy (TPES/GDP) is
below the G20 average and has steadily declined. The
CCPI evaluates the country’s energy intensity as medium.
A positive five-year trend can be observed.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
0
Energy intensity
CCPI evaluation of energy intensity of GDP
Level
Average energy intensity
in G20
Weak trend
Source: CCPI, 2016
very poor
poor
medium
good
Strong trend
very good
Carbon intensity of the energy sector
70
France's CO2 emissions per primary energy supply
(CO2/TPES) are relatively low and about half of the G20
average. The CCPI evaluates France as relatively good
with a positive trend towards lower carbon intensity per
primary energy supply.
Tonnes of CO2 per TPES (tCO2/TJ)
60
50
40
30
20
10
Carbon intensity
(past trend)
Average carbon intensity
in G20
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
02
20
98
19
94
19
19
90
0
CCPI evaluation of carbon intensity of energy sector
Level
Global benchmark
for a 2°C pathway
Weak trend
Sources: Past: CCPI; future projections: CAT
very poor
poor
medium
good
Strong trend
very good
40%
1000000
35%
900000
800000
30%
700000
25%
600000
20%
500000
15%
400000
300000
10%
Total coal in TPES [TJ]
Share of coal in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
200000
5%
As France mainly relies on nuclear power, the
share of coal in its total primary energy
supply is relatively low. Contrary to the G20
average, France’s share of coal has steadily
decrease over the past decades. In 2012, coal
accounted for 5% of the country's primary
energy supply, whereas the G20 average for
the same year was 34%.
100000
0
% of coal (past trend)
Global benchmark for a 2°C
pathway (min & max)
Average % of coal in G20
Source: CAT
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
30
Evaluation of coal share in TPES
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
02
20
98
19
94
19
19
90
0
Total coal consumption (TJ)
poor
medium
good
Source: own evaluation
France - Country Profile
Renewable energy in TPES and electricity sector
40%
1000000
35%
800000
30%
25%
600000
20%
400000
15%
10%
200000
Total renewable energy in TPES [TJ]
1200000
45%
France’s renewable energy sector is dominated by
hydro power, although the supply of other
renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar) has
grown in the last decade. The country’s share of
renewables in electricity varied slightly over the
last ten years, reaching 15% in 2012. It is expected
that France will further increase the share of
renewables in its electricity sector, in the range of
29 to 40%. The share of renewable energy in the
total primary energy supply has also increased
slowly over the last decade, but remains below the
G20 average. The CCPI rates France’s renewables
level is as medium, with a positive trend.
5%
0
% of renewable energy
in electricity (past trend)
% of renewable energy
in TPES (past trend)
max & min % of renewable
energy in electricity
(current policy projections)
G20 average % of
renewable energy in TPES
Total renewable energy
consumption (TJ)
20
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
02
19
98
19
94
19
90
0
CCPI evaluation of renewable share in TPES
Level
Sources: CCPI and CAT
Weak trend
poor
medium
good
Strong trend
very good
Emissions intensity of the electricity sector
France’s electricity demand per capita increased considerably
over the ten years to 2004. Since then it has remained relatively
stable, but twice as high as the G20 average. In recent years, a
slight downturn has been observed. Future projections are
unclear on whether France will reduce or expand its electricity
demand per capita.
France's electricity emissions intensity is very low, only 12% of
the G20 average. Future projections show this level will remain
relatively constant over the next years.
Electricity demand per capita
(past trend)
Average electricity demand
per capita in G20
Electricity demand per capita
(current policy projections)
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
Good practice benchmark:
without nuclear or large
hydro potential (Denmark)
Emissions intensity
(past trend)
Average emissions intensity in G20
Good practice benchmark:
with large hydro potential (Norway)
Emissions intensity
(current policy projections)
Source: CAT, 2015
20
10
0
20
30
20
26
20
22
20
18
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
02
20
98
19
19
19
94
0
100
06
1000
200
20
2000
02
3000
300
20
4000
400
98
5000
19
6000
500
94
7000
600
19
8000
90
9000
19
Emissions intensity of electricity [gCO2/kWh]
Electricity demand per capita
90
Electricity demand per capita [kWh/cap]
very poor
Source: CAT, 2015
Evaluation of the electricity
emission intensity
poor
medium
good
Source: own evaluation
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
France - Country Profile
CLIMATE POLICY PERFORMANCE
Climate policy evaluation by experts
Checklist of the climate policy framework
In the preparation for taking over the COP
presidency, France pursued a proactive role in
international climate negotiations, and later, led
COP21 in Paris to success and the global
community to a new climate treaty. National
climate experts valued this effort and France
improved its policy ranking in the latest CCPI
edition, both at the international and the national
level.
Low emissions development plan for 2050*
2050 GHG emissions target
Building codes, standards and incentives for low-emissions options
Support scheme for renewables in the power sector
Emissions performance standards for cars
The CCPI evaluates a country‘s performance in national and
international climate policy through feedback from national energy
and climate experts.
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
very good
Carbon tax
* Understood as decarbonisation plans and not specifically as the plans called for in
the Paris Agreement
good
Source: Climate Policy Database, 2016
medium
poor
CCPI evaluation of climate policy
6
5
01
01
I2
CC
P
4
CC
P
I2
3
01
2
01
I2
CC
P
I2
CC
P
1
01
0
01
I2
I2
9
01
00
I2
CC
P
very good
CC
P
good
CC
P
medium
I2
I2
poor
CC
P
very poor
CC
P
00
8
very poor
CCPI edition
National
International
Source: CCPI, 2016
Compatibility of national climate targets (INDCs) with a 2°C scenario
6000
Total emissions (MtCO2e/a)
5000
Max
4000
Min
3000
2000
1000
Max
0
-1000
Min
Historic emissions
(excluding forestry)
sufficient
Source: CAT, 2015
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
role model
30
20
26
20
22
20
Emissions in INDC scenario (min & max)
CAT evaluation of the EU’s Intended
National Determinded Contributions (INDC)
medium
18
Fair emissions reduction range
in a 2°C pathway
Current policy emissions
projections (excluding forestry)
inadequate
20
14
20
10
20
06
20
02
20
98
19
94
19
19
90
-2000
As an EU member state, France did not submit its
own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
(INDC) or emissions reduction target for COP21.
Under its INDC, on 6 March 2015 the EU proposed a
binding, economy-wide target to cut domestic
greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% below
1990 levels in 2030. No individual EU member state
has its own INDC.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates the EU
emissions target as “medium”, meaning the INDC is
inconsistent with limiting warming below 2°C. It
would require other countries to make a
comparably greater effort, and much deeper
emissions reductions.
The overall level of GHG emissions reductions
proposed in the EU28 INDC does not fall within the
range of approaches for fair and equitable emission
reductions. Current policies are projected to reduce
domestic emissions by 23–35% below 1990 levels in
2030, and do not put the EU on a trajectory towards
meeting either its 2030 or 2050 targets. The EU’s
Emissions Trading Scheme is an important
instrument to achieve its 2020 and 2030 targets.
However, an accumulated surplus of emissions
allowances could dilute the 40% GHG target by 7%
in 2030. It is therefore important that the EU creates
a robust market reserve for eliminating that surplus,
to keep in line with the 40% GHG target.
France - Country Profile
FINANCING THE TRANSITION
Investment attractiveness
Allianz Energy and
Climate Monitor
RECAI* (E&Y index)
Category (own assessment)
Climate Transparency rates France’s investment attractiveness as
medium to high, due to good performance in most parameters,
including policy support and stable macroeconomic indicators, which
lower investment risks. However, France hesitates on a transition to a
low-carbon economy that is not based on nuclear power; leading to a
medium performance on the uptake of solar and wind energy, green
investments and associated value chains.
HIGH
MEDIUM
Sources: Allianz Energy and Climate Monitor and RECAI reports
Trend**
*Adapted from RECAI and re-classified in 3 categories
(low, medium, high) for comparison purposes with Allianz Monitor.
**Taken from RECAI issue of May 2016
The Allianz Energy & Climate Monitor ranks G20 member states on their relative fitness
as potential investment destinations for building low-carbon electricity infrastructure.
The investment attractiveness of a country is assessed through four categories: Policy
adequacy, Policy reliability of sustained support, Market absorption capacity and the
National investment conditions. The Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index
(RECAI) produces score and rankings for countries’ attractiveness based on Macro
drivers, Energy market drivers and Technology-specific drivers which together
compress a set of 5 drivers, 16 parameters and over 50 datasets.
Historical investments in renewable energy and investment gap
This section shows France’s current investments in the overall power sector (including distribution and transmission) as well as in
renewable energy expressed as the share of the total annual investments needed to be in line with a 2°C compatible trajectory.
Investments
in the power sector
% of current investments
in the power sector
compared to
the investment needs
under a 2°C pathway
79%
Investments in renewable energy
for the power sector
74%
% of current investments
for renewable energy
in the power sector
compared to
the investment needs
under a 2°C pathway
Source: Adapted from WEIO, 2014(1)
WEIO (2014) compares annual average investments from 2000 to 2013 with average annual investments needed from 2015 to 2030 under a 2°C scenario
(1)
Carbon pricing mechanisms
Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS)
An ETS caps the total level of GHG emissions and
allows industries to trade allowances based on
their marginal abatement cost. By creating a
supply and demand for allowances, an ETS
establishes a market price for GHG emissions.
The carbon tax in France, introduced in 2014, covers 35% of the
country’s GHG emissions and puts a price on the use of fossil fuels in
sectors that are not covered by the EU-ETS, such as residential,
service and transport sectors. The government also plans to set a
carbon price floor, which would require the power sector to pay a
tax of about €30 (USD 33.95) per tonne. Similar to the UK, the carbon
price floor in France is designed to supplement the EU-ETS and
strengthen the carbon price.
Carbon Tax
A Carbon tax directly sets a price on carbon by
defining a tax rate on GHG emissions or – more
commonly – on the carbon content of fossil
fuels. Unlike an ETS, a carbon tax is a price-based
instrument that pre-defines the carbon price,
but not the emissions reduction outcome of a
carbon tax.
GHG
Sources: World Bank and Ecofys, 2016; other national sources
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
France - Country Profile
Fossil fuel subsidies
France offers few subsidies for fossil fuel exploration and production since it has limited conventional fossil fuel reserves. Despite having
vast shale gas reserves, France banned fracking in 2011. Since 2010, it phased out tax deductions for fossil fuel exploration and VAT
exemptions for offshore oil and gas drilling equipment. Excise tax exemption is provided to natural gas, and fuels used in refining and
electricity production. The government funds the French Institute of Petroleum, which conducts research to expand fossil fuel reserves.
Additionally, there are local tax exemptions for exploration and mines.
Average annual
national subsidies (2013-14)*
France
G20 total
% of government’s income
from oil and gas production (2013)*
$0.1 billion
0%
$70 billion
Source: ODI, 2015
*The indicators above refer only to subsidies for fossil fuel production, and include direct spending (e.g. government budget expenditure on infrastructure that
specifically benefits fossil fuels), tax expenditure (e.g. tax deductions for investment in drilling and mining equipment) and other support mechanisms (e.g.
capacity mechanisms).
Public climate finance
France is the G20’s second largest contributor of climate finance, both in absolute terms and relative to GDP. A significant proportion of its
climate finance is delivered through the French Development Agency (AFD). It has also made the second largest GCF pledge relative to
GDP, and supported high level political discussion on options to meet climate finance commitments in the lead up to COP21. France’s
contribution includes export credits to support French companies to invest in developing countries.
Green Climate Fund
pledge
Average climate finance
provided (2013-14)
$
$
$
+
$1
$3.38
billion
billion
bilateral
climate finance
multilateral
climate funds
$3.31 billion
$0.07 billion
Source: ODI, 2016
Brown to green: G20 transition to a low carbon economy
France - Country Profile