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Urbanization and sustainable development David Satterthwaite, IIED How can urbanization be a problem if • All rich nations are highly urbanized; all the poorest nations predominantly rural • All the most successful economies in Africa, Asia and Latin America are urbanizing rapidly • Almost all the least successful economies are not urbanizing or urbanizing slowly Environment & development advantages of cities: Cities with lower unit costs – Economies of scale/proximity for providing piped water, sewers, drains, health care, education, emergency services…… Cheaper to keep down energy use, cut wastes, control pollution, cut greenhouse gas emissions.... WHY DO MOST GOVERNMENTS SEE URBANIZATION AS A PROBLEM? – The mayor who said “The best urban policy – keep people in rural areas” Urbanization and sustainable development Meeting people’s needs – Economic, environmental, social, cultural, health and political needs......... Without compromising ability of future generations to meet their needs – limit generation of environmental costs – sustainable use of finite resources (soils, freshwater...) – limit greenhouse gas emissions Three global milestones for economic change In 2008, more than half the world’s population living in urban areas Two less well-known milestones – 1980, more than half the world’s economically active population working in industry & services – not agriculture (today 65%) – 1940, more than half the world’s GDP was generated in industry and services, not agriculture (today 97%) Urbanization follows economic success – People moving in response to where new investment and jobs concentrate Low- and middle-income nations 100 90 80 Percentage 70 60 % GDP from industry and services % labour force in industry and services Level of urbanization 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Sub-Saharan Africa 1995 2000 2005 India 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0 2005 2000 10 1995 20 1990 30 1985 40 1980 60 50 1975 80 1970 90 1965 100 1960 Egypt 1955 70 Percentage 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 Percentage Percentage 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 Percentage China Pakistan 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mexico 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Cities generating high proportion of GDP City % national population living in that city % GDP generated by that city New York 6.2 9 Mexico City 18.1 41 Sao Paulo Shanghai Mumbai 9.8 1.1 1.7 28 6 16 Cape Town Johannesburg 6.5 7.7 11.2 18.1 Distribution of the world's 'million-cities', 2000 The world’s other 207 nations and territories The worlds five largest economies (USA, China, Japan, India, Germany) The fourth five largest economies (Australia, Turkey, South Africa, Argentina, Netherlands) The third five largest economies (Mexico, Canada, Rep Korea, Spain, Indonesia) The second five largest economies (France, UK, Italy, Brazil and Russia) Urbanization also supports economic growth Economic logic to where urbanization is taking place and large cities develop – Private investment goes to cities that provide economies of scale and agglomeration – A few exceptions (political change, war/civil strife, disasters) Well-functioning cities essential for economic competitiveness – Economies of scale/agglomeration for businesses, economics of scale and proximity for almost all forms of infrastructure and services In successful economies, urbanization decentralizes – Especially if there are competent, capable local governments outside the largest cities Urbanization and health Concentrate people, industries, vehicles and their wastes – without good government, very poor health – – – – Cholera, typhoid, diarrhoeal diseases, ARI...... Much of the population in slums/squatter settlements One child in five dying Urban life poor, nasty, brutish and short (Thomas Hobbes) Use potential advantages of this concentration for providing infrastructure & services and good governance – a huge health benefit The more urbanized a nation, the higher the life expectancy – All the most urbanized nations with high life expectancies – But good city government needed to deliver this 80 79 78 70 60 50 30 Tu ni s Dh ak a Bu ju m bu ra N. Dj am en a Ki ns ha sa Li lo Po ng or w ,m e an Co y na Af kr ric y an cit ie s? 90 o Ba ng ko Po k rt o Al eg re Sa o Pa ul o To ky Urbanization & health: Life expectancy:women 84.1 76.2 74.2 60.9 53.7 50 50 44.6 41 40 25 20 10 0 Governance and health penalties Good city governance can deliver 10-30 years more life expectancy than bad city governance? – Good city governance cutting under five mortality rates from over 100 to under 20? Good health statistics for a city depends on reducing the health penalty of having a low income – In badly governed cities, huge health differentials between high-income and lowincome areas Urbanization and social development Cities driving innovations in participation and democracy (social innovations in Latin America mostly driven by city governments?) Cities helping partnerships between local governments & citizen groups • 20 nations with national federations of slum/shack dwellers who offer governments partnerships: in India, South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, Malawi, the Philippines.. • Work of the Orangi Pilot Project-Research and Training Institute in Pakistan on sanitation, drainage..... • Partnerships between local governments and lowincome groups in Thailand, supported by CODI • The many Latin American cities with mayors who work with the low-income population, not against them Urbanization and global warming Cities unfairly blamed for global warming – Cities said to produce 75-80% of all greenhouse gas emissions - but no scientific evidence for this • Misses large contributions of agriculture and deforestation and of industries & high-income people outside cities Well planned/governed cities can cut link between high quality of life & high greenhouse gas emissions • People choosing to walk, bicycle, use public transport • Much city housing can be very space & energy efficient • Much of what makes a city enjoyable does not mean high greenhouse gas emissions – centres of culture, theatre, music, dance, fun.... What we need for the future Imagination to see potential of cities for sustainable development and act on this City governments with the bravery to engage with their low-income populations – Civil servants and politicians who see the dynamism and capacity of low-income groups and migrants and their potential as partners City governments that build into development plans the need to adapt to climate change & keep down greenhouse gas emissions African, Asian and Latin American cities to show Europe and the USA how to develop very healthy cities without high ecological costs Urbanization & health: water and sanitation Best performing cities for in- Many cities in North Africa, house water supplies Mexico, Brazil, South Africa Worst performing cities for in-house water supplies Best performing cities for sanitation Worst performing cities for sanitation Most sub-Saharan African cities, Colombo, Bangalore... Several Brazilian & Mexican cities, many Asian cities, some North African cities Most sub-Saharan African cities, Dhaka, Bangalore Singapore 100 Venezuela Belgium Uruguay Israel Argentina Lebanon Jordan 80 Chile New Zealand Russian Fed Estonia Armenia Malaysia Ecuador Congo 60 Georgia UK Australia Denmark Sweden Saudi Arabia Brazil Korea, Rep Gabon Peru Urbanization level in 2000 (%) Hong Kong, China Kuwait Mexico Czech Rep Colombia Lithuania Turkey Hungary Bolivia Poland South Costa Rica Slovakia Africa Croatia Botswana Syrian AR Belize Egypt Nigeria Guatemala Bosnia & Mauritius Herzegovena 40 Indonesia China Pakistan Namibia Guinea Thailand Guyana India VietnamSwaziland Bangladesh 20 Lao, PDR Cambodia Sri Lanka Uganda Trinidad and Tobago Burundi Canada USA France Netherlands Spain Norway Germany Switzerland UAE Italy Japan Austria Finland Ireland Greece Portugal Slovenia 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 GDP per capita in 2000 (US$ PPP) 25,000 30,000 35,000 Good governance using potential of cities Economies of scale and proximity for health producing or enhancing infrastructure – – – – – Water Sanitation Drainage Health care and emergency services Schools and pre-school provision
