Download A framework for evaluating risk of aquatic invasive species

A framework for evaluating risk of
aquatic invasive species range
expansions in a changing climate in
Pennsylvania
Sara N. Grisé
Dr. Theo Light
Shippensburg University
Pennsylvania Sea Grant
• Climate change and emission scenarios
• Impacts of AIS
• Climate change +AIS ~ what can we expect?
• Objectives of research
• Methods
• Outputs
• Outcomes
• More than 50% of
the increase in
globally averaged
temperatures is
likely due to human
sources
▫ Carbon dioxide
▫ Methane
▫ Nitrous oxide
• Can persist for
thousands of years
• Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
Emission Scenarios
▫▫ High
(A2)(A1B)
Medium
Low (B1)



Business
asefficient
usual
New
more
Energy
sources
are focused
Fossil
technologies
fuel intensive
on efficiency
and global
technologies
Balance between
fossil and
solutions
to sustainability
non-fossil fuel technologies
• Changes to Pennsylvania’s Climate:
▫ Increased Temperature
Average daily temperatures are expected to
increase 2.5°F between 2010 and 2039
▫ More Precipitation
Precipitation is expected to increase by more
than 5% seasonally (less in summer and more
in winter)
▫ Less Snow
Decreased number of snow covered days
▫ More hazardous events
Increased severe storm events and flooding
How will these climate impacts affect
aquatic invasive species?
• Non-native species that cause
environmental or economic harm, or
harm to human health….
Bloody-red shrimp
• One of the greatest threats to
biodiversity worldwide (Sala et al.
2000, Lodge 2001)
• Share characteristics that make them
so successful:
▫
▫
▫
▫
Rapid growth and reproduction
Highly adaptable
Voracious feeders
Lack of predator pressure
Asian carp
Didymo
• Environmental Impacts
▫ Decline in native species
▫ Food web disturbances
▫ Degraded habitats
• Economic Impacts
▫ Recreational impacts
▫ Aesthetic impacts
▫ Infrastructure impacts
• Health Impacts
▫ Bioaccumulation of toxins
▫ Impacts to water quality
Combining these
stressors may create
one of the greatest
threats of recent
times
• Interactions not yet well understood
 Increase or decrease success of
establishment
 Exacerbate or diminish impacts
• Climate factors that will influence
AIS
▫ Increased atmospheric CO2
 Growth rate, water use, nutrient
uptake of plants
 E.g., Increased CO2 increased the
growth rate of Hydrilla
▫ Erratic weather patterns
 Increase dispersal
 Allow for AIS escapes
Increasing Temperatures
• Important in determining where species can survive
and reproduce.
• Increasing temperatures and other stressors will
impact AIS:
▫
▫
▫
▫
Establishment
Spread
Abundance
Impacts
• How do we prepare and adapt?
• Purpose is to determine:
▫ How suitable is Pennsylvania’s climate for species
movement and establishment under various climate
and emission scenarios?
▫ Can we accurately predict the possible range
expansions of AIS by projecting species temperature
constraints onto climate projection models?
PROJECT OUTLINE
• Establishment and spread:
▫
▫
▫
▫
Choose species
Downscaled climate projection models
Climate software
Visualization tools
• Abundance, impacts, and other factors:
▫ Case-studies
• AIS Management
▫ Framework
▫ Education and outreach
METHODS- CHOOSE SPECIES
• Sampled the United States
Geological Survey (USGS)
Non-Indigenous Aquatic
Species Database (NAS)
• Requirements for selection:
▫
▫
▫
▫
Not currently in PA
Not currently in areas north of PA
No hybrids
No intentionally stocked species
(salmonids)
▫ Southern species with the
potential to move north
METHODS- CHOOSE SPECIES
• On-line random number
generator
▫ 15 species of each taxa
▫ Fish, plants and
invertebrates
• What % of chosen
species will see
increases in suitable
habitat by 2099?
▫ Climate matching
METHODS- CLIMATE SOFTWARE
• CLIMEX Software
▫ Climate Matching (Climatch):




Lacks predictive capacity
Cannot distinguish between emission scenarios
Not species specific
Followed the procedures outlined in Britton, et al. 2010,
to use predictively
▫ Compare years function
 Has predictive capacity
 Utilizes temperature and emission scenarios
 Requires detailed species information
METHODS- DOWN-SCALED CLIMATE PROJECTION MODELS
• Downscaled projection
models from Santa
Clara University
 Baseline: Jan 1970-Dec 1999
 Near future: Jan 2020-Dec
2029
 Mid future: Jan 2050-Dec
2059
 Distant future: Jan 2090-Dec
2099
• Determined the
average temperature
for each time period
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html
METHODS- CLIMATE MATCHING
• Which state’s current climate will
Pennsylvania’s future climate
most likely resemble?
▫ Historical state temperature
averages
▫ Calculated the % difference in
temperature from each state to PA’s
projected temperature
▫ States with the lowest % difference
had most similar climates
▫ Top 5 most similar states:
 Tennessee
 Kentucky
 Delaware
 Virginia
 North Carolina
METHODS- CLIMATE MATCHING
• Climate-matching as a first
pass to narrow down the
species
▫ Need source region for each
species
▫ Compare meteorological data
between the source region and
target region
▫ “Imitate” PA’s climate with the
five most similar states
▫ Identified a climate match on a
0-10 scoring scale.
▫ A score above 7 is considered
“suitable” (Britton, et al. 2010)
Banana water lily
METHODS- CLIMATE MATCHING
▫ Current PA climate:

20% suitable climate (8/40
stations greater than 7)
▫ Future PA climate:


Average of 90.5% suitability
between all five states
(Ex: North Carolina, all
stations score above 7)
METHODS- CLIMATE MATCHING
60
51.52
50
% with
enough
source
info
47.06
40
Percent
33.33
Fish
(n=30)
100
(n=30)
Plants
(n=15)
60
(n=9)
Inverts
(n=21)
57.14
(n=12)
10
Total
(n=66)
77.27
(n=51)
0
30
20
17.65
Baseline “0” score
No change in 2099
15.69
Declined
Total Species
Total increase
Likely to invade
METHODS- CLIMATE MATCHING
• Species with
the highest
increases in
suitable
habitat
• In-depth
literature
search for
each species
TOP RISKY SPECIES:
Fish
Redeye Bass
Rosy barb
Highscale shiner
Mozambique Tilapia
Saffron Shiner
Red Piranha
Snubnose darter
PERCENT CHANGE
70.51
62.88
62.77
58.39
55.51
54.74
52.59
Plants
Australian water-clover
Banana Water-lily
Water-spangles
83.94
83.43
62.46
Invertebrates
Ditch-fencing crayfish
62.17
Cambarus longirostris
52.59
METHODS- CLIMEX
• Compare Years:
▫ predicts the potential distribution
of a species in relation to climate
for the same location over
different years
• Uses very specific species
tolerance parameters to give an
“Ecoclimatic Index", (EI)
• EI= overall measure of
suitability of the location or year
for a species.
• EI= 100 is the highest score for
suitability
OUTPUTS
• Case Studies
▫ Detail the potential for establishment
▫ Document factors such as propagule pressure and competition
▫ Determine vectors for introduction
• Framework
▫ Can be tailored for use with other potentially risky species
▫ Can be incorporated into the PA AIS management plan
• Education and Outreach
▫ Workshops to train AIS managers on how to use the framework
METHODS- OUTCOMES
• This research will….
▫ provide the ability to predict and map the potential future
distributions of species as determined by climate factors
▫ enable resource managers at the state and local level to
make proactive decisions about invasive species
management and control
▫ provide an adaptable framework for predicting the future
ranges of additional species not used in this analysis
• May be used in combination with future early detection
technologies such as environmental DNA (eDNA)
SMART Objectives
• By January 2012, 50% of state AIS managers will
recognize five new potential invaders that could
move into PA as climate changes
• By 2015, 25% of state AIS managers will utilize
the AIS risk assessment framework to gauge the
risk of potential invaders as climate changes
• By 2029, 75% of state AIS managers will be
proactively prepared to deal with new AIS
introductions catalyzed by climate change
• A special thanks to…
Tim Hawkins, Department of Geology and Earth Science, Shippensburg
University
Todd Hurd, Department of Biology, Shippensburg University
Joshua Brown, National Sea Grant Program Office
Bob Light, Pennsylvania Sea Grant
Questions?
Sara Grisé
Pennsylvania Sea Grant
1601 Elmerton Avenue
Harrisburg, PA 17106
Email: [email protected]
Phone: 814-602-4383