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Ethiopia Summary Moody’s B1 / S&P B / Fitch B1 Economy: Agriculture 41%, Industry 16%, Services 43% Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world but has experienced one of the highest growth rates. The economy has grown at an average rate of 10.2% on the back of the “development state” model, which has helped to improve social conditions and infrastructure substantially. The challenge for Ethiopia going forward is to sustain strong economic growth without major economic imbalances. The public sector plays a key role in economic expansion, putting pressure on the public balance sheet and indirectly on the banking system as SOEs are major borrowers. The external sector is relatively weak given the high current account deficit and relatively low foreign reserves. On the political side, the ruling party won the parliamentary elections comfortably in 2015 and remains firmly in power. However, social tension has been erupting against the government from ethnic Oromos and Amharas, which has led to major protests and a state of emergency in October 2016 for six months. As a response to the crisis, the government has reshuffled the cabinet to include Oromo members. Economic Indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Population (Millions) 2012 85.6 87.0 88.3 89.8 91.2 92.7 GDP per Capita (USD) 504 548 628 687 759 830 Nominal GDP (USD Billions) 43.1 47.7 55.5 61.6 69.2 76.9 7.5 Real GDP (%) 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.2 6.5 Year-End CPI (%) 15.0 7.7 7.1 10.0 9.7 8.0 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -1.9 -2.6 -2.5 -3.0 -3.2 Interest (% of Revenues) 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.2 FC Debt/Public Debt (%) 55.2 54.9 53.6 52.1 51.4 51.6 Government Debt (% of GDP) 36.9 42.4 46.3 56.1 57.4 60.3 238.6 268.0 310.7 347.2 332.5 353.1 Current Account (% of GDP) -6.9 -5.9 -7.9 -12.0 -10.7 -9.3 FDI (% of GDP) 2.5 2.6 4.0 5.2 6.4 6.3 External Debt (% of GDP) 20.3 23.3 25.5 30.0 32.9 35.0 Foreign Reserves/External Debt (%) Government Debt (% of Revenue) 27.4 22.5 23.0 18.4 16.1 15.3 Foreign Reserves (Mo. of Imports) 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Foreign Reserves (% of GDP) 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.3 As of November 2016 Forecasted or estimated results do not represent a promise or guarantee of future results and are subject to change. Source: IMF, Standard Bank, Haver and Lazard 693 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Rating History Below is a history of the country’s foreign and local currency ratings by the major agencies dating back to 2000. We have also included a chart of the country’s hard currency external debt spread and the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index spread for comparison. Rating History Hard Currency Local Currency B+ B+ B B B- 2000 2008 Moody's 2016 S&P Fitch B- 2000 2008 Moody’s S&P 2016 Fitch As of December 2016 Performance represents past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: Fitch, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, Bloomberg Bond Spreads 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 Ethiopia 2010 2012 2014 2016 EMBIGD As of December 2016 Performance represents past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Source: JP Morgan 694 Ethiopia Strengths Strong Economic Growth Ethiopia’s economy is growing at one of the fastest paces in the world, at an average rate of 10.2% in 2006–2016, which is among the top five globally.2 In the next five years, the International Monetary Fund expects the economy to grow at average rate of 7.4%, among the top 10 in the world.3 Expansionary fiscal policy is an engine of economic growth, especially as several public companies are completing major investment projects in the energy sector, as Ethiopia is aiming to become an energy exporting country. One of the most important projects in the pipeline is the construction of the largest hydropower plant on the Blue Nile River, which will increase electricity output fivefold by 2020.4 In the past decade, the service and agriculture sectors have led economic growth with the industrial sector lagging.5 Economic Growth Potential Not only is the country growing, it has untapped growth potential. Although Ethiopia’s economy is small by global standards, it is one of the largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, totaling US$76.9 billion.6 It has a very young population with an average age of 18, which may be an important source of growth.7 The young population and relatively low income levels may attract foreign firms looking for cheap labor. In addition, Ethiopia has the second-largest population in Africa; thus, it could continue to expand and become an attractive market, assuming income levels increase. Banking System The banking system is relatively healthy, although not very diversified, according to the IMF. The banking system is dominated by three banks that total close to 80% of banking assets. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE), the public bank, is by far the most important, amounting to 70% of the system’s assets.8 The capital adequacy ratio of the banking system amounts to 15% compared to the minimum requirement of 8%, while non-performing loans represent 3.5% of total loans. Liquidity has declined, but remains slightly above the 15% minimum requirement at 16.1%. 9 Through the CBE, the banking system provides a substantial amount of credit to public enterprises.10 Political Stability Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country, and since the overthrow of the communist regime in 1991, political stability has consolidated. However, democracy is rather weak as the country has been governed by one party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRDF), since 1991. Meles Zenawi was the prime minister from 1995 until his death in 2012; he was replaced by Hailemariam Desalegn, who is still in power. During most of Prime Minister Zenawi’s term, economic performance was solid and social conditions improved, including ending famine in Ethiopia.11 However, on the political side, he was known for intimidating the opposition.12 Democratic elections tend to fall short of international standards, and although international observers criticized the previous election, no sanctions have been adopted.13 The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2015 and the EPRDF won by a huge margin. It, and its allies, won 546 seats out of the 547 seats in Congress, thus maintaining political stability for the country until the next election cycle. 695 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Weaknesses Social Tensions The Oromos, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group accounting for almost 35% population, have been staging protest rallies against systematic persecution and discrimination since April 2014. Oromos are traditionally farmers, and a development plan that intended to expand Addis Ababa territorial limits into towns and villages inhabited by Oromos was perceived as an annexation that triggered massive national protests14 resulting in thousands arrested and an estimated 400 deaths. This led the Amhara, the second-largest ethnic group accounting for 27% of the population, and traditionally a rival to the Oromos, to also protest against the government in July 2016, as both ethnic groups feel they are economically and politically marginalized by a government that is dominated by ethnic Tigray, who account for only 6% of the population.15 Ultimately, these protests evolved into a broader rally over politics and human rights that resulted in the government declaring a state of emergency for six months in October 2016, the first time in 25 years.16 Amid increasing social tensions, in November 2016, the prime minister reshuffled his entire cabinet to include Oromian ministers, but this is unlikely to calm the situation.17 Limited Economic Diversification The Ethiopian economy is not very diversified, with the agriculture sector playing a key role in the economy. According to CIA indicators, agriculture amounts to close to 50% of GDP and more than three-fourths of the labor force.18 Coffee is by far the most important export, amounting to about one-third of total exports.19 Meanwhile, agricultural products amount to close to three-quarters of total exports.20 The government is aiming to diversify away from the agricultural sector and to expand the industrial sector with the goal of increasing the share of the industrial sector from 12.9% of GDP to 18.8% of GDP.21 The government is spending a large share of its budget in the capital expenditure necessary to diversify away from agriculture, and has also developed a 10-year National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan to foster tourism.22 Government Balance Sheet The public-sector balance sheet is weak when public enterprises are included. The general government deficit totaled an estimated 3% of GDP in 2017–2018 and is expected to remain at similar levels in the medium term. A 3% deficit seems low, but this does not include the public enterprises, which are expanding considerably. Including the public enterprises, total financing needs of the public sector are close to 7.4% of GDP. Government debt has also increased considerably, increasing from 40% of GDP in 2010 to 60% in 2017, although a significant portion was used to finance large-scale infrastructure investments. Public Enterprises The public sector continues to play an important role in the economy as public companies control key industries such as in the electricity, telecommunications, and financial sectors. Opening up some key industries may help increase competition and put less pressure on the government balance sheet.23 The government has also created a new Ministry for Public Enterprises, which will strengthen the commercial profitability of SOEs and improve governance.24 However, there is also a risk that any potential problems with the public enterprises could lead to significant problems in the banking system. Banks have a high exposure to public enterprises, as they are the major borrowers in the economy, accounting for slightly more than 50% of the banking sector’s domestic credit.25 696 Ethiopia Financing Limitations/Low Savings Ethiopia has a very low savings rate, which is common among poor countries. The banking system is relatively small, with domestic credit totaling less than 10% of GDP.26 The domestic debt market is not very developed, even when compared with some other African countries such as Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria. Like other African countries, the central government is dependent on multilateral lending. The central bank is also another important financing source of the central government. Meanwhile, public enterprises consume a large portion of banking system resources, crowding out the private sector. External Sector Ethiopia runs large external imbalances reflected in the high current account deficit, totaling close to 10% of GDP; the rising external debt; low foreign reserves; and an overvalued exchange rate. The high current account deficit reflects both the country’s low savings and lack of competitiveness despite an increase in exports. Like most African countries, Ethiopia imports many of the products it consumes domestically. The country’s ongoing investment projects have also resulted in higher intermediate capital imports. Meanwhile, the bulk of the financing comes from concessional lending and from foreign direct investment (FDI). At the same time, the level of foreign reserves remains very low, equivalent to two months of imports, which falls below the three-month threshold considered to be adequate. The exchange rate is overvalued by an estimated 10–15%.27 Landlocked Ethiopia’s location is not ideal. It is a landlocked country, which increases transportation costs substantially, especially since infrastructure is not limited. About 90% of Ethiopia’s trade goes through Djibouti, which is located about 700 kilometers from the capital.28 This results in significant costs. For example, the cost to import a container is US$2,660 in Ethiopia compared to US$670 in Vietnam.29 On the positive side, the government is replacing the railway connecting Addis Ababa and Djibouti, which should reduce costs by half.30 Location Ethiopia is located in a relatively unstable area as it shares borders with Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, three countries that are facing civil war or have faced a recent armed conflict. The armed conflicts in neighboring countries negatively affect economic growth via trade, while increasing social costs as a result of refugees from these countries.31 While Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea has improved since the end of the war in 2000, tension remains as a result of disputed border regions.32 Transparency of Economic Data A key constraint of Ethiopia is transparency and the quality of economic indicators, even by Sub-Saharan Africa standards. The best source of information is the IMF, and additional details of Ethiopia’s economic data is not readily available. The quality of the data is also limited; for example, the national accounts are not very reliable, according to the IMF.33 The government does not provide the details of the public balance sheet, especially the public enterprises and the financial system, which makes it very difficult to analyze the strength of the public and financial sectors. In addition, the informal sector is relatively large, totaling 38.6% of GDP, but this is in line with the 38% ratio for all low-income countries. The large informal sector is one of the reasons that tax collection is very low at only 11% of GDP.34 697 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Income Level Although social indicators are relatively good by Sub-Saharan standards, Ethiopia is still one of the poorest countries in the world despite recent improvements. Ethiopia’s GDP per capita totals an estimated US$830, among the bottom 10 in the world.35 The government spends a substantial amount on social programs, with poverty-related expenditure totaling 12% of GDP.36 According to an IMF report, Ethiopia has “the second largest social protection program in Africa.”37 This has helped to reduce poverty levels faster than other African countries; poverty levels have declined from above 60% in 1982 to close to 30% in 2011, while in the rest of SubSaharan Africa, poverty has only declined from 60% in 1996 to 48% through 2010.38 Ethiopia also ranks higher than other low-income countries on the Human Development Index,39 and its income distribution is more evenly distributed than in other African countries.40 The government’s ultimate goal is to become a middle-income country by 2025. 698 Ethiopia Country Background Size 1,104,300 KM2 (27th) Capital Addis Ababa Population 102.4 Million Ethnic Groups Oromo 34%, Amhara 27%, Somali 6%, Tigrai 6% Religion Ethiopian Orthodox 43.5%, Muslim 33.9%, Protestant 18.5% Median Age 17.8 Years Literacy Rate 49.1% Independence — Political System Federal Republic Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn Legislative Elections 2020 Legislative Branch Bicameral Economy Agriculture 40.5%, Industry 16.2%, Service 43.3% Labor Force Agriculture 85%, Industry 5%, Service 10% Merchandise Exports Coffe, Khat, Gold Export Partners China 17%, Germany 7 %, US 7%, Belgium 7%, Saudi Arabia 7% Currency Birr (ETB) As of November 2016 Source: CIA 699 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Country Timeline Italy invades 1895 Italy invades Ethiopia. 1896 Italian forces defeated by the Ethiopians at Adwa; treaty of Wuchale annulled; Italy recognises Ethiopia's independence but retains control over Eritrea. 1913 Menelik dies and is succeeded by his grandson, Lij Iyasu. 1916 Lij Iyasu deposed and is succeeded by Menelik's daughter, Zawditu, who rules through a regent, Ras Tafari Makonnen. 1930 Zawditu dies and is succeeded by Ras Tafari Makonnen, who becomes Emperor Haile Selassie I. 1935 Italy invades Ethiopia. 1936 Italians capture Addis Ababa, Haile Selassie flees, king of Italy made emperor of Ethiopia; Ethiopia combined with Eritrea and Italian Somaliland to become Italian East Africa. Haile Selassie’s reign 1941 British and Commonwealth troops, greatly aided by the Ethiopian resistance - the arbegnoch defeat the Italians, and restore Haile Selassie to his throne. 1952 United Nations federates Eritrea with Ethiopia. 1962 Haile Selassie annexes Eritrea, which becomes an Ethiopian province. 1963 First conference of the Organisation of African Unity held in Addis Ababa. Red terror 1973-74 An estimated 200,000 people die in Wallo province as a result of famine. 1974 Haile Selassie overthrown in military coup. General Teferi Benti becomes head of state. 1975 Haile Selassie dies in mysterious circumstances while in custody. 1977 Benti killed and replaced by Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam. 1977-79 Thousands of government opponents die in "Red Terror" orchestrated by Mengistu; collectivisation of agriculture begins; Tigrayan People's Liberation Front launches war for regional autonomy. 1977 Somalia invades Ethiopia's Ogaden region. 1978 Somali forces defeated with massive help from the Soviet Union and Cuba. 1984-85 Worst famine in a decade strikes; Western food aid sent; thousands forcibly resettled from Eritrea and Tigre. 1987 Mengistu elected president under a new constitution. 1988 Ethiopia and Somalia sign a peace treaty. After Mengistu 1991 Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front captures Addis Ababa, forcing Mengistu to flee the country; Eritrea establishes its own provisional government pending a referendum on independence. 1992 Haile Selassie's remains discovered under a palace toilet. 1993 Eritrea becomes independent following referendum. 1994 New constitution divides Ethiopia into ethnically-based regions. 1995 Negasso Gidada becomes titular president; Meles Zenawi assumes post of prime minister. 1998 Ethiopian-Eritrean border dispute erupts into armed clashes. 700 Ethiopia War with Eritrea 1999 Ethiopian-Eritrean border clashes turn into a full-scale war. 2000 June—Ethiopia and Eritrea sign a ceasefire agreement which provides for a UN observer force to monitor the truce and supervise the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Eritrean territory. 2000 November—Haile Selassie buried in Addis Ababa's Trinity Cathedral. 2000 December—Ethiopia and Eritrea sign a peace agreement in Algeria, ending two years of conflict. The agreement establishes commissions to delineate the disputed border and provides for the exchange of prisoners and the return of displaced people. 2001 February—Ethiopia says it has completed its troop withdrawal from Eritrea in accordance with UN-sponsored agreement. 2002 April—Ethiopia, Eritrea accept a new common border, drawn up by an independent commission, though both sides then lay claim to the town of Badme. 2003 April—Independent boundary commission rules that the disputed town of Badme lies in Eritrea. Ethiopia says the ruling is unacceptable. 2004 January-February—Nearly 200 killed in ethnic clashes in isolated western region of Gambella. Tens of thousands flee area. 2004 March—Start of resettlement programme to move more than two million people away from parched, over-worked highlands.January-February - Nearly 200 killed in ethnic clashes in isolated western region of Gambella. Tens of thousands flee area. 2004 November—Ethiopia says it accepts "in priniciple" a boundary commission's ruling on its border with Eritrea. But a protracted stalemate over the disputed town of Badme continues. 2005 March—US-based Human Rights Watch accuses army of "widespread murder, rape and torture" against Gambella region's ethnic Anuak people. Military angrily rejects charge. 2005 April—First section of Axum obelisk, looted by Italy in 1937, is returned to Ethiopia from Rome. Disputed poll 2005 May—Disputed multi-party elections lead to violent protests over months. April - First section of Axum obelisk, looted by Italy in 1937, is returned to Ethiopia from Rome. 2005 August-September—Election re-runs in more than 30 seats: Officials say the ruling party gains enough seats to form a government. 2005 December—International commission, based in The Hague, rules that Eritrea broke international law when it attacked Ethiopia in 1998. More than 80 people, including journalists and many opposition leaders, are charged with treason and genocide over November's deadly clashes. 2006 May—Six political parties and armed groups form an opposition alliance, the Alliance for Freedom and Democracy, at a meeting in the Netherlands. Several bomb blasts hit Addis Ababa. No organisation claims responsibility. 2006 August—Several hundred people are feared to have died and thousands are left homeless as floods hits the north, south and east. Somalia tensions 2006 September—Ethiopia denies that its troops have crossed into Somalia to support the transitional government in Baidoa. 2006 October—UN Secretary General Kofi Annan urges Eritrea to pull back the troops it has moved into the buffer zone on the Ethiopian border. The UN says the incursion is a major ceasefire violation. War of words between Ethiopia and Islamists controlling much of Somalia. Prime Minister Meles says Ethiopia was "technically" at war with the Islamists because they had declared holy war on his country. 701 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt 2006 November—UN report says several countries - including Ethiopia - have been violating a 1992 arms embargo on Somalia by supplying arms to the interim government there. Ethiopia's arch enemy Eritrea is accused of supplying the rival Islamist administration. Ethiopia and Eritrea reject a proposal put forward by an independent boundary commission as a way around a four-year impasse over the demarcation of their shared border. Ethiopian troops enter Somalia, engage in fierce fighting with Islamists controlling large parts of the country and capital. The Islamists disperse. Somalia invasion 2006 December—Exiled former dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam is convicted, in absentia, of genocide at the end of a 12-year trial. He is later sentenced to death. 2007 April—Gunmen attack a Chinese-owned oil facility in the south-east Somali region, killing 74 people working there. 2007 June—Opposition leaders are given life sentences over mass protests that followed elections in 2005, but are later pardoned. 2007 September—Ethiopia celebrates the start of a new millennium according to the calendar of the Coptic Orthodox Church. 2007 November—Ethiopia rejects border line demarcated by international boundary commission. Eritrea accepts it. 2008 June—Peace agreement signed between Somali government and rebels provides for withdrawal of Ethiopian troops within 120 days. 2008 July—UN Security Council votes unanimously to end UN peacekeeping mission monitoring disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 2008 September—Celebrations held to mark completion of reassembly of 1700-year-old Axum Obelisk, looted in 1937 during the Italian conquest and returned by Italy in three parts after 2005. 2008 December—Police re-arrest key opposition leader Birtukan Medeksa, who was jailed for her role in the opposition protests after the 2005 polls, and freed under a government pardon in 2007. Somalia pullout 2009 January—Ethiopia formally withdraws forces from Somalia. 2009 June—Ethiopia admits to "reconnaissance missions" in Somalia, but denies re-deploying troops there. 2009 August—Ethiopia, Eritrea ordered to pay each other compensation for their 1998-2000 border war. 2009 September—Chinese firms secure deal to build several hydro-power dams and wind farms. 2009 November—Twenty-six found guilty of coup plot. 2009 December—Rebels of the Ogaden National Liberation Front claim capture of several towns in the east in a month of heavy fighting. 2010 May—Ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) wins huge majority in parliamentary elections, handing PM Meles Zenawi a fourth term. EU observes say the vote "fell short". Opposition leaders demand a rerun. 2010 October—Ongoing clashes reported between government forces and Ogaden rebels. Tensions with Eritrea 2011 March—Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of sending agents across the border to plant bombs and warns it will take all necessary measures to halt Eritrean "aggression". Ogaden National Liberation Front members, Mogadishu, 2006 Rebels from the ethnic Somali Ogaden region are seeking regional autonomy. 2011 April—Ethiopia for the first time declares openly that it will support Eritrean rebel groups fighting to overthrow President Isaias Afewerki. 702 Ethiopia 2011 June—Parliament designates three domestic political and armed organisations as terrorist groups. 2011 July—Drought. Millions of Ethiopians and refugees from Somalia need emergency aid. Two Swedish journalists are captured by Ethiopian troops in Ogaden region during a clash with ONLF rebels. 2011 October—The American military begins flying drone aircraft from a base in Ethiopia, as part of its fight against Islamist militants in Somalia. 2011 November—Ethiopian troops are spotted in Somalia. A government spokesman denies their presence. 2011 December—Two Swedish journalists arrested while covering conflict in Ogaden region are found guilty of supporting terrorism. They are sentenced to 11 years in jail. 2012 January—Ethiopia accused of forcing thousands off their land for foreign investors.Group of European tourists kidnapped, killed in remote Afar region near the border with Eritrea. 2012 March—Ethiopian troops attack positions in south-eastern Eritrea, alleging that subversive groups were being trained there. 2012 June—Rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front claims it attacked an army convoy and garrison, killing 168 Ethiopian troops. Ethiopian troops withdraw from towns in central Somalia which they had seized from rebel al Shabaab control. New leader 2012 August—Prime Minister Meles Zenawi dies after several months of rumours about his declining health. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn takes over the following month. 2013 June—Ethiopia and Egypt agree to hold talks to quell tensions over the building of an Ethiopian dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt worries the dam will reduce vital water supply. 2015 March—Ethiopia destroys entire stockpile of illegally poached ivory. Conservationists say the country remains a key trafficking hub. 2015 May—Ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) wins an overwhelming victory in general election. 2015 July—Barack Obama becomes the first sitting US president to visit Ethiopia, and praises the country's role in fighting Al-Shabab militants in Somalia. Anti-government protests 2016 January—Government drops plans to expand Addis Ababa boundaries after months of protests by Oromo ethnic group fearing farmers could be displaced. Rights groups estimate at least 140 people killed by security forces during protests. Millions of people face dire food shortages after Ethiopia suffers its worst drought in decades. 2016 July—Tens of thousands of people from Ethiopia's ethnic Amhara group take part in an antigovernment demonstration in the northern city of Gondar. 2016 September—The African Union calls for restraint in Ethiopia after months of anti-government protests which began in the central Oromo region before spreading to Amhara in the north. Human rights groups say at least 500 people have been killed. 2016 September—Britain, the EU and the World Bank announce a project to create 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia. A third of the jobs will be for Eritrean refugees to whom the Ethiopian government will grant full employment rights. 2016 October—Government declares a six-month state of emergency following months of violent anti-government protests. 2016 December—Economic growth declines to 8% from a previous annual average of 10%. Government blames drought but observers say unrest has also had an effect. Source: BBC 703 Lazard Emerging Markets Debt Notes 1 As of December 2016. 2 World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, October 2016, accessed on November 26, 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx. 3 World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, October2016, accessed on November 26, 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx. 4 Pronina, Lyubov, “Ethiopia Plans Debut Dollar-Bond Joining Ghana, Kenya,” Bloomberg, November 25, 2014, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-25/ethiopia-plans-debutforeign-currency-bond-joining-ghana-kenya.html. 5 “Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 6 “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, October 2016, accessed on November 26, 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx. 7 “The World Factbook,” Central Intelligence Agency, accessed on December 9, 2014, https://www.cia.gov/ library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html. 8 “The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 13/309, October 2013, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13309.pdf. 9 Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 16/322, October 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16322.pdf. 10“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 11Ethiopia Bond Prospectus, 2014. 12“Ethiopia’s Hailemariam Desalegn sworn in as prime minister,” BBC, September 21, 2014, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-19672302. 13EU observers say Ethiopia election ‘falls short,’” BBC, May 25, 2010, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/10153216. Malone, Barry, and David Clarke, “Ethiopia’s Meles rejects poll criticism,” Reuters, May 26, 2010, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/26/us-ethiopia-election-idUSTRE64P5IZ20100526. 14http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/09/africa/ethiopia-oromo-protest/ accessed November 26, 2016. 15http://qz.com/753252/ethiopias-previously-divided-ethnic-groups-are-unifying-to-protest-against-the-government/ accessed November 26, 2016. 16http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/ethiopia-state-emergency-arrests-top-11000-161112191919319. html accessed November 26, 2016. 17https://www.ft.com/content/53e0fe6e-a026-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2 accessed November 26, 2016. 18“The World Factbook,” Central Intelligence Agency, accessed on October 13, 2015, https://www.cia.gov/ library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html. 19“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 20November 2014 Prospectus. 21“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 22Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 16/322, October 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16322.pdf. 23“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 24Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 16/322, October 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16322.pdf. 25Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 16/322, October 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16322.pdf. 26“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 27“Assessing the Need for Foreign Currency Reserves,” International Monetary Fund, April 7, 2011, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/POL040711B.htm. “ Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http:// www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 282014 Bond Prospectus. 29“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 30Ethiopia Bond Prospectus, 2014. 31“2015 UNHCR country operations profile – Ethiopia,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e483986.html. “As number of South Sudanese refugees grows, UN relief official urges support to Ethiopia,” UN News Centre, November accessed on October 13, 2015, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49445. 32“Eritreans ‘fleeing conscription drive’ for Ethiopia – UNHCR,” BBC, November 20, 2014, accessed on December 10, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30128002. 704 Ethiopia 33“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 34“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 35“http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx . 36“Ethiopia: Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 14/303, October 2014, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14303.pdf. 37“The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 13/309, October 2013, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13309.pdf. 38“The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 13/309, October 2013, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13309.pdf. 39http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/table-1-human-development-index-and-its-components. 40“The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues,” International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 13/309, October 2013, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13309.pdf. 705 Important Information Published on 24 February 2017. 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