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Institutionen för naturgeografi Deforestation patterns and hummingbird diversity in the Amazon rainforest Felicia Labor Examensarbete grundnivå Geografi, 15 hp GG 191 2016 Förord Denna uppsats utgör Felicia Labors examensarbete i Geografi på grundnivå vid Institutionen för naturgeografi, Stockholms universitet. Examensarbetet omfattar 15 högskolepoäng (ca 10 veckors heltidsstudier). Handledare har varit Simon Jakobsson, Institutionen för naturgeografi, Stockholms universitet. Examinator för examensarbetet har varit Stefano Manzoni, Institutionen för naturgeografi, Stockholms universitet. Författaren är ensam ansvarig för uppsatsens innehåll. Stockholm, den 8 februari 2017 Steffen Holzkämper Chefstudierektor Abstract In recent decades expanding land-use change has caused extensive deforestation of the tropical rainforest inducing large-scale transformation of the landscape patterns across the South American continent. Landscape change is a modification process of the natural forest cover into fragments which generate various ecological impacts. Habitat loss is identified to be a major threat to biodiversity, as it exposes species to the risk of extinction. This study investigates 80 locations within tropical rainforest biomes to examine the landscape change which has occurred from 1993 – 2014. The intention is to identify the impacts of landscape fragmentation on hummingbird species diversity by spatial landscape analysis in GIS and regression modeling. The analysis found that there is no relationship between deforestation and reduction of hummingbird diversity. The results indicate that hummingbird species are not particularly sensitive to landscape change as they have high resilience in regard to forest fragmentation. A potential threshold value of deforestation degree could be identified, up to which hummingbird species richness increased, but locations subjected to over 40% fragmentation were estimated to have lower hummingbird diversity. However, by using the spatial explicit biological data, the analysis indicate that an extinction debt may exist in the landscape, and that future extinctions may be expected to occur in the following decades as consequence of deforestation. Other factors may be as important determining variables for species richness: the spatial scale of the study, the habitat connectivity, hummingbird generalist tendencies. Conclusively, identification of the key factors of deforestation impacts on species diversity is essential for future efficiency in conservation planning and sustainability of the tropical rainforest biodiversity. Keywords: Landscape fragmentation, deforestation, extinction debt, hummingbirds, biodiversity database, spatial landscape analysis, the Amazon rainforest, land-cover change. Contents 1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................1 2. Background ..............................................................................................................................................................2 2.1 Impacts of deforestation and landscape fragmentation on species diversity ...........................2 2.2 Hummingbird taxa.................................................................................................................................4 3. Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................................6 3.1 Study area ...............................................................................................................................................6 3.2 Selection of data.....................................................................................................................................7 3.2.1 Hummingbird data................................................................................................................................7 3.2.2 Geographic data.....................................................................................................................................7 3.3 Data analysis ..........................................................................................................................................7 3.3.1 Forest data ..............................................................................................................................................7 3.3.2 Hummingbird data processing...........................................................................................................9 3.3.3 Hummingbird diversity in relation to forest cover ................................................................... 10 4. Results..................................................................................................................................................................... 11 5. Discussion .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 5.1 Hummingbird diversity in relation to deforestation ................................................................. 16 5.2 Method & data quality ...................................................................................................................... 19 5.3 Future work......................................................................................................................................... 20 6. Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................. 21 7. References ............................................................................................................................................................. 22 8. Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................... 27 1. Introduction The Amazon territory extends across nine national borders located on the South American continent and encompasses the largest tropical rainforest area in the world. The Amazon region consists primarily of tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf rainforest biomes characterized by low seasonal variations, enclosing the Amazon basin. Historical environmental aspects of the Amazon have led to large regional variations in forest types and significant species diversity. The Amazon rainforest is estimated to include approximately 50.000 terrestrial vascular plant species (Hubbell et al., 2008). The Amazon rainforest is one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth and holds a third of the world’s avifauna, containing 1.500 avian species and two endemic avian families, one of them hummingbirds (Trochilidae) (BirdLife International, 2015). During recent decades expanding rainforest deforestation caused by anthropogenic exploitation has generated a large-scale geographical transformation process across the Amazon region. The deforestation process is causing an extensive forest canopy disturbance, resulting in 20% loss of the original rainforest canopy (Abdala, 2015). Tropical deforestation mainly occurs because of expanding infrastructure, mining, logging, pastoral farming and extensive agriculture (Charity et al., 2016). Deforestation generates global scale impacts as it accounts for approximately 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere (Flato et al., 2013). On a regional scale, deforestation changes the landscape structure and create a mosaic landscape pattern containing rainforest patches surrounded by a matrix of altered landscapes. Research in landscape ecology agrees that forest disturbances have vast forms of ecological effects and generate stresses to the ecosystem dynamics of the rainforest region (Peres et al., 2010). Forest-cover disturbance and landscape fragmentation affects the ecosystem functions and generate ecological consequences in terms of habitat deterioration, decreased biomass and alteration of the nutrient cycles (Haddad et al., 2015). Landscape fragmentation means that continuous natural vegetation cover becomes reduced into smaller fragments, a process which induces that a species' habitat is degraded or lost due to isolation, edge effects or because the habitat is not large enough (Mitchell et al., 2015). Habitat degradation means that the habitat remains, but it no longer obtains sufficient quality for a population of a species to ensure viability within it (Fischer & Lindenmayer, 2007). Forest fragmentation and habitat degradation are considered as some of the major threats to biodiversity worldwide as they generate population decline and expose species to the risk of extinction (Brook et al., 2008). Species’ response to landscape change occurs with a certain time-delay, which indicates that the extinction of species takes place gradually. The time-delay of species response to landscape alteration is known as extinction debt, meaning that species could be expected to become extinct in the future as a cause of current or historical habitat loss (Kuussaari et al., 2009). However, the time-delay of extinction allows the opportunity for a conservation window indicating that protection and recovery of the continuous habitat can be implemented (Wearn et al., 2012). Additionally, the time-delay can function as a potential source of error in extinction forecasts (Halley et al., 2014). Habitat loss has a varied impact on different taxonomic groups in the Amazon rainforest as they react on forest disturbance on different time scales. The relaxation time i.e. the response time to a disturbance in a system is for birds estimated to be one decade (Halley et al., 2016). Other factors that make it difficult to identify the relaxation time is that species in the Amazon rainforest have irregular distribution patterns and varied habitat range, which means that the relaxation time between different species varies on both spatial and temporal scale (Brooks et al., 1999). Previous studies have successfully used spatial biological data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to examine spatial species distribution and biodiversity decline on a large-scale (e.g. Beck et al., 2014; Feeley & Silman, 2011; Newbold et al., 2014). As research in landscape ecology continues, it is acknowledged that understanding the parameters which determine a species relaxation time and how fast extinction of species occurs is considered as key for protection of the tropical rainforest biodiversity (Halley & Iwasa, 2011). 1 Progress in the understanding of rainforest disturbance and landscape fragmentation, in terms of avifaunal species richness, could refine conservation techniques and hence reverse the vulnerability of the rainforest biodiversity to prevent endangered species from becoming extinct. Furthermore, this progress is urgent to avoid incorrect estimates of species diversity in rainforest habitats and to gain better insight into the time scale of species extinction. The main objective of this study is, therefore, to conduct a spatial analysis of landscape change due to anthropogenic influence through deforestation of the tropical rainforest biome. The aim is to investigate correlations between land-cover change and forest fragmentation in relation to present-day species richness of hummingbirds. By using freely available geographical and biological data a spatial landscape analysis was performed in a Geographical Information System. The species richness was investigated in 80 study locations within tropical rainforest biomes and further analyzed in relation to the degree of deforestation, comparing past and present forest cover in the landscapes. The intention was to detect the impact extent of deforestation on hummingbird diversity for future efficiency in conservation planning and sustainability of the tropical avifauna. The aim of the study is to answer two research questions: (1) How does species richness of hummingbirds differ between locations of closed-canopy rainforest and rainforest locations exposed to deforestation and landscape fragmentation? (2) What is the potential of using spatially explicit biological data in large-scale analysis of species richness in relation to changing landscape patterns? 2. Background 2.1 Impacts of deforestation and landscape fragmentation on species diversity Landscape ecological studies of species richness in modified landscapes commonly focus on how the changing landscape patterns in tropical forest impacts species richness. Studies of this relationship indicates a general diversity decline in relation to increasing habitat disturbance along with fluctuating response to deforestation and landscape fragmentation between various taxonomic groups (Gardner et al., 2009). Extinction risk of species on a regional scale and the taxonomic variation depend on a number of factors such as the size of the population and number of offspring because it determines the potential for proliferation for the species to further maintain viability (O'Grady et al., 2004). General spatial biodiversity patterns are commonly identified by the species-area relationship (SAR) which indicate that the number of observed species will increase with the size of the sample area (O'Dwyer & Green, 2010). The ecosystem resilience i.e. the capacity of a system to recover after being subjected to disturbance or perturbation and yet sustain its essential functions is an important factor in terms of landscape alteration (Walker et al., 2004). Some of the main features which are identified to regulate the impact degree of deforestation in terms of resilience are the size and shape of the remaining landscape patches (Antongiovanni & Metzger, 2005). Habitat connectivity is identified as another key factor in terms of species resilience to landscape fragmentation and refers to the degree of forest patch isolation and to what extent movement between significant habitat patches is possible (Awade & Metzger, 2008). In accordance, one study demonstrates that habitat connectivity is the main cause generating a negative impact on nectarivorous birds, rather than the size of a remaining forest patch (Martensen et al., 2008). However, evidence suggests that the size of the remaining forest patches play a major part in extinction rates as larger forest patches are found to include higher species diversity than smaller patches (Marini, 2001). An investigation extending over a period of 20 years demonstrated that the extinction rates were reduced in conjunction with increased fragment size (Stouffer et al., 2009). Furthermore, the investigation indicated that more than 30% of the containing species became extinct within habitats of approximately 1 hectare, in comparison to approximately 5% in forest patches of about 100 hectares. 2 Several studies have identified niche breadth i.e. the range of resources utilized by a species as a determining factor in terms of ecological resilience (Swihart et al., 2006), and thus also decide a species geographical range (Slatyer et al., 2013). Geographically separated populations of the same species often occupy different niches in their respective communities. Species that occupy a limited niche breadth are called specialists and species which occupy a wide niche are in turn called generalists (Boulangeat et al., 2012). Generalist species have a tendency to successfully adapt to environments modified by land-use change and establish in new habitats (Ducatez et al., 2015). Specialists are considered to experience a higher risk of extinction than generalist species, as they are more susceptible to landscape modification and habitat loss (Büchi & Vuilleumier, 2014). Furthermore, physiological traits of a species define its dispersal ability, referring to the capability of individuals of a species to move between different sites and habitats and is considered as an important aspect in relation to if a species could occupy a forest fragment at all (Lees & Peres, 2009). The probability that a species dispersal ability is enough to cross habitat boundaries is determined by the distance, the time course of the movement and the landscape structure of the moving path (Fahrig, 2007). Dispersal ability is documented to vary among avian species and is therefore viewed as a vital factor in regard to resilience to landscape fragmentation and habitat loss (Moore et al., 2008). Additionally, research suggests that isolated forest fragments should primarily contain avian species with high dispersal abilities or species with a high tolerance towards a deforested matrix (Lees & Peres, 2008). Another study showed similar evidence of the generalist taxa being relatively unaffected by deforestation and fragmentation degree and found indications that the diversity of generalist species instead were found to increase in areas exposed to deforestation (Pardini et al., 2010). How landscape fragmentation and the lack of habitat connectivity affect avian species in tropical rainforests are also determined by the species dependency on a certain forest ecosystem, species which relies on the dense closed-canopy forest are identified to be more vulnerable to fragmentation (dos Anjos et al., 2011). Reduction of species richness has been found to have a strong correlation with landscape changes, as a natural variation of species richness occurs dependent on the quantity of biomass and vegetation type (Schulze et al., 2004). Additionally, avian species richness is documented to decline according to a landscape disturbance gradient, with higher species diversity in the mature closed-canopy forest in comparison to secondary forest, with a further decline in relation to forest conversion intensity in plantations, cropland and pasture (Philpott et al., 2008). The level of endemic species abundance has also been demonstrated to decline according to the same forest conversion gradient (Waltert et al., 2011). However, another study suggests that pasture dominated landscapes are more efficient than landscapes dominated by crops in terms of conservation, hence the fragmentation patterns vary among these in such way that pastures comprise larger fragments than cropland; thus not affecting species richness as negatively (Carvalho et al., 2009). Landscape fragmentation generates smaller forest areas which also limit the habitat range and lead to higher competition for resources along with isolation. The process of landscape fragmentation could lead to overexploitation of resources and reduction of breeding and nesting opportunities that could strongly impact the viability of a species and the ecosystem dynamics over time (Saunders et al., 1991). Compilation of the results from 37 previous studies of avian diversity in relation to habitat disturbance in tropical rainforests has showed that approximately an equal number of cases demonstrated that species diversity increased or decreased in relation to degree of landscape modification, and also found that research conducted in large-scale sampling areas had a tendency to have a higher avian diversity, and small-scale spatial studies in areas less than 25 hectares generated much lower diversity (Hill & Hamer, 2004). However, several studies conclude significant evidence for this correlation pattern; that the determining factor in studies of biodiversity in relation to habitat disturbance is the spatial scale at which the studies are performed, thus generating fluctuating results of the species richness (Dumbrell et al., 2008). Another study suggests that extinction rates increase tenfold, according to a decrease of the fragmented area by 1000 (Ferraz et al., 2003). 3 Other studies have examined forest fragmentation in terms of threshold values of deforestation rate and found indications that habitats in areas deforested between 60 – 70 % to host a significantly lower number of species than regions with a larger proportion of continuous closed-canopy forest (Ochoa‐Quintero et al., 2015). Many deforestation studies address the aspect of deforestation and forest fragmentation in terms of edge effect as a negative consequence that hence could influence the dynamics of forest microclimate, carbon storage and tree mortality (Laurance et al., 2011). Most species of understory birds in the Amazon rainforest are identified to be edge-averse and are generally negatively affected by the land-use change in terms of forest fragmentation (Powell et al., 2015). Indications suggest that the impact degree of edge effect on the avifauna depend on the size of the remaining forest patches because it determines the edge quantity, along with the species dependency on the closed-canopy primary forest (Lees & Peres, 2006). However, some studies suggest that forest edges may also favor some avian species, especially nectarivorous species (Rodewald & Brittingham, 2004). According to other studies related to forest edge impacts on avian species, evidence suggests that hummingbirds are not as susceptible to forest fragmentation as other avian families and remain rather unaffected by landscape fragmentation (Stouffer et al., 2006; Kennedy et al., 2010). The reason that hummingbirds are resilient to landscape change is estimated to be that they have a habitat preference for forest ecotones and therefore tend to have a high abundance at forest edges (Banks-Leite et al., 2010), presumably due to increased light at the forest edges favoring flowering and thus the access of nectar. However, forest edges also tend to have a higher abundance of predators, generating an increased risk for bird species at ecotone habitats to be subjected to predation (Gillies & St Clair, 2010). Regional hummingbird abundance has been identified to have a strong correlation with spatial fluctuations of resources and flowering patterns along with temperature variation (Pansarin & Pedro, 2016). Vegetation dynamics and changing the structure in rainforest ecosystems are closely linked to climatic feedback in terms of fluxes of energy and moisture (Bonan et al., 2003). Deforestation generates changing photosynthesis rates, alteration of the carbon cycle and vapor exchange to the atmosphere causing a large-scale impact on a global scale (Law et al., 2002). Modification of the atmospheric moisture could result in reduced precipitation and fluctuating humidity, which in turn could affect the seasonality and climate on a large-scale (Bala et al., 2007). Hydrological fluctuations in the Amazon basin will control the rainfall pattern, and thus impacts the occurrence of leafing, flowering, and fruiting and hence control the timing and spatial distribution of food resources for avian species (Beja et al., 2010). Decreased humidity and rainfall could, in turn, generate prolonged droughts increasing the risk of forest fires, a form of disturbance not included in rainforest ecosystems resilience (Laurance & Williamson, 2001). 2.2 Hummingbird taxa The Hummingbird (Trochilidae) family is the second largest avian family on Earth. Hummingbirds origin from the lowlands of South America and historical analysis show that hummingbird species have invaded the Andean mountain region and other primary landmasses more than 30 times creating complex distribution patterns, that lead to the geographical species distribution of today (McGuire et al., 2007). The avian family includes approximately 361 species of hummingbirds, whereof 274 species are found in South America. Hummingbird species richness is documented to decrease with altitudinal zonation and fluctuating vegetation, hence reduce in relation to decreased abundance of terrestrial herbs, shrubs, and vines at higher elevation (Buzato et al., 2000). However, this general pattern doesn’t account for the remarkable species richness of the montane region of the Andes, where the elevation instead has generated varied topographical features which have promoted high speciation rates (Rahbek et al., 2007). Hummingbirds have developed a specific plant-mutualism during co-evolution for 22 million years and are specialist nectarivorous species providing an essential process in the functioning of the ecosystems as pollinators (Dalsgaard et al., 2011). However, research has identified hummingbird pollination patterns which indicate that they also could be considered as generalists since they have a tendency to pollinate non-ornithophilous species of flowers (Rodrigues & Araujo, 2011). 4 Another study examined hummingbird foraging of 62 plant species of primary epiphytes but also included some shrubs, lianas, and trees and found that hummingbirds foraged 95% of the investigated species, but only pollinated about 68% (Rocca-de-Andrade, 2006). Approximately 7.000 species of flowers belonging to 65 plant families are estimated to depend on pollination from one or several species of hummingbirds (Abrahamczyk & Renner, 2015). Hummingbird habitat selection occurs according to foraging determined by the preference of floral morphological traits, identified to be plant species with diurnal anthesis, red colored inclined flowers and tubular shape (Rodrigues & Rodrigues, 2014). Another factor determining hummingbird foraging is possible nectar accessibility without landing as they are highly aerial birds with adapted wing stroke mechanism, keeping them flight hovering constantly (Bleiweiss, 2009). Possibly the most important hummingbird habitat preferences are large volumes of nectar available, as they are known to have some of the highest metabolic rates among vertebrates and ingest nectar which almost only contains pure sugars (Chen & Welch, 2014). Hummingbirds are territorial birds and exhibit aggressive defense patterns of the resources within their selected habitat, which are estimated to be about 1.6 hectares (Abrahamczyk & Kessler, 2010). According to The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™, 56 species of hummingbirds are threatened to the risk of extinction in the next century, among those species ten are critically endangered indicating an estimated 50% risk of those species to become extinct within ten years and two species already becoming so (IUCN, 2016), highlighting the urgent need for operative conservation efforts. 5 3. Methodology 3.1 Study area Figure 1. Distribution of the selected study sites in the Amazon rainforest region. The study region is located on the northern half of the South American continent and includes the Amazon rainforest and encircling locations within terrestrial biomes of evergreen tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest. The biomes of the study region are characterized by humid tropical climate and annual temperatures ranging from 21 - 30°C with an average temperature of 25°C (Christopherson & Birkeland, 2015). The Amazon drainage basin has considerable precipitation levels ranging from 180 - 400 cm annually, with a wet climate all year (Costa & Foley, 1998). The carbon absorption capacity of the Amazon rainforest vegetation is estimated to be approximately 1.5 billion tons annually (Lewis et al., 2011). The Amazon region’s landscape development has characterized the ecological evolution of the rainforest which is influenced by tectonic uplift and the formation of the Andes, which has formed large scale elevation differences ranging from lowland <500 m to the high mountain peaks that rise to almost 7000 m above sea level. The forest types of the Amazon are partly generated by denudation processes of the Andean Mountains, hence producing 95% of the sediment and nutrient deposit throughout the region (Volkoff et al., 2012). The sediment deposit generates different soil characteristics which have generated a forest type gradient across Amazon basin of primary and secondary forest types (McClain & Naiman, 2008). The Amazon lowlands have been covered by closed-canopy moist forest during at least the last two glacial and interglacial cycles, which have enabled the development of the region’s vast biodiversity (Colinvaux et al., 2000). 6 The Amazon rainforest region is considered to comprise one of the most valuable geographic systems on the planet, as it is regarded as a biodiversity hotspot with a high level of endemism (Myers et al., 2000) and possesses vital ecosystem services on a local and global scale (Foley et al., 2007). The Amazon rainforest thereby has an inherent high conservation value combined with high deforestation rates and extensive landscape fragmentation making it a relevant study region in terms of identification of extinction debt. 3.2 Selection of data 3.2.1 Hummingbird data The taxonomic delimitation of the study constitutes of Neotropical hummingbird species from the Trochilidae family. Birds are the most well documented taxonomic group in the Amazon region, and hummingbirds are considered to be one of the most recorded avian groups in the Neotropics, with few new species discovered since 1950’s (Rahbek & Graves, 2000). Therefore, hummingbirds are relevant to select because there is a large amount of data to accurately use in the analysis of species richness according to the method used in this study. The record of hummingbird species distribution was collected using The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. All geographical hummingbird data used in this study were collected from January 2006 – September 2016 and based on human observations, machine observations or preserved specimens. The hummingbird data is geo-referenced by coordinates within each of the selected study sites and compromises 70202 observations of totally 203 different species of hummingbirds. 3.2.2 Geographic data The geographical boundary of the study was retrieved from a dataset consisting of Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World (TEOW) classified into 14 biomes. The data that were selected from the ecoregions were reclassified into a new layer that consisted of terrestrial biomes of evergreen tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest in South America. The TEOW data was obtained from The Nature Conservancy (Olson et al., 2001). The land cover information datasets used in this study consist of tree canopy cover from year 2000 and global forest cover loss from between 2000 – 2014. The land cover dataset is originally derived from the time-series analysis of 654,178 Landsat 7 ETM+ Landsat 8 LDCM images, characterizing global forest extent and forest cover change from 2000 through 2014 presented in 500 meters spatial resolution (Hansen et al., 2015). The historical land cover data that was used in the analysis were from 1992 – 1993 presented with 1 km spatial resolution (Hansen et al., 2003). 3.3 Data analysis 3.3.1 Forest data The spatial landscape analysis and data processing were executed in the Geographical Information System (ArcMap 10.4.1” ESRI 2016) and Microsoft Excel 2013. The basis for the study consists of 80 study sites selected within terrestrial biomes of evergreen tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest in South America. Primarily the 80 study sites were selected according to a great geographical range to accurately represent the tropical rainforest biomes. All of the sampled study areas consisted of circular landscape patches with 20 km in diameter, with an area of 314.16 km2 (31416 hectares). The potential study areas were selected to overlap with regions of available hummingbird distribution data. The selected areas were delimited by circular polygons converted to a new layer, this was done with the raster geoprocessing tool, a function applied to select a new delimited data extent only containing the data within each study sites. The spatial landscapes analysis was performed by remote sensing vegetation analysis of two geographic datasets of forest cover from the year 2000 and 1993 along with forest cover loss from 2000 – 2014. 7 The forest cover data from the year 2000 was designated by tree canopy density, defined as canopy closure for all vegetation taller than 5m in height and further reclassified into landscape areas of forest > 50% density and forest with < 50% density within each study location. The dataset of forest cover loss 2000 – 2014 was classified into regions of forest loss, referring to locations subjected to stand-replacement disturbance, or a change from a forest to a non-forest state, and locations unexposed to forest loss classified into no forest loss. Furthermore, to identify the total quantity of deforestation within each study area The Raster Calculator tool was applied to get new Map Algebra values. Figure 2. The data processing steps of the landscape analysis of the deforestation degree within the study locations. A: Forest density <50% from 2000 (marked in white). B: Forest loss occurrence from 2000 – 2014 (marked in red). C: The union from the A and B datasets combined. The dataset variables representing < 50% forest density from the 2000 forest cover raster (A) was combined with the forest loss values from the forest loss 2000 – 2014 dataset raster (B) to create the union of the two datasets (C). This was done to achieve the present forest cover of 2014 and detect the total quantity of deforestation that has occurred until then within each study area. The union (C) was acquired by examining each pixel of the raster datasets (A) and (B) individually and calculating the result through the or-operation with the above-described conditions, as seen in equation 1 (Figure 2). 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵=𝐶 (Eq. 1) Furthermore, the union data (C) was examined by applying the Zonal Histogram function in ArcGIS. This function creates a table of the frequency distribution of cell values from a raster. The zones used to define the raster areas were polygons encompassing the 80 circular study locations. The Zonal histogram function calculated the pixel quantity of continuous closed-canopy forest (marked in black) and the pixel quantity of deforested land (marked in red) within each study location. Finally, the percentage of the land surface containing closed-canopy forest and deforested areas were then calculated. By calculation of pixel quantity representing the fragmented landscape in relation to the continuous closedcanopy forest, the study areas were divided into two categories. The study areas were divided in half, and 40 of the sample areas were categorized as primarily dominated by continuous closed-canopy forest cover where less than <13 % deforestation has occurred since the year 2000, representing a low deforestation degree. The other half of the sample areas were designated to represent landscape patches exposed to a higher deforestation degree with more than >13 % of the total 314.16 km2 being deforested since the year 2000. The land cover data from 1992 – 1993 was presented in 13 land cover classes consisting of different forest types, grassland, shrubland, cropland, and bare ground. The land cover dataset from 1993 included another classification than the land cover dataset from 2000. This classification difference in the datasets could lead to potential errors when comparing the data. The raster data from 1993 was included in the study nevertheless since it was the most accurate historical land cover data available to examine land use change. To eliminate the above-described problem the 1993 raster was reclassified to better fit the requested land cover features. 8 The first class included forest types and closed shrub values representing forested areas, and open land-cover types and bare ground in the second class representing deforested areas. The reclassification enables comparable results from the raster data values from 1993, 2000 and 2014. The Zonal Histogram function was further applied to quantify the pixel of the two categories of forested and deforested areas. An error of spatial factors encountered in the analysis, depending on the current data quality, was the spatial sampling resolution. The geographical raster data of the land-cover of 1993 has 1 km spatial resolution, and the raster data of forest cover from 2000 and forest loss from 2014 has 500 m spatial resolution. The resolution issue resulted in that some of the study locations obtained negative change in deforestation (Δ deforestation) percentage values, which would then indicate that extensive reforestation occurred in many locations, which can be assumed to have emerged due to differences in resolution and data values. To eliminate this source of error of intractable data, the study locations which obtained negative percentage values of Δ deforestation, therefore, were excluded from the regression analysis of deforestation change from 1993 – 2014. 3.3.2 Hummingbird data processing The georeferenced hummingbird data were analyzed within the 80 study areas, providing data of the total quantity of hummingbirds individuals recorded in each location along with the number of species. Standardization of the data of hummingbird species richness was implemented to eliminate a potential source of error that comes from the data quantity available for each study location. The logarithmical regression approach could be used because a logarithmic relation between species richness and data quantity is expected. As the data quantity grows the possibility of finding more species should grow as well. However, the more species that are found the more acquired data is necessary to find additional species until the maximum possible species are found. This means that the approximation function should have a high derivative for low x-values, a low derivative for high x-values and eventually converge when x goes to infinity. These are all true for a logarithmic function. Without standardizing the data, the study sites with a high quantity of data acquisition would be biased and consequently show greater species richness when analyzing the deforestation and fragmentation impact on species richness. The data was standardized in two different ways: by using the natural logarithm as standard and using the function achieved by the logarithmic regression as described in equation 2 and 3, respectively. 𝑦 𝑦𝑠1 = ln 𝑥 (Eq. 2) where y stands for species richness, x is the data quantity and y s1 is the standardized species richness. 𝑦𝑠2 = 𝑦+𝑐 −𝑘 (Eq. 3) 𝑦 = 𝑘 ln 𝑥 − 𝑐 (Eq. 4) ln 𝑥 where y stands for species richness, x is the data quantity, ys2 is the standardized species richness and c and k are the variables describing the approximation function achieved from the logarithmic regression (Eq. 4) between species richness and the number of individuals. The variable k is subtracted from the standard value y s2 to offset and center the standard around the approximation. Consequently, study sites with lower species richness than approximated are presented as negative numbers, study sites with greater species richness as positive values and study sites with species richness equal to the approximation as zero values. Additionally, the magnitude of the new standardized value shows the deviation from the approximation. 9 By using the standardized value rather than the raw data value to describe each study site’s value of species richness, the logarithmic relation between richness and data quantity is accounted for. Study sites where the number of species found was greater than the logarithmic approximation function will yield a higher standardized value than the study sites where the number of species was lower than approximated. Consequently, a study site might yield a higher value of species richness than another even though the actual amount of species would actually be lesser. The logarithmic function achieved with the regression analysis of species richness including all the 80 study locations in relation to available data quantity, is used in the standardization where equation 3 is used, instead of the natural logarithm. The advantage of using the approximation achieved through the logarithmic regression is that each study point yields a value of richness based on the deviation towards the approximation function instead of the deviation towards the natural logarithm. The approximation achieved was used to standardize the species richness with equation 3 of the study locations. 3.3.3 Hummingbird diversity in relation to forest cover The resulting data from the spatial analysis of species richness in relation to deforestation degree were further examined by statistical regression analysis. Primarily the raw data of the hummingbird species richness observations calculated from the 80 study locations containing either a high degree of closed-canopy rainforest or high deforestation degree, was examined in three different regression models, in relation to available hummingbird data quantity retrieved from The Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. Furthermore, another regression analysis was conducted of the standardized hummingbird species richness achieved from equation 2, in relation to the current amount of closed-canopy forest and deforestation in year 2014 to investigate a potential correlation between species richness in relation to the degree of deforestation. Additionally, the resulting standardized species richness calculated by using equation 3 was further used to conduct another regression analysis of hummingbird species richness in relation to the percentage of the land surface subjected to deforestation change from 1993 – 2014 (Δ deforestation), and thus shows the increase in deforestation during this time, regardless of the amount of deforestation that has occurred at each location before 1993. A polynomial regression model has used because it had the highest coefficient of determination. Finally, a qualitative analysis was conducted investigating the specific landscape conditions of the four locations that obtained the highest hummingbird species richness and their surrounding matrix, according to the standardized data achieved by equation 2. This was done to enable a closer analysis of the specific landscape conditions in each location according to the total deforestation that has occurred until 2014, including land deforested before 1993 as well, to investigate other features that may determine the species richness of hummingbirds. 10 4. Results Species richness of the study areas with low deforestation degree 60 Species richness (raw data) 50 40 30 20 y = 6,8211ln(x) - 12,056 R² = 0,8131 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Hummingbird data quantity 2500 3000 3500 Figure 3. The regression model shows the calculated raw data species richness on the y-axis and the available hummingbird data quantity (GBIF) on the x-axis. Each of the points represents data collected from one study area. The regression demonstrates a logarithmic correlation between species richness and the available data quantity of areas with low forest deforestation degree. According to the regression analysis, there is a non-linear relationship between the variables of species richness and data quantity. The approximation achieved from the regression demonstrates that it exists a positive logarithmic correlation between the species richness and data quantity at study sites of low deforestation degree (Figure 3). The regression shows that the coefficient of determination is high and that approximately 81 % of the hummingbird species richness variation could be explained by the data quantity available. 11 Species richness of the study areas with high deforestation degree 40 Species richness (raw data) 35 30 25 20 15 y = 5,88ln(x) - 8,2524 R² = 0,6691 10 5 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Hummingbird data quantity 1400 1600 1800 Figure 4. The regression model shows the raw data of hummingbird species richness presented on the y-axis and the available hummingbird data quantity (GBIF) on the x-axis. Data from each study location represent one point in the model. The model demonstrates a logarithmic correlation between species richness and the available data quantity of areas with high deforestation degree. The second regression model shows that it also exists a positive logarithmic correlation between hummingbird species richness in each location, in relation to the hummingbird data quantity available (Figure 4). The R2 value achieved in the regression model indicates that 66 % of the variance in the calculated amount of species in each location is explained by the available data quantity. This shows that it is a slightly lower correlation to the available amount of hummingbird data in study locations of higher deforestation degree in relation to locations with lower deforestation degree. The following regression analysis shows the result of the first two regression models combined, as it includes the data of all study locations in the same model (Figure 5). The result shows that there is a logarithmic correlation between hummingbird species richness and quantity of available hummingbird data. The coefficient of determination indicates that the variance in a number of hummingbird species in each study site could be explained by the data quantity available by approximately 76 %. 12 Species richness of all study areas in relation to data quantity 60 Species richness (raw data) 50 40 30 y = 6,5155ln(x) - 10,79 R² = 0,7682 20 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Hummingbird data quantity 3000 3500 4000 Figure 5. The regression model shows raw data of the hummingbird species richness presented on the y-axis correlated to the available hummingbird data quantity (GBIF) on the x-axis. The data from each location is presented as one point in the regression. The model demonstrates a logarithmic correlation between species richness and the available data quantity of all study areas included in the study. Species richness of the study areas correlated to degree of deforestation 8 y = -0,487x + 3,9491 R² = 0,0044 Species richness ys1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Deforestation 2014 (%) Figure 6. The regression model demonstrates the correlation between the standardized species richness (ys1), presented on the y-axis in relation to the degree of deforestation in all study areas on the x-axis. The data from each study location represents one point in the regression model. Following regression model demonstrates the calculation of the standardized species richness y s1, achieved by applying the equation 2, presented on the y-axis in relation to forest deforestation degree on the x-axis. Each point in the model shows the relation between percentage forest loss and standardized species richness. 13 The approximation achieved from the regression indicates that there is no correlation between species richness and degree of deforestation. The R2 value suggests that the coefficient of determination a possible correlation is 0.44 %. Δ Deforestation 10 - 70% since 1993 - 2014 3 y = -7,6944x2 + 6,4814x - 1,0322 R² = 0,0563 2,5 Species richness ys2 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 10% -0,5 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% -1 -1,5 -2 Δ Deforestation between 1993 - 2014 (%) Figure 7. The polynomial regression model shows the standardized hummingbird species richness (ys2) on the y-axis. In relation to the deforestation change between 10 – 70% which has occurred from 1993 – 2014 as Δ deforestation on the x-axis. Each point in the model represents data from one study location. The regression analysis of deforestation from 1993 – 2014 includes only the study locations with an increased Δ deforestation value between 10 – 70 %, the increased percentage of the deforestation that took place within those years. Because some of the study locations obtained negative percentage values of Δ deforestation, they were excluded (listed in appendix I) (Figure 7). The result of the regression model demonstrates that the hummingbird species richness of the locations included, at first increases slightly between deforestation degrees of 10 – 40%, and then decreases when reaching deforestation degrees above 40%. This regression thus demonstrates that the species diversity of hummingbirds at first appear to increase as a result of deforestation, and then decrease at a threshold of 40% deforestation within a location. 14 Figure 8. Location of the four circular study areas with the highest standardized species richness (ys2) and the surrounding landscape matrix, classified into three land-cover categories as closed-canopy forest (marked in black), deforestation before 2000 (marked in white) and deforestation after 2000 (marked in red). Satellite data (Hansen et al., 2013). The four circular landscape areas are assigned with letters from A – D, where A represents the area with highest standardized hummingbird diversity, with a decreasing species richness towards D. The result of qualitative analysis demonstrates that the four locations obtaining the highest species richness in the study are located within two countries, Peru and Colombia (Figure 8). The surrounding landscape matrix 2014 of the four areas, further indicate that the landscape structure encircling location A – C consist of a large proportion of closedcanopy rainforest. Location A had a low deforestation degrees within the study area of 2.42%. Location B just slightly higher deforestation degree within the study area of 4.28%. Location C had a deforestation degree of 3.05%. Showing that the tree locations of highest hummingbird species richness have not been exposed to high deforestation rates. Location D, on the other hand, has quite a high deforestation degree of 28.73 % within the study area. 15 5. Discussion 5.1 Hummingbird diversity in relation to deforestation Interestingly, the overall result from the landscape analysis shows evidence that species richness does not have any correlation with the degree of deforestation and forest fragmentation in the landscape. In contrast, the result of this study indicates that it generally does not seem to affect the species diversity of hummingbirds much at all. Accordingly, it could be considered as good news, as it suggests that hummingbirds have a high resilience to the ongoing deforestation process in the Amazon rainforest region. Earlier studies suggest that bird species relaxation times often extend over a 10 year period (Halley et al., 2016). However, this study examines the deforestation process that has occurred since 1993, a time period of approximately 22 years. In relation to this, it could be expected to find hummingbird species decline in areas exposed to deforestation. Nevertheless, little evidence of hummingbird extinctions from the impact of forest fragmentation has been obtained in this research. First of all, the two initial regression models demonstrate that there exists a strong correlation between the species quantity found in each study location in regard to how many observations of hummingbirds that were made in the first place (the GBIF database). The regression models demonstrate that approximately 81 % and 66 % of the species richness variation could be explained by the data quantity for the low and high deforested areas, respectively. However, the data could also be interpreted to indicate that it is generally higher species occurrence in locations exposed to low fragmentation degrees. This conclusion is derived from the difference of maximum species found in a location exposed to high or low fragmentation respectively. The first model representing locations of low deforestation shows that the maximum number of species found were 55 in relation to 2073 data points. However, the maximum species richness in locations of high deforestation degree were 35 species, even though they were found in locations with 547 data points. This could thus be interpreted as that locations of high fragmentation degree contain more species. It may also depend on that it is probably easier to locate and observe hummingbirds in the less dense rainforest. Altogether, 203 hummingbird species were included in the study, out of the approximately 274 hummingbird species known to be found in South America. This high availability of data is noteworthy as it indicates that the potential of using biological data from the GBIF database is great, and could be considered reliable since a lot of species is represented in the data. On the other hand, what can be determined from the two regression models is the fact that there is evidently a higher abundance of hummingbirds in terms of quantity in locations with lower deforestation degree, in relation to study areas subjected to high deforestation degree. The maximum number of hummingbird observed within one of the highly deforested study location were 1654 individuals, in comparison with a maximum 3429 hummingbirds observed in a location of low deforestation degree. This variation thus leads to that there is more than twice as much data available in study locations with low deforestation degree. If the significant differences of available raw data, in terms of both quantity and number of species found, in reality, depend on whether one has been searching for hummingbirds at different extent at locations of high fragmentation degree, or if it simply were not as many species to find there, remains uncertain. Although, this spatial species distribution pattern could be expected since forest fragmentation induces reduction of the forest patch sizes and hence also geographical habitat range, in turn suggesting that the number of observed species would be lower in regions exposed to landscape fragmentation according to the speciesarea relationship (O'Dwyer & Green, 2010). However, to obtain a clearer picture of the variables determining hummingbird diversity, a closer qualitative analysis of the four areas which obtained the highest species richness was conducted. The result provides information about the geographical landscape conditions of the four locations along with the surrounding matrix. What could be stated from the analysis of the species-richest study locations is that they, to a great extent, are surrounded by a landscape largely compromised by closed-canopy rainforest. According to the nature of the encircling landscape, this would suggest that the habitat amount and connectivity is especially high in the first three areas (A – C, Figure 8) with the highest species richness. This result indicates that the character of the landscape structure surrounding a forest habitat is important for the number of hummingbird species occupying it. This analysis would cohere in accordance with previously identified patterns of habitat connectivity as a key factor in terms of species richness of nectarivorous birds (Martensen et al., 2008). 16 Despite these indications, approximately a third of the study area of location D has been exposed to deforestation along with a relatively large proportion of its matrix. Looking at the subsequent study areas with high hummingbird species richness (Appendix I), they have equivalent high deforestation degrees ranging between approximately 20 – 40 %. The regression model of the Δ deforestation from 1993 – 2014 demonstrates that increasing fragmentation rates with >10 % change initially seems to favor hummingbird species richness, in relation to habitats subjected to >40 % fragmentation change, which in turn indicates to have a negative impact as the hummingbird species diversity declines thereafter. This indication, if still vague, argues for the existence of a threshold value of deforestation degree in terms of a potential optimum fragmentation rate. If more data would exist representing higher Δ deforestation degrees, the regression would hypothetically decline further along with higher deforestation rates. These interpretations indicate that it appears that hummingbirds possibly benefit from a certain degree of fragmentation, but at a threshold value of especially high deforestation degree, fragmentation would instead have a negative impact. The threshold value estimated in this study correlates with the qualitative analysis of the study areas with highest species richness, and should tentatively be around 40%. Since many of the locations with high species richness have been exposed to approximately 20 – 40 % deforestation, although seemingly resilient with continuingly high species richness, strengthens the reliability of the data showing that hummingbirds seem to benefit of deforestation at first, but that species diversity declines after a certain threshold value (40%). Previous studies have also highlighted deforestation thresholds values as an interesting parameter and managed to show that species richness declines in the area first when they become exposed to a deforestation degrees of 60 - 70% (Ochoa‐Quintero et al., 2015). In the context of the suggestion by Ochoa-Quintero et al. (2015) the threshold found in this study represents deforestations values in terms of changing deforestation degree from 1993 – 2014. This means that the degree of exposure in each location could be higher, as deforestation may have occurred before 1993, which opens the possibility that the threshold of 40% also could be greater. Most avian species found in the rainforest is generally known to be negatively affected by deforestation, regardless the degree, in terms of abundance and mostly evade forest edges (Powell et al., 2015).However, studies of avian diversity have identified nectarivorous species to be significantly less susceptible to landscape change in relation to other taxa (Stouffer et al., 2006; Kennedy et al., 2010).One explanation for this is that hummingbirds are found to be favored by forest fragmentation, as they have a habitat preference for forest ecotones (Banks-Leite et al., 2010). In accordance with the result of this study, previous research has found evidence indicating that hummingbird, in fact, is favored by forest fragmentation (Rodewald & Brittingham, 2004). The specific characteristics of hummingbirds seem to have significant importance for their low susceptibility to modified landscapes. Initially, hummingbirds are considered to be specialist nectarivorous and plays an important part for ecosystem functionalities as pollinators (Dalsgaard et al., 2011). However, the apparent variation of hummingbird abundance between locations of high versus low fragmentation degree may be caused by the degree of specialization among hummingbird species. Study findings suggest that some hummingbird species have developed generalist tendencies over time (Rodrigues & Araujo, 2011), and are identified to forage a wide variety of plant species divergent from their general flower preferences (Rocca-de-Andrade, 2006; Rodrigues & Rodrigues, 2014). Extending generalist behavior of hummingbirds would, in turn, mean that hummingbirds are developing a greater adaptability for landscape change, as they are less limited to a narrow range of resources. This would also mean that the potential geographical range of hummingbirds would thus also be enlarged (Slatyer et al., 2013). Land-use change is identified to enable extensive benefits for generalist species, as they are less susceptible to habitat modification (Büchi & Vuilleumier, 2014) and has high resilience in habitats subjected to disturbances (Ducatez et al., 2015) and also identified to proliferate in habitats subjected to deforestation (Pardini et al., 2010). These factors regarding generalist adaptabilities suggest that the niche breadth may be an essential variable which has led to hummingbird capability to successfully occupy fragmented forest habitats. 17 Earlier studies have also identified niche breadth as a vital factor in regard to ecological resilience (Swihart et al., 2006) and hummingbirds are known to effectively recognize floristic patterns and detect resource fluctuation (Cotton, 2007) as they could take advantage of in adaptation to habitats subjected to landscape change. Forest fragmentation is a process which is found to reduce the habitat size and lead to higher competition for resources within the ecosystem (Saunders et al., 1991) a process earlier observed to generate behavioral change in terms of foraging as a hummingbird species natural niche is forced to change or extend in order to satisfy the high demand of nectar for hummingbird motoric functionalities (Chen & Welch, 2014). Presumably, as it takes large quantities of nectar to keep a hummingbird in hovering flight to travel far distances, it would be estimated that their dispersal ability is rather limited depending on the matrix in between forest habitats. As for this, habitat connectivity would be closely linked to the dependency of the vegetation type comprising the matrix. A natural diversity decline has been identified to exist in relation to change of the vegetation structure (Schulze et al., 2004), as it becomes more homogeneous and plant species decreases, consequently, it simultaneously occurs a decline of other species that depend on them. This pattern is significantly distinct in comparison to mature closed-canopy forest and landscapes under anthropogenic influence. However, apart from the landscape structure, the size of the continuous forest patches is vital. As it determines the extent of forest edges and could be affecting the habitat connectivity as well. Several studies suggest that extinction rates decrease in accordance to the size of a forest patch (Marini, 2001; Stouffer et al., 2009), inspiring new research idea as described in the future work section. Land-use change and altered vegetation type thus affect species dependent on a specific ecosystem and is proved to locally influence species with narrow niche breadth the most. Furthermore, the vegetation features are of importance in consideration to large-scale impacts of deforestation as well. Deforestation worldwide is known to cause approximately 20% of the annual greenhouse gas emissions (Flato et al, 2013), at the same time the Amazon rainforest alone is estimated to absorb 1.5 tons carbon annually (Lewis et al., 2011). The Amazon, therefore, holds an important function as a carbon sink, which hence could reverse stresses of climate change. Reduction of biomass generates further complex impacts on ecosystems. Atmospheric fluxes of energy, moisture, and carbon are closely linked to the vegetation dynamics (Bonan et al., 2003); alteration of the biomass hence affect the dynamics of the atmospheric fluxes. In a long-term perspective, changing landscape patterns may result in extending large-scale impact from deforestation if the precipitation levels and humidity fluctuate in the region as it can modify the seasonality of the region (Bala et al., 2007). Seasonal variation and precipitation change will, in turn, affect the spatial distribution of food resources for hummingbirds as the distribution of flowering and nectar depends on hydrological patterns (Beja et al., 2010). Regional hummingbird abundance is found to be closely linked to fluctuating resources, access to nectar and temperature variations (Pansarin & Pedro, 2016). In relations to this spatial correlation, it could be determined that the dynamics of hummingbird diversity will be affected by fluctuations of temperature and humidity in the long run, although indirectly, as a consequence of deforestation as it influences large-scale climate change. Increased climate change, in turn, leads to extensive environmental impact worldwide. 18 5.2 Method & data quality Figure 9. Showing the raw data of hummingbird distribution available from the GBIF database based on individuals observed, collected from January 2006 – September 2016. One of the main complications that arose in the choice of method was data quality issues, caused by the landscape condition of the areas examined together with high data occurrence in selective parts of the Amazon region. To investigate the impact of deforestation degree in terms of species richness in a sufficient way, equally available data would be needed spanning over areas within all deforestation degrees. Consequently, the statistical problem that occurs in this study is that 33 study areas compromises of quite low deforestation degrees <10 % and 33 study areas with mediate deforestation degree of approximately 10 – 28% and only 14 of the study locations are exposed to >30 % deforestation. Therefore, it is probably difficult to find statistical correlations, since the various amount of data is available for different sample categories and generates data biased to locations of low deforestation degree. Additionally, the approximation function achieved will be over-fitted for low deforestation degree and contain great variance for high deforestation degrees. The delimitation of the study areas at 13 % deforestation, with 40 areas that have either higher or lower deforestation degrees than 13%, is questionable. The division was implemented because 13% deforestation is the median value of the study areas. This may cause misinterpretation of the correlation between species richness and data quantity as areas with closely adjacent deforestation degrees are considered separately (Figure 3 and 4). However, two separate regression analysis were conducted with the study areas delimited at 30% deforestation instead. The first regression was created with 66 of the study areas exposed to <30% deforestation and the second with 13 of the study areas exposed to >30% deforestation. The regressions showed a very similar result as the 13% delimitation regressions, therefore the problem with a 13% delimitation seemed less significant. Mainly because all study areas were analyzed together in all the other regression analysis in this study. Nevertheless, despite the uneven distribution of available data the selection of study locations has been determined according to a wide geographical range, in order to get a representative selection of the Amazon region. The distribution of hummingbird data argues for the selected study boundary, to include encircling tropical rainforest outside the Amazon borders (Figure 9). 19 The large variety of available data from different regions in the Amazon ought to have various technical and territorial explanations. Primarily it may be explained by different land use factors and land-owning rights, which in turn affects the accessibility of an area. The map of data distribution indicates that a high amount of data is located on the west coast of the Amazon and quite an absence of data in the central Amazon, in contrast, provides evidence that research is carried out selectively in concentrated areas. The geographical difference of data may be due to topographical factors that are generating impassable terrain. The existence of adjacent infrastructure also affects the availability of a location that enables the possibility for research. Regions where forestry or mining is actively conducted or where the land is used for farming or ranching will unlikely have a scientific priority or permitted access to unauthorized scientists. The data distribution could also occur due to cultural aspects of land ownership in respect of indigenous peoples. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) is an international open data infrastructure containing data published by scientific institutions worldwide. The use of secondary data requires a fundamental trust to academics contributing with scientific biological data to the GBIF. Since the biological data sampled in the studies may have been conducted in various ways and with different premises that could cause deficiencies in relation to whether the data represents the real biological distribution patterns or not. Selection bias could easily occur due to the fact that the quantity of recorded hummingbirds and the geographical distribution is naturally inconsistent throughout the Amazon (Buzato et al., 2000), with the Andean mountain range being identified as one of the most diverse avifaunal regions on earth (Rahbek et al., 2007). This spatial pattern of hummingbird occurrence is significantly visible in consideration to the data availability within regions of terrestrial biomes of evergreen tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest. Finally, the spatial scale of this study was selected with the intention to enable generalization of large-scale deforestation impacts on hummingbird species richness across the tropical rainforest region, therefore each of the study locations consists of 31416 hectares of land. Earlier investigations of deforestation impacts on biodiversity have concluded that the spatial scale of the study determine how species richness responds to landscape changes in an area (Dumbrell et al., 2008; Ferraz et al., 2003). Commonly small-scale studies investigating areas less than 25 hectares conclude that the species richness decline in relation to high deforestation rates (Hill & Hamer, 2004). In regard to the scale of this earlier research, this would suggest that the selected spatial scale of the sample areas examined in this study may be, simply stated, far too large to detect any spatial patterns of species richness decline. Furthermore, the extent of a hummingbird’s habitat range is estimated to be approximately 1.6 hectares (Abrahamczyk & Kessler, 2010) in relation to this, study areas of 314116 hectares include many neighboring habitats and spatial distribution patterns would, therefore, be complex to detect. 5.3 Future work Primarily an interesting aspect in future research would be to conduct an examination and select study areas of varying size and see if this will lead to different results, as many studies have found study area size to be highly determining for the resulting species richness in a landscape (Dumbrell et al., 2008; Ferraz et al., 2003; Hill & Hamer, 2004). The extent of forest edges is suggested to be one of the main factors in terms of impact on diversity from deforestation along with the size and shape of the remaining forest patch (Marini, 2001; Stouffer et al., 2009). In relation to this, a suggestion for future work would be to implement edge detection methods. Edge detection compromises techniques to process images and highlight the contrast and brightness to clarify the features in the image, and further apply algorithms hence detect the discontinuities in the image – representing edges. By implementation of a forest edge detection method in this way, it would enable to quantify the exact scope of forest edges in a landscape. Additionally, this would allow calculating the sizes of remaining forest patches in a landscape subjected to forest fragmentation, to further analyze the impact of these parameters in regard to species richness. 20 This study could conclude that the surrounding matrix is important as it reduces or decreases the habitat connectivity. However, several earlier studies suggest that it exists a diversity and endemism gradient dependent on vegetation types (Philpott et al. 2008; Waltert et al., 2011) along with an identified difference between pastures and cropland, because pastures comprises larger fragments and hence does not have equally negative effect on diversity (Carvalho et al., 2009). In this context, to map the specific vegetation characteristics of landscape fragmentation patterns and matrices surrounding forest patches to detect if such difference is to be found would further refine the knowledge of habitat fragmentation impacts. Identification of vegetation types could be done by remote sensing analysis using vegetation indices, methods used to detect vegetation growth and density hence indicating the vegetation type. A multivariate analysis of the hummingbirds’ species richness using the degree of forest edges and vegetation types, together with other parameters that could affect the hummingbird species richness, would be a suitable and interesting approach for future work. Some of the result provided in this study could thus efficiently become more reliable as the data availability expands, and this could eliminate a potential source of error from the result caused by over-fitted data and inaccuracy of the biodiversity patterns of reality. This highlight the potential for future research conducted using biological data, as more scientists and institutions contribute to databases like the GBIF. 6. Conclusion The overall finding of this large-scale spatial analysis is that the species richness of hummingbirds does not differ between locations of closed-canopy rainforest and locations subjected to forest fragmentation, to any particular extent. No correlation could be found to exist between hummingbird diversity and deforestation degree, hence the study has managed to conclude that hummingbird species are not specifically sensitive to landscape change. The study has identified a threshold value in terms of fragmentation degree at 40%, suggesting that deforestation thus favors hummingbird species richness as first, as they benefit from forest edges. However, habitats exposed to >40% deforestation thus seem to have a negative impact on hummingbird species richness instead. The explanation of hummingbirds’ high resilience in terms of habitat disturbance and landscape fragmentation caused by deforestation is partly their expanding niche breadth as fluctuating foraging behavior has been identified. Hummingbirds tend to exploit the resources available in the environment, inducing a high adaptability to new habitats. The locations where the highest species richness was found also had high habitat connectivity, to a large extent surrounded by a matrix of the closed-canopy rainforest. Aforementioned factors are identified to be determining drivers in terms of hummingbird resilience of habitat disturbance. Deforestation cause atmospheric influence which in turn generate climatic fluctuations that could affect the precipitation, humidity, and seasonality in the rainforest. This impact can lead to changing spatial patterns of flowers and nectar and thus also affect the distribution of hummingbird species in the long run. However, this study may also indicate that an extinction debt may have been identified in the landscape. Hummingbirds’ relaxation time commonly comprise one decade simultaneously severe habitat disturbance has occurred in the last two decades, hence future extinctions may be expected to occur in the following decades as a consequence of the ongoing deforestation process in the Amazon region. Additionally, using spatially explicit biological data from GBIF in large-scale analysis of species richness has great potential in relation to the reliability in accordance with the high representation of species in the data. 21 7. References Abdala, G. C. (2015) The Brazilian Amazon: challenges facing an effective policy to curb deforestation 1.st EDITION Brasilia, Brazil WWF Living Amazon Initiative and WWF Brazil 2015 Abrahamczyk, S., & Kessler, M. (2010). Hummingbird diversity, food niche characters, and assemblage composition along a latitudinal precipitation gradient in the Bolivian lowlands. Journal of Ornithology, 151(3), 615-625. Antongiovanni, M., & Metzger, J. P. (2005). 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Appendix Appendix I - Records of raw data Study sites Deforestation of forest cover (%) 1993 Deforestation of forest cover (%) 2014 Δ Deforestation change (%) 1993 - 2014 Bird data quantity available Species richness (raw data) Standardized species richness (Eq. 3) Standardized species richness (Eq. 2) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 98,88% 18,95% -79,93% 299 33 1,16 5,78 98,33% 4,28% -94,05% 927 46 1,79 6,73 95,75% 81,70% -14,05% 973 35 0,13 5,08 87,15% 3,19% -83,96% 284 31 0,88 5,48 57,95% 0,72% -57,23% 21 11 0,64 3,61 59,53% 16,75% -42,78% 63 21 1,15 5,06 95,25% 3,39% -91,86% 119 22 0,34 4,60 94,07% 2,64% -91,43% 103 20 0,12 4,31 99,15% 6,48% -92,68% 3429 39 -0,39 4,79 30,86% 12,12% -18,75% 252 22 -0,58 3,97 0,00% 8,42% 8,42% 866 25 -1,22 3,69 0,00% 3,95% 3,95% 21 11 0,64 3,61 11,60% 5,18% -6,43% 67 20 0,80 4,75 1,49% 9,24% 7,75% 23 8 -0,52 2,55 14,62% 6,84% -7,78% 1615 41 0,49 5,55 33,76% 16,11% -17,64% 1654 29 -1,14 3,91 1,53% 6,35% 4,81% 72 15 -0,48 3,50 54,68% 3,05% -51,63% 2408 52 1,54 6,67 39,82% 73,23% 33,41% 547 35 0,74 5,55 0,00% 0,05% 0,05% 10 6 0,77 2,60 44,66% 27,58% -17,08% 278 32 1,08 5,68 42,94% 2,42% -40,53% 2073 55 2,09 7,20 0,00% 6,84% 6,84% 603 33 0,32 5,15 0,00% 4,26% 4,26% 455 23 -0,99 3,75 0,29% 6,16% 5,87% 188 20 -0,63 3,81 22,32% 9,05% -13,27% 203 24 0,03 4,51 34,86% 9,94% -24,92% 107 24 0,92 5,13 52,68% 13,82% -38,86% 62 14 -0,50 3,39 1,69% 8,82% 7,13% 2226 28 -1,48 3,63 0,00% 4,51% 4,51% 12 8 1,04 3,21 34,93% 1,85% -33,08% 38 3 -2,72 0,82 8,46% 5,51% -2,95% 8 3 0,11 1,44 5,68% 38,71% 33,03% 16 8 0,26 2,88 5,57% 0,89% -4,68% 17 8 0,11 2,82 0,56% 12,82% 12,25% 11 4 -0,34 1,66 0,84% 0,09% -0,75% 74 10 -1,68 2,32 0,28% 3,13% 2,85% 121 20 -0,09 4,17 1,56% 4,72% 3,16% 141 20 -0,29 4,04 27 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 5,59% 0,86% -4,73% 213 23 -0,21 4,29 No data 11,87% No data 344 21 -1,07 3,59 No data 25,04% No data 82 21 0,69 4,76 6,15% 24,95% 18,81% 51 22 1,82 5,59 0,00% 41,33% 41,33% 9 4 0,21 1,82 0,00% 21,73% 21,73% 314 24 -0,46 4,17 11,42% 25,37% 13,95% 198 19 -0,88 3,59 0,00% 57,81% 57,81% 117 18 -0,46 3,77 0,34% 34,01% 33,66% 198 18 -1,07 3,40 0,00% 14,29% 14,29% 263 21 -0,81 3,76 3,65% 22,90% 19,25% 58 11 -1,14 2,70 0,00% 9,98% 9,98% 27 8 -0,81 2,42 0,00% 13,16% 13,16% 108 20 0,06 4,27 0,00% 11,71% 11,71% 166 20 -0,49 3,91 0,00% 13,91% 13,91% 132 19 -0,41 3,89 0,00% 14,08% 14,08% 11 4 -0,34 1,66 0,56% 42,19% 41,63% 74 28 2,49 6,50 0,00% 14,43% 14,43% 125 25 0,89 5,17 0,00% 17,20% 17,20% 68 16 -0,16 3,79 0,00% 28,73% 28,73% 72 28 2,55 6,54 0,00% 18,65% 18,65% 34 7 -1,47 1,98 0,00% 27,13% 27,13% 13 8 0,81 3,11 0,00% 48,75% 48,75% 48 11 -0,88 2,84 0,00% 18,49% 18,49% 178 18 -0,95 3,47 0,00% 5,71% 5,71% 38 20 1,94 5,49 0,00% 19,76% 19,76% 28 8 -0,87 2,40 0,28% 44,17% 43,89% 25 11 0,25 3,41 0,00% 56,47% 56,47% 51 15 0,04 3,81 0,00% 27,70% 27,70% 12 7 0,64 2,81 0,00% 11,28% 11,28% 22 10 0,21 3,23 0,00% 13,57% 13,57% 129 13 -1,62 2,67 0,00% 9,95% 9,95% 69 14 -0,66 3,30 75,89% 73,47% -2,42% 107 6 -2,92 1,28 15,86% 52,99% 37,12% 23 6 -1,16 1,91 7,33% 36,86% 29,53% 14 7 0,22 2,65 0,00% 9,69% 9,69% 15 6 -0,31 2,21 1,21% 27,41% 26,20% 31 11 -0,17 3,20 0,00% 15,00% 15,00% 40 14 0,20 3,79 1,33% 28,21% 26,88% 107 17 -0,56 3,63 2,82% 20,54% 17,73% 41 20 1,77 5,38 88,58% 11,10% -77,48% 26 15 1,40 4,60 0,00% 60,83% 60,83% 21 12 0,97 3,94 • Light sections represent locations of present low deforestation degree and dark sections represent locations of present high deforestation degree. 28