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Transcript
Drought in Pakistan
LEAD Pakistan LDP, Karachi
3 June 2015
Brig. (R) Kamran Shariff
Outline:
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Setting the stage;
Drought prone regions and historical perspective;
Hazard risk rating;
Climate change and the meteorological perspective;
Drought situation 2014 onwards: water, food and agriculture,
health and livestock;
• Drought governance in Pakistan;
• Drought monitoring; and
• Mitigation strategies
Definitions:
• Drought is a slow onset disaster whose onset occurs as a
consequence of rainfall shortage but its impact varies in various
regions consistent with the local environment, weather, soil
conditions and host of other factors. Its impact, unlike other
natural disasters, extends over considerable space;
• Variants: Meteorological, hydrological, agricultural & socioeconomic
• Drought Mitigation: structural / physical measures (appropriate
crops, dams or engineering projects) or non-structural measures
(policies, awareness, knowledge development, public
commitment, and operating practices) undertaken to limit the
adverse impacts of drought;
Definitions:
• Drought Response: efforts such as provision of assistance or
intervention during or immediately after a drought disaster to
meet life preservation and basic subsistence needs of the
affected population. It can be of immediate, short term or
protracted duration;
Source: ISDR
• Sustainable Development: meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs. (World Bank)
Question:
Is drought a disaster situation warranting emergency
response;
or a developmental issue with a drought situation
reflecting developmental deficit ?
Components of a drought policy
Sustainable development;
• Water security;
• Food security;
• Livelihood diversity;
• Environmental security;
• Rangelands management;
• Livestock management;
Mitigation strategies;
Emergency response management;
Awareness raising and capacity building
Drought Actors:
• Federal Government: Planning Commission, WAPDA, Ministry
of Climate Change, NHPREN, Ministry of Food Research,
NDMA, PARC, PMD, SUPARCO;
• Provincial Government: Departments: P&D, Food, Health,
Livestock, Forest, Agriculture, Irrigation, PDMA, Provincial
Nutrition Cell;
• Districts: Relevant departments of the District Government led
by the DC;
• UN Agencies: WFP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, UNDP, relevant NGOss
Deserts / Rangelands:
Cholistan:
Drought prone regions of Pakistan:
The Thar Desert: spread over 320,000 square kms with 85% in
India.
Pakistan’s Thar desert is spread over approx 50,000 square
kms across Tharparkar, parts of Umarkot, Sanghar, Khairpur
and Ghotki;
Kirthar Range in Sindh: Spread over 25,000 sq kms, it extends
into Jamshoro, Dadu and part of Thatta district;
Rangelands of Balochistan: comprise 79% of the landmass.
Include Central Balochistan Quetta and Kalat; Western
Balochistan desert: Chagai, Kharan, Gwador, Lasbela and
Kharan. Eastern Balochistan Zhob and Loralai regions;
Cholistan Desert: 26,3000 square kms along Bahawalnagar,
Droughts in historical perspective:
• Major droughts recur in 12-16 years cycle and lesser versions
every 4-6 years in the vulnerable regions;
1999-2001 Drought:
• Affected the entire country but Balochistan was worst affected
followed by Sindh;
• 3 million pop affected and 2.5 million livestock lost;
• 58 districts seriously affected, or which 23 were from
Balochistan;
• Agricultural growth registered negative 2.5%. Losses estimated
Drought in historical perspective:
• IFIs assisted $ 360 million Drought Emergency Releif Assistance
programme focused on emergency response, communication
and water infrastructure mainly;
• Chronic water shortages negatively impacted on traditional
coping mechanism;
• Livestock distress sale and increased morbidity and mortality;
• High incidence of water borne disease and chronic and acute
mal nutrition;
• Socioeconomic poverty
Hazard and risk assessment factors:
Baseline Factors:
• Food and nutritional security;
• Access to improved drinking water;
• Fully immunised children 12-23 months;
• Total 12 marks
Drought Vulnerability Aspects:
• Drought occurrence;
• Exposure: % of population in drought vulnerable areas;
• Drought impact.
• Total 18 marks.
Grand total: 30 marks
Present Drought Situation; Climate change aspect:
• There is evidence to suggest that global warming has
negatively impacted upon the Pakistan's environment, like
causing loss of bio-diversity, shifts in the weather patterns and
reduced fresh water supply. Climate change trends are
synonymous with climate variability in terms of flash floods
and drought incidence;
• Prevalence of El Nino conditions;
2013 Summer
Monsoons
2014 Summer
Monsoons
October 2014
November
2014
December 2014
February 2015
Pakistan
Plus 10%
Minus 23%
Plus 59%
Minus 3%
Minus 99%
Minus 16%
Sindh
Minus 21%
Minus 78%
Minus 94%
Minus 48%
Minus 100%
Minus 74%
Balochistan
Plus 11%
Minus 33%
Minus 42%
Plus 10%
Minus 100%
Minus 42%
Punjab
Plus 9%
Minus 1%
Plus 63%
Plus 14%
Minus 100%
Minus 11%
KP
Plus 13%
Minus 32%
Plus 173%
Minus 19%
Minus 98%
Plus 15%
GB
Plus 12%
Plus 118%
Plus 12%
Plus 21%
Minus 100%
Minus 36%
AJ&K
Plus 6%
Normal
Plus 1%
Plus 1%
Minus 100%
No departure
Drought 2014 onwards:
• Water security in Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh), Cholistan and
Balochistan;
• Food security and agriculture;
• Health:
• Livestock situation;
• The Balochistan drought situation
• Priority of needs identified by the communities: water,
livestock,
health, food
Water security
160
140
137.22
132.83
131.31
128.67
122.31
121.80
Inflow Volume (MAF)
120
100
80
60
40
20
17.16
12.54
8.26
7.02
1.69
5.02
0
1961-62 To 1970-71
1971-72 To 1980-81
1981-82 To 1990-91
1991-92 To 2000-01
Period
Western Rivers
Eastern Rivers
2001-02 To 2010-11
2011-12 To 2013-14
Health: Nutrition status 2014, < 5 deaths 2012, 2014 ;
Districts
Umarkot
Sanghar
Kambar S Tharparkar
GAM
2014
25.3%
24.1%
Districts
Umarkot
Sanghar
2012
198
441
234
2014
259
592
314
22.3%
22.2%
Thatta
Shikarpur Jacobabad Kashmore Badin Dadu
19.2%
18.2%
13.%
Thatta
Khairpur
Sukkur
Ghotki
318
59
436
1257
88
186
554
587
203
356
1707
89
189
668
Mirpurks Tharparkr
13.3%
9.7%
4.2%
Badin Dadu
Health: < 5 deaths 2012, 2014; < 1 deaths 2012, 2014
Districts
Umarkot
Sanghar Mirpurks Tharparkr
2012
174
4083
373
2014
166
299
162
Districts
Umarkot
Sanghar
2012
2014
160
161
3771
50
Thatta
Khairpur
Sukkur
Ghotki
245
99
1401
608
484
357
2124
366
131
872
321
175
230
408
Thatta
Khairpur
Sukkur
Ghotki
66
56
1365
848
332
43
412
125
Mirpurks Tharprkr
351
127
135
144
Badin Dadu
Badin Dadu
216
178
1710
95
National Drought
Steering Committee
Districts
Regional
Provincial
National
NDMA Drought
Monitoring Cell
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Provincial Drought
Steering Committee
Regional Drought Task
Force (DTF)
First Responders
Vulnerable Districts and
Communities
•
Planning Commission (Lead)
Ministry of Water and Power
Ministry of Climate Change
Ministry of Food Security
Ministry of Finance
National Health Emergency
Preparedness and Response Network
WAPDA
NARC
NDMA
PMD
PCRWR
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Planning & Development Department
(Lead)
Irrigation Department
Food and Livestock Department
Health Department
Education Department
PDMA
Community Welfare Department
Social Welfare Department
Provincial Nutrition Cell
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Commissioner (Lead)
DCs
DHO Health
Livestock
Food Controller
Revenue Department
Social Welfare
Community Development Department
Forest
NGOs
Community members
Drought Monitoring: Issues
• Meteorological and hydrological networks are often
inadequate in terms of monitoring parameters;
• Forecasts often lack reliability on seasonal timescale and
specificity, thus restricting their use;
• Drought monitoring systems lack integration, including
those of climate change, water and soil parameters and
socio-economic to map the drought magnitude, spatial
extent and potential impact;
• Drought early warning dissemination methods are lacking in
reach to the end users, and thus do not support decision
making at multiple response levels;
Drought Monitoring:
• Global facilities & regional networks;
• In Pakistan, PMD Drought Early Warnng Centre uses
Standard Precipitation Index. Fortnightly and three monthly
updates;
• SUPARCO issues monthly crops situation updates. Uses
Keetch Byram Index;
• WFP disseminates monthly market prices bulletin and
quarterly food security update;
• Need for Integration;
• Proposed integrated drought monitoring and response
mechanisms for Tharparkar, Kohistan (Sindh) and Cholistan
Drought Mitigation Strategies:
• Addresses (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4)
livestock and range management; (5) cbdrm; and (6) climate
change adaptation;
• Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses
with mitigation;
Strategy development:
• Sustainable development;
• Sustainable consumption;
• Institution building + governance aspects;
• Reinforce structural capacity;
• Promote integration and coordination;
Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Water:
• Policy issues;
• Supply side management;
• Water demand management;
• Ecological solutions;
• Water governance;
• Desalination
• Emergency response management
Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Food and Agriculture:
• Policy inputs;
• Research and capacity building
• Promotion of less water demanding crops;
• Soil conservation;
• Watershed management;
• Water conservation;
• Emergency response management.
Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Health and Nutrition:
Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions;
Reproductive health;
Human resource;
Access and outreach;
Disease surveillance and responses;
Preventive and curative
Drought Mitigation Strategies:
Rangeland Management:
• Mapping of inventory building;
• Measures for checking desertification;
• Rangeland usage control;
• Reinforce goverance aspects;
• Promote communities inclusive management;
Livestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support,
emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and
capacity building
Tharparkar Drought Response 2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Emergency Response
Emergency Food
Water Tankering
Health outreach
Mitigation Actions
Water Security/RO Plants
Nutrition CMAM
Ecological Interventions (water)
Livestock sanctuaries
Infrastructure Projects
Water infrastructure
Health infrastructure
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec