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THE NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS IN THE POST-COLD WAR PERIOD -ITS MEANING FOR FORMATION OF A GLOBAL ORDER- Nishikawa Jun WASEDA UNIVERSITY INTRODUCTION After the collapse of the East-West Cold War system, the world order has rapidly been changing. The collapse of the Cold-War system itself shows how today’s world system is being radically changing. The North-South issues have undoubtedly constituted one of the major factors for the shin of the world system. Another should be related to the rise of the global factors. We will see in this paper the meaning of the North-South relations in the formation of a new global order which will shape the world system in the beginning of the 21st century. For this purpose, we will examine first the shift of the modern world system that we are observing in the 1990s. This shift is characterized by two different movements: first, the rise of the New International Economic Order, which was promoted by the countries of the South; second, the decay of the hegemonies world order dominated by two superpowers, this decay being brought by the contradictions between superpowers and middle and small nations. From this analysis, we can say that the North-South issues or the relations between developed centers and late-starting and catching-up nations constituted major factors for disintegration of the existing hegemonic hierarchical world order. Next, we will examine the globalization move as agent in the existing world system. The globalization move can be analyzed in two levels: economic level and political/cultural level. Economic globalization consists of internationalization of production system, liberalization and progress of market economic system. Political and cultural globalization can be seen in the promotion of human rights, national/region/individual identity, democracy and good governance. These two different levels of globalization have accelerated transformation of the actual world system. 1 Third, after having examined these factors which have been bringing change in the actual world order, we will analyze polarization moves in the emerging new global order. The polarization is related first to increasing gaps between world-wide rich nations and poor nations, as it is shown in the increasing North-South gaps on world-wide scale. Second it is related to increasing world poverty and deterioration of environment. The mass of population are suffering from deprivation, exclusion and discrimination. The so called South-South gaps are one of the characteristics of the emerging actual global order. In the last analysis, the polarization should be related to the progress of market mechanism on world-wide scale. Having analyzed these points; we might reach to the following conclusion. We would like first to point out that the hierarchical and hegemonistic world order which characterized our globe since several centuries has been shifting and that more and more people are concerned to a human- and people-centered system rather than the hierarchical nation-state system. This new order is strongly colored by people's movement aiming at human rights, identity, harmony with nature and peace. At the same time, however, within this world order, we identify the progress of various gaps, deprivation, discrimination and exclusion. This could open the way to national, ethnic and civil rivalry, conflicts and eventually catastrophic war(s). This war, though it is not declared has been already in progress in the form of increasing poverty, starvation and destruction of environment. Here lies the importance of the appeal to the humanity based on the "mind of Hiroshima", which recognizes its own responsibility for bringing catastrophic end. Learning from the experience of Hiroshima, we might direct ourselves to the more peaceful world order of the 21't century. 1- THE SHIFT OF THE MODERN WORLD SYSTEM AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY (I) The New International Economic Order (NIEO) and the change in the international division of labor system Today's North-South gaps originated from the system of international division of labor by the industrially advanced powers since several centuries. This system is a modem world system, which is based on capitalist production, division of labour and market 2 mechanism. Within this system, not only the gaps between the developed and countries, but also those between the have and not-haves developed. The modem world system has developed through different business cycles, which bring constantly instability of economy, unemployment and misery. It was called market failures. However industrially advanced countries have forged a welfare state, based on the international division of labor, thus integrating not-have worker class in the system, as the state-intervention system. It gave prosperity to advanced countries, though they suffered from world-wars, fought between advanced countries and late-starting industrializing nations. The modern world system reached to its apogee around the '1950s-60s, when advanced countries have accomplished major technical revolutions in the field of heavy and chemical industries and experienced high economic growth. In the 1970s, the situation has drastically begun to change. In the 1950-60 already, the under-developed nations had access to political independence and in the 1960s begun to claim industrialize themselves, calling themselves developing countries: the North-South issues emerged. The countries of the South, after the oil shock of 1973, convened a U.N. special conference on Raw Materials and Development and adopted a declaration urging to realize a New International Economic Order (NIEO). NIEO aimed at establishing sovereignty on natural resource in order to promote industrialization. Since then, two moves have developed among developing countries: first, they formed producers groups and tried to control their own natural resources, some of them, including the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), had success and others failures, however, it is true that the countries of the South established, in very short period of time, sovereignty over most of natural resources that they produce and that had been controlled before by multinational corporations originated from industrial North. Second, developing countries proceeded to aggressively industrialize themselves: in 1976, at the forum of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), they declared to increase their share of only 7% of world industrial production to 25% in 2000, later they modified this objective to 35%. Since then industrialization in the South, in particular in Asian and Latin American countries, has spectacularly developed and the share of the South in the world industrial 3 production attained in fact around 20% in 1990: triple increase in two decades. The NIEO and consequent shift of the international division of labor system has been bringing a fundamental change in the modern world system. (II) The collapse of the East-West cold war system- a decay of the hegemonic world order system The modem world system has always been characterized by hegemonistic leadership of powerful industrial nations and center-periphery structure. After WWII, the division of the world market by two superpowers emerged the U.S. and the U.S.S.R, each dominated its own sphere of influence. This East-West rivalry or the cold war system has collapsed around 1990. The reasons of the decay of this system are twofold. First, two superpowers accelerated armament race which undermined their economic base. The wrong security policy based on the military balance or the "equilibrium of terror" led continuous increase in military budget and their financial difficulty increased in both of them. Their financial difficulty was accelerated due to their engagement in the war with the Third world nations: the U.S.A. in Vietnam and the U.S.S.R. in Afghanistan. 'Their containment policy of the Third World clearly failed and both of them were obliged to leave the territory of the South. Second, the lead in industry of advanced nations are being caught up by late-starting industrialising countries, including Japan and Asian NIES. The U.S.A. lost its trade advantage already around 1970 and the gold-exchange system that this superpower instituted in the Western economy moved into fluctuation exchange system in 1974. In the case of the U.S.S.R, the information revolution, the progress of the human-rights consciouness and the revolt of nations imprisoned in the Russian Empire, all contributed to the fall of the Comecon/WTO hegemonistic system. That is why, in the 1970s-80s, the so-called bi-polar world moved into multi-polar world. Around 1990, the Soviet empire collapsed and them the U.S.S.R. itself. We have to point out that, behind the collapse of the hegemonistic world order, lies another fundamental change in the system. We saw that market system constituted one of the basis for the Modern world system, but because of market failures, this system needed the state control. 'The modern world system has always been developed in the framework 4 of the nation-state system. However, in the last half of the 20th century, it has become clear that this state system has its own failures and confronts serious difficulty: more and more economy needed state system and the state bureaucracy inflated, thus accelerating financial deficit, which limited the state’s choice. The state failure, have become clear in the light of globalization moves which emerged in the world system. Let us examine the effects of globalization on the transformation of the world system. 2 - THE GLOBALIZATION WAVE OF AGENT OF CHANGE IN THE WORLD SYSTEM ( I ) Economic globalization internationalization of production system, liberalization progress of opened market economy system The globalization wave constitutes undoubtedly one of the major actors for bringing change in the world system. We have to define here the exact meaning of the globalization. This term is used in contrast of the economic and social moves which are confined in the national or regional border. In other world, this term designates these moves which are not limited inside the westphalian nation state system and which surpass it. These globalization moves, economic, political and socio-cultural, might be endogenous or exogenous for the system. For example, the endogenous move could be related to internationalisation of firm and production system. Multinational firms represent endogenous globalization move for the nation state system. They urge liberalization of state control and regulations, thus representing liberalization movement. They also urge open door policy for the countries and regions where they intend to develop their activities or want to exploit new market, using very often the state and international power. In this case, the globalization is seen by the concerned parties as exogenous. In any way, there is no doubt that the increase of productive power and consequent multinationalization of firms constitute major actors for economic globalization. Borderless activities of high productive firms, which are based on market economy, demand liberalization policy in two field. First, they demand wider market and removal of 5 tariff and non-tariff barriers. Second, the state is requested to adopt non-interventionist policy. Multinational corporations become always agents for liberalization policy. The liberalization policy promotes market mechanism. The effects of progress of market mechanism are twofold On the one hand, market mechanism is favourable for efficient distribution of resource in the economic field and, in the political field, it promotes democracy or vertical type of social relations: in the market, we have only seller and buyer, which excludes all hierarchical relationships. That is why, the progress of market mechanism is most strong arm for democratic world. However, the market mechanism has also its own failures. These include business cycles, crises, unemployment, the gap between the rich and the poor, poverty, regional gaps, pollution, deterioration of environment, racial disintegration, etc. These so-called market failures necessitated the state-intervention, which becomes the basis for the welfare state. However, in the new world system which is emerging, the state system shows that it has its own failures such as inflated bureaucracy which is not sensitive to technological innovations, increasing fiscal deficit which is accelerated by the " society and armament race, and inertia of the people receiving unilaterally from the state welfare provision system. The basis of the state system is also being more and more undermined by the developing international system of production as well as free movement of various factors of production such as capital, technology, manpower, resource, etc. What should be other positive factors in shaping the new global world order. We have to examine here political and cultural factors for globalization. (2) Political and Cultural Globalization - Human Rights, Identity, Democratization and Good Governance Market failures were accused through the 1980s on the world-wide scale. In this decade, the wave of liberalization, de-nationalization and de-regulation has progressed everywhere. This is because of the state-failures which seriousness had been recognized in the 1970s. Many government and developing, adopted deliberately neo-liberalist policies. With the progress of market economy opening policy, and information and communication revolution promoted by enormous progress of computer and multimedia technology, people’s value system begun to move toward more democratic system of social 6 and international relations. Not only the economy, but people’s identity as well as the notion of human rights and dignity After the Second World War, with the national liberation movements and the access to independence of many Third world nations, the notions of human rights have spetacularly developed. This development concerns mainly to the following two points First, since the modern age and the rise of civil society, the human rights notion has been developed as individual liberty rights. In the 19th century, with the development of labor movement, the social rights have developed. After the WWII, the new collective rights, such as self-determination, right to development, right to environment, etc. were raised . The articles 1 and 2, common to the both covenant A and Covenant B of the International Covenants of Human Rights, defines each the right of self-determination and the equality right of men and woman, both collective rights. These are new development of human rights. Second, the right of individual is considerably widened and, in the Optional Protocol of the Covenant B: Liberty Rights, it is determined that, an individual might suit the state, when the latter violates the human rights. Here, since the rise of the modern nation-state system, for the first time, the individual stands at the equal footing with state. We might say that the human rights, which were considerably developed and deepened and most of which were incorporated in the International Covenants of Human Rights adopted by the United Nations in 1976. The strenghening of human rights is related to the increasing people’s concern on their own identity, which is manifested in the national, ethnological, social or individual levels. In the modern age and just after the WW II through the 1950-60s, this identity constituted one of the driving force of the nation-state and was manifested mainly in the form of nationalism. However, in recent years, in particular, after the fall of the East-West cold war system, people’s identity has much diversified : ethical, cultural or social groups claiming their identity, it leads often to conflicts. The development of human rights, on the other hand is promoting democratization on the world-scale. The democratization is related, as we pointed out already, to the progress of market economy, however, there is no doubt that people's increasing concern 7 on human right and dignity constitutes one of the driving force of democracy. This is highly visible in the Tien-an Mon Incident in China in June 1989. After the collapse of East-West rivalry, political and cultural globalization has been progressing. The cultural globalization derives from economic, informational and communicational globalization as well as the universalization of people's value system. In recent years, in the field of international development, the role of good governance has b«n emphasized. Good governance has two meanings. First, it is related to the Western countries emphasis on propagating their own value system to the world-wide. The rule of law, plural party system, representative democratic system are among the major pillars of their value-system. The western countries are keen to propagate these ideals to the developing countries, which value system very often considered incompatible to their own. In this sense, the good governance is used as diplomatic tool for developed countries to enforce their will to developing countries. Second, however, the good governance can be claimed on the part of the people who urge the government value system to respect human rights and democratic rule. The simple and pure dictatorship, whether it is for individual’s will for power or for development sake, is becoming more and more isolated in the world opinion. Democracy can bee referred to the following two meanings : first, it is related to the decentralization of power ; second, it designates the people’s participation to the decision making and execution profess. Democracy, in these two meanings, should serve as reference yard for realization of human rights. In this sense, people might always transform the good governance, diplomatic tool of the state, to that can be claimed by the people in order to assure their participation to the state affairs and to promote human right. This is already visible in the participation of NGOs in the development affairs. We saw, the globalization process is surely going on, both in economic and political / cultural planes Both, waves are developing centripetal as well as centrifugal movements of the system, thus transforming the traditional world system to the new emerging global order. Let us lastly examine the polarization which been progressing in this transformation process of the system. 3 - POLARIZATION IN THE EMERGING NEW GLOBAL ORDER 8 (1) Center-Periphery relationship revived: North-South and South-South gaps and increase of marginalized population/ world-wide poverty and exclusion. Through the economic globalization, i.e., the enormous development of international production and market economy, center-periphery relations have revived or developed, both in international and domestic fields. In international field, the North-South gaps have widened. In the 1960s and 70s, when the North-South gaps were first recognized after independence of the Third world nations, the per-capita income gap between the North and the South was in general 10 to 1, this led to the debt crisis of the latter, due to the unequal exchange between these two areas and the consequent accumulated trade deficit of the South. In the 1980s, however, with the progress of market economy world-wide, the NorthSouth gap further widened: in the early 1990s, the gap is estimated to reach 17 to 1. With this widened gap, the poverty increased. According to the estimates of the World Bank, the absolute poor population whose income level is lower than the estimated level that satisfies the basic needs increased from approximately 578 million in 1969 to 1116 in 1985, two times increase in 16 years. The United Nations uses the figure of "over 1100 million" to designate the poor population in the early 1990s. We have to know that, during the time when the North-South gap is being widened, there are developing countries and areas which growth rates were very high and which are catching up the developed countries. These are NIES, "four tigers of Asia", and the ASEAN counties which are following the formers, and then the Chinese coastal area and certain parts of India. NIES and several countries of ASEAN, in particular, Malaysia and Thailand, are called Newly Industrializing Countries/Area or Dynamic Asian Countries. People often says that Asia constitutes one of the most dynamic and growing region of the world toward 21st century and they even call the next century an "Asian Century". However, this growing region is not deprived of poverty and environmental destruction. In fact, like USA, EU and Japan are the economic "centers of the world", the NIES can be considered centers of the Asia-Pacific region, dominating the surrounding countries/regions. In the 1970 and 80’s, these countries/regions achieved high economic growth, inviting multinational firms and foreign technology and exporting their products to the world market, in particular the U.S. market. This growing process of these countries, 9 preceded by Japan, was, for developed center countries, nothing but the downward process of their economy, thus transforming the world system, as we pointed out already. In the 1990s, now the NISEI have emerged in the Asian scene as active investors to the neighbouring countries and regions. They thus became promoters of the regional economic zones (See Nishikawa Jun, "Regional Economic Zones in Asia and Their Implication on International Economic Order", Waseda Economic Papers , No.34, 1995). They have been achieving high economic growth, ranging from 7 to 8 % a year in the last two decades. Here, the North-South gap narrowed; however, between the NIES and other developing countries, the gap widened. Even in China and India, who adopted the open door policy in the 1990s, the regional gap widened. This we call the South-South gap. In China, even before the opening policy, the income gap between the urban and rural areas was estimated to be 4 to 1 on average; however, after the open door policy and introduction of market economy, the gap between the growing coastal area and under-developed interior reached often more than 10 to 1: the Chinese call this phenomenon the “East-West”" gap, as the capital and manpower, both valuable productive resources, of the backward Western interior part emigrates into the advanced Eastern Coastal area. Now, in the interior part, over 200 departments are designated as "backward area" which poor population in need of assistance are estimated over 70 millions, according to the keynote report presented at the International Symposium on Poverty in China", jointly held by the Chinese government and the World Bank in October 1993. Together with the regional gaps, the gap between the rich and the poor widened. This is not limited in the developing part of the world. In the developed countries, where the basis of the welfare-state that they had forged in the framework of the modern world system is being undermined due to the transformation of this system, the state failures and the aging of the society, unemployment ratio is rising. In the European countries, where the unemployment rate was around 2% in the period of economic growth, this rate incrased in general and, in the half of the 1990s, reached to the level of around 10%. In USA, unemployment rate is 5-6%; however, in this country which receives every year a huge number of immigrants, source of dynamism of this country, the poor population or underclass, who receive the government support, account for 7% of total population. In Japan, which unemployment has traditionally beer low, around 2%, the 10 unemployment rate race to 3% since 1995 and is forecast to increase further with the of globalization, .i.e., accelerated overseas investment, opening of its economy and consequent rationalization of firms management, and deregulation of economy. With the rise of unemployment, it pointed out that discrimination against and exclusion of socially weaker people are widely seen. These are women, handicapped, aged people and immigrant workers who are often exposed to discrimination and exclusion. The gap between the average salaries of men and women widened in the time of depression in several countries and the position of the latters in employment tend to be rather unstable. The same can be said to the aged people whose pension is constantly menaced by the inflation/bubble tendency of the advanced state. We said that the North/South gap has widened as well as the South-South gap. However, in the Northern world, the gap between the rich and the poor or the established and deprived has been progressing. If the tendency of increasing poverty and unemployment continues, it lead to the disintegration, both international and domestic. Already in the international level, we are observing the North-South issues and conflicts. Now, both in the South and the North, the regional and social gaps might easily accentuate conflicts between ethnic and social groups. We have to understand that the ethnic conflicts that we are observing everywhere in the world, after the fall of the East-West cold war system, in Bosnia, Liberia, Rwanda-Burundi, China, the former Soviet Union, etc, are not only derived from the acquisition of national or ethnic identity, but derive mainly from various gaps, which accelerate the acquisition of identity. We examined that, in the actual transformation process of the world system, the center-periphery relationship revived and that poverty and exclusion have been increasing on the world-wide scale, thus leading to conflicts and wars. What are the conditions for realizing more equitable and peaceful global order. We will see this question in the last place. (2) Toward a human- and people-centered World system: conditions of a more equitable and peaceful world order We saw that polarization is progressing in the emerging new global order. The new order is in fact characterized both by centripetal and centrifugal movements. The centripetal 11 movement concern the development of multinational firms which has hierarchical system on the world-wide and the cultural conformation based on the mass-production/massconsumption civilization. However, the progress of market economy brings also the centrifugal momentum: democratization, decentralization, and networking of various economic and social actors. Through these moves, we see dearly the development of human rights notion which has become one of the major agents in forming a new global order. Since the 19th century, the modern world system has been characterised by the cult of progress and, after the W.W.II, of development. For modern men, the progress and development meant always economic growth and material prosperity: this credo has been destroying both human relations and the relations between human beings and the nature on the world scale. ln recent years, however, the increasing poverty and destruction of environment have been widely noticed and various international forums, including the U.N., are trying to change the objective of development from GNP growth to human- and people-centered one. This is the meaning of the publication of the 'Human Development Report" by the United Nations Development Program since 1991. Human development refers to the pattern of development which emphases, not only economic growth, but more fundamentally people's basic needs and freer choice in his life. Social indicators, including Human Development Indicators, are being 'developed to substitute GNP indicators. There is a clear shift in the objective of development. This change has been already noticed by successive proposal of new notions of development by international organisations through the 1980s, such as sustainable development or broadbased growth. ln order to achieve human- and people-centered development, the actors of development should also be diversified. We saw that the modern world system was promoted by the hands of the nation-states and profit-seeking private enterprises based on the market system. These two major actors have pursued progress and development since the 19th century in the framework of the modern world system However, at the time of the transformation of the modern world system, a new actor for the coming global order emerges: the civil society. In March 1995, when the World Summit for Social Development was convened in Copenhagen, which discussed world-wide poverty, unemployment and social 12 disintegration, the civil society, which is represented by Non-Profit Organizations (NPOS), Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOS), cooperatives and independent journalism, was considered one of major actors for tackling these social issues. In development field, equally, the NGOs are more and more considered important partners, watchers and interlocutors of the state and the private firms. The development of civil society should constitute one of the major actors in correcting both the state and market failures. Of course, the civil society itself is always exposed to various failures, such as anarchy, endless discussion, chauvinistic rivalry, etc. However, the major drive of civil society is solidarity or volunteership, which is very different from the state motive of power or the firms motive of profit. The rise of civil society reflects the world-wide democratic tendency as well as diversification of the value system. The civil society always should live democratic tension and dynamism, which is very different from the mass society, which has been developed as objective of development and which is deprived of any endogenous active factors. In this sense, perhaps, the civil society, as well as the balanced relationship between the major actors of development, state, market and civil society, should constitute one of the motives for more equitable and peaceful global order, since it keen to strengthen human rights, rectifying various gaps and realizing its own ideal which is not necessarily with the state power or firms profit. We don't know yet the shape of new global order which will prevail in the 21st century. This new global system could be a order where various gaps and conflicts are more accused, which could progress toward an apocalyptic end of the world and humanity. In this case, more and more people shall suffer from poverty, misery, starvation, deprivation, calamities, and civil-strifes and conflicts. But perhaps, another type of the world system can be conceived. This system will inherit various actors of change which occurred in the modem world system in particular, the mega-wave of human rights, democratization and respect for environment. In order to promote this possible global order, diversification of our value system which is not necessarily limited to pursuit of material growth, as well as of development actors, which are not limited to the state and firms but include the civil actors, should be necessary. 13 CONCLUSION Today, we are living in the era where the modern world system is being transformed by various factors developed within the system. In particular, the traditional international division of labor has been modified by the rise of newly industrialising nations. The NIEO constitutes undoubtedly one of the driving forces of the change in the world system and has prepared the rise of Asian states as economic powers. As well, the East-West cold war system has collapsed, which annouces the end of the hegemonic world order. Under this change, lies the globalization waves which have been developing both in economic and political/cultural fields. In the economic field, globalization is related to huge increase of productive forces, internationalization of production system, development of multinational corporations as well as market economy, and the consequent liberalization and opening policy. The globalization move has been bringing tremendous changes both in international and domestic fields, including spread of mass-production and mass-consumption system and democratisation, but it has brought at the same time world-wide poverty and destruction of environment. In the political and cultural field, democratization and good governance are new values which are forging a new global order. However, these values have fundamentally been promoted by the strengthening of human right and individual/collective identity. The notion of human rights have considerably been widened and deepened in recent decades and constitutes undoubtedly one of the major agents for a new global order. However, in this transformation process, we see polarisation which is going on inside the system. This polarization is being notice at the international, regional, national or social levels. It is manifested in the increasing North-South gaps, South-South gaps, gaps between the urban and rural areas, gaps between the rich and the poor, etc. Inside the developed area, equally, the polarization is taking place with the collapse of the welfarestate which was formed on the old international division of labor system In particular, the polarization is affecting socially weaker people: women, handicapped, aged people, immigrant people, etc. On the world-wide scale, the phenomena of poverty and unemployment have become serious. That is why, the UN convened the World Summit for Social Development in 1995 and designated the year 1996 as the International Year for 14 Eradication of Poverty and the decade starting from 1997 as the International Decade for Eradication of Poverty. The UN and other international organizations thus begun to emphasize social development in order to tackle with the World-wide international and social disintegration issues which are being more and more felt crucial. Thus an emerging new global order is leading us toward increasing disintegration of the modern world system. This disintegration can lead us to world of conflicts, wars and ultimately of self-destruction. This apocalyptic world can already be seen in our experience in the Hiroshima at the end of WWII, where an atomic bomb caused a number of both military and civil victims and atrocities. However, there is a sign to construct more positive world order. Already there is a turning in the notion of development, from the development emphasizing mainly material wealth to that focuses on human and people-centered development. In order to assure this new orientation in development, the participation of civil society is indispensable. The development of civil society which emphasizes human rights, democracy, equity among all livings and respect for more sustainable world, should constitute one of the major forces in forging more peaceful and equitable global order. In Hiroshima, there is a "mind of Hiroshima" which says: "Please sleep peacefully, we don't repeat never our faults". This phrase indicates that we have to reflect on our own behavior incausing mass-destruction of atomic arms. In Okinawa, people say: "Nuchidou Takara" (Life is our utmost treasure). From the atrocities of the Second World War, people acquired a fundamental moral of life. This wisdom should contribute undoubtedly to our moral basis for forging a new global order of the 21st century. 15