Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Impact of Urbanization on Regional Economic Development Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics September 2013 1 Introduction This article analyzes the impact of urbanization on regional economic development by referring to the typical examples of regional economic development in Pearl River Delta, Wuhan city circle and Chang-Zhu-Tan urban cluster. With sample data on urbanization rate of the above three regions as well as indicators relating to economy, society and people’s livelihood, comparative analysis is performed using modeling (such as linear, composite, growth models, etc.) via SPSS application and analytic hierarchy method. Regional conglomeration, innovation capacity, radiation capacity and demonstration capacity have become stronger and stronger following the increase of urbanization rate. Likewise, the scale of industries becomes bigger and bigger, and advantages more and more obvious. 2 ■ Contents 1. Theoretical study on the impact of urbanization on regional economic development 2. Some basics of the typical regional economic development 3. Correlation analysis between urbanization and regional economy 4. Conclusions and suggestions 3 1. Theoretical study on the impact of urbanization on regional economic development (A) Aggregation Theory (B) Advantage Theory (C)Radiation Theory 4 Overseas urbanization studies Judging from the progress of urbanization of each country in the globe, urbanization development presents a S-shape growth curve. The S-shape growth curve has three basic stages. The initial stage is where the urbanization rate is below 30%, with lower level of economic development and slow progress of urbanization; the middle stage is where the urbanization rate is between 30% and 70%, with stronger economic foundation and faster speed of urbanization; the last stage is where urbanization rate is above 70%, with higher level of economic development and stable development of urbanization. Experiences from different countries and different types of urbanization patterns are worthy of our study. 5 (A) Aggregation Theory Urbanization will cause the prompt aggregation of industries. Urbanization facilitates regional economic development through promotion of industrial development and thereby encouraging industries to aggregate. Industrial agglomeration refers to the process of the same industry getting highly concentrated in a designated geographical location, with continuous clustering of capital and factor inputs therein. Industrial agglomeration also refers to the clustering of companies and various types of interrelated organizations in a designated field and relatively concentrated in a geographical location. 6 (B) Advantage Theory Regional advantage refers to the integrated resource advantage of a region; that is, the existing favourable conditions or advantageous position of a certain region during economic development. Its component factors mainly include: natural resources, geographical location, as well as various aspects of society, economy, technology, management, politics, culture, education, tourism, etc. The regional advantage is mainly determined by natural resources, labour, industrial agglomeration, geographical location, transportation, etc. Regional advantage is also a concept of development which varies with the changes in the relevant conditions. 7 (C) Radiation Theory Radiation capacity of urbanization refers to the spread of positive effect of urban development to the peripheral regions, thereby promoting the economic development of the peripheral regions. Radiation is divided into intangible spread and tangible spread. Intangible spread includes information technology, education and culture, etc.; tangible spread includes talent flow, capital and resource flow, etc. Regional radiation capacity mainly refers to the movements of capital, talent, technology, market information, etc. as well as the exchange of concepts and ideas, mode of thinking, living habits, etc. between regions of relatively higher level of economic development and urbanization and those of relatively lower level of economic development and urbanization. The range of radiation depends upon levels of urbanization and economic development of a region. The higher the levels of such, the stronger the technology, capital, talents and other related aspects, and hence the wider the range of radiation for promoting the economic development and process of modernization of the whole region. 8 2. Some basics of the typical regional economic development (1) The general situation of Pearl River Delta (2) The general situation of Wuhan city circle (3) The general situation of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban cluster 9 (1) The general situation of Pearl River Delta Pearl River Delta adjoins Hong Kong and Macau, with Pearl River passing through the whole region. Water and land transportation is very well-developed, with advantageous geographical location. Pearl River Delta covers such locations as Guangzhou, two sub-provincial cities in Shenzhen, five prefecturelevel cities of Zhuhai, Foshan, Jiangmen, Dongguan and Zhongshan as well as some county-level cities like Zhaoqing, Huizhou, etc. Pearl River Delta has a land area of 54 700 square kilometers, i.e. 0.57% of the total land area of our country. At end of 2011, the resident population is 56 465 000, or 4.19% of the total population, with urbanization rate at 83%; the regional GDP is 4.372086 trillion dollars, or 9.26% of the total GDP of the whole country; the regional GDP per capita is RMB 77, 637, 2.21 times of the national average level. 10 (2) The general situation of Wuhan city circle Wuhan city circle is located at the south-eastern part of Hubei province, with Wuhan city as the center. Wuhan and the eight cities of Huangshi, Ezhou, Huanggang, Xiaogan, Xianning, Xiantao, Tianmen and Qianjiang within a periphery of 100 kilometers have formed a regional economic entity, which is situated at the “crossshaped” junction of first-rate development of the two east-west and north-south axes —— Changjiang economic belt and Jing-Guang Railway; and Jing-Zhu High Speed Rail. Wuhan city circle is the core region of development within Hubei province where industries and factors of production are the most intensive and vigorous. The region has a total area of 58 100 square kilometers, or 31.2% of the province’s total area. In 2012, the population of the region was more than 30 000 000, which was more than half of the province’s population. The urbanization rate is 58.3%; regional GDP is 1.387137 trillion dollars; and regional GDP per capita is RMB 45, 378, exceeding the province’s average level by 17.6%. 11 (3) The general situation of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban cluster Chang-Zhu-Tan urban cluster is situated at the north-eastern part of Hunan province. The three cities are distributed in a triangular shape along Xiang Jiang. The cities are within a distance of less than 40 kilometers from each other. They belong to the typical “economic growth triangle”, and are the cradle of Hu-Xiang culture. Within the region, the rail lines of Jing-Guang, Zhe-Gan, Xiang-Qian, Xiang-Gui, etc. intersect; Jing-Zhu, Shang-Rui highways and the four national highways 106, 107, 319 and 320 run through the region. Water transportation internally links up places like Xiang, Zi, Yuan and Li, and reaches out to Chang Jiang. The administrative area under the jurisdiction of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan is 28 000 square kilometers, taking up 13.3% of the province’s total area. At end of 2012, the total population was 13 834 200, or 20.8% of the province’s total population. The urbanization rate is 63.4%. Regional GDP is 944.4 billion dollars, or 42.6% of the province’s GDP. Regional GDP per capita is RMB 68,506, 2.05 times of the province’s average level. 12 3. Correlation analysis between urbanization and regional economy (1) Urbanization speeds up regional economic development (2) Negative effects brought about by overly rapid pace of urbanization on regional economic development 13 (1)Urbanization speeds up regional economic development Strengthen regional agglomerating capacity Strengthen regional technological innovation Increase regional radiation capacity Set a regional example Urbanization Expand large scale industries in the region Increase geographical advantage of the region 14 Typical Analysis: Regional Radiation Capacity Regional radiation capacity mainly refers to the integrated influence and power of the core city within an urban cluster towards promoting the development of peripheral cities and regions. During the process of continuous urbanization and rapid development of individual urban clusters, it is a strategic choice to make full use of the radiation capacity of each city to sustain economic development. Thus, it is important to study the radiation capacity of each core city for the strategic implementation of urbanization. In this article, analytic hierarchy method is adopted to perform systematic analysis and research of six cities within the three regions. We have classified urban economic radiation effect into five indicators, i.e. integrated economic strength, industrial development, infrastructure, science education and level of opening up. Weightings are allocated to the various indicators (see table 9). Radiation scores and rankings of each city are then computed (see table 10). 15 Table 9: Economic radiation and indicators system of 6 cities First Level Indicator Integrated economics strength radiation (0.35) Second Level Indicator Economic aggregate radiation (0.7) Economic level per capita radiation (0.3) Industry development radiation (0.15) Industry structure radiation (0.5) Enterprise radiation (0.5) Basic infrastructure radiation (0.2) Transportation radiation (0.25) Urban construction radiation (0.25) Resources radiation (0.25) Communication facilities radiation (0.25) Science education and medical care radiation (0.2) Technology input radiation (0.3) Labour quality radiation (0.4) Medical care radiation (0.3) Opening up radiation (0.1) Utilization of foreign capital radiation Third Level Indicator Regional production output (0.3) Regional population (0.25) Fixed asset investment (0.15) Total amount of retail sales of consumer goods (0.1) Fiscal revenue (0.2) GDP per capita (0.35) Fixed asset investment per capita (0.2) Fiscal revenue per capita (0.25) Disposable income per capita in a city (0.1) Consumer spending per capita in a city (0.1) Share of secondary industry in GDP (0.3) Share of tertiary industry in GDP (0.2) Ratio of secondary to tertiary industries (0.5) Number of enterprises above the designated size (0.35) Gross output of industries above the designated size (0.65) Passenger capacity (0.6) Freight volume (0.4) Urban built-up area (0.5) Urban green area (0.2) Urban road area per capita (0.3) Total water supply (0.5) Society-wide electricity consumption (0.5) Fixed line telephone subscribers (0.2) Year-end number of mobile telephone subscribers (0.4) Subscribers for broadband internet access (0.4) Expenditure on science and technology (0.6) Percentage of expenditure on science and technology to total expenditure (0.4) Number of students in tertiary schools (0.6) Number of tertiary schools (0.4) Number of hospitals and health centers (0.4) Number of doctors (0.6) Actual amount of utilization of foreign capital in the year 16 Table 10: Scores and rankings of economic radiation of the six cities City Integrated economics strength Industry development Basic infrastructure Guangzhou Shenzhen Wuhan Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan 0.534 0.549 0.409 0.354 0.140 0.114 0.181 0.227 0.131 0.133 0.118 0.111 0.364 0.376 0.218 0.133 0.066 0.042 Science education and medical care 0.300 0.172 0.279 0.212 0.178 0.060 Opening up Total Rank 0.158 0.170 0.139 0.096 0.018 0.018 1.536 1.494 1.177 0.928 0.521 0.344 1 2 3 4 5 6 Note: Data sourced from “China City Statistical Yearbook 2012” According to the results shown in Table 10, Guangzhou obtained the highest comprehensive radiation score of 1.536; Shenzhen rank the second with a score of 1.494; Wuhan 1.177; Changsha 0.928; Zhuzhou 0.521; and Xiangtan the lowest 0.344. It can be seen that for cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen having higher urbanization rates, its radiation capacities are stronger. For cities such as Zhuzhou and Xiangtan having lower urbanization rates, its radiation capacities were weaker. This shows that the higher the urbanization rate of a city, the stronger is its radiation capacity; the lower the urbanization rate of a city, the weaker is its radiation capacity. To a certain extent, the radiation capacity of a city depends upon its urbanization rate. 17 (2)Negative effects brought about by overly rapid pace of urbanization on regional economic development Negative Effects Bottle-neck Effect Matthew Effect 18 Ty p i c a l A n a l y s i s : M a t t h e w E f f e c t Matthew effect refers to the situation where the strong becomes stronger and the weak becomes weaker. This is widely applied to various fields like social psychology, education, finance and science, etc. When considering simultaneously such factors as system, human resources, income, etc., there always appears another outcome, i.e. a Matthew effect of “development divergence” between the developments of affluent regions and less affluent ones. The people, capital and goods would flow from the regions lagging behind to affluent regions, as the systems of the former are often less developed than those in the affluent regions. And the vicious cycle goes on, rendering regional divergence larger and larger. 19 Table 11: Disposable and fiscal income/revenue per capita of each core city in 2005 and 2011 Indicator Guangzhou Shenzhen Wuhan Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan 2005 Disposable income per capita 18287 21494 10850 12434 11230 9685 2011 Disposable income per capita 34438 36505 23738 26451 22633 20614 2005 Fiscal revenue per capita 3913 4987 1618 1740 660 528 2011 Fiscal revenue per capita 12024 50003 8139 7992 2790 2228 As shown in Table 11, from 2005 to 2011, the “Matthew Effect” of each core city in the three regions further manifested itself. For disposable income per capita in a city, the difference between the highest of Shenzhen and the lowest of Xiangtan increased from RMB11,809 in 2005 to RMB 15,891 in 2011, showing that high income earners earned more and more. For general budgetary revenue per capita of regional finance, the ratio of the highest of Shenzhen to the lowest of Xiangtan rose from 9.4 times in 2005 to 22.4 times in 2011, showing a trend of increasing difference. Social inequality arising from income differential is a crucial factor affecting social stability in each region. Therefore, with the increasing urbanization and expanding income differential each year, the widening income differences among the regions have given rise to the “Matthew Effect”, bringing about certain negative impacts on the socioeconomic stability of the regions. 20 4. Conclusion and suggestions 1) Conclusions of Analysis 2) Direction of regional economic development during urbanization 21 (1) Conclusions of Analysis With sample data relating to the urbanization rates of the above three regions as well as indicators of economy, society and people’s livelihood, analyses of modelling (such as linear, composite, growth models, etc.) via SPSS application and analytic hierarchy method are performed on the data. Regional conglomeration, innovation capacity, radiation capacity and demonstration capacity have become stronger and stronger, along with the increase in urbanization rate. The size of the large scale industries becomes bigger and bigger, and advantages more and more obvious. At the same time, the rising urbanization rate also pushes up the housing price, creating the need for more capital during urbanization and rising the threshold for farmer to change to urban dweller during urbanization. Following the increased urbanization rate, the income differentials among the city dwellers have become larger and larger. The large income differences have brought about negative impacts on the socio-economic stability of the regions. Thus, each region needs to play a leading role during urbanization to facilitate sound and fast regional economic development. In the meantime, it is also necessary to properly adjust the policies regarding housing price and income distribution so as to constrain housing price and income differences within a reasonable range. 22 Direction of regional economic development during urbanization Direction of development Reform and innovate to optimize regional structure Act according to local circumstances so as to build livable cities 23 (2) Direction of regional economic development during urbanization In conclusion, the core of modern urbanization is the urbanization for “people”. Upgrading the living qualities of “people” is the key to actualize the urbanization for “people” with the objective of making contributions to the general public. Urbanization of regional economy must be intensive, energy-saving and eco-friendly, allowing modern urbanization to complement industrialization, modernization of agriculture, and information technology. This is to prevent building artificial city with overintervention. 24 25