Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
National Transfer Accounts: Brazil Cassio Turra & Bernardo Queiroz NTA Workshop Berkeley, January 15, 2005 What have we done? • Turra (2000) applied Lee’s model to Brazilian data; • generated labor income profiles (1979-2003); • collecting data on government expenditures from 1980 to 2000; • historical data on school enrollment and percentage of population retired from 1960 to 2000; DATA • Census 1960 - 2000 from IPUMS; • PNAD (Household Survey) 1979-2003: labor income profiles, labor force participation, some info on transfers, household composition; • POF and PPV (Consumer Expenditure Survey): 1973, 1986, 1996, 2002; • Administrative data (Social Security Administration, Ministry of Education, etc.) Social Expenditures Government Social Expenditures, Brazil, 1980 - 2003 (as % of GDP) 8.00 7.00 6.00 % GDP 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Year Health Education SS Private Workers SS Civil Servants 00 01 02 03 Social Expenditures in Brazil (%GNP) 9% 8% 7% Social Security 6% 5% 4% Health 3% Education 2% 1% 0% 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 Social Security Expenditures and Retirement in Brazil Brief History of the Pension System • 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures made system more generous than before: index pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate rural workers; • 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues. Demographic and actuarial side of pension system became central part of the debate; • 1998: new methodology to compute pension benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined Benefit Program (transition period is very long). Brief History of the Pension System • 1988: last major reform. Most of the measures made system more generous than before: index pension benefits to minimum wage, incorporate rural workers; • 1990’s: reforms aim to increase revenues. Demographic and actuarial side of pension system became central part of the debate; • 1998: new methodology to compute pension benefits based on the Swedish Notional Defined Benefit Program (transition period is very long). Public Expenditures on Social Security - Civil Servants by government level (% of total) 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 % 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 Year Federal States Local 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 Percentage of Individuals Receiving Retirement and Survivor Pension Benefits by age and both sexes, Brazil, 1960 - 1991 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 1970 0.500 1980 1991 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 age 78 75 72 69 66 63 60 57 54 51 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0.000 0 % 1960 Retirees, Workers Enrolled, Labor Force and Retirees/Enrolled Ratio 80000000 35 70000000 30 25 20 40000000 15 30000000 10 20000000 Year Pensioners Payers Urban Labor Force Ratio 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 1959 1956 1953 1950 1947 1944 1941 1938 1935 0 1932 0 1929 5 1926 10000000 Ratio 50000000 1923 Population 60000000 Average Retirement Ages, Males, 1950-2000 65 62 Age 60.17 58.90 59.04 58.83 59 58.83 57.83 56 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 Mean Pension Benefits and Income 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Mean Pension Per Capita Income Bottom 10% Top 10% 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 0 Expenditures on Education Public Expendiures on Education by government level, Brazil, 1980-2000 (% of total) 0.60 0.50 % of total 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 Year Federal States Local 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 School Enrollment by age and both sexes, Brazil, 1960-2000 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 1960 1980 1991 2000 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 age 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0.000 0 % 1970 0.500 Health Expenditures Public Expenditures on Health, by government level (% of GDP) 3.50 3.00 2.50 % 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 year Federal State Local Total 89 90 91 92 Next Steps (short term) • Estimate private consumption in 1973, 1986, and 2003; • estimate public transfer profiles to education and social security based on information collected; • continue to collect data on government expenditures. Some Questions • How to create age profile for expenditures on health?; • What should we include on education expenditures? • How do we define the household head when not defined by the survey?