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Keynesian Circular-Flow Analysis (Labor-Based Macroeconomics) The Inherent Instability of a Wholly Private Economy (according to John Maynard Keynes) Roger W. Garrison 2006 The Keynesian Vision Keynes’s vision of the economy suggests a circular-flow framework—in which earning and spending are brought into balance by changes in the level of employment. The Income-Expenditure Framework Graphically, the circular flow appears as the Keynesian cross, the cross’s intersection identifying the particular state of the economy in which income and expenditures are in balance. BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS LABOR AND OTHER FACTOR SERVICES THE CIRCULAR-FLOW FRAMEWORK WORKERS INCOME FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS EXPENDITURES LABOR AND OTHER FACTOR SERVICES Let the speed of rotation indicate the strength (fast) or weakness (slow) of the economy. GOODS AND SERVICES WORKERS INCOME FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS EXPENDITURES BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS In Keynesian equilibrium, INCOME equals EXPENDITURES. Y=E For a wholly private economy, Y=C+I WORKERS INCOME FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS EXPENDITURES EXPENDITURES, which constitute the left half of the circular flow, is represented on the vertical axis. INCOME, which constitutes the right half of the circular flow, is represented on the horizontal axis. E=Y 45o INCOME The circular character of the flow suggests an equality of left-half flow and right-half flow---as represented by a forty-five degree line passing through the origin. EXPENDITURES C+I 1 a 45o Investment The As taught economy atdepends allislevels, in a INVESTMENT Keynesian the neither consumption on (current) equilibrium C = a + bY income somewhere function nor is an on along the the rate o line—the 45interest. essential of component It depends line itself b identifying of only theonKeynesian profit all possible income-expenditure framework. expectations, The which CONSUMPTION equilibriumstability presumed themselves points. are notof this function underlies well-anchored in Keynesianreality. economic thinking. INCOME Keynes would say the investors are moved Consumption and Investment (as well as Government Spending) by the “animal spirits.” are portrayed as additive components of total spending. The three components are distinguished largely in terms of their stability characteristics: stable (C ), unstable (I), and stabilizing (G). INCOME A wholly private macroeconomy achieves an income-expenditure equilibrium when Y = C + I. Note that income itself (rather than prices, wages, or the interest rate) is the equilibrating variable. EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY C = 120 + 0.60Y b = 0.60 I = 240 1 In equilibrium, Y = E a = 120 a So, Y = C + I Yeq = 900 INCOME Y = a + bY + I Suppose that a = 120 and b = 0.60. Y = 120 + 0.60Y + 240 And suppose we know that investors are spending 240 on investment goods. Y – 0.60Y = 120 + 240 Can we calculate the equilibrium level of income that corresponds to these parameters? 0.40Y = 360 Y = 900 EXPENDITURES C = a + bY CONSUMPTION C+I According to Keynes, it is only by “accident or design” that the economy is actually preforming at its fullemployment potential. Yfe INCOME INVESTMENT We assume here that, Labor incomeThough (Y = WN) not emphasized by Keynes, In Keynesian full employment macroeconomics, implies initially, full employment is fully representative that the economy of is operating onfull itsemployment production possibility implies that conditions prevail—if only total income, frontier, such that the PPF itself being defined the labor in terms market of sustainable clears at the by accident. changes in labor output levels of consumption and going investment wage rate, goods. the going W income stand in direct wage itself having emerged S proportion to changes during a period in which the LABOR D INCOME in total income. economy was experiencing no N macroeconomic problems. EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY Yfe INCOME OUTPUT REAL INCOME C+I LABOR INPUT REAL WAGE RATE S D LABOR INPUT EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY Yfe INCOME EXPENDITURES C ΔI+ I EXCESS INVENTORIES C = a + bY INVESTMENT 1 ΔY = (1 – b) ΔI ΔY 900 Yfe E= <Y The simple investmentspending multiplier, 1/(1-b), quantifies the extend of the downward spiraling. CONSUMPTION INCOME INCOME According to Keynes, a collapse of investment activity (the collapse being attributed to a waning of “animal spirits”) is the primary cause economic downturns. In response to reduced W and hence reduced employment opportunities, the investment Note the going wage keeps S economy spirals downward intothat recession and possibly into going—even after the market deep depression. D conditions that gave rise to it are N gone. EXPENDITURES ΔI = 100 C ΔI+=I 100 C = a + bY 1 ΔY = (1 – b) ΔI ΔY ΔY 1 ΔY = (1 – 0.6) (100) = 250 1 ΔY = (1 – 0.6) (100) = 250 400 650 900 INCOME A further loss of confidence In theon Keynesian the part of construction, the business prices and the community will send the wage economy rate are even sticky further downward. from its fullemployment potential. But note that they’re not stuck too high. W They’re stuck just right. The going wage rate S will clear the labor market once again—as D soon as spending and hence labor demand recover to their full-employment levels. N EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY 900 Yfe INCOME Recovery may be self-initiating. Waning animal spirits may become waxing animal spirits. In due time, a pressing need to maintain or replace depreciating capital may account for the lower turning W point of a bust-and-recovery sequence. S (Keynes, of course, preferred not to wait it out. He advocated D make-work projects, deficit spending, and monetary stimulation N to get the economy turned around.) EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY INCOME Yfe Recovery may continue as further investment activity drives labor-demand back to its full-employment level... W S D N EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY INCOME From full-employment onward, there is upward Recovery may in continue as further investment activity drives The equilibrium points pressure on both prices level... but thereAnd is since the laborlabor-demand market tracedback out to its full-employmentand wage rates. nothing about the and recovery during the recovery and“animal spirits” that will bring prices wage rates are process an end at full W employment. inflationary spiraltoconstitute not sticky upwards, the S the so-called L-shaped economy experiences a Over-optimism may push the economy beyond its inflation. fullsupply curve. spiraling D employment level. Yfe N EXPENDITURES C+I C = a + bY Yfe Y=C+I C=C Y–C=I S=I INCOME Even in Keynesian equilibrium, saving equals investment. But it’s not the interest rate that does the equilibrating. Rather, it’s income that adjusts (spirals up or spirals down) until the savinginvestment equality is established. EXPENDITURES BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS Dealing with the inherent instability of the economy, according to Keynes, requires policy activism. Well-gauged and well-timed fiscal policy (changes in government spending and the level of taxation) can counter the recessionary and inflationary forces that are deeply rooted in capitalism. WORKERS INCOME FACTOR OWNERS CONSUMERS Keynesian Circular-Flow Analysis (Labor-Based Macroeconomics) The Inherent Instability of a Wholly Private Economy (according to John Maynard Keynes) Roger W. Garrison 2006