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STRATEGY INSIGHT December 2015 Economic Overview Economic Indicators
2015 1Q (a)
2015 2Q (a)
2015 3Q (a)
2015 4Q (e)
2016 1Q (e)
Real GDP
0.6%
3.9%
2.1%
2.7%
2.7%
CPI (year over year)
‐0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
2.2%
5.6%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
Unemployment Rate
a= actual e=es mate
Decrease from last es mate reported Increase from last es mate reported
The Fed nears liftoff as employment
strengthens
OPEC meeting ends with oil production
remaining high
Investors are all but certain the Fed will begin its  OPEC members agreed to maintain their oil
production at record levels rather than cut production.
long anticipated lifting of the Fed funds rate at its
next meeting this month.
 After a year of higher production by OPEC, the hoped
for demise of high cost production has not occurred.
 The strong growth in November employment,
Oil production has continued to exceed demand and
coupled with upward revisions to October,
appears set to continue well into 2016.
provides Janet Yellen with additional data on the
strength of the U.S. economy.

U.S. Unemployment Rate
12
Percent of labor force
10
8
average = 6.1%
6
4
5%
2
recessions shaded
0
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2015
Investment products and Assets held in a fiduciary account are not deposits or other obligations, are not guaranteed by People's United Bank, N.A. are not insured by
the FDIC, by any other government agency, or by People's United Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates, and may lose value.
STRATEGY INSIGHT December 2015 Equity Economic Growth Drives Equity Returns Stock Market Cap/Style Indices 2015 YTD Total
Source: Bloomberg, PUB, as of 12.03.15

Earnings season has effectively come to an end. Of the
companies reporting, 74% reported better than expected
earning but only 45% reported better than expected sales.
Third-quarter earnings were down 1.3%, compared with
expectations of a decline of over 5% at the start of earnings
season. Excluding energy companies, earnings were up for
the quarter. Outside of the price of oil, the strength of the
dollar was the principal villain responsible for the weakness
in earnings and sales.

After being down about 10%-12% during the correction in
August and 8%-9% for the year, the S&P 500 is now up
over almost 1.5% as of the close last Thursday. It is also encouraging that there have recently been better gains in
both mid cap and small cap stock. This rally has been driven by better than expected third-quarter earnings; good
news regarding the consumer, auto sales, and housing; and the recent strong employment report.

The positive mood of October shifted to a more cynical tone in November. We believe the week by week give and
take in equity markets experienced in November will be the norm for December. Since there is still uncertainty
regarding the impact of slower global growth on our economy, it is reasonable to expect the equity markets will
experience wider and more frequent swings in returns than we’ve seen over the past few years.
Equity Market Year to Date (YTD) Total Returns
All returns are in US dollars
Source: Bloomberg, PUB, as of 12.03.15
Bond Market Indices YTD 2015
Source: Bloomberg, PUB, as of 12.03.15
Fixed Income Fed Hike on Horizon Fueling Shift in Bond Risks

The volatility in November performance reflected the bond markets working to digest the now almost certain initial
Fed rate hike in December.

At a recent speech Yellen reiterated her case for a December rate hike, saying that she believes conditions have been
met via continuing improvement in the labor market and anchored longer-term inflation expectations. She did
emphasize the likelihood that the path of hikes would remain slow after liftoff as the Fed is watching the labor
markets and inflation very closely.

Interest rate risk in longer maturities seems to have taken a backseat to volatility and credit risk given the sheer
length of the current market cycle and the fact that the market is at a transition stage.
Investment products and Assets held in a fiduciary account are not deposits or other obligations, are not guaranteed by People's United Bank, N.A. are not insured by
the FDIC, by any other government agency, or by People's United Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates, and may lose value.