Download Vanuatu National Statement on the 2015/16 El Niño A strong El

REPUBLIC OF VANUATU/RÉPUBLIQUE DE VANUATU
VANUATU METEOROLOGY AND GEO‐HAZARDS DEPARTMENT
DÉPARTEMENT DE LA MÉTÉOROLOGIE ET DES GÉORISQUES DE VANUATU Phone: (678) 24686, 22932 VOIP: 5305 Fax: (678) 22310
Email: [email protected] Website: www.meteo.gov.vu
Address: PMB 9054, Lini Highway, Port Vila, Vanuatu (Address correspondence to Director) (Toute correspondance doit être envoyée au Directeur) Our Ref: PV/MET- / ENSO:060/pm
VanuatuNationalStatementonthe2015/16ElNiño
ISSUED:FRIDAY08APRIL,2016
Objective:Toprovideasingle,accessibleandsector‐specificsourceofinformationabout
the current El Niño, including the tropical cyclone outlook, for government and non‐
governmentorganisationstouseinresponseplanningandpreparedness.
AstrongElNiñoisstillinplace,andimpactshavebeenfelt
acrossallofVanuatu
1. Introductorystatement
ThestrongElNiñothatbeganinearly2015isstillinplace.ElNiñooccurswhentrade
windsinthePacificweaken(orchangedirection)andthewarmwaterthatnormallysits
inthewesternPacificmoves to theeasternPacific. These conditions causechangesin
weatherpatternsaroundtheworld,especiallyinthePacific.ElNiñohasdifferentimpacts
acrossthePacificonrainfall,airandoceantemperature,sealevelandtropicalcyclone
risk.InVanuatu,ElNiñousuallycausesdrierthannormalconditionsinboththewetand
dryseasons.
2. ElNiñoStatusandOutlook
ScientistsmeasureElNiñobylookingatseasurfacetemperatures,thepositionofcloudy
areas, and the strength of the trade winds. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface
temperatureswarmedrapidlyinDecember2015andJanuary2016andpeakedatlevels
notseensincethelastverystrongElNiñoeventin1997‐98.Cloudyareasthatnormally
Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly)
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Climate :
Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected]
Geo‐Hazards :
Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected]
ICT and Engineering :
Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
occurinthewesternPacificoverVanuatumovedeast,awayfromVanuatu.Tradewinds
havebeenmuchweakerthannormal.
ComputermodelsandobservationaldatashowthattheElNiñohasstartedtoweaken,
andislikelytoendbythemiddleof2016.However,itisexpectedthattheimpactsofthe
current El Niño, including less than normal rainfall in Vanuatu, will continue until the
middleof2016.ThemodelsindicatethatthereisachancethataLaNiña(whichisthe
oppositeofElNiño)maydevelopbytheendof2016.LaNiñabringsalotofrainfallto
Vanuatuandthiscanhaveahugeimpactonthesocio‐economiclivelihoodofpeople.
3. CurrentandPotentialImpactsofElNiño
DrierthannormalconditionshavebeenobservedthroughoutmuchofVanuatu.Itisvery
importanttobeawarethatalthoughtheElNiñoisstartingtoweaken,thisdoesnotmean
that rainfall will necessarily return to normal straight away. The entire wet season
(NovembertoApril)isexpectedtobedrierthannormal.AlsofromMaytoJulyduringthe
2016dryseason,itislikelytobedrierthannormal.Theimpactsofdroughtaretherefore
likelytobefeltformostof2016.Rainfallwillreturntonormalinthenorthernprovinces
of Vanuatu first. Therefore, Tafea province will be the last province to recover from
droughtmeaningthatitwillhavemorelastingimpactsthanotherprovinces.
3.1. Rainfallanddrought
Computer models show that Vanuatu is likely to continue to get lower rainfall
thannormalforthenextfewmonthsuntilmid‐2016.Thereisahighconfidence
levelinthisforecast.‘Highconfidencelevel’meansthatthereisahighchancethat
this forecast will turn out to actually happen. This means that Vanuatu will
continuetoexperiencelessrainfallandareasarelikelytoremaindryuntilatleast
mid‐2016.Accesstowaterwillcontinuetobeanissueandgardenswillbeless
productive.
3.2. Seaandairtemperature
Sea temperatures around Vanuatu are about 29 degrees Celsius. This is much
warmer than normal for March. Models show that sea temperatures around
VanuatuwillstaywarmerthannormalinMarchandApril,thenreturntonormal
in May 2016. Warmer than normal sea causes warmer than normal air
temperatures.Also,ElNiñocausesVanuatutobelesscloudythanusual,meaning
daytimetemperaturesarelikelytobehigher.
VanuatuislikelytogethigherthannormalairtemperaturesfortherestofMarch
and April 2016. This means people will continue to feel effects of high
temperatures,althoughtemperatureswillnotbeashotastheywereinJanuary
andFebruary.Peopleneedtodrinkmorewater,stayintheshade,andtrynotto
workduringthehottimeoftheday.Thereisalsoahigherchanceofcyclones
developing until April 2016 for Vanuatu, because of the warmer sea
temperatures.
Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly)
Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected]
Climate :
Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected]
Geo‐Hazards :
Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected]
ICT and Engineering :
Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
3.3. SeaLevel
ElNiñocausessealevelstoriseinsomepartsofthePacificandtofallinother
partsofthePacific.InthecentralPacific(aroundKiribatiandTuvalu)sealevelis
higherthannormal–by30cminsomeplaces.InthenorthwestPacific,sealevel
islowerthannormal–morethan30cmlowerthannormalinsomeplaces.
Vanuatu’s sea level is also declining because of El Niño, but will experience a
smallerdeclinein sealevelofabout‐5cm tomid‐2016.However,evenasmall
decline in sea level will expose coral reefs to sunlight and will put stress on
marineresources.Ontheotherhand,peoplemaybemoreabletoaccessspring
wateralongthecoastduringcalmseas.
Thesechangesinsealevelsarenotpermanent.OnceElNiñoisfinished,sealevels
willeventuallyreturntonormallevels.
3.4. Coralbleaching
Warmer sea temperatures and changes in sea levels can cause coral bleaching
during El Niño events. Coral bleaching is when coral turns white. Bleaching
damagescoraland cancauseittodie.Poorreefmanagementcanincreasethe
chanceofdamagingcoralbleachingoccurring.
Computermodelsshowtwoscenariosforcoralbleachinginthewatersaround
Vanuatu. The first scenario is that there is a very high chance that Torba and
Tafeaprovincewillreach‘watch’levelforcoralbleachinginMarch2016.‘Watch’
level means that sea temperatures have warmed to levels that could cause
bleaching if they increase further and if reefs are unhealthy. ‘Watch’ level
indicatesthatpeopleneedtocarefortheircoralreefstohelppreventbleaching
fromoccurring.
The second (and worst case) scenario is there is a high chance that Sanma,
Penama,MalampaandShefawillreach‘Alertlevel2’levelinApril2016.These
levels mean that some island reefs in these provinces will likely experience
bleaching.Allprovinceswillreturntothe‘watch’levelinMay2016
At this time where people depend much more on marine resources to survive
afterTCPamandduringthecurrentdrought,peopleneedtonotputmorestress
onthereefstohelpminimisepossiblebleachingdamage.
Thefollowingsections(3.5to3.8)highlightsomeofthesector‐specificimpactsofEl
Niño that were identified by participants at the Vanuatu National Climate Outlook
Forum,14‐15March2016.
Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly)
Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected]
Climate :
Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected]
Geo‐Hazards :
Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected]
ICT and Engineering :
Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
3.5 Health
 Morefoodandwater‐borne diseasesthan usual,e.g.Cholera, E.coli,Giardia,
Shigella,Typhoid,HepatitisA,HepatitisE.
 Morevector‐bornediseasesduetoincreasedvectordistributionandmicrobial
transmission,e.g.Malaria,Dengue,Chickungunya,Zikavirus.
 Morerodent‐bornediseases,e.g.Leptospirosis.
 More biotoxins, e.g. fish and shellfish poisoning such as Ciguatera Fish
poisoning.
3.6 Waterresources
 Lowerthanaveragerainfallisaffectingcollectionofwateronislands/areas
thatarerainfalldependent.
 Adecreaseingroundwaterlevelsisaffectinggroundwaterabstractionwater
supplysystems.
 Therehasbeenadecreaseinwaterqualityforrainwatercatchments,surface
watersupplysystems/sourcesandgroundwatersupplysystems/sources.
3.7Agriculture,fisheriesandlivestock
 Additional water has been provided to crops by irrigation (through bucket
irrigation,dripirrigation,andsprinklerirrigation).
 Permacultureanduseofgreywaterhasbeenmorethanusual.
 More use of resilient farming system techniques e.g. agro‐forestry, alley
cropping,andmulching.
 Somerelocationofgardenstoareasclosertowatersourcestosaveplanting
material.
 More planting of drought resistant varieties taking into consideration
temperaturethresholdsforeachcrop.
3.8Tourism
 Therehavebeensomewatershortagesandcontamination.
 Foodshortage/vegetablesscarcityisaffectingtouristoperators.
 Water sources are being contaminated by dust (e.g. from driving on dusty
roads).
 Morefluandcoughoutbreaks.
4. TropicalCycloneOutlookforMarch–April2016
MoretropicalcyclonesthannormalareexpectedtohappeninthesouthwestPacific
during the current 2015‐2016 season. In the past, there have usually been higher
numbersoftropicalcyclonesoccurringduringElNiñoevents.
InVanuatu,2to6namedtropicalcyclonesareexpectedtohappeninthe2015‐2016
season(NovembertoApril).Thisisahighernumberthannormal.
Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly)
Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected]
Climate :
Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected]
Geo‐Hazards :
Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected]
ICT and Engineering :
Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
‘Named’tropicalcyclonemeansonethatisCategory1to5,sothisdoesnotinclude
tropicalstorms.ItislikelythatatleastoneofthetropicalcycloneswillbeCategory3
orstronger.Sofarthisseason,therehavebeen4tropicalcyclonesthathavecome
nearVanuatu.Hence,thereisstillariskforApril2016ofmoretropicalcyclones.
DuringElNiñoevents,tropicalcyclonetrackscanbelesspredictablethannormal.
Tropicalcyclonesmayalsolastlonger,meaningmoredamagemayhappenifacyclone
survivesinanareaforalongtime.
Sourcesofinformation
1. ‘Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands’
developedatthefirstPacificIslandsClimateOutlookForum,12‐16October2015.
2.NationalClimateOutlookForum(NCOF),MelanesianHotel,PortVila,Vanuatu,14‐15
March2016.
RepresentativesattheNCOFwerefromthefollowingagencies:VanuatuMeteorologyand
Geo‐Hazards Department (VMGD), National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), Red
Cross,ProvincialGovernment,VanuatuRainfallNetwork(VRN)andotherNGOsandUN
agencies.
Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly)
Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected]
Climate :
Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected]
Geo‐Hazards :
Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected]
ICT and Engineering :
Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]
Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]