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REPUBLIC OF VANUATU/RÉPUBLIQUE DE VANUATU VANUATU METEOROLOGY AND GEO‐HAZARDS DEPARTMENT DÉPARTEMENT DE LA MÉTÉOROLOGIE ET DES GÉORISQUES DE VANUATU Phone: (678) 24686, 22932 VOIP: 5305 Fax: (678) 22310 Email: [email protected] Website: www.meteo.gov.vu Address: PMB 9054, Lini Highway, Port Vila, Vanuatu (Address correspondence to Director) (Toute correspondance doit être envoyée au Directeur) Our Ref: PV/MET- / ENSO:060/pm VanuatuNationalStatementonthe2015/16ElNiño ISSUED:FRIDAY08APRIL,2016 Objective:Toprovideasingle,accessibleandsector‐specificsourceofinformationabout the current El Niño, including the tropical cyclone outlook, for government and non‐ governmentorganisationstouseinresponseplanningandpreparedness. AstrongElNiñoisstillinplace,andimpactshavebeenfelt acrossallofVanuatu 1. Introductorystatement ThestrongElNiñothatbeganinearly2015isstillinplace.ElNiñooccurswhentrade windsinthePacificweaken(orchangedirection)andthewarmwaterthatnormallysits inthewesternPacificmoves to theeasternPacific. These conditions causechangesin weatherpatternsaroundtheworld,especiallyinthePacific.ElNiñohasdifferentimpacts acrossthePacificonrainfall,airandoceantemperature,sealevelandtropicalcyclone risk.InVanuatu,ElNiñousuallycausesdrierthannormalconditionsinboththewetand dryseasons. 2. ElNiñoStatusandOutlook ScientistsmeasureElNiñobylookingatseasurfacetemperatures,thepositionofcloudy areas, and the strength of the trade winds. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatureswarmedrapidlyinDecember2015andJanuary2016andpeakedatlevels notseensincethelastverystrongElNiñoeventin1997‐98.Cloudyareasthatnormally Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly) Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected] Climate : Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected] Geo‐Hazards : Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected] ICT and Engineering : Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] occurinthewesternPacificoverVanuatumovedeast,awayfromVanuatu.Tradewinds havebeenmuchweakerthannormal. ComputermodelsandobservationaldatashowthattheElNiñohasstartedtoweaken, andislikelytoendbythemiddleof2016.However,itisexpectedthattheimpactsofthe current El Niño, including less than normal rainfall in Vanuatu, will continue until the middleof2016.ThemodelsindicatethatthereisachancethataLaNiña(whichisthe oppositeofElNiño)maydevelopbytheendof2016.LaNiñabringsalotofrainfallto Vanuatuandthiscanhaveahugeimpactonthesocio‐economiclivelihoodofpeople. 3. CurrentandPotentialImpactsofElNiño DrierthannormalconditionshavebeenobservedthroughoutmuchofVanuatu.Itisvery importanttobeawarethatalthoughtheElNiñoisstartingtoweaken,thisdoesnotmean that rainfall will necessarily return to normal straight away. The entire wet season (NovembertoApril)isexpectedtobedrierthannormal.AlsofromMaytoJulyduringthe 2016dryseason,itislikelytobedrierthannormal.Theimpactsofdroughtaretherefore likelytobefeltformostof2016.Rainfallwillreturntonormalinthenorthernprovinces of Vanuatu first. Therefore, Tafea province will be the last province to recover from droughtmeaningthatitwillhavemorelastingimpactsthanotherprovinces. 3.1. Rainfallanddrought Computer models show that Vanuatu is likely to continue to get lower rainfall thannormalforthenextfewmonthsuntilmid‐2016.Thereisahighconfidence levelinthisforecast.‘Highconfidencelevel’meansthatthereisahighchancethat this forecast will turn out to actually happen. This means that Vanuatu will continuetoexperiencelessrainfallandareasarelikelytoremaindryuntilatleast mid‐2016.Accesstowaterwillcontinuetobeanissueandgardenswillbeless productive. 3.2. Seaandairtemperature Sea temperatures around Vanuatu are about 29 degrees Celsius. This is much warmer than normal for March. Models show that sea temperatures around VanuatuwillstaywarmerthannormalinMarchandApril,thenreturntonormal in May 2016. Warmer than normal sea causes warmer than normal air temperatures.Also,ElNiñocausesVanuatutobelesscloudythanusual,meaning daytimetemperaturesarelikelytobehigher. VanuatuislikelytogethigherthannormalairtemperaturesfortherestofMarch and April 2016. This means people will continue to feel effects of high temperatures,althoughtemperatureswillnotbeashotastheywereinJanuary andFebruary.Peopleneedtodrinkmorewater,stayintheshade,andtrynotto workduringthehottimeoftheday.Thereisalsoahigherchanceofcyclones developing until April 2016 for Vanuatu, because of the warmer sea temperatures. Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly) Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected] Climate : Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected] Geo‐Hazards : Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected] ICT and Engineering : Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] 3.3. SeaLevel ElNiñocausessealevelstoriseinsomepartsofthePacificandtofallinother partsofthePacific.InthecentralPacific(aroundKiribatiandTuvalu)sealevelis higherthannormal–by30cminsomeplaces.InthenorthwestPacific,sealevel islowerthannormal–morethan30cmlowerthannormalinsomeplaces. Vanuatu’s sea level is also declining because of El Niño, but will experience a smallerdeclinein sealevelofabout‐5cm tomid‐2016.However,evenasmall decline in sea level will expose coral reefs to sunlight and will put stress on marineresources.Ontheotherhand,peoplemaybemoreabletoaccessspring wateralongthecoastduringcalmseas. Thesechangesinsealevelsarenotpermanent.OnceElNiñoisfinished,sealevels willeventuallyreturntonormallevels. 3.4. Coralbleaching Warmer sea temperatures and changes in sea levels can cause coral bleaching during El Niño events. Coral bleaching is when coral turns white. Bleaching damagescoraland cancauseittodie.Poorreefmanagementcanincreasethe chanceofdamagingcoralbleachingoccurring. Computermodelsshowtwoscenariosforcoralbleachinginthewatersaround Vanuatu. The first scenario is that there is a very high chance that Torba and Tafeaprovincewillreach‘watch’levelforcoralbleachinginMarch2016.‘Watch’ level means that sea temperatures have warmed to levels that could cause bleaching if they increase further and if reefs are unhealthy. ‘Watch’ level indicatesthatpeopleneedtocarefortheircoralreefstohelppreventbleaching fromoccurring. The second (and worst case) scenario is there is a high chance that Sanma, Penama,MalampaandShefawillreach‘Alertlevel2’levelinApril2016.These levels mean that some island reefs in these provinces will likely experience bleaching.Allprovinceswillreturntothe‘watch’levelinMay2016 At this time where people depend much more on marine resources to survive afterTCPamandduringthecurrentdrought,peopleneedtonotputmorestress onthereefstohelpminimisepossiblebleachingdamage. Thefollowingsections(3.5to3.8)highlightsomeofthesector‐specificimpactsofEl Niño that were identified by participants at the Vanuatu National Climate Outlook Forum,14‐15March2016. Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly) Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected] Climate : Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected] Geo‐Hazards : Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected] ICT and Engineering : Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] 3.5 Health Morefoodandwater‐borne diseasesthan usual,e.g.Cholera, E.coli,Giardia, Shigella,Typhoid,HepatitisA,HepatitisE. Morevector‐bornediseasesduetoincreasedvectordistributionandmicrobial transmission,e.g.Malaria,Dengue,Chickungunya,Zikavirus. Morerodent‐bornediseases,e.g.Leptospirosis. More biotoxins, e.g. fish and shellfish poisoning such as Ciguatera Fish poisoning. 3.6 Waterresources Lowerthanaveragerainfallisaffectingcollectionofwateronislands/areas thatarerainfalldependent. Adecreaseingroundwaterlevelsisaffectinggroundwaterabstractionwater supplysystems. Therehasbeenadecreaseinwaterqualityforrainwatercatchments,surface watersupplysystems/sourcesandgroundwatersupplysystems/sources. 3.7Agriculture,fisheriesandlivestock Additional water has been provided to crops by irrigation (through bucket irrigation,dripirrigation,andsprinklerirrigation). Permacultureanduseofgreywaterhasbeenmorethanusual. More use of resilient farming system techniques e.g. agro‐forestry, alley cropping,andmulching. Somerelocationofgardenstoareasclosertowatersourcestosaveplanting material. More planting of drought resistant varieties taking into consideration temperaturethresholdsforeachcrop. 3.8Tourism Therehavebeensomewatershortagesandcontamination. Foodshortage/vegetablesscarcityisaffectingtouristoperators. Water sources are being contaminated by dust (e.g. from driving on dusty roads). Morefluandcoughoutbreaks. 4. TropicalCycloneOutlookforMarch–April2016 MoretropicalcyclonesthannormalareexpectedtohappeninthesouthwestPacific during the current 2015‐2016 season. In the past, there have usually been higher numbersoftropicalcyclonesoccurringduringElNiñoevents. InVanuatu,2to6namedtropicalcyclonesareexpectedtohappeninthe2015‐2016 season(NovembertoApril).Thisisahighernumberthannormal. Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly) Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected] Climate : Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected] Geo‐Hazards : Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected] ICT and Engineering : Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] ‘Named’tropicalcyclonemeansonethatisCategory1to5,sothisdoesnotinclude tropicalstorms.ItislikelythatatleastoneofthetropicalcycloneswillbeCategory3 orstronger.Sofarthisseason,therehavebeen4tropicalcyclonesthathavecome nearVanuatu.Hence,thereisstillariskforApril2016ofmoretropicalcyclones. DuringElNiñoevents,tropicalcyclonetrackscanbelesspredictablethannormal. Tropicalcyclonesmayalsolastlonger,meaningmoredamagemayhappenifacyclone survivesinanareaforalongtime. Sourcesofinformation 1. ‘Regional Statement on the El Niño and Potential Impacts for the Pacific Islands’ developedatthefirstPacificIslandsClimateOutlookForum,12‐16October2015. 2.NationalClimateOutlookForum(NCOF),MelanesianHotel,PortVila,Vanuatu,14‐15 March2016. RepresentativesattheNCOFwerefromthefollowingagencies:VanuatuMeteorologyand Geo‐Hazards Department (VMGD), National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), Red Cross,ProvincialGovernment,VanuatuRainfallNetwork(VRN)andotherNGOsandUN agencies. Observations: Forecast: Climate Change: (To contact VMGD Divisions directly) Ph: 22433 | Email: [email protected] Climate : Ph: 22932 | Email: [email protected] Geo‐Hazards : Ph: 22331 | Email: [email protected] ICT and Engineering : Ph: 23866 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected] Ph: 24686 | Email: [email protected]