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RS 80 Across the Mediterranean : Egypt - a history, in brief By Lauren Williamson M.A. One of the earliest known civilizations of the ancient world—opulent in culture and advanced in learning—once dwelled among the desert lands of Egypt. Indeed, the Pharaonic period in Egyptian history propelled the country into international leadership for hundreds of years. The iconic architecture of the Great Pyramid and Great Sphinx are testaments to this era, but political and economic pressures have prevented the country from sustaining its historic grandeur into the present era. A unified Egyptian nation has existed for at least five thousand years. The end of the ancient dynasties of the Old Kingdom (around 2150 BC) led to a period of social upheaval, followed by ancient Egypt’s ascent to global prominence. Some scholars argue that the foundations of democracy were established during the New Kingdom when citizens expected benevolence, mercy and judiciousness from their rulers. The New Kingdom’s culture inspired myths like “The Eloquent Peasant,” which outlined basic human rights and adequate treatment of lower classes. The famous suicide of Queen Cleopatra in 30 BC ended this legendary era, as Romans took control of the territory. From this point, Egypt was dominated by several external powers including the Persians. By 639 AD, Egypt was absorbed into the Muslim Empire. The Ottoman Turks seized the lands in the 1500s, and in the late 18th century Napoleon Bonaparte attempted to exert French influence so as to thwart British trade interests in the East. Napoleon advocated his campaign as an attempt to free the oppressed Muslims from the Ottoman Empire, but by 1802 a treaty relinquished Egypt back to the Ottomans. Researcher and author Robert Pateman argues that Egypt has remained remarkably homogenous despite these varied influences on its culture. Page 1 of 7 Two booming problems: Population and poverty Geological evidence suggests that the Sahara desert has expanded over time and Egypt once had much more arable soil. Around 2150 BC, climate change brought cooler, drier weather to the region, resulting in erratic river flooding and trauma to the settled civilization. Periods of high floods drowned hundreds of thousands at a time; subsequent low flooding prompted famine and starvation. One such famine occurred in 1202 AD, the horrifying circumstances of which were recorded by scholar Abdel-Latif Al-Baghdadi. Among the scenes he described were families cannibalizing loved ones to survive and noblewomen selling themselves as slaves in hopes of escaping. Still, Egypt’s dense population is packed around Cairo, Alexandria and the Nile River, where the only arable land exists today. Egypt’s growing population of more than 80 million makes it the Arab world’s most populous country. Egypt’s inability to grow substantial enough food supplies has contributed to its past economic struggles and over-reliance on imports, thus creating a sizable trade deficit. However, since the 1980s the government has taken measurable steps to liberalize and diversify its economy. Its tourism, and media and service sectors have improved, though the country remains dependent on oil exports. Even with the recent reforms, Egypt has failed to spur its economy in a way that increases living standards for its citizens. Cairo is believed to have one of the largest urban slum populations in the world. The Centre for Development Policy and Research estimates that poverty rates in rural areas are twice as high as in the urban centres. The United Nations says that 30 percent of Egyptians live below international poverty standards, and there are more than 28 million children without adequate housing, water, sanitation or enough food. This situation will take a heavy toll on Egypt’s future workforce, as impoverished students are less likely to attend or finish school, thereby making them unskilled labourers once they reach adulthood. Page 2 of 7 The 23 million landmines lying under the country’s soil provide additional constraints on Egypt’s economic growth. Most of the mines were laid by Axis and Allied powers during World War II. Egypt has sought international cooperation in their demining efforts, a task which the government alone cannot afford. Removing the 17.5 million landmines in the El-Alamain fields would cost approximately $20 billion. In the meantime, the landmines harm and kill hundreds of people every year, only adding to the country’s health costs and deterring investors, who are limited in where they can safely build businesses. Invasions, interventions, infighting The Suez Canal, an artificial waterway connecting the Mediterranean and Red Sea, is a crucial revenue source that services 7.5 percent of world trade. The canal, finished in 1869, brought in nearly $19 million profits in 2010, reminding Egyptians of the channel’s strategic significance. Though it offers the primary shipping route to the East, pirate attacks off the Somali coast have prompted many businesses to opt for the longer route around southern Africa, which has harmed Egypt’s revenue. This profitable waterway has caused serious disputes in the past. President Nasser’s decision to nationalize the canal led to the Suez Crisis of 1956. Britain, France and Israel invaded Egypt to protect their trade interests, causing an international uproar. The UN deployed its first peacekeeping force during the event to help reopen the blocked canal, which was impeding international transport. After economic sanctions, Britain and France withdrew. Israeli forces eventually pulled out, but tensions between Israel and Egypt festered, resulting in subsequent conflicts until the Camp David Accords were signed in 1978. Egypt was condemned by other Arab states for legitimizing the existence of Israel, but it has maintained the peace alliance. Since the Camp David Accords, Egypt has not directly been involved in any major wars. However, in the winter of 2008-2009, the Israeli-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip occurred at the intersecting border with Egypt. Egypt’s public stance on the war caused a diplomatic headache for officials. Though poised Page 3 of 7 to be a mediator between the two nations, Egypt could not pander too much to Israel and risk losing Arab allies, nor could it offer support to the extremist group Hamas, lest that bolster Egyptian extremist groups. Even now, with the Gaza War over, there are still frequent attacks around the Gaza border and problems with weapons smuggling, which has contributed to the recent upsurge in violence within Egypt. Israel and Egypt have been working to capture militants and extremists, but this only addresses one facet of the multi-layered, multi-sectarian problem of violent attacks in Egypt. The assassination of President Anwar Al-Sadat in 1981, claimed by the jihadist group, Tanzin Al-Jihad, is considered a commencing point for the expansion of violent groups and increases in violent attacks during the last two decades. Other extremist factions gained prowess during the following years, including Gama’a Islamiya, which seized control of an area of Cairo in 1992, invoking Shari’a law. Members of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which merged with Al-Qaeda before the 9/11 attacks, began targeting tourists in the late 1990s as part of the movement’s focus on the “far enemy,” or Westerners. Coptic Christians and other Christian sects are also targets of brutality. On the political horizon Partly responsible for the grievances of Egyptian extremist groups is the government’s law that bans any political party with an overtly religious agenda. Simply put, jihadist groups and others religious sects such as the Muslim Brotherhood cannot gain political legitimacy in Egypt; they covertly run as independent candidates in elections. President Mubarak, who has held office since 1981 and is the longest tenured president since Egypt gained independence, has been criticized harshly for not taking stronger action to mitigate the violence. Rather, his authoritarianlike policies have further inflamed dissatisfied groups. After Mubarak won his fifth term during the country’s first multi-party elections in 2005, he bore down Page 4 of 7 harshly on opposition parties, prompting condemnation from human rights agencies like Amnesty International. In the run up to the November 2010 legislative elections, five thousand candidates registered for parliamentary spots. During the 2010 campaigns, watchdog agencies reported that Egyptian officials unjustly jailed, beat or exiled dozens of intellectuals and journalists, despite freedom of expression being explicitly guaranteed in the 1971 constitution. The bubbling anxieties prompted the US to call for international elections monitors to ensure the proceedings were carried out democratically and free of corruption. Those requests were denied by Mubarak's administration. This political climate does not bode well for the upcoming 2011 presidential elections. The IMF applauds the economic reforms enacted under Mubarak’s leadership and lists Egypt as one of the fastest reforming nations in the world. But the country has yet to effectively solve its poverty and unemployment issues. This feeds into the growing malcontent felt by citizens who want new leadership. In spite of rumours of the 82 year old's failing health, Mubarak is expected to run for presidential re-election. However, if he steps aside, it is believed that his son Gamal, a leader within the ruling National Democratic Party, would assume the role. Mubarak's public stance is that he welcomes new presidential candidates who can bring benefits to Egyptian society. But in light of recent protests, if no clear favourite emerges during the campaign, it could aggravate political tensions and possibly fuel another spike in violence within Egypt. Page 5 of 7 Key Facts Capital: Cairo Government: Republic President: Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak Prime Minister: Ahmed Nazif Language: Arabic Geography Area: 1,001,450 km sq. Bordering Countries: Libya, Sudan, Israel, Gaza Strip Waters: Nile River, Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea Climate: Hot and dry Terrain: Desert plateau, river valley People Population: 80,471,869 (CIA 2010 estimate) Ethnicities: predominantly Egyptian, Bedouin Arabs and Nubian Religion: 90% Muslim (Sunni), 9% Coptic Christian, 1% other Economy GDP: $188 billion (US Dept of State 2009) Exports: Oil exports at 155,200 barrels/day; metal, cotton, textiles and chemicals Unemployment: 9.4% Timeline 1859 Work on the Suez Canal project, an artificial waterway connecting the Mediterranean and Red Sea, begins, opening 10 years later. 1914 Egypt becomes a British protectorate. 1922 Egypt gains independence from Britain. 1928 Hasan Al-Banna founds the Muslim Brotherhood, by now the largest and oldest political Islamist group. 1952 During the “July 23rd Revolution” the nation is declared a republic. 1956 President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalizes the Suez Canal, prompting the Suez Crisis. 1967 Israel surprise attacks Egypt, prompting the Six Day War. Egypt is defeated; Israel takes control of the Gaza Strip and Sinai Peninsula. 1973 Egypt and Syria attack Israel to reclaim lands lost in the Six Day War. 1978 The Camp David Accords are signed, preserving peace between Egypt and Israel. Egypt is excluded from the Arab League. 1981 President Anwar Al-Sadat is assassinated along with six other diplomats. The murders are attributed to a jihadist group. 1989 Egypt is permitted to rejoin the Arab League. 1999 Egypt asks former Allied and Axis countries to provide financial and technological support to de-mine Egypt’s 23 million landmines. 2005 A May referendum paves the way for the country’s first direct multi-party presidential election. Incumbent Hosni Mubarak wins a fifth consecutive sixyear term. The election result is highly contested. Page 6 of 7 2010 Parliamentary elections in November prompt allegations of government corruption and election fraud. US calls for international election monitors are denied. 2011 A week of street riots at the end of January calling for change including the resignation of President Mubarak This is part of a series of papers about the EU’s southern neighbours across the Mediterranean Sea. Previously : Regional study RS 50F Across the Mediterranean - North African dynamics: Relations between Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, the European Union and other major powers - January 2008 view Regional study RS 50E Across the Mediterranean : Tunisia – market analysis (Nov 2007) view Regional study RS 50D Across the Mediterranean: Algeria – Procurement and the drive to secure energy (Nov 2007) view Regional Study RS 50C Across the Mediterranean : Egypt- Procurement and the North African market (Nov 2007) view Regional study RS 50B Across the Mediterranean : Defence procurement and market access in Libya (Nov 2007) view Regional study RS 50A Across the Mediterranean - Morocco: market access and procurement (Nov 2007) Disclaimer The views of authors are their own. The UK Defence Forum holds no corporate view on the opinions expressed in papers or at meetings. The Forum exists to enable politicians, industrialists, members of the armed forces, academics and others with an interest in defence and security issues to exchange information and views on the future needs of Britain’s defence. It is operated by a non-partisan, not for profit company. UK Defence Forum papers are archived at www.ukdf.org.uk - the last three years being accessible only to members and subscribers. Prior to that they are in the public domain subject to usual conventions. Members wishing to comment on papers can access a noticeboard via the members area of the website www.ukdf.org.uk January 2011 Page 7 of 7