Download Presentation - 2016 Hazus Conference

Extending Hazus Outside of Emergency
Management: Focus on Resiliency and
Novel Research Approaches
Norman LEVINE
College of Charleston
Charleston is a place both in
and out of time
• Charleston is a city of firsts
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First southern colony to be founded on religious freedom
First Colony to Secede from England
First State to Secede from the Union
First shot fired
in the Civil War
• Charleston is also a city of Lasts
– We still speak of the war of Northern Aggression
• Even without these features Charleston would
still be a Geoscientists dream city
Why Charleston?
• Charleston a unique
environment civic engagement
• #1 tourist destination – Condé
Nast Travel Magazine
• Historic city – Colonial, Civil War
with a focus on preservation
• One of the fastest growing
regions in the US
• Growing business and
manufacturing industries
– Google, Boeing, Volvo
• Home to State and Federal
Agencies
• And ……
Charleston, South Carolina:
“The Hazards Capital of the East”
• Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods, Thunderstorms,
Tornadoes, Freak Weather (snow – hail – Rain bombs),
“Wildlife issues”, Mold, Allergens, Smog Pollution,
Wildfires, Hazardous Materials, Poverty, Coastal
Erosion, saltwater intrusion, marsh land degradation,
land subsidence
- - - and more…..
Charleston Resilience Network
• Private
• Local
• Regional /
State
• Federal
• Academic
Common Vision
• Resilience is…
the capacity of individuals, communities,
institutions, businesses, and systems
within the Charleston region to survive,
adapt and grow despite episodic
natural disasters and chronic coastal
hazards. Resilience requires preparation
and planning to absorb, recover and
successfully adapt to these adverse
events and conditions.
Socio-Economic Issue for
Resiliency
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At Risk Populations
Hazardous Materials
Infrastructure Age and Suitability
Heavy Reliance on Tourism and Ports
• Population Growth
• Business Stability
Population Now and then
~100,000 people In Charleston
50,000 Charleston, 40,000 +
Shifted across the state
Rising Sea Level
Plain Old King tide
Flooding in communities
Add Rain / or
Surge and the
lowcountry
Lives up to its
Name
Cane Bay:
Summerville
Images
courtesy of
NWS
Charleston,
SC
West Ashley
Emergency Vehicles Affected
• National Guard Towing Charleston Fire truck Stalled by
Waters
Church Street
Dealing with the Problem
• Create Better Flood Maps
• Create tools for managers and First
Responders
• Communicate Risk to the Public
Developing high resolution data sets
• Scale Matters
Hydrologic flow
depends on grid size
1 Meter DEM of Entire County
• It is the largest county in South
Carolina by total land and water
area, 1,358 square miles
(3,520 km2)
•
916 square miles
(2,370 km2) is land and
442 square miles
(1,140 km2) (33%) is
water / marsh
The Dem reveals pre-fill fabric
Quick - DoWap Region
• When land is at
a premium –
people do the
darnedest
things
• Growth has
encroached into
undesirable land
leading to increased
flooding
Inundation Modeling in the Region
• Generally described as “Bathtub Models”
• Major Problems
– Normally low zones inland may flood but not be
connected to a water source
– resolution issues may greatly over/under estimate total
flooded area
• Our solutions
– Very high resolution DEM
– Knowledge of storm drains and ditching for enhanced
accuracy
– Implemented in 1 inch increments for full tide height to
match time of day
The October Rain Storm Maximum
Flooding
Morris and Jasper
Bennett and Gadsden
Calhoun Street
Huger and King
Battery Flooding
2016 not a bad year
• Although there were a lot (14) of named
storms the total number of Hurricanes
Making an impact was lower than usual.
• Yet the damage from Mathew is still being
caluclated
• So lets take a closer look
Hurricanes seasons since 1851
Years
with
the
most
named
storms
since
2000
Rank
Year
Number of Storms
1.
2005
28
2.
1933
20
3.
2012
19
3.
2011
19
3.
2010
19
3.
1995
19
3.
1887
19
8.
1969
18
9.
2008
16
9.
2003
16
9.
1936
16
12.
2007
15
13.
2004
15
14.
2001
15
15.
2000
15
Costliest Atlantic hurricanes
Costliest Atlantic hurricanes
Billions
Name
Year
$108.0
Hurricane Katrina
2005
$74.0
Hurricane Sandy
2012
$37.5
Hurricane Ike
2008
$29.2
Hurricane Wilma
2005
$26.5
Hurricane Andrew
1992
$23.0
Hurricane Ivan
2004
$16.6
Hurricane Irene
2011
$16.0
Hurricane Charley
2004
$12.0
Hurricane Rita
2005
$10.2
Hurricane Gilbert
1988
HAZUS flood model runs – Saved lives
The high resolution
DEM was used to create
flood extent polygons for
10, 25, 50,100, and 500
year storms.
This information has
already been put in an
app used by emergency
responders to decide
where to block off roads
in intersection during
storms.
How bad was Mathew
• SCDHEC Hurricane Matthew Post-Storm
Assessment Photos
Shake – Rattle and Roll
• Life in Charleston can be considered “a
ground shaking” Experience
• Background of 3-5 felt earthquakes a year
indicates things are still moving.
• This low number of earthquakes makes it
harder to predict.
• Estimate a recurrence of a 7.0 magnitude
or greater is 400-500 years based on
liquefaction features. (let’s here it for the age dating
community)
• 5 and 6 magnitude may not leave
Most Devastating Earthquake in the
19th Century
Charleston (Summerville, SC)
Aug 31, 1886 at 9:51 pm
Magnitude 7.3
Rang Church Bells in New York, Boston,
Milwaukee
Felt in Cuba, Canada, and the Bahamas
$23 Million in Damage
~100 Dead
6,956 Buildings needed
repair 69% on "made
ground"
Damaged Ports
• Port of Charleston creates 55,000 jobs and over $3.3 billion
• Statewide it creates 280,000 jobs and over $23 billion
• Fourth busiest port in the US East Coast
6.3 MM
7.3 MM
Jarrod
Where do we go from here
•Parcel level data is being overlaid
with the flood hazard extents to
prioritize mitigation and planning for
regions with highest risk.
Tomorrow:
Poster 242-7: A Buildinglevel Hazards Assessment
for Charleston County, SC
3D Visualizations
Currently
working on
models for
Local high
intensity Rain
Events
Hurricane /
Surge Planning
Developing
Scalable 3D
models for
Planners
Thank you
• Questions