Download 2013 Lebanon Conflict Diagnostic Presentation

CRISIS IN LEBANON
Syrian Refugees & Political Instability
Background
g
…
Summary:
y
†
Current conflict in Syria has caused within Lebanon:
A humanitarian crisis
„ Economic
E
i iinstability
t bilit
„ Sectarian violence
„
…
Brief History:
Ottoman Empire
„ French mandate
„ Independence
„ Sectarian politics
„ Demographic changes
„ Civil War
„ Israeli & Syrian occupations
„
Primary
y Stakeholders
…
…
…
…
Syria Æ Impact: Negative
Hezbollah, the March 8th Alliance, and Shia
Muslims Æ Impact: Mixed
Lebanese Armed Forces & Government Æ Impact:
Positive
Future Movement, the March 14th Alliance, and
Sunni Muslims Æ Impact: Mixed
Secondary
y Stakeholders
…
…
…
…
…
United States Æ Impact: Mixed
Iran Æ Impact: Mixed
Israel ÆImpact: Negative
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
Æ Impact: Positive
Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq, and Jordan Æ
Impact: Negative
History
y of Armed Conflict
…
Overall = deteriorating
conflict (2006 - Present) Æ constant
† Refugees Produced (2006 - 2012) Æ increasing
† Refugees hosted, IDPs, Others of Concern (2006 present) Æ increasing significantly
† Armed
…
Assessment:
† Spill-over
from Syrian conflict has culminated in isolated
attacks, and increasing refugees produced and hosted,
leading to economic and political instability within
Lebanon.
Lebanon
Governance & Political Instabilityy
…
Overall = Stable
Level of democracy (2006 - 2012) Æ constant
† Regime durability (2006 - 2012) Æ constant
† Restrictions on CR & PR (2006 - 2012) Æ decreased then
increased
† Restrictions on Press Freedom ((2006 - 2013)) Æ slight
g
increase
† Control of corruption (2006 - 2012) Æ increased then
decreased
†
…
Assessment = the relative consistency of these indicators
should have a stabilizing influence within Lebanon.
Militarization
Population
p
Heterogeneity
g
y
Population Heterogeneity
9%
7%
30%
24%
30%
Maronite Christians
Shi'is
Sunnis
Druze
Palestinians
Demographic
g p Stress
Economic Performance (1/4)
( / )
GDP Growth Rate (Annual %)
GDP per Capita,
C it PPP
10
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
,
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
8
6
GDP per
Capita, PPP
GDP G
Growth
th Rate
R t
4
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Debt Service (% of
GNI)
Inflation (Annual %)
5
4
3
Inflation (Annual
%)
2
1
0
25
20
15
10
5
0
Total Debt
Service (% of
GNI)
2006200720082009201020112012
World Bank Development Indicators
Economic Performance (2/4)
( / )
Foreign Direct Investment
Trade Openness
16
90
14
80
12
70
10
60
8
Foreign Direct
Investment
6
50
Trade Openness
40
4
30
2
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Economic Performance (3/4)
( / )
…
SSyrian
i conflict
fli t iis
negatively
impacting:
† Tourism
† Trade
Routes
Economic Performance (4/4)
( / )
Refugee
f
Impact:
… Labour
… Rising unemployment
… Poverty
Human Development
p
Up to 2011:
… Life expectancy: 80
… Infant mortality rate: 8 deaths/1
deaths/1,000
000 live births
… Maternal mortality rate: 25 deaths/year
… School
S h l enrollment
ll
rates:
† Primary:
95%
† Secondary:
S
d
76%
After 2011, struggle for state to provide these
services
i
Environmental Stress
…
…
…
Population density: 428/km2
Freshwater resouces declining
Deforestation rate is stable
International Linkages
g
Conflict Factors
•
•
•
•
Peace Factors
Ongoing civil war in neighboring Syria , • Presence of the United Nation Interim
resulting in large influxes of refugees
Force in Lebanon since 1978
and instances of spillover violence
• Strong international commitment to help
Di t d tterritory
Disputed
it
with
ith Syria
S i ((contested
t t d
L b
Lebanon
withstand
ith t d the
th mostt adverse
d
borders) and Israel (Shebaa Farms)
demographic/economic/ human
Sectarian paramilitaries receiving
development pressures of the refugee
international support
crisis –notably, the creation of the
Lowering of international economic
International Support Group for Lebanon
activities because of the ongoing Syrian
by all major UN groups and the Security
conflict –blockage of trade routes to
Council.
Jordan Iraq
Jordan,
Iraq, and nations of the Gulf
Cooperation Council; active international
dissuade against tourism in the region
(an important source of revenue for the
country).
Scenarios: Six Months Ahead
Best Case
…
…
…
…
…
The Syrian Civil War is contained inside
Syria's borders
Prevention of any further spillover effect
in Lebanon
Sectarian violence between March 8th
(Shiite Muslims) vs. March 14th Alliance
(Sunni Muslims) diminishes enough so as
not to constitute a threat to Lebanon's
security.
The UNHCR and the international
community increase their refugee quotas
International trade resumes and
humanitarian aid flows into Lebanon to
support its social infrastructure.
Worst Case
…
…
…
…
Syria's civil war causes spillover of
violence into Lebanon and increase of
sectarian tensions between the March 8th
and March 14th Alliance
Influx of refugees into Lebanon
overwhelms the government's capacity to
provide basic social services,, causing
p
g
social unrest
Additional investors cut off economic ties
to Lebanon and bilateral aid comes too
late
These factors lead to the deterioration of
governmental structures under the stress
of the Syrian crisis
Most Likely
y Scenario
“The conflict in Syria will continue to spill over into Lebanon. Hezbollah
will continue to show their support for the Assad regime while the
Lebanese government and March 14th Alliance maintain calls for
Hezbollah to withdraw from the conflict, continuing to cause sectarian
conflict in Lebanon. Refugees will continue to migrate and seek asylum
in Lebanon, further augmenting financial pressures on the state and
causing social unrest as poverty and unemployment deepen in Lebanon.
Th iinternational
The
t
ti l community
it iis strongly
t
l supportive
ti off LLebanon,
b
as
evidenced by the creation of the International Support Group for
Lebanon, and will take action to alleviate Lebanon’s financial pressure.
This will ensure the Lebanese will face hardship,
p but not the hardshipp of
state failure.”