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A market is a way of organizing trading between sellers of a good and buyers of that good. It gives 1. a procedure for finding potential trading partners 2. rules for interaction between buyers and sellers 3. possibly enforcement of contracts between buyers and sellers Examples of markets: market for wheat - buyers and sellers meet at specific time and place, auctioneer sets prices and arranges sales. market for ice cream in some town. -many sellers of ice cream at different locations in town. -selling and buying takes place at any time buyer chooses. - no auctioneer calls out price of ice cream. Yet market for ice cream is organized. There are known locations where one can get ice cream. The price is determined by competitive market forces. In this class, we will focus on markets that are efficiently organized. Some markets, like market for used bikes, are relatively disorganized. There is no specific location where one can go to for sure to find a used bike – perhaps look in newspaper advertisements or look for garage sales. Ebay has made the markets for all kinds of used goods more organized. By looking on Ebay, there is a good chance of a potential buyer finding what she is looking for, and a good chance of a potential seller finding a buyer. Markets for things or skills that are rare or in very low demand also tend to be disorganized – where would you go to find a translator from Syriac into Nahuatl? Or if you had that skill, where would you find an employer? Competition A competitive market is a market in which each individual buyer and each individual seller has a negligible effect on the price. Ice cream market is competitive: If one seller alone raises price, all buyers will buy from another seller. Similarly no individual buyer can cause price to fall or rise. This chapter assumes markets perfectly competitive. Two conditions: 1. No individual buyer or seller has any effect on price. 2. All products in a market exactly identical. Some real markets are nearly perfectly competitive. Wheat market and other agricultural goods markets. Most real-life markets not perfectly competitive. Monopoly - one seller. e.g. local cable company Oligopoly - several sellers have some price-setting power. Monopolistic Competition Demand A buyer’s demand for a good is the amount of the good that the buyer is willing and able to buy. 1 Many things determine the demand for a good, among them price. The demand curve for an buyer shows the amount of a good the buyer would buy at different prices, with all other factors held constant. Most demand curves are downward-sloping. The higher the price, the less a buyer buys of the good with other factors held constant. The market demand for a good is the sum of all individual buyers’ demands for the good. At each price, sum the quantities demanded over all individual buyers. This corresponds to summing the graphs of demand curves horizontally. Supply A seller’s supply of a good is the amount of the good the seller is willing to sell. Many factors determine supply of a good, among them price of the good. The supply curve for a seller shows the amount of the good the buyer would be willing to sell at different prices, with all other factors held constant. Most supply curves are upward-sloping. The higher the price, the more a seller would like to sell of the good with other factors held constant. Note: The supply curve for labor could be downward-sloping for some people. For instance, if a person wants more leisure when they get more money. The market supply for a good is the sum of all individual sellers’ supplies of the good. At each price, sum the quantity supplied over all sellers. This corresponds to summing the graphs of supply curves horizontally. An equilibrium price of the good and an equilibrium amount supplied and bought is determined by an intersection of the market demand curve and the market supply curve. (If the supply curve is upward-sloping and the demand curve is downward sloping, there is only one equilibrium). This is a quantity where amount demanded of the good equals amount supplied of the good. The corresponding price is the price at which buyers are willing to buy that total amount of the good and sellers are willing to sell that total amount of the good. When the economy is out of equilibrium (demand for a good at the price offered does not equal supply of the good at that price) there are forces that cause a change. When the economy is in equilibrium, those forces are absent. What forces cause change when the economy is out of equilibrium? 2 Suppose there is excess supply – the quantity that sellers want to sell at the given price is higher than the quantity that buyers want to buy at that price. Then sellers notice that some units are not being sold. If the good is not durable, they will lose the unsold items. They lower price to be able to sell more. Suppose there is excess demand – the quantity that buyers want to buy at the given price is higher than the quantity sellers are willing to sell at that price. Sellers will notice this in some way, and they will raise their price to a price at which they are willing to sell more. When supply curve is upward-sloping and demand curve is downward-sloping, these forces drive the economy to the equilibrium price and quantity. Is the economy in equilibrium or is it just tending toward it? Depends on how quickly prices adjust to changes in factors. In some markets, like markets for financial assets (e.g. currency futures – contracts to trade one currency for another at some future date), prices adjust very fast. The market for currency futures is essentially open all the time. In the stock markets as well, prices adjust very fast. In other markets, prices adjust more slowly. For instance the labor market. (Day labor wages adjust fast, sometimes in auctions.) Long-term jobs’ salaries specified by contract, which may be for 3 or more years. Other shocks may occur in the meantime that the salary can’t adjust to. Factors that cause shifts in the demand and supply curves. There are other factors that influence demand for a good besides price. When one of these factors changes, the demand curve shifts – the amount of the good bought at any given price may be different. A shift to the right of a demand curve (buyers would buy more at any given price) is called an increase in demand. A shift to the left of a demand curve (buyers would buy less at any given price) is called a decrease in demand. Examples of these factors: 1. Income – For most goods, when a person’s income falls, their demand for that good also falls. Such goods are called normal goods. 3 However there are goods for which demand rises when income falls. Such goods are called inferior goods. E.g. bus rides, low-quality substitutes for higher-quality goods, used cars. 2. Prices of related goods – if the price of frozen yogurt falls, some consumers of ice cream will buy more frozen yogurt and less ice cream. Frozen yogurt is a substitute for ice cream. Good B is a substitute for good A if the demand for good B falls when the price of good A falls. If the price of computers falls, people will buy more software. Software is a complement of computers. Good B is a complement of good A if the demand for good B rises when the price of good A falls. 3. Tastes and needs– the tastes for any good can change, for example if a consumer good goes in or out of style. Or, if scientific research concludes that a food is very good for you, the tastes for that food will probably change, leading to an increase in demand for that food. Needs for a good also change depending on circumstances – a person who falls sick will need medicine that she didn’t buy before. 4. Expectations of future prices/conditions – a person who expects to earn a higher income next month may smooth that income increase by spending more this month as well. The effect will be similar to an income increase now. More of normal goods and less of inferior goods will be bought. If a person expects the price of ice cream to fall tomorrow, they may wait until tomorrow to buy ice cream and be less likely to buy it today. If a buyer expects the price of a durable or nonperishable good to rise in the future, they may buy more of it now. For instance, demand for oil increased because of expectations of a future rise in price (and this caused price of oil to rise). 5. government regulations – there could be price controls, a good could become illegal, or restricted in the way it gets used. For instance, when alcohol was banned in the USA in 1920’s it changed the demand for it and for different qualities of alcohol. The shape of the demand curve Besides being downwards-sloping in general, there is no restriction on the shape of the demand curve. 4 The shifts due to the changes in factors mentioned above need not cause a parallel shift in the demand curve – they may change its shape. For instance, suppose a new substitute for ice cream becomes available at a reasonable price. People who would only buy ice cream at a very low price wouldn’t change their consumption of ice cream due to the availability of substitute. But people who were buying ice cream at high prices would probably change to the substitute – their consumption of ice cream would decrease significantly. There may be only a few who remain loyal to ice cream even at high prices. So the new demand curve for ice cream could be curved and below the original demand curve. Ways to reduce the quantity of smoking demanded. Suppose the government wants to reduce the amount of smoking. One way to do this is to cause the demand curve for smoking to shift to the left. How can this be achieved? Cause people’s income to fall - not a very good method. Lower the price of substitutes or increase the price of complements? What are substitutes or complements of cigarettes? Change tastes - public health announcements, prohibition of cigarette ads on TV. Another way to reduce the amount of smoking is to raise price of cigarettes. This can be done with a tax on cigarettes – sellers will pass at least some of the tax on to the buyers as a higher price. Cigarettes are taxed at one of the highest rates of any good, at a rate of 100 percent. However, tobacco is subsidized by the government. This makes it hard to figure out the true tax rate on cigarettes net of the subsidy on tobacco. The tax raising the price of cigarettes causes a movement up along the demand curve. 5 Policies to reduce demand cause a shift of the demand curve. Economists have estimated how much amount of smoking responds to a change in cigarette price, by looking at what happens when tax changes. They found a 10 percent increase in cigarette price causes a 4 percent reduction in total quantity demanded. For teenagers, the reduction is 12 percent. Opponents of cigarette taxes claim tobacco and marijuana are substitutes – then an increase in cigarette price would increase marijuana consumption. But most studies find that tobacco and marijuana are complements. Supply shifters There are other factors besides price that affect the amount of a good sellers sell. These factors shift the supply curve. The amount of the good sellers would sell at any price changes. When the quantity supplied rises at any price, it is called an increase in supply. When the quantity supplied at any price decreases, it is called a decrease in supply. Examples of factors that shift the supply curve: 1. A change in the price of an input – suppose the price of sugar falls. Sugar is an input for ice cream. Then the production of ice cream becomes more profitable at any price of ice cream. So sellers are willing to supply more ice cream at any price. Suppose the price of labor rises. Then each unit of ice cream sold becomes less profitable, so the seller sells less at any given price. 2. A change in technology – when mechanized ice cream machines were invented, it lowered the labor cost required to produce a unit of ice cream. This made each unit of ice cream more profitable, so sellers would sell more at any given price. 3. Expectations of a change in conditions – If a firm expects the price of ice cream to rise in the near future, it might put some ice cream in storage or produce less today, so present supply declines. 6 If a hurricane is expected to destroy many oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, decreasing the supply of oil, other sellers may expect the price to rise in the future. Then they may sell less oil now and save it for later when the price is higher. So the supply decreases now due to the expectation of a supply decrease. 4. Number of sellers – when an additional seller enters the market for a good, supply rises. When a seller exits the market, supply falls (at least temporarily). Changes in Equilibrium How do shifts in the demand and the supply curve change the equilibrium price and quantity? Suppose one summer the weather is very hot, and people’s tastes are such that the hotter it is, the more ice cream they want at any given price. Then the demand curve shifts to the right. An increase in demand P S C P1 A B D1 D2 Q The original price P 1 is now such that there is excess demand. Sellers will raise the price until the new amount demanded equals amount supplied at that 7 price. Both price and amount bought and sold rise. Compare C to A on the graph. Suppose in another summer a hurricane destroys part of the sugarcane crop (or corn crop). This causes price of sugar to rise. The rise in price of sugar, an input for ice cream, causes the supply curve for ice cream to shift to the left – there is less supplied at any given price. A decrease in supply P S2 S1 C P1 B A D Q The original price P 1 is now such that there is excess demand. Sellers will raise the price until the new amount demanded equals the amount supplied. Equilibrium price rises and equilibrium quantity bought and sold decreases due to the change. Compare C to A on the graph. Now suppose that the heat wave and the hurricane occur simultaneously. Both curves will shift simultaneously. The demand curve will shift to the right, and the supply curve will shift to 8 the left. P D1 S2 D2 S1 P1 Q The price rises unambiguously, since both of the changes individually cause price to rise. Uncertain what happens to quantity – it depends on the relative sizes of the shifts in demand and supply. 9