Download Yearbook of International Religious Demography 2015

Yearbook of International
Religious Demography 2015
Edited by
Brian J. Grim
Todd M. Johnson
Vegard Skirbekk
Gina A. Zurlo
LEIDEN | BOSTON
For use by the Author only | © 2015 Koninklijke Brill NV
Contents
Preface IX
List of Illustrations XI
Editors and Contributors XV
Introduction XIX
part 1
The World by Religion
1 The World by Religion 3
Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo
Non-Religionists 3
Agnostics 5
Atheists 5
Religionists 13
Baha’is 17
Buddhists 21
Chinese Folk-Religionists 28
Christians 30
Confucianists 31
Daoists 31
Ethnoreligionists 39
Hindus 44
Jains 45
Jews 53
Muslims 56
New Religionists 61
Shintoists 68
Sikhs 70
Spiritists 73
Zoroastrians 80
Part 2
Religions by Continent
2 Religions by Continent 87
Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo
Religions in Africa 87
Religions in Asia 89
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vi
contents
Religions in Europe 89
Religions in Latin America 91
Religions in Northern America 93
Religions in Oceania 96
Part 3
Case Studies and Methodology
3 Global Population Projections by Religion: 2010–2050 101
Marcin Stonawski, Vegard Skirbekk, Conrad Hackett, Michaela Potančoková,
Phillip Connor and Brian Grim
Motivation 101
Data and Methods 102
Results 107
4 Trends, Patterns, and Determinants of Interreligious Partnerships in
Austria (1971–2001) 117
Raya Muttarak and Maria Rita Testa
Data and Methods 118
Descriptive Results 120
Multivariate Results 123
Discussion 132
Conclusion 133
5 The International Demography of Atheists 136
Ariela Keysar
Atheists Worldwide 137
Demographics of Self-defined Atheists and Non-believers 144
The Nones 147
Other Methodological Challenges 149
Conclusion 151
6 Tracking the Emigration of Christians from the Middle East 154
Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo
Changing Demographics of Global Christianity 155
Changing Demographics of Middle Eastern Christianity 157
Major Christian Traditions in the Middle East 159
Conclusion 159
7 Misunderstood Population? Methodological Debate on Demography
of Muslims 163
Yaghoob Foroutan
Background 163
For use by the Author only | © 2015 Koninklijke Brill NV
Contents
Methodology 164
Research Results 165
Concluding Remarks 168
8
Historical Demography of Hasidism: An Outline 177
Marcin Wodziński
Traditional Resolutions 178
New Take 180
What is Next? 184
Conclusions 184
9
Global Religious Diversity 187
Brian J. Grim
Levels of Religious Diversity 189
Regions 192
Diversity vs. Pluralism 197
About the Index 197
10Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists in the Context of Religious
Diversity, 1910–2010 200
Todd M. Johnson
Religious Diversity Index 201
Religious Diversity by Religion 204
Conclusion 210
Part 4
Data Sources
11
Data Sources 215
Juan Carlos Esparza Ochoa and María Concepción Servín Nieto
General Sources 215
Data Archives 217
Sources by Country 217
Appendices
Glossary 227
World Religions by Country 241
Index 270
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chapter 10
Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists in the Context
of Religious Diversity, 1910–2010
Todd M. Johnson
Over the past hundred years the religious landscape around the world has changed dramatically. Throughout the twentieth century there was an exodus of Europeans from
Christian churches, but since 1970 religious adherence is on the rise globally, largely due
to the collapse of Communism and to the recent growth of nearly all religions in China
(Johnson and Grim 2013).1 Additionally, primarily because of migration, today people
from a variety of religious (and non-religious) backgrounds are increasingly living in
close proximity.
This changing global religious landscape reflects changes in religious diversity by
country. Religious diversity can be measured for any population grouping (Johnson and
Grim 2013),2 but here it is expressed primarily in national terms. ‘Religious diversity’ is
present at two levels: intra-religious and inter-religious. Intra-religious diversity encompasses the diversity found within a given world religion (for example, traditions such as
Roman Catholicism, Orthodoxy, and Protestantism within Christianity), whereas interreligious diversity describes the degree of over-all diversity of world religions (Islam,
Hinduism, Judaism, and so on) in a given population or geographical area. This chapter
focuses primarily on levels of inter-religious diversity (Johnson and Ross 2009).
Religious diversity, normally measured for a whole country’s population, can also be
examined in the context of a particular religion. Most people have experienced an
increase in the religious diversity of their home countries, yet people of the same religious background can live in countries with widely differing religious diversity. Thus,
each individual religion has a different degree of regional or global diversity based on
where its adherents live (measured by country). Changes over time within a single religion and differences between religions can then be observed.
Individual secularization, which involves personal conversion out of a religion, is one
significant way by which a population becomes more diverse (since both agnosticism
and atheism are considered ‘religious’ categories). Another way is conversion from one
religion to another. In Africa during the twentieth century, for example, this typically
involved conversion from tribal religions to either Christianity or Islam. A third way is
the migration of religionists from one location to another. By virtue of these three
1 Globally, the percentage of atheists and agnostics has declined since the collapse of Communism in the
former Soviet Union.
2 Parts of this article were adapted from Johnson and Grim’s chapter on measuring religious diversity.
© koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2015 | doi 10.1163/9789004297395_011
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RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910–2010
201
d­ynamics—births/deaths; conversion in/conversion out; immigration/emigration—
most of the countries of the world are becoming more diverse in their religious makeup.
It is important to note that, within a particular country, inter-religious diversity can
vary greatly from one locale to another, because religious adherents often cluster in local
communities. Such is often the case for countries receiving significant numbers of immigrants or refugees, many of whom settle in major metropolitan areas (Johnson and Ross
2009). Nonetheless, for the purposes of this study national levels of religious diversity
will be examined.
Religious Diversity Index
The Religious Diversity Index (rdi), based upon the Herfindahl Index, describes the
inter-religious diversity of a particular country’s or region’s population using a scale from
0.00 (no diversity) to 1.00 (most diverse) (Laine 1995; Barro and McCleary 2006; McBride
2008; Johnson and Ross 2009; Grim and Finke 2007).3 The Herfindahl Index (also called
the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, hhi), which measures the concentration of competitors within a market or industry, is calculated as the sum of the squares of the market
share of each competitor.4 For example, the maximum hhi score (1002, or 10,000) occurs
when a country has a single religious group. To translate this into a diversity measure, its
inverse (HHImax − HHI) is used; if only one religious group is present, HHImax − HHI = 10,000 − 10,000 = 0, indicating no religious diversity. For a country in which four religious groups are present with shares of 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10%, the hhi is 3,000 (1,600 + 900 + 400 + 100 = 3,000), and its inverse is 10,000 − 3,000 = 7,000. In a country with eight
religious groups of 12.5% each, the inverse hhi represents high religious diversity
(12.52 × 8 = 1,250; inverse = 8,750). For ease of comparison with other indexes, these figures
are converted into a scale ranging from 0.00 (no diversity) to 1.00 (greatest possible diversity), resulting in the Religious Diversity Index (rdi).
3 The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (hhi), sometimes called the Simpsons Ecological Diversity Index, is
named for economists Orris C. Herfindahl and Albert O. Hirschman, who were the first to use it to measure industry concentration (that is, the extent to which a small number of companies account for the
majority of a given market).
4 That is, HHI = s12 + s22 + … + sN2, where s1, s2, … sN represent the percentage shares of each competitor and
N is the total number of competitors. The rdi is calculated as 1 − [(ρ − 1/N) / (1 − 1/N)], where ρ = [(r1 /100)2 + (r2/100)2 + … + (rN/100)2] and r1, r2 , … rN represent the percentages of a country’s total population that
profess adherence to each of N different religions (in this analysis, N = 18); each ri value is divided by 100 to
change it from a percentage to a fraction. Thus, when a population exhibits the maximum possible religious diversity (each religion claims an equal percentage of adherents), then ri = 100/N for each religion,
ρ = 1/N and rdi = 1. Conversely, if there is no religious diversity (that is, 100% of a country’s population
adheres to a single religion), then r1 = 100, all other ri values = 0, ρ = 1, and rdi = 0.
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Johnson
Calculating measurements on both the country and world regional levels5 provides a
‘local’ perspective of diversity (country-level) as well as a cross-national view of diversity
(world regional-level). Table 10.1 reports on diversity at the regional level, showing that
between 1910 and 2010, all but five regions in the world experienced increases in aggregate rdi levels.6 The greatest regional increases, primarily due to migration, were found
in Western Europe (+0.47), Australia/New Zealand (+0.45), Eastern Asia, (+0.42), Northern
Europe (+0.38), and Northern America (+0.31). In each of these cases, the regional changes
are due to changes measured at the national level.
Despite significant changes in religious affiliation since 1910, Asia has remained the
most religiously diverse continent in the world (rdi = 0.53), with Eastern Asia the most
diverse region (rdi = 0.79). In 1910 more than 50% of Asia’s population was Chinese folkreligionist or Buddhist; today, these adherents together total only 22% (Johnson and
Grim 2014). Ethnoreligionists declined from 5.6% of the population in 1910 to 3.7% in
2010. These declines were the result of gains by Muslims (from 16.6% to 26.0%) and
Christians (2.4% to 8.5%). However, greater proportional gains were made by agnostics
(0.0% to 11.8%) and atheists (0.0% to 2.8%), especially in China (Johnson and Grim 2014).
These religious changes in Asia are not entirely surprising, considering the inherently
pluralistic nature of Asian culture (Phan 2004). It is also common for Asians to cross
national boundaries in search of employment, such as the large Indian and Filipino
migrant worker communities in various Persian Gulf countries. The World Bank estimates that three million Indonesian women work abroad, primarily in Malaysia and
Saudi Arabia, and mostly in domestic work (Varia 2004). Nonetheless, increases in religious diversity are particularly apparent in the global North (e.g., Western Europe, with a
change of +0.47 from 1910 to 2010), where secularization and immigration continue to
diversify the religious landscape.
The rdi changes over time for different reasons. It is important to have the relevant
data on religions by country to understand the context of the rdi. Table 10.2 reports that
religious diversity in the ten largest countries shows changes in more than one direction,
or even reports no change where there has been significant change.
Countries like China and Japan have become more diverse over time as a majority
religion (Chinese folk-religion and Buddhism, respectively), decrease over time.
Similarly, in India, Hinduism has lost some of its market share since 1910, thus increasing
the country’s diversity. The United States has also experienced a parallel trend in relation to Christianity (Brazil also, but less so). An opposite trends is found in Indonesia,
where the largest tradition in 1910 was ethnoreligionists (tribal) at 45% but in 2010 was
5 At the regional and global levels, rdis are calculated using the formula (RDI1 × f1) + (RDI s × fs) + … + (RDI N × fN), where RDI1, RDI2, … RDI N represent the RDIs of each individual country; f1, f2, … fN represent
each country’s fractional share of the regional or global population; and N is the total number of countries
in the region or the world.
6 The five regions not experiencing an increase in religious diversity from 1910–2010 were Southern Africa
(−0.17), Micronesia (−0.16), Western Asia (−0.13), Northern Africa (−0.12), and South-eastern Asia (−0.09).
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RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910–2010
Table 10.1 Religious Diversity Index (rdi), 1910 and 2010, by un region, continent, and globe
Continent/region
Population
1910
rdi Majority
1910 adherents 1910
Africa
124,541,000 0.28 Ethnoreligionists
Eastern Africa
33,012,000 0.31 Ethnoreligionists
Middle Africa
19,445,000 0.09 Ethnoreligionists
Northern Africa
31,968,000 0.24 Muslims
Southern Africa
6,819,000 0.50 Ethnoreligionists
Western Africa
33,296,000 0.37 Ethnoreligionists
Asia
1,026,693,000 0.37 Chinese folk
Central Asia
7,550,000 0.07 Muslims
Eastern Asia
554,135,000 0.37 Chinese folk
South Asia
338,168,000 0.36 Hindus
South-eastern
93,859,000 0.50 Buddhists
Asia
Western Asia
32,982,000 0.26 Muslims
Europe
427,044,000 0.10 Christians
Eastern Europe
178,184,000 0.20 Christians
Northern Europe
61,473,000 0.04 Christians
Southern Europe
76,828,000 0.04 Christians
Western Europe
110,558,000 0.03 Christians
Latin America
78,254,000 0.09 Christians
Caribbean
8,172,000 0.04 Christians
Central America
20,806,000 0.02 Christians
South America
49,276,000 0.12 Christians
Northern America
94,689,000 0.07 Christians
Oceania
7,192,000 0.08 Christians
Australia/nz
5,375,000 0.06 Christians
Melanesia
1,596,000 0.13 Ethnoreligionists
Micronesia
89,400 0.30 Christians
Polynesia
131,000 0.01 Christians
Global total
1,758,412,000 0.27 Christians
Population
2010
rdi Majority
2010 adherents
2010
1,031,084,000
342,595,000
124,978,000
199,620,000
58,803,000
305,088,000
4,165,440,000
61,694,000
1,593,571,000
1,681,407,000
597,097,000
0.38
0.45
0.26
0.12
0.33
0.53
0.53
0.23
0.79
0.38
0.41
Christians
Christians
Christians
Muslims
Christians
Muslims
Muslims
Muslims
Agnostics
Hindus
Muslims
231,671,000
740,308,000
296,183,000
98,795,000
154,712,000
190,618,000
596,191,000
41,625,000
160,546,000
394,021,000
346,501,000
36,659,000
26,773,000
8,729,000
498,000
660,000
6,916,183,000
0.13
0.36
0.29
0.42
0.28
0.50
0.15
0.27
0.08
0.16
0.38
0.41
0.51
0.15
0.14
0.08
0.45
Muslims
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Christians
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston:
Brill, accessed September 2014).
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Johnson
Table 10.2 Ten most populous countries by rdi and religion, 1910 & 2010
Country
rdi 1910
Major religions
rdi 2010
Major religions
China
India
United States
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Russia
Japan
0.37
0.36
0.07
0.66
0.08
0.32
0.43
0.49
0.31
0.36
F80%, B13%, M5%
H80%, M14%, T3%
C96%, J2%, Q1%
T45%, M40%, N10%
C96%, T3%, U1%
M83%, H14%, K3%
T73%, M26%, C1%
M66%, H32%, T1%
C83%, M9%, J6%
B80%, S15%, N4%
0.81
0.47
0.37
0.38
0.18
0.08
0.60
0.21
0.35
0.64
Q33%, F30%, B15%
H73%, M14%, C5%
C80%, Q14%, J2%
M79%, C12%, T2%
C91%, U5%, Q2%
M96%, C2%, H1%
C46%, M46%, T8%,
M89%, H9%, B1%
C81%, M11%, Q6%
B56%, N26%, Q10%
B = Buddhists; C = Christians; F = Chinese folk-religionists; H = Hindus; J = Jews; K = Sikhs; M = Muslims;
N = New religionists; Q = Agnostics; S = Shintoists; T = Tribals; U = Spiritists
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston:
Brill, accessed September 2014.
Muslims at 79%. Indonesia’s rdi has fallen considerably. Pakistan has also become less
diverse, largely because of partition in 1948 when large numbers of Hindus moved to
India. The limitations of this method can especially be observed in the case of Russia,
where the 100-year trend shows little change. However, Russia experienced one of the
most tumultuous religious upheavals of any country in the 20th century, with the rise of
state-imposed atheism that drove Orthodox Christianity underground, only for it to be
revived post-1991.
Religious Diversity by Religion
Having determined the religious diversity of each country in 1910 and 2010, it is now possible to apply these findings to each religion. This creates figures that can be compared in
two ways: (1) by religion over time (e.g., Christians in 1910 and 2010); and (2) between
religions in a single year (e.g., Muslims vs. non-religionists in 2010). For the purposes of
this study, adherents of three of the world’s largest ‘religions’—Christians, Muslims, and
non-religionists (including both agnostics and atheists)—are examined. Together these
represented 68% of the world’s population in 2010.
Table 10.3 reports the religious diversity (calculated by country) for the 22 United
Nations regions, 6 continental areas, and entire globe for both 1910 and 2010. Additional
columns report on the religious diversity experienced by adherents of each of three
‘­religions’—first Christians, second Muslims, and finally non-religionists.
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RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910–2010
Table 10.3 Christians, Muslims, and non-religionists in the context of religious diversity, 1910–2010
Country
Country
Christians
Muslims
Non-religionists
rdi 1910 rdi 2010 rdi* 1910 rdi 2010 rdi 1910 rdi 2010 rdi 1910 rdi 2010
Africa
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
Asia
Central Asia
Eastern Asia
South Asia
South-eastern Asia
Western Asia
Europe
Eastern Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Latin America
Caribbean
Central America
South America
Northern America
Oceania
Australia/nz
Melanesia
Micronesia
Polynesia
Globe
0.28
0.31
0.09
0.24
0.50
0.37
0.37
0.07
0.37
0.36
0.50
0.26
0.10
0.20
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.09
0.04
0.02
0.12
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.13
0.30
0.01
0.27
0.38
0.45
0.26
0.12
0.33
0.53
0.53
0.23
0.79
0.38
0.41
0.13
0.36
0.29
0.42
0.28
0.50
0.15
0.27
0.08
0.16
0.38
0.41
0.51
0.15
0.14
0.08
0.45
0.49
0.61
0.06
0.30
0.53
0.28
0.32
0.10
0.36
0.37
0.31
0.29
0.09
0.19
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.08
0.04
0.02
0.12
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.27
0.24
0.01
0.10
0.41
0.43
0.21
0.20
0.33
0.60
0.51
0.44
0.81
0.44
0.28
0.27
0.34
0.28
0.41
0.27
0.50
0.14
0.23
0.08
0.16
0.38
0.38
0.51
0.14
0.13
0.08
0.34
0.30
0.43
0.40
0.24
0.54
0.41
0.35
0.07
0.37
0.33
0.64
0.25
0.32
0.31
0.03
0.38
0.01
0.39
0.34
0.05
0.42
0.07
0.11
0.07
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.34
0.31
0.46
0.54
0.12
0.34
0.46
0.24
0.21
0.81
0.22
0.40
0.10
0.40
0.34
0.45
0.36
0.51
0.24
0.50
0.10
0.23
0.39
0.50
0.50
0.49
0.23
0.04
0.27
0.32
0.49
0.00
0.23
0.54
0.00
0.33
0.07
0.37
0.36
0.26
0.19
0.07
0.18
0.05
0.06
0.03
0.45
0.02
0.02
0.46
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.34
0.46
0.25
0.13
0.33
0.58
0.78
0.26
0.80
0.46
0.64
0.20
0.43
0.36
0.46
0.30
0.51
0.22
0.50
0.09
0.20
0.39
0.51
0.51
0.21
0.15
0.11
0.69
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston:
Brill, accessed September 2014).
* The religion-specific Religious Diversity Index, denoted here with lower-case letters (rdi), is calculated by
weighting the rdi for each country by that country’s share of all adherents of the religion of interest in its
region. That is, rdiR = (RDI1 × aR1) + (RDI s × aR2) + … + (RDI N × aRN), where rdiR represents the religionspecific rdi for adherents of religion R (Christians, Muslims, non-religionists, etc.); RDI1, RDI2, …RDI N
represent the RDIs of each individual country; aR1, aR2, …aRN represent each country’s fractional share of the
regional or global population of religionists R; and N is the total number of countries in the region or the
world.
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Johnson
Christians
Globally, Christians live in contexts of greater religious diversity in 2010 (rdi = 0.34) than
in 1910 (rdi = 0.10).7 Nonetheless, the recent figure is still lower than the global figure for
the world’s population in 2010 (rdi = 0.45). Christians were concentrated in Europe and
the Americas in 1910 but can now be found in Africa and Asia as well. In 1910, 95% of all
Christians lived in countries that were 80% or more Christian (Johnson and Grim 2014).
In 2010, this had fallen to just over 50%. Figure 10.1 shows that more than 70% of all
Christians in 1910 lived in countries with a Religious Diversity Index (rdi) value of 0.1 or
less.8 This had fallen to less than 20% by 2010, with the value range of 0.30 < rdi ≤ 0.40
having the greatest single proportion of Christians in 2010.
Regional observations include a massive shift in over-all religious diversity in Europe,
Northern America, and Oceania. In each case, Christians lived within very little religious
diversity in 1910 and now live in significantly diverse contexts. At the same time, the situation in Africa and Asia is more complicated. In Africa, the religious diversity for
Christians has increased in some regions and decreased in others. In many countries,
conversions from tribal religion to Christianity over the century have greatly decreased
religious diversity (for example, Angola was 83% ethnoreligionist in 1910 and 93%
Christian in 2010). In Asia, Christians experienced increased diversity in Eastern Asia
(rdi = 0.36 in 1910 to rdi = 0.81 in 2010) but decreased diversity (rdi = 0.29 in 1910 to rdi = 0.27
in 2010) where Christian populations have been declining through emigration.
Muslims
Unlike Christians, Muslims (as a whole) today live in less-religiously-diverse countries
than in 1910. While they lived in countries more diverse (rdi = 0.34) than the global average (rdi = 0.27) in 1910, by 2010 they lived in countries less diverse (rdi = 0.27) than the
global average (rdi = 0.45). Figure 10.2 shows that while less than 20% of all Muslims
lived in countries with rdi values of 0.1 or less in 1910, this had increased to more than
30% by 2010.
Forty percent of all Muslims lived in South and Central Asia in 2010 (Johnson and
Grim 2013:19). South Asia is only slightly more religiously diverse over the century (rdi
increasing from 0.36 in 1910 to 0.38 in 2010) but where Muslims live it has become less
diverse (rdi falling from 0.33 in 1910 to 0.22 in 2010). At the same time, South-eastern Asia,
home to another 14% of the world’s Muslims in 2010, had also become less diverse (rdi for
7 rdi values give an indication of the over-all religious diversity of a population or area of interest. They do
not, however, describe how residents of a country experience that religious diversity (or the lack thereof).
For example, a country with a Christian percentage of 99.5% might have the same rdi (0.01, say) as one
with a Christian percentage of 0.5%. Yet the lack of diversity will look very different depending on
whether one is part of an overwhelming majority or a tiny minority.
8 This low rdi value can result from two different scenarios. For example, both Andorra and Angola had an
rdi of 0.01 in 1910. But whereas Andorra was 99.6% Christian, Angola was only 0.6% Christian (and 99.4%
ethnoreligionist). They both had the same rdi, but present vastly different contexts for Christians.
For use by the Author only | © 2015 Koninklijke Brill NV
RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910–2010
Figure 10.1
207
Christians in the context of religious diversity (0.0–1.0), 1910–2010
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds.
World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill,
accessed September 2014).
Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper end
of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents values falling
in the range 0.0 ≤ rdi i ≤ 0.1; 0.2 represents 0.1 < rdi i ≤ 0.2; …1.0
represents 0.9 < rdi i ≤ 1.0.
Muslims dropping from 0.64 in 1910 to 0.40 in 2010). Part of the explanation of decreasing
religious diversity for Muslims is the decline of non-Muslim minorities in key countries
such as Indonesia (the country with the most Muslims), which was 40% Muslim in 1910
and 79% Muslim in 2010.
Migration patterns of Muslims (e.g., from Africa to Europe) are bringing Muslims into
more religiously diverse regions. All European regions are more diverse in 2010 than in
1910 with the greatest change in Western Europe (rdi = 0.01 in 1910 to rd i = 0.51 in 2010).
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Johnson
Figure 10.2
Muslims in the context of religious diversity (0.0–1.0), 1910–2010
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds. World
Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill, accessed
September 2014).
Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper end
of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents values falling
in the range 0.0 ≤ rdi i ≤ 0.1; 0.2 represents 0.1 < rdi i ≤ 0.2; …1.0
represents 0.9 < rdi i ≤ 1.0.
Non-religionists
Non-religionists (including both agnostics and atheists) have seen the most profound
shift in their religious contexts. In 1910, globally, they lived in countries rdi = 0.13
(rdi = 0.27 for world population) where in 2010 this had risen to rdi = 0.69 (more than the
rdi = 0.45 average), the highest of any ‘religious’ category. The explanation for this shift
is fairly simple. In 1910, most non-religious people lived as small minorities in majority
Christian countries (Europe and Northern America) whereas in 2010 the largest contingent lived in China, the world’s most religiously diverse country. This shift is apparent in
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RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY, 1910–2010
Figure 10.3
209
Non-religionists in the context of religious diversity (0.0–1.0),
1910–2010
Source: Todd M. Johnson and Brian J. Grim, eds.
World Religion Database (Leiden/Boston: Brill,
accessed September 2014).
Note: The labels on the graph above represent the upper
end of the range of rdi values. That is, 0.1 represents
values falling in the range 0.0 ≤ rdi i ≤ 0.1; 0.2 represents
0.1 < rdi i ≤ 0.2; …1.0 represents 0.9 < rdi i ≤ 1.0.
Figure 10.3 below, where 80% of all non-religionists lived in countries rdi ≤ 0.10 in 1910
but over 60% in 2010 live in countries where the rdi was greater than 0.80.
At the same time, there have been significant regional trends. While in most regions
the non-religionists mirror changes in the religious diversity experienced by the general
population, in some regions they now live in less religiously diverse countries than in 1910.
For example, in South America, they went from rdi = 0.46 in 1910 to rdi = 0.20 in 2010. The
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210
Johnson
explanation in this case is that most lived in Uruguay in 1910, a religiously diverse country,
but now appear in religiously less diverse (i.e., vast Christian majority) countries. In other
regions, their fortune has gone in the opposite direction. In South-eastern Asia, while the
general population has experienced decreasing religious diversity (rdi = 0.50 to 0.41),
non-religionists have experienced increasing religious diversity (rdi = 0.26 to 0.64).
Comparing Christians, Muslims, and Non-religionists
In light of the trends found in each of these religions, the three can also be compared
to each other. The overall trend is quite clear. Muslims today are living in less religious
diversity than in 1910 (rdi = 0.34 dropping to 0.27) while Christians are living in more
religious diversity (rdi = 0.10 rising to 0.34). But non-religionists clearly live in the most
religiously diverse contexts (rdi = 0.13 rising to 0.69). One can also identify key areas
of religious diversity. The most religiously diverse region for all three is Eastern Asia
(not surprisingly, since this has the highest rdi). But there are important variations
for each of the religions by region. For example, Christians in Africa live in more diversity (rdi = 0.41) than either Muslims (rdi = 0.31) or non-religionists (rdi = 0.34). But in
Europe, Christians live in the least diverse situations (rdi = 0.34) with Muslims
(rdi = 0.40) and non-religionists (rdi = 0.43) in more religiously diverse contexts. In
Latin America, Muslims live in more religious diversity (rdi = 0.24) than non-religionists
(rdi = 0.22) or Christians (rdi = 0.14). In South-eastern Asia, while religious diversity for
the general population is rdi = 0.41, Christians live in less diversity (rdi = 0.28).
Muslims, the majority religion, live in rdi = 0.40, and non-religionists live in the most
diversity (rdi = 0.64).
Conclusion
The measurement of religious diversity for whole populations or for individual religions
show much variation over time, between countries and regions, and between religions.
While people around the world clearly live in more religiously diverse contexts today
than they did 100 years ago, not everyone experiences the same degree of diversity. What
impact might increasing religious diversity have on human relations? Studies have shown
that people living in more religious or ethnic diversity are more likely to form friendships
across religious and ethnic lines (Vanhoutte and Hooghe 2012). Consequently, increasing
religious diversity affords religionists and non-religionists the opportunity for forging
friendships. Tracing these trends provides a context for further studies of the effect of
more (or less) religious diversity on religious (and non-religious) communities.
Accordingly, the complex trends outlined above can be integrated into a growing understanding of the world’s religious and non-religious populations.
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