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Oikos 125: 556–565, 2016 doi: 10.1111/oik.02486 © 2015 The Authors. Oikos © 2015 Nordic Society Oikos Subject Editor: Matthew Bracken. Editor-in-Chief: Dries Bonte. Accepted 5 August 2015 Niche-dependent trophic position distributions among primary, secondary and tertiary consumers Ryan J. Woodland, Fiona Y. Warry, Victor Evrard, Rohan H. Clarke, Paul Reich and Perran L. M. Cook R. J. Woodland ([email protected]), F. Y. Warry, V. Evrard and P.L.M. Cook, Water Studies Centre, School of Chemistry, Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia. Present address for RJW: Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Univ. of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, MD 20688, USA. – R. H. Clarke, School of Biological Sciences, Monash Univ., Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia. – FYW and P. Reich, Arthur Rylah Inst. for Environmental Research, Dept of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, VIC 3084, Australia. Many consumers display flexible feeding strategies that vary among individuals or populations, through life-history, or spatiotemporally. Despite the recognized influence of flexible feeding on the structure and dynamics of food webs, the consequences of these feeding strategies on the actual shape and characteristics of trophic position distributions have received less attention. We proposed and tested several a priori hypotheses to predict the likely effect of niche-dependent (e.g. herbivore, secondary consumer) foraging on the shape and statistical properties of consumer trophic position distributions using natural abundance stable isotope data from a diverse dataset of consumers. We found evidence that the structural characteristics of consumer trophic position distributions varied as a function of trophic niche. Herbivores and tertiary consumers tended to be ‘packed’ closely near their mean trophic position, with few individuals realizing trophic positions markedly higher or lower than the mean. Conversely, secondary consumers often displayed broad trophic position distributions with many individuals dispersed away from the center of the distribution. We examined the effect of applying constant versus dynamic isotope trophic fractionation models and found that both models yielded similar although not identical results. Our findings suggest that trophic level omnivory supports a larger fraction of consumer diet at intermediate trophic positions than at either the lowest or the highest positions in aquatic food webs. These results suggest that vertical trophic niche declines among higher order consumers despite general evidence that the range of potential foraging options (i.e. horizontal trophic niche) tends to increase at higher trophic positions. Although further work is needed to test the generality of these patterns in other ecosystems, proactively examining trophic position distributions and reporting appropriate measures of central tendency (e.g. arithmetic versus geometric means) will increase the accuracy of individual trophic studies as well as the applicability of results for meta-analytical food web models. There is a strong focus in ecology on the theoretical implications and empirical evidence for inter- and intra-species trophic diversity as a structuring component of food webs (Fagan 1997, Bolnick et al. 2003, Arim and Marquet 2004, Schellekens and van Kooten 2012). For example, the prevalence and consequences of omnivory (defined as foraging across trophic levels) has received particular attention due to its apparent ubiquity in natural ecosystems (Arim and Marquet 2004, Thompson et al. 2007) and its potential stabilizing influence on food web dynamics (Polis and Strong 1996, McCann and Hastings 1997, Holyoak and Sachdev 1998, but see Williams and Martinez 2004). Other flexible foraging strategies such as intraguild predation, cannibalism, life-history omnivory, and incidental consumption (among others) can all alter the realized trophic positions of individuals and, collectively, the trophic position distributions of populations of consumers (Pimm and Rice 1987, Polis et al. 1989, Polis 1994). 556 One consequence of flexible foraging is that populations of consumers display a distribution of trophic positions rather than a single fractional value (Pauly et al. 1998). The shape of the distribution of trophic positions occupied by a species or population (hereafter, simply ‘consumer’) is a critical consideration of trophic niche that is typically overlooked or assumed. The standard approach for calculating an arithmetic mean and standard deviation of trophic position implicitly assumes samples are drawn from a population with an underlying normal distribution. This assumption can make data analysis more tractable; however, constraints arising from factors such as incidental carnivory, size-based foraging, and trophic energy attenuation could result in non-normal trophic position distributions in natural ecosystems. Intraspecific variation in trophic position has been quantified using measures of variance (Vander Zanden et al. 2000, Bearhop et al. 2004, Gibb and Cunningham 2013) and coefficients of variation (Edwards et al. 2013), but the Probability density (a) Decreasing Right skew Left skew Skewness Variance Variance Skewness (b) Increasing Decreasing Increasing (c) Range contribution of directional skewness and the cumulative effects of trophic variability on consumer trophic position distributions has received much less attention. To date, there is very little information available on the likely distribution of individual trophic positions within a consumer population and how the specific distribution may be influenced by the consumer’s trophic position. One of the most widely applied analytical techniques for estimating the trophic position of a consumer involves analyzing and comparing the ratio of heavy (15N) to light (14N) nitrogen stable isotope composition of a consumer’s tissues (i.e. d15N: Cabana and Rasmussen 1996, Post 2002b, Layman et al. 2012). Stable isotope estimates of trophic position require specification of an isotopic fractionation value (Δd15N d15Nconsumer d15Nresource; hereafter, ‘Δ’), representing the serial enrichment of d15N across trophic transfers arising from the interaction of assimilatory, excretory and metabolic processes (Hobson et al. 1993, McCutchan et al. 2003). In the absence of species-specific estimates of Δ, constant rates of fractionation (ΔCon) ranging from 2.5‰ to 3.4‰ per trophic transfer are conventionally assumed (Minagawa and Wada 1984, Vander Zanden and Rasmussen 2001, Vanderklift and Ponsard 2003). This assumption has been challenged with evidence that dynamic fractionation rates (ΔDyn) may be more applicable in certain circumstances (Robbins et al. 2010, Hussey et al. 2014) and this has implications for estimates of community-level trophic position variability and multi-ecosystem comparative analyses. For example: in a given dataset, estimates of intraspecific variability in trophic position will increase under the ΔDyn model relative to estimates calculated assuming ΔCon when ΔDyn ΔCon. In this study, we use stable isotope data to examine the shape of trophic position (hereafter, TP) distributions and assess the relationship between trophic niche and the TP distribution of consumers in estuarine food webs. Our hypotheses are based on the expectation that the trophic niche of a consumer will influence its TP distribution in a nonlinear fashion (Fig. 1). We reason that the TP distribution of primary consumers will be bounded at the lower end by the inability to forage at TP 2.0 although individuals are capable of realizing higher TPs through the incidental consumption of animal material (e.g. indiscriminant grazing of mixed assemblage epibionts), potentially leading to positively skewed distributions (Fig. 1b). These characteristics would lead to a reduction in TP variability and a contraction of individuals toward the center of the TP distribution and away from the tails (i.e. reduced variance and range; Fig. 1b–c). Classic omnivores (those that consume plant and animal matter) and intermediate consumers have a much broader potential diet (greater variance) and these taxa could be expected to display less skewed TP distributions characterized by dispersion of individuals away from the center of the distribution (i.e. increased range). Finally, the TP of tertiary consumers is bounded at the upper end by factors such as energy attenuation between trophic transfers and predator–prey size ratio constraints (Scharf et al. 2000, Jennings et al. 2002, Barnes et al. 2010). These processes could lead to a reduction in variance and contraction of the distribution towards the center and away from the tails (reduced variance and range; Fig. 1b–c), characterized by a Primary consumer Intermediate consumer Tertiary consumer Trophic position Figure 1. Conceptual diagram outlining hypothesized relationships between consumer trophic position and: (a) shape and dispersion characteristics of trophic position distributions relative to probability densities; (b) skewness (primary y-axis) and variance (secondary y-axis); and, (c) range of trophic position distributions. In (b), dotted line 0. scattering of individuals realizing lower TPs (i.e. negatively skewed distributions; Fig. 1b). These ideas will not apply to every consumer, particularly morphologically adapted trophic specialists; however, these broad patterns are valid a priori expectations for aquatic estuarine consumers. Based on these expectations, we tested the following hypotheses: 1) TP distributions of primary consumers and tertiary predators will be restricted compared to those of intermediate consumers; 2) TP distributions of primary consumers and tertiary predators will be best described by flexible, nonnormal distributions; whereas, TP distributions of intermediate consumers will follow a normal distribution; and, 3) the application of a ΔDyn model in which fractionation varies inversely with consumer TP will lead to narrower TP distributions among primary consumers and broader TP distributions among tertiary consumers, relative to distributions modeled under ΔCon conditions. 557 Material and methods In this study, carbon (d13C) and nitrogen (d15N) stable isotope data were used as proxy indicators of trophic niche and TP. Studies typically use d13C to elucidate primary food sources at the base of food webs; whereas, d15N is often used to estimate TP of individual consumers. Consumer d13C and d15N data were collated from several different surveys of estuarine fauna and included a wide diversity of invertebrate and vertebrate consumers (Supplementary material Appendix 1 Table A1). Estuaries are dynamic ecosystems and consumer food webs are often supported by many autochthonous and allochthonous sources of nutrition. These conditions can render consumer isotope data more variable than similar data collected in less variable ecosystems. The large sample size of our dataset and our standardization and statistical approach should compensate for the presence of system-specific idiosyncrasies in consumer–resource stable isotope relationships; however, this does remain a source of potential error in our analysis. To avoid potential errors arising from differences in tissue turnover rates, we excluded fast turnover tissue types (i.e. liver, blood plasma) and focused on relatively slow (i.e. white muscle, red blood cells, whole body) turnover tissues. The final combined dataset consisted of n 4341 invertebrate and vertebrate specimens distributed amongst 65 unique taxonomic groups (57 identified to species level; Supplementary material Appendix 1 Table A2). Of the 65 taxa identified, a subset of 47 taxa was further subdivided into age-0 and age-1 age-classes based on size-at-age information from the literature as well as evidence of modal length progression from the survey datasets. Invertebrates, birds and those fish for which individual length data were not available were aggregated at the species level. This resulted in a total of 90 groups classified at the species, species-age, or family level (Supplementary material Appendix 1 Table A2). Each taxon in the consumer dataset was assigned a trophic position from the literature (TPLit) with values that ranged from 2.0 (primary consumer) to 4.5 (tertiary consumer) at 0.1 TP increments. Assigned TPLit values were based on diet studies from the primary literature and information summarized in an online ecological database (< www. fishbase.org/ >). For well-studied fish taxa (e.g. Acanthopagrus butcheri), multiple estimates of TPLit were often available. For these taxa, TPLit was calculated as the mean of the available estimates. Sufficient information did not exist to define age-specific TPLit values for age-0 individuals; however, ontogenetic increases in TP associated with increasing body size are a well-established facet of trophic ecology for many fish species (Werner and Gilliam 1984, Jennings et al. 2002). In the absence of empirical estimates, age-0 individuals of the four largest species were assigned TPLit values one half trophic level below the age-1 age-class (Supplementary material Appendix 1 Table A2). Conspecifics of all other species were assigned identical TPLit values regardless of assigned age-class. Preparation of stable isotope data Consumer d13C values were mathematically corrected for lipid content based on sample C:N ratios (Post et al. 2007). 558 All d15N values were centered by subtracting location-specific means from each within-group observation after correcting (if necessary) for the potential influence of resource (d13C) dependent patterns in observed d15N values (Supplementary material Appendix 1). Briefly, this involved regressing observed d15N values against d13C for each species in each estuary. If there was a significant relationship (i.e. slope ≠ 0), residuals from the d15N–d13C regression were used in subsequent analyses, otherwise the individual d15N values of the species were subtracted from the mean d15N for that species in each estuary. This processes yields a set of residuals for each species distributed around the species mean for each estuary. Conspecifics from multiple sites and surveys could then be combined because all observations had been converted to residuals with m 0. Centered d15N residuals were then converted to TP ‘equivalents’ using two methods. The first method assumed a ΔCon 3.4‰ across trophic transfers (Vander Zanden and Rasmussen 2001, Post 2002b); d15N residuals were divided by this constant fractionation value. This scaled the d15N residuals to be equivalent to TP residuals distributed around the mean TP. The second method assumes Δ is dynamic and inversely related to the d15N value of a consumer’s food source. We used an empirical model presented in Hussey et al. (2014) to model Δ as a function of consumer d15N: ΔDyn –0.27 d15NConsumer 5.92‰. These slope and intercept values correspond to the medians of the posterior probability distributions for each parameter derived from a meta-analysis (Hussey et al. 2014). Several ecosystems with high 15N concentrations (i.e. baseline primary consumer d15N 11.8–27.6) required alternative slope ( –0.14) or intercept values ( 7.33 or 10.00‰) (Supplementary material Appendix 1). Similar to the ΔCon method, d15N residuals were divided by the ΔDyn estimate to convert isotope residuals to TP residuals. Trophic position distributions calculated using ΔCon and ΔDyn were analyzed separately and the results used to investigate the extent to which methodological differences in the treatment of trophic fractionation influenced the apparent TP distribution of consumers. Consumer-level distribution characteristics Skewness, variance and range of consumer TP distributions were identified as potentially informative variables. Positive skew is indicative of an asymmetrically righttailed distribution (skewness 0); whereas, negative skew is associated with an asymmetrically left-tailed distribution (skewness 0). Skewness is therefore useful for examining the extent and directionality of displacement within the TP distribution of a consumer. Distribution variance and range ( maximum – minimum observed values) are common descriptors of distributions and readers can easily consult any standard statistical text for more information on these metrics. Unbiased estimators of population skewness (G1) and variance (s; sample variance) were calculated for the aggregated TP distribution data for each consumer and age-class (where available). We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate the influence of consumer trophic position (TPLit) on the skewness, variance and range of TP distributions. Each model included an intercept (b0), two parametric linear terms (bTP TPLit, bN Count) and a non-parametric smoothing spline (sTP TPLit). Estuary was included as a parametric class variable in each model to prevent among-estuary differences in isotopic variability from influencing our interpretations of consumer-level TP distributions. This model structure allowed us to examine the data for a curvilinear relationship between the response variables and TPLit while accounting for the possibility of a linear trend. We included the total number of observations for each consumer (count) as a covariate to correct for any bias arising from unequal sample sizes. All response variables were ln-transformed (following the addition of a constant to remove negative values) after preliminary GAM results indicated that residuals were Poisson distributed. The models were also run on a reduced dataset (fish taxa only) to verify that model results were not dependent on taxon-specific values in high leverage positions (e.g. low and high TPs). Trophic position distributions Consumer TPLit values were rounded to the nearest 0.5 TP increment (i.e. the nearest half trophic level) to examine the characteristics of TP distributions at the assemblage-level. Consumer TP data were aggregated into six TP classes, ranging from primary consumers (TP 2.0) to tertiary consumers (TP 4.5) by 0.5 TP increments. Three theoretical probability distributions – lognormal, normal, and Gompertz – were fitted to TP distributions within each trophic class and Akaike’s information criterion, corrected for small sample size (AICc; Burnham and Anderson 2002), was used as the model selection criterion. These three distributions were specifically selected because they are often applied in ecological analyses to describe distributions in nature. The lognormal distribution has previously been applied in food web studies to describe the likely TP distribution of consumers (Gascuel et al. 2011); whereas, TP distributions are typically treated as normal by default when analyzing stable isotope or stomach contents data. We included the Gompertz distribution as a flexible alternative model capable of describing left-skewed data. Differences in model AICc values (ΔAICc) and relative model weights (wAICc) were used to compare and assess model performance (Symonds and Moussalli 2011). Initial model fitting indicated that there were very few differences in model selection results when taxa were analyzed separately for each tissue-type – only four of ten potential paired model selection criterion values suggested different outcomes for different tissue types from the same TP class. Where differences occurred, |ΔAICc| values from model comparisons were equivocal for all tissue-types (i.e. |ΔAICc| 0.79), indicating that tissue-specific differences did not influence model selection results. Similarly, applying the model fitting analysis to individual consumers or ageclasses yielded model selection criterion patterns that were remarkably similar to results based on analysis of TP classes of aggregated taxa (Supplementary material Appendix 2 Table A4, Fig. A1). For this reason, we focus on the model fitting results for all taxa aggregated into TP classes to maintain the broadest taxonomic coverage possible in our analysis and discussion. Results from consumer-specific model fitting are used to provide examples of the dominant patterns. Data accessibility Species identifications, stable isotope data and site identifiers can be found in the Supplementary material. Results Taxonomic distribution characteristics and generalized additive modeling There was a positive relationship between skewness, variance and range estimates calculated under the constant and the dynamic Δ models; however, there was considerable variability between estimates (Supplementary material Appendix 3 Table A1, Fig. A2). On average, ΔDyn estimates yielded lower estimates of skewness, variance and range at a given TP than the ΔCon estimates. Based on the ΔCon model, skewness estimates ranged from –3.0 (Contusus richei [age-0]) to 3.9 (Macquaria colonorum [age-1]); whereas, ΔDyn skewness estimates ranged from –3.0 (C. richei [age-0]) to 2.0 (Galaxias truttaceus). Minimum variance estimates 0 were estimated for several species under both ΔCon and ΔDyn conditions, but maximum observed values differed markedly with the ΔCon maximum 1.53 (Galaxias maculatus [age-1]) and the ΔDyn maximum 0.76 (Tetractenos glaber [age-1]). Minimum and maximum TP range patterns were similar to variance, minimum range values 0 were shared by several species under both ΔCon and ΔDyn conditions, but maximum TP range was higher under the ΔCon ( 3.1, Galaxias maculatus [age-1]) than the ΔDyn model ( 2.5, Aldrichetta forsteri [age-1]). There was no evidence of significant linear or nonlinear terms in the ln(skewness) GAMs (Table 1, Fig. 2a–b); therefore, we focus on results from ln(variance) and the ln(range) GAMs. Under both ΔCon and ΔDyn conditions, ln(variance) increased nonlinearly from primary consumers to omnivorous consumers (TP 2.5) before declining among tertiary consumers (Fig. 2c–d). The sample size covariate parameter in the ΔCon model was also significant, indicating ln(variance) increased slightly with increased sample size. Similar to variance, there was evidence of a nonlinear relationship between ln(range) and TPLit under both constant and dynamic Δ conditions (Table 1, Fig. 2e–f ). For both fractionation models, ln(range) increased from primary consumers to secondary consumers then declined among higher TP consumers. The sample size covariate was significant (and positive) in both ln(range) models, consistent with the fact that total range estimates are biased at smaller sample sizes. The ln(skewness), ln(variance) and ln(range) models were rerun on a subset of data composed solely of fish samples to examine the influence of non-fish taxa (i.e. invertebrates, birds) on the patterns observed between TPLit and the response variables in the full dataset. The GAM analysis of the subset of fish data (n 62 taxa) yielded qualitatively identical results to those obtained using the full dataset. There was no evidence of a linear (parameter |t-statistic| 1.08, p 0.28) or nonlinear (parameter c2-statistic 3.93, p 0.28) response of ln(skewness) to TPLit. The significance of the nonlinear relationships between TPLit and ln(variance) and 559 Table 1. Generalized additive model results relating consumer trophic position distribution skewness, variance and range (Variable) calculated using constant and dynamic Δd15N models (Method). Included are regression parameter estimates (Estimate) and statistics for parametric model components (b0 intercept, bN sample size, bTP literature-based species trophic positions) and analysis of deviance statistics for the nonparametric model component (sTP spline[TP]). Parametric class variable estimates for each estuary not shown. Parametric components Variable Method Skewness constant dynamic Variance constant dynamic Range constant dynamic Parameter* b0 bN bTP, sTP b0 bN bTP, sTP b0 bN bTP b0 bN bTP, sTP b0 bN bTP, sTP b0 bN bTP, sTP Nonparametric component Estimate t p 1.40 (0.09) –0.001 (0.001) 0.02 (0.02) 1.35 (0.11) –0.001 (0.001) 0.03 (0.03) 0.05 (0.02) 0.001 (0.0002) –0.007 (0.005) 0.02 (0.01) 0.0002 (0.0001) 0.001 (0.003) 0.29 (0.08) 0.02 (0.001) –0.03 (0.02) 0.24 (0.07) 0.01 (0.001) –0.02 (0.02) 15.64 –1.14 0.82 12.84 –0.58 1.08 2.42 2.99 –1.34 1.88 1.79 0.27 3.39 13.58 –1.71 3.72 13.64 –1.04 0.0001 0.25 0.41 0.0001 0.56 0.28 0.02 0.003 0.18 0.06 0.07 0.79 0.0008 0.0001 0.09 0.0002 0.0001 0.3 c2 Estimate DF 0.97 3 2.78 0.43 0.97 3 3.93 0.27 0.98 3 12.8 0.005 0.98 3 10.3 0.02 0.99 3 9.3 0.03 0.98 3 13.3 0.004 p * generalized additive model structure: h(x , x ) b b N TP 0 Estuary xEstuary bN xN bTP xTP sTP(xTP). ln(range) were maintained under both Δ models (parameter c2-statistic 9.30, p 0.03). Trophic position distribution modeling Results from the TP model fitting were generally consistent for the constant and the dynamic Δ datasets (Table 2, Fig. 3a). Among the secondary consumers (TP 3.0), the normal distribution consistently outperformed both the lognormal and Gompertz model as evidenced by relative Akaike weight values (wAICc; Burnham and Anderson 2002) approaching 1.0. These patterns are typified by an omnivorous mugilid fish species Aldrichetta forsteri and a carnivorous gobiid fish species Gobiopterus semivestitus which displayed highly dispersed distributions centered on their mean (Fig. 3b). Model fitting results for both species supported selection of a normal distribution regardless of Δ model (wAICc ∼ 1.0). Among secondary consumers with TP class values of 3.5, model fit of the lognormal (wAICc 0.4) and normal (wAICc 0.6) distributions were similar under ΔCon conditions. Alternatively, the normal model showed the best model fit under ΔDyn conditions for consumers occupying the TP 3.5 group. At the taxon-level, age-1 individuals of the sparid Acanthopagrus butcheri occupied a wide range of estimated TP values and showed Δ dependent model fitting results (i.e. ΔCon normal wAICc 0.13; ΔDyn normal wAICc 0.77). For tertiary consumers grouped at TP 4.0 (e.g. Arripis truttaceus; Fig. 3b), the lognormal model provided the best fit (wAICc ∼ 1.0) for the ΔCon results. The relative performance of the normal (wAICc 0.44) and lognormal (wAICc 0.56) models were similar at TP 4.0 under dynamic Δ conditions. Model fitting results were equivocal among the lowest ( 2.0) and highest ( 4.5) TP groupings (Table 2, Fig. 3a). 560 Model performance supported the normal model for primary consumers at TP 2.0 due to highly symmetrical and relatively invariant TP distributions (e.g. Girella tricuspidata, Fig. 3b), although the difference in model performance was negligible under ΔCon. There was some evidence that the lognormal model outperformed the normal model for TP group 4.5 under ΔCon fractionation conditions and this pattern was stronger for the ΔDyn data. For example, model fitting results for Pomatomus saltatrix (highest order predator included in study) yielded taxon-level wAICc differences of 0.08 (ΔCon) and 0.30 (ΔDyn). The lognormal and the normal models were consistently the best performing models – fit statistics for the Gompertz model were much poorer than the other models (Table 2). Discussion This study tests a core assumption regarding the underlying characteristics of TP distributions using stable isotopes, one of the most widely applied analytical techniques for estimating TP and associated measures of variability. Our results indicate that properties of TP distributions among aquatic consumers are influenced by the functional trophic niche, although these patterns did not necessarily follow our a priori expectations. We found evidence that trophic level omnivory contributed a larger fraction of the assimilated diet of intermediate consumers relative to herbivores and tertiary consumers. In addition, consumer TP distributions generally followed normal distributions except among primary and tertiary consumers where there was evidence that some consumers may realize lognormal TP distributions. Ln-skewness 2.5 ∆Constant (a) ∆Dynamic 2.5 (b) 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 Table 2. Relative performance of theoretical distribution fit to trophic position distributions calculated using constant and dynamic Δd15N models (Method) for data aggregated into multi-species trophic position (TP) classes with number of taxa per class (Taxa) and total observations (n). Model performance presented as relative probability weights based on Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size (wAICc). Best performing model wAICc in bold. Parameter estimates of m and s from best fit probability distributions provided (Estimates). wAICc* Ln-variance –0.5 1.1 (d) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0 1.5 Ln-range (c) –0.5 0.6 (e) 0 1.3 (f) 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 2 3 4 5 2 3 Trophic position 4 5 Method TP Taxa Constant 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 6 9 26 35 12 3 6 9 24 31 9 3 Dynamic n 74 664 1518 1396 548 141 71 583 1490 1325 459 141 Estimates† Lognormal Normal 0.48 0.001 0.001 0.40 0.99 0.68 0.09 0.75 0.001 0.11 0.56 0.85 0.52 1.00 1.00 0.60 0.01 0.32 0.83 0.25 1.00 0.89 0.44 0.15 m Σ 1.99 2.50 3.00 3.50 1.37 1.50 2.00 0.91 3.00 3.49 1.39 1.50 0.13 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.04 0.04 0.12 0.09 0.16 0.17 0.03 0.05 *Gompertz model wAICc values are not included due to consistently poor performance of the Gompertz distribution as evidence by wAICc 0.08 for all TP classes. †parameterization of lognormal and normal models is not the same: mLognormal ≠ mNormal and sLognormal ≠ sNormal. 1) provided for each model. Model for small sample size (AICc), and relative model weights (wAICc) provided for each model. 0 Figure 2. Distribution ln-transformed skewness (y-axis; (a), (b)), variance (y-axis; (c), (d)) and range (y-axis; (e), (f )) of consumer trophic position equivalents calculated using constant and dynamic trophic fractionation (Δ) models plotted against literature-derived estimates of mean trophic position (x-axis). (a) and (b): dotted line 0. Note: y-axes in (c)–(f ) are given different scales above and below the break to allow all data to be shown, data below the break filled circles, data above the break open symbols. Influence of trophic niche on TP distribution properties Our analysis supports the hypothesis that there exist identifiable and predictable shifts in the properties of TP distributions in aquatic food webs. Most notably, the transition from primary to secondary to tertiary consumers entailed changes in TP variability and range, and a shift in optimal probability distribution. These results closely follow our a priori hypotheses (Fig. 1) and underscore the general trend of broader, more dispersed TP distributions among secondary consumers relative to primary and tertiary consumers. Also, our method of centering consumer d15N values to sitespecific means reduces the influence of spatial effects on TP distribution estimates resulting from individuals of the same taxon feeding in isotopically dissimilar food webs. Variance and total range are common analytical metrics in ecological studies and they provide excellent tools for examining structural aspects of trophic data sets. Here, in accordance with predictions, curvilinear patterns in both variance and range indicate that the realized TP of secondary consumers are more distantly distributed from the centers of their respective TP distributions than herbivores and tertiary consumers. The absence of an identifiable skewness trend shows that this dispersion is not unidirectional, but rather radiates in both directions along the TP axis. These structural characteristics explain the shift to normally distributed TP distributions among secondary consumers and support previous evidence that trophic level omnivory is a central facet of the trophic ecology of non-herbivorous consumers (Polis and Strong 1996, Thompson et al. 2007). Our results do not imply that trophic niche breadth is lower among primary consumers (herbivores) or tertiary predators, but rather that the number of trophic transfers separating consumers from basal energy sources (i.e. realized food chain length, Post 2002a) is more variable on average for intermediate consumers. From a food web dynamics perspective, the narrowing of TP distributions among herbivores and higher-order predators suggests that either trophic level omnivory is most common among intermediate consumers, or the effect of individual-level foraging yields more variable realized trophic positions among intermediate consumers. Neither explanation rules out certain omnivorous behaviors among higher trophic position consumers, particularly size- or age-dependent feeding behaviors (e.g. cannibalism, ontogenetic trophic shifts; Polis and Strong 1996). One interesting aspect of these findings is that the broader trophic position distributions among intermediate consumers indicates that functional redundancy in vertical trophic position is maximized at the center of aquatic food webs. The narrowing of trophic position distributions as organisms realize higher trophic positions means that the 561 Probability density 0.05 Constant ∆δ15N Dynamic ∆δ15N (a) 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 Probability density 0 0.05 (b) I 0.04 0.03 III II V VI IV 0.02 0.01 0 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 Trophic position 4.0 4.5 5.0 Figure 3. Non-linear least squares model fitting results for (a) normal and lognormal distributions fitted to multi-species aggregates grouped by incremental trophic position classes calculated assuming constant and dynamic trophic fractionation (Δd15N); and (b) best fit distributions (solid lines) to observed trophic position distribution frequencies for specific consumer taxa calculated assuming constant Δd15N (overlapping bars with serial darkening from left to right). Species and best fit distribution: I – Girella tricuspidata (normal); II – Aldrichetta forsteri (normal); III – Gobiopterus semivestitus (normal); IV – Acanthopagrus butcheri (lognormal); V – Macquaria colonorum (lognormal); VI – Pomatomus saltatrix (lognormal). Dynamic model fitting results for these species were qualitatively similar and are not included in (b). potential for functional overlap decreases at higher trophic positions and that the loss of individual taxa could have relatively stronger effects on food web dynamics. Our finding that TP distributions narrow at higher trophic positions appears counter-intuitive given empirical evidence that trophic resource bases can increase among higherorder predators due to increasing upper prey size limits set by predator–prey size ratio constraints (Scharf et al. 2000, Jennings et al. 2002b, Layman et al. 2005); yet, consideration of the TP proxy – stable isotopes – provides several explanations for our findings. First, consumer tissue stable isotope composition reflects the mass-averaged assimilation of all prey over an interval of time; therefore, larger prey items (in terms of digestible biomass) will contribute proportionately more to the isotopic composition of the consumer’s tissues per individual prey item consumed. This mass-averaging property of stable isotope composition, combined with the positive relationship that exists between body size and TP in aquatic food webs (Vander Zanden et al. 2000, Jennings et al. 2002b), provides an explanation for why TP distributions of tertiary consumers might contract relative to secondary consumers. From a food web dynamics perspective, this is a favorable aspect of stable isotope-based estimates of TP because the estimates are automatically weighted by the relative contributions of each prey item to the tissue mass of the consumer. Second, large-bodied consumers often require longer isotopic equilibration periods due to lower somatic growth rates and scaling effects of body mass on metabolism (Clarke and Johnston 1999, Woodward et al. 2005). It 562 is possible that the contraction of TP distributions among larger consumers was influenced by the time-averaging effect of longer equilibration times; however, there was no evidence of a linear or curvilinear relationship between body size and TP dispersion (Supplementary material Appendix 4 Fig. A3). Differences in Δ values have been identified among taxonomic groups and between herbivorous and carnivorous consumers (Vander Zanden and Rasmussen 2001, Vanderklift and Ponsard 2003, Caut et al. 2009); however, dietary or taxonomic disparities in the magnitude of Δ would be expected to have the largest influence on TP distribution patterns among taxa feeding on both plant and animal matter, or within taxonomically diverse groups. Finally, with the exception of the single bird species included in this study, we were unable to consistently sample the adult populations of the highest-order consumers. Presumably, the adult populations of these consumers are realizing higher TPs on average than the sub-adult contingents (Jennings et al. 2002a). Under our hypothesized relationship between TP distribution skewness and consumer trophic niche, the absence of large-bodied piscivores in our dataset would have reduced our ability to identify negatively skewed distributions. Static versus dynamic trophic fractionation There is vigorous debate in the field of stable isotope ecology regarding the application of constant versus dynamic Δ values (McCutchan et al. 2003, Caut et al. 2010, Perga and Grey 2010, Hussey et al. 2014). In this study, we evaluated the application of a previously reported dynamic Δ model (Hussey et al. 2014) versus a constant Δ model on inferences regarding the distribution characteristics of TP distributions. The influence of Δ selection on TP distributions was clearly apparent, with the alteration of positive and negative offsets in peak probability density among TP classes. As predicted, the exponential ΔDyn model results in narrower, less dispersed TP distributions when ΔCon / ΔDyn 1, and broader, more dispersed TP distributions when ΔCon / ΔDyn 1 for a given range of stable isotope data. Although this analysis was not designed to rigorously contribute to the constant versus dynamic trophic fractionation debate, the failure of the Hussey et al. (2014) model to yield tenable results without arbitrarily scaling regression parameters at high natural d15N values provides strong evidence that dynamic TP fractionation was not occurring in the food webs included in our dataset. Alternatively, we observed reasonable results when applying the much simpler ΔCon model across the full range of d15N conditions, consistent with other studies that have documented stable fractionation values across a gradient of baseline d15N conditions (Anderson and Cabana 2005, Bunn et al. 2013). More generally, results from studies using stable isotopes to investigate TP variability as an indicator of total or vertical trophic niche diversity (Olsson et al. 2009, Edwards et al. 2013) will depend on the Δ model selected. Interpreting results relative to previous studies presents the same risk and requires researchers to be cognizant of any differences in the underlying Δ model prior to drawing inferences based on the topical literature. It is important to note that using actual stable isotope data to explore trophic niche width (Bearhop et al. 2004, Jackson et al. 2011), rather than deriving and subsequently analyzing TP distributions, still requires an implicit decision regarding Δ. For example, direct comparisons of d15N variability across trophic groups or among multiple populations that differ in their relative positions in food web d15N space assume constant Δ (Edwards et al. 2013, Woodcock et al. 2013). Whether or not this assumption is appropriate for a given application is an aspect of stable isotope analysis that requires consideration. food web applications (Moore and Semmens 2008, Parnell et al. 2010, Jackson et al. 2011), it seems likely that options to incorporate probabilistic parameter distributions instead of explicit parameter estimates will soon be available in other food web models (e.g. Ecopath with Ecosim, Christensen and Pauly 1992, limSolve/LIM-MCMC, Kones et al. 2009). While such applications are technically and computationally feasible, they have apparently not yet been formally explored. In conclusion, we found substantial evidence to support the hypothesis that structural characteristics and probability distributions of consumer TP distributions vary as a function of trophic niche in estuarine food webs. We advocate further exploration of these relationships in other ecosystem types (e.g. marine, freshwater, terrestrial, soil), to test the generality of our results across ecosystems. Trophic relationships such as predator–prey size ratios, maximum food chain length, and the prevalence of omnivory can differ markedly in other ecosystems (Kelly 2000, Cury et al. 2003, Thompson et al. 2007, Hussey et al. 2014), and structural changes in these (and other) conditions can be expected to influence the relationship between consumer trophic niche and the properties of TP distributions. Careful scrutiny of dispersion patterns of individuals within groups of consumers should help inform researchers of the appropriate measures of central tendency to report when summarizing stable isotopebased estimates of TP. Such scrutiny will also provide food web ecologists with additional information to more accurately model food web structure and dynamics. Consequences for ecological modeling References Stable isotope data are increasingly being incorporated into ecological food web models. Applications of stable isotope data include trophic niche specification during model construction, constraining model outputs in solution space, and validation procedures (Baeta et al. 2011, Navarro et al. 2011, Pacella et al. 2013, Lassalle et al. 2014). While our focus in this study was on stable isotope data, our findings are also relevant for applications that use other sources of trophic information to calculate TP values (e.g. stomach contents). 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