Download Natural disasters and the economies of Asian countries: The case of

 Vietnam National University, Hanoi
University of Economics and Business
Natural disasters and the economies of Asian countries:
The case of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan, storms
and floods in Vietnam
Nguyen, Hue Minh
Instructor: Vu, Thanh Huong
Hanoi, Vietnam - 2110
Abstract
This research examines the impacts of natural disasters on the Asian countries
through two cases of natural disasters in Japan and in Vietnam. The research used
statistics, experts’ opinions together with personal analysis to examine these two cases
and focuses on discussing about the impacts on the economy of these countries, and then
expands conclusions in the scope of the Asian countries. The research argues that
natural disasters have considerable consequences in all aspects of human life and lead to
long term damages. The research concludes by making some recommendations to help
Asian countries to minimize the impacts of natural disaster on their economies. It is
emphasized that all humanity should understand about the importance of natural, and
collaborate closely to protect the natural and minimize disasters’ impacts.
Key word: natural disaster, impacts. Japan, Vietnam, Asia.
2 Table of Contents
I.
Introduction ...................................................................................................................4
II. Methodology..................................................................................................................5
III. Results ............................................................................................................................6
A. Understand about natural disasters and Asian countries’ economies ........................6
1. Natural disasters......................................................................................................6
2. Asian countries’ economies ....................................................................................6
B. Analysis the impacts of natural disasters on the economies of Asian countries
through the case of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan, storms and floods in Vietnam ..9
1. The impacts of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan ................................................9
2. The impacts of storms and floods in Vietnam ......................................................13
3. The impacts of natural disasters on Asian economies ..........................................15
C. Suggestions to minimize the impacts of natural disasters on the economics of Asian
countries ..........................................................................................................................18
III.
Conclusion................................................................................................................19
References ..........................................................................................................................21 3 I. Introduction Each year, millions of people are affected by harmful natural disasters. The
disasters could be explosions, earthquakes, floods, storms, or fires. In a disaster, people
must face the risk of death, injury, or missing. People may lose their house, properties,
and relatives. Therefore, natural disasters can cause a range of physical and emotional
reactions. These reactions not only affect people when disasters occur, but also affect
them in a very long time of their life.
Along with the global climate changes, natural disasters are increasingly becoming
an imperative issue of the humanity. It has major impacts on many countries around the
world including Asian countries. Earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis…etc., have
caused serious damages in all aspects of social life over the world, and economics is not
an exception. That how the natural disasters affect a country’s economics and how to
overcome and minimize these effects are still considering issues for many countries.
The purpose of this research is to examine the impacts of natural disasters on the
economics of Asian countries through the cases of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan, and
storms and floods in Vietnam; and propose several suggestions to minimize the effects of
disasters on the economics. More specifically, the research provides audiences an
overview of natural calamity and Asian economics. It is expected to help readers visualize
the tremendous power of nature and its increasingly negative effects on humans. As a
result, people in Asian countries as well as in other countries around the world may
understand more about major damages, and ready to help countries suffering damages
overcome these difficulties.
4 II. Methodology This research conducted qualitative method and the strategy of inquiry used was
case study. The cases were selected purposefully according to whether they typify certain
characteristics or not. In this research, two cases being chosen were earthquakes and
tsunamis in Japan, and storms and floods in Vietnam. They are decided to be chosen as
appropriate cases mainly because of two reasons: First, one case occurred in a developed
country (Japan) while the other one took place in a developing country (Vietnam) but all
of them happened in the Asian countries. Second, the disasters of these two countries
occurred in recent years and have had impacts on Asian countries’ economics.
Data types in this research are documents and audiovisual materials. Documents
collected are articles, journals, and researches published. Audiovisual materials collected
are photographs and videotapes. Data used in this research are mostly collected by
searching through the internet, and paper documents. The research used statistics, experts’
opinions together with personal analysis in order to answer two research questions:
-
What are the main impacts of natural disasters on Asian countries’ economics?
-
How to minimize these impacts?
The research confined itself to find some kinds of natural disasters which are
popular in Asia, and mostly through two cases of natural disasters in Japan and Vietnam.
Besides, this qualitative research will use information mostly from the internet and
conduct in a limited time. Therefore, some conclusions may be subjective opinions and
due care must be taken when generalizing this research results.
5 III. Results A. Understand about natural disasters and Asian countries’ economies 1. Natural disasters Natural disasters have occurred since the earth began forming and caused serious
damage and loss for life all over the world. Natural disasters can be defined as
occurrences, events or phenomenon that happen in nature such as earthquakes, floods,
volcanic eruptions, landslides, winds, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storm, etc...
Natural disasters are a disruption in the balance of the environment, and they have
many causes. They are caused by soil erosion, seismic activity, air pressure, and ocean
currents [1]. Soil erosion leads to many floods throughout the world. Seismic activity is
root cause of earth quakes, volcanoes erupting and typhoons. High or low air pressure
determines whether we have thunderstorms, rain and hurricanes. Ocean currents may lead
to tsunami. Nowadays, with the global climate changes, human activities also play an
important role in causing natural disasters. For example, floods may occur in areas where
mining, deforestation…; earthquakes can be triggered by drilling, bombing… Natural
disasters lead to financial, environmental or human losses.
2. Asian countries’ economies Asia is the world's largest and most populous continent, located primarily in
the eastern and northern hemispheres. It covers 8.6% of the Earth's total surface area (or
29.9% of its land area) and with approximately 4 billion people, it hosts 60% of the
world's current human population. During the 20th century Asia's population nearly
quadrupled [2]. Asia has the second largest nominal GDP of all continents, after Europe,
but the largest when measured in purchasing power parity. As of 2010, nominal GDP of
Asia was 18,515 trillion US dollars with annual growth of GDP per capita was 7.9% [2]
6 Asia is known as a rich natural resources continent in the world. It contains a huge
variety of metals such as gold, iron, lead, titanium, uranium, and zinc. Oil is also a
profitable resource for many Asian countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait.
However, countries which have these resources have not enough high technology to mine
them in advanced. Therefore, they accept to sell these natural resources to more
developed countries as raw materials with much lower prices.
Most of Asian countries are developing, and many of them are agriculture countries
such as Cambodia, India, Vietnam, etc... The main agricultural products in Asia include
rice and wheat. They are exported to countries in other continents like Australia, America,
and Sweden... Besides, sea products also bring large profits to countries with long
coastlines such as Japan, Vietnam...
The manufacturing sector is developing in many Asian countries. Especially, East
Asia region including Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, and Singapore is the strongest in this
sector with variety goods from cheap and low value to high-tech value. Major
manufacturing companies like LG, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, and Toyota are exported
widely to Europe, as well as America countries.
Interestingly, information technology has especially developed in some Asian
countries in recent year. India is one of the world’s largest exporters of software and other
information technology related services.
Furthermore, Asian countries are known as low cost labor resources for many
developed countries over the world. Especially, Asian labor forces are exported to
countries in Asia block such as Japan, Taiwan, and Korea... Besides, many multinational
companies on the world also outsource parts of their production to Asian countries as
India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, etc... to take advantage of low labor cost in this area.
Asian countries’ economies are interdependent with each other. They are increasing
the cooperation in economic development by set up trade blocks among Asian countries
7 such as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA).
Moreover, Asian countries also strengthen relationship with countries in other continents
like Asia – Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS).
In
2010,
the
largest
economies
in
Asia
are China, Japan, India, South
Korea and Indonesia [2]. China is the largest economy in Asia. In 2010, China had GDP
of 5,878,257 million US dollars, ranked at the second position among largest economies
over the world in 2010, after United States [12].
Since World War II to the 1990s, economic growth in Asia has been also
concentrated in Japan. As of 2010, Japan is the third largest economy in the world, after
the United States and China, in terms of both nominal GDP and purchasing power parity
with GDP of 5,458,872 million US dollars [12]
Figure 1: The ten largest economy in the world in 2010, measured in nominal GDP
(million of USD)
(Source: The International Monetary Fund)
8 In the late 1990s and early 2000s, India has grown rapidly with an average annual
growth rate of more than 8%. It is forecasted that India may overtake Japan in terms of
nominal GDP by 2020 [2].
South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore are known as the Asian tigers.
They have now all received developed country status, and have the highest GDP per
capita in Asia [2]
Besides, other countries such as Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Brunei,
Thailand, Malaysia, The Philippines and Indonesia now have been widely referred to
They are gradually enhance their position in the global economics. B. Analysis the impacts of natural disasters on the economies of Asian countries through the case of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan, storms and floods in Vietnam 1. The impacts of earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan Japan is an island nation in East Asia. It has a total of 6,852 islands extending along
the Pacific coast of Asia. The islands of Japan are located in a volcanic zone on Pacific
ring of fire; therefore, they are affected by large oceanic movements occurring over
hundreds of millions of years, by destructive earthquakes which often lead to tsunami
occurring several times each century.
The earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11th 2011 was one of the biggest
recorded from 1900. Measured at 8.9 on the Richter scale by the US Geological Survey,
the earthquake struck at 14:46 local time (05:46 GMT) at a depth of about 24km [3]. The
earthquake triggered destructive tsunami waves of up to 12 meters height, and struck
about 400km north-east of Tokyo. It devastated many areas in Japan. The nearest major
city to the earthquake was Sendai. At Sendai Port (Miyagi Prefecture), the tsunami wave
was high up to 10 meters. Runway at the Sendai airport was submerged in water. A lot of
cars, ships, buildings, and other constructions were swept away by wall of water. Dozens
9 of people stood on the roof of buildings to wait for rescuers. Many other regions were
also under serious effect from tsunami such as Iwate, Tohoku… Tsunami waves swept
across these regions and devastated entire towns.
Figure 2: Earthquake and tsunami in Japan
(Source: Underlying map from U.S. AID. Casualty and damage data from Japan,
National Police Agency) [6]
This major tsunami brought destruction along the Pacific coastline of Japan's
northern islands and resulted in serious damages. At first, it caused the loss of thousands
10 of lives. The Japanese National Police Agency has confirmed 15,505 deaths, 5,386
injured, and 7,305 people missing across eighteen prefectures [4]. Secondly, the tsunami
also destroyed a lot of infrastructures. On 3 April 2011, Japan's National Police
Agency said on 3 April 2011, that 45,700 buildings were destroyed and 144,300 were
damaged by the quake and tsunami. The damaged buildings included 29,500 structures in
Miyagi Prefecture, 12,500 in Iwate Prefecture and 2,400 in Fukushima Prefecture [2].
Another estimate showed that around 230,000 automobiles and trucks were damaged or
destroyed in the disaster. Besides, many highways in Tohoku, in the northern of Japan has
been damaged which caused transportation network of Japan was in major disruption.
Tsunami in Japan also led to large amount of rubbish from infrastructure which polluted
the environment, affected human life.
It can be seen that the direct damage from Japan’s earthquake and tsunami has
been concentrated in the northern region of the country, some distance from Japan’s
industrial heartland. The financial and economic effects, however, are spreading through
the Japanese economy, the East Asian region, and even global.
After the earthquake, the nuclear power plant Fukushima I, Fukushima II,
Onagawa, and Tokai with a total of 11 nuclear reactors were shut down automatically.
That led to power shortages in around 4.4 million households in northeastern Japan, and
plants in this area must reduce power consumption to 15%. Especially, many industries,
for example, car manufacturers, have reduced production due to lack of power. Many
farms were abandoned, breeding facilities were not cared, and a large number of
fishermen were unemployed. These caused disruption in economic activities and affected
supply chain of Japan.
One more important effect is that entire area of Fukushima I nuclear power plant –
220 kilometers far from Tokyo – were damaged and leaked radioactive materials. More
than 85,000 residents had to evacuate [5]. This had great effects on Japanese economy,
especially in export sector. Major export goods from Japan are cars, electronic devices
11 and computers. Besides, Japan also exports sea products, and other agriculture products.
Because of leaking radioactive materials, exported products from Japan were required to
be quarantined more tightly, and even many countries prohibited Japanese products
exported. As a result, Japanese exports fell 2.2 percent in March 2011 [13].
Furthermore, after the earthquake and tsunami in March, investment in Japanese
market decreased immediately. Ishare MSCI of Japan fell 1.3%, the dollar decreased
0.8% against the Yen. Investment activities in Exchange-Trade Fund (ETF) in Japan also
declined. EFT with a capital of 6 billion US dollars fell 5.3% in one week after the
tsunami.
Moreover, as under a direct effect from the earthquake, Japanese financial market
also suffered big changes. Nikkei index of Japanese stock market slipped 5% after the
earthquake occurred [14]. On March 14th, in an effort to maintain stability of financial
markets, Bank of Japan had to add 15 billion yen into money markets to ensure financial
stability in the context of stock slump and credit risk reduction increases [2].
There are several earthquakes occurring in Japan every year. Most recently, a fierce
earthquake known as Kobe in 1995 caused 6,400 deaths; with estimated financial damage
was 119.2 billion US dollars. However, this seems to be the first time Japanese have seen
such a large tsunami. In a report published on 26th June 2011, Japanese government the
damages after earthquake and tsunami on 11th March 2011 is approximately 16,900
billion yen, equivalent to almost 210 billion US dollars which not including losses due to
accidents at nuclear power plant Fukushima I. This damage estimated at about 1.8 times
higher than the losses after the Kobe earthquake in 1995 which led to total damage of
about 119.2 billion US dollars [5]. According to Tokyo government’s evaluation, within
some minutes, the earthquake and tsunami was swept away about 3.5% of Japanese GDP
which mainly due to private housing, road systems, crops, production facilities, electricity
systems, water systems, telecommunication network were devastated by tsunami. In short,
12 it can be seen that earthquake and tsunami cause severe economic consequences for
Japan.
2. The impacts of storms and floods in Vietnam Vietnam is located in the Indochina Peninsula, in Southeast Asia. The territory of
Vietnam runs along the east coast of the peninsula. Vietnam has land borders with China,
Laos and Cambodia, and 3,444 km coastline. Since Vietnam has a long coastline, the
climate of Vietnam is harmonized partly by the sea and own ocean climate factors. The
average
humidity
is
from 1200 to 3000 mm, hours
84%
throughout
of
sunshine
the
year.
are
Annual rainfall is
between
1,500
and 3,000 hours per year, and temperatures ranges from 5 ° C to 37 ° C. With this climate,
every year, Vietnam has to prevent storms and flooding with average 5 to 20 storms per
year [2].
One of the largest floods recorded within 24 recent years (from 1984) is the one
occurring from the night of October 30th 2008, a state meteorological official told
the Vietnam News Agency [7]. Heavy rainfall lasted for several days – from night of
October 30th 2008 to November 7th 2008, exceeded all forecasts, and caused a remarkable
flood in Hanoi at the same time. Moreover, heavy rains in the North and Central
provinces resulted in a widespread flood. Ms Nguyen Lan Chau, Deputy Director of the
National Centre for Hydro – Meteorological forecasting reviewed the rains from October
30th 2008 as the most unusual phenomenon on record. In general, mid-October is the time
when rainy season ends every year. However, in 2008, there was a heavy rainfall at the
end of October that led to waterlogged and major flood across provinces in the North and
Central of Vietnam [2]. That is a rare rain in history.
The flood caused considerable damages in Hanoi and many other provinces in North
and Central Vietnam. In Hanoi, there were 63 places in deep waterlogged including 30
places in about one meter deep in water [2]. Traffic networks were chaotic; thousands of
vehicles were damaged because they flooded in water. Many dikes in the Northern were
badly damaged, some of them were broken which were threatening Hanoi and Northern
13 provinces. Moreover, the floods killed around 80 people including 21 people in Hanoi, 22
people in Nghe An, and the others in other North and Central provinces. Overall, 15,000
families evacuated their homes, and almost 100 schools, 100,000 houses, 241,000
hectares of crops, and 25,400 hectares of fish farms were submerged or damaged in the
floodwaters [8].
After the floods, Vietnam economy also suffered heavy losses. Many offices,
warehouses were heavily damaged and had to shut down. Many office workers could not
go to work because of flood, their working activities were disturbed. Many markets had to
close. Many small businesses set up on roadside to mainly physical needs of people.
Besides, market prices of many types of merchandise increased because with prolonged
heavy rains, flood water surrounded, people could not go out for buying food. They,
indeed, had to eat noodles for few days or accepted to buy food with 5 times or 7 times
higher prices. The main items under the rapid price increases were as food, meat, fish,
vegetables, and other essential consumer goods. For example, price of a spinach bunch
was 3,000VND, but after the flood, its price was 15,000 to 20,000 VND. The markets in
flooded areas were chaotic and took time for adjusting after the flood. The estimated
damages were about 3,000 billion VND [2].
In fact, storms and floods occur frequently in Vietnam and caused considerable
damages every year. Floods occur every year in the Central of Vietnam. This region has
high mountains; rivers here are often narrow, steep slopes, small valley. Thus, relatively
large amount of rain in this region every year may cause floods pouring down and up very
fast. That will has considerable impacts on key economic regions of Central area consist
of 5 provinces (Thua Thien – Hue, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Da Nang) which
are under high risk of floods. Moreover, Central of Vietnam is also a region with many
beautiful places such as Hoi An (Hue), Phong Nha – Ke Bang (Quang Binh), Cua Lo
(Nghe An), etc… Summer is tourist season, but summer is also the season when Central
provinces are under highest risk of floods. Therefore, annual floods in Central large
amount of money from tourism business.
14 Cuu Long River Delta in South of Vietnam is also one region that has storms and
floods every year. Cuu Long River Delta is a part of the Mekong River Delta; therefore,
this region is fertile of silt by Mekong River. This region has favorable climate for
agriculture development especially the cultivation of rice and food crops. The area
planting rice and its yields is over 50% of Vietnam and average food per capita equals to
2.3 times more than national average food [2]. Hence, Cuu Long Delta is the main rice
exporter of Vietnam. Storms and floods every year make thousands hectares of rice are
submerged in water and damage tens ton of rice every year. As a agriculture countries,
these damages are really concerning issues of Vietnam.
Last but not least, floods in all regions also pollute living environment of people,
hygiene becomes difficult for many families because they lack of clean drinking water,
their personal hygiene do not guarantee, sewage water mixes with water in rain and
spread everywhere. People face with the risk of disease out-breaking such as diarrhea,
sore eyes…
3. The impacts of natural disasters on Asian economies Natural disasters take place in many countries in all continents over the world. Asia is
the continent which is most at risk from natural disasters [9]. Some areas are more
exposed to natural hazards because of location (on the coast, near a volcano or geological
fault). Cyclones occur most frequently over the Northwest Pacific, over the southern end
of the Bay of Bengal, east of India and south of Bangladesh. Bangladesh, China and India
are flood-prone countries of the region. Hilly and mountainous areas such as China, India,
Nepal, Philippines and Thailand are most prone to landslides, which are aggravated by
deforestation and cultivation that destabilizes slopes. Countries along or a near to seismic
zones as Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Nepal and Philippines are more vulnerable to
seismic events, while countries along the Pacific Rim are at risk from volcanic eruptions,
particularly Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines [9].
15 Figure 3: Natural disasters risk index 2010
(Source: http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportId=89305)
From the map, it can be seen that among the top 15 countries rated as the least safe
places on earth, the index lists ten Asian countries as well as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran,
Pakistan, Philippines, India, China, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Afghanistan. Besides, four
top countries at extreme risk of experiencing natural disasters are Bangladesh, Indonesia,
Iran and Pakistan, and all of them are Asia countries.
The impact of natural disasters in each region is severe including losses in people
and finance. Damages by disasters are closely linked with population density and
16 economic resources. Asian countries find themselves not only more exposed to natural
hazards like earthquakes, tsunamis, storms, floods, and landslides but are also the least
prepared to deal with such disasters. The reason why is that almost Asian countries are at
low or medium levels of human development in which their conditions are still not
enough for preventing serious natural disasters.
Table 2: Impact of Natural Disasters in Asia, 1972 – 2000
Region
Number killed
Number affected
Damage
(thousands)
(thousands)
(US$1 000)
South Asia
761
2 164 034
60 881
Southeast Asia
73
284 074
33 570
606
1 447 643
317 174
3
4 895
986
1442
3900645
412610
Northwest Pacific
and East Asia
Central Asia
Total
Note: Central Asia figures are for 1992/93-2000
(Source: CRED-OFDA 2002)[9]
In addition, each Asian country’s economy is considered as a part of the overall
economy of Asian block. That means the economy of each Asian country has interaction
with the others. Therefore, when a country faces with natural disasters and that country’s
economy is under the influence of the disasters, the economics of other Asian countries
are also somehow affected. For example, tsunami in Japan in March 2011 has great
impact on Asian economy. Disaster in Japan is a factor contributing to slow down growth
17 rate in Asian economy in 2011 which expected to 7.5 to 8% compared to 9% in 2010. In
fact, Japan is the largest foreign direct investment in some Asian regions. The difficulties
in Japanese economics may reduce investment in these regions. Moreover, Japan is source
of tourism revenue especially for Asian countries like Thailand which welcome a million
Japanese tourists every year. Japan is also an important trading partner of the region by
buying large amount of iron ore, coal, gas and other raw material from Indonesia,
India…which account for about 10% of total exports of the region [11]. The
earthquake destroyed many important infrastructure of Japan which may result in many
plants be unable to work, that caused harm to the export sector in Asia.
C. Suggestions to minimize the impacts of natural disasters on the economics of Asian countries Natural disasters are inevitable issues in Asian countries. Therefore, in order to
minimize impacts of natural disasters on the economies of Asian countries, it is necessary
to find out appropriate countermeasures when disasters strike. There are some
countermeasures which Asian countries can be used to cope with disasters:
-
Increase investments in sea dikes, river dikes to minimize the destruction power of
natural disasters.
-
Investment budgets in forestation, reforestation to minimize damages from floods,
and landslides.
-
Apply research and modern equipment to forecast the weather, to best forecast
coming time of natural disasters in order to have preparation to cope with disasters.
For example, National centre for hydro – meteorological forecasting in Vietnam
had research on “Building a forecasting systems of meteorological factors in
statistic method base on HRM model”, or “Applying NAWIPS software for
building analysis technology and weather map display”.
-
Be always willing to deal with emergency situations to minimize the economic
damages caused by natural disasters.
18 -
It is necessary for all nations to collaborate and share experience, technical
facilities for forecasting floods, earthquakes, tsunamis…
Besides, it can be seen that natural disasters are increasingly taking place and even
more severe. One important factor contributing to this increase is human activities which
are gradually altering the global climate. Hence, one more way to minimize the impacts of
natural disasters on the economics of Asian countries is try to reduce the amount of
disasters occurring.
By propagation activities, people may be expanded their knowledge about natural
disasters, their levels of dangers, and how to prevent and deal with them. All human
activities should be toward environmental protection and sustainable development. For
example, we can see the issue that together with the increase in demand of consumption
nowadays, mass products are resulting in the depletion of valuable resources and are
widely considered to be active contributors towards the rise in global temperatures.
Dealing with this problem, many firms used strategy of focusing on environmentally
friendly products. The facts show that a wide range of environmentally friendly products
such as natural shampoo, natural cosmetics, organic makeup, etc… are increasingly
preferred. Besides educate people about their roles in natural disasters issues, it is
necessary to develop the legal systems with clear terms about natural protection as well as
environmental protection.
III. Conclusion Natural disasters can be seen as one of the biggest environmental problems which
cause serious threat to the survival of many nations around the world. As regions which
are most affected by natural disasters, Asian countries are also suffered considerable
effects from natural disasters on people, economies as well as many other aspects of
social life. Moreover, with the trend of globalization nowadays, each nation’s economics
shifts toward a more integrated and interdependent world economy. That means, once a
19 region is hit by natural disasters and that nation’s economics is under influence from the
disasters, the economies of other countries may also be impacted.
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2011
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