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What is Kelvin? A Sample Problem Kelvin = Absolute temperature scale An object warms from 0 C to 10 C. T(Kelvin) = T(Celsius) + 273 What is its fractional increase in temperature? What is the meaning of absolute zero? What is its fractional increase in emitted energy flux? Can there be negative T on the Kelvin scale? What is temperature anyway? Hints: Stefan-Boltzmann F = σ T4, T in Kelvin σ = 5.67 X 10 -8 W/m 2/K4 T(K) = T(C) + 273 Flux on an angled surface Solution * Step 1 Convert to T(K): objects warms from 273 K to 283 K Step 2 Fractional increase in T: = ΔT/T O = 10/273 = 0.037 = 3.7% Step 3 Compute energy from S-B Law: F(273 K) = 314.9 W/m 2 F(283 K) = 363.7 W/m 2 Step 4 Fractional increase in F: = ΔF/F O = 48.8/314.9 = 0.155 = 15.5% Flux on a sphere Planetary Energy Balance 0 (reason why it is colder at higher latitudes) 1 Planetary Energy Balance 1 Planetary Energy Balance 2 Put this together: •Solar constant S=1370 W/m 2 flux of SW energy at the radius of Earth’s orbit around the sun EIN = S (1-A) πREarth 2 EOUT = σ TE4 4πREarth 2 •Earth intercepts SW energy with the area of a flat disk πREarth 2 EIN = E OUT S (1-A) / 4 = σ TE4 •But Earth emits LW energy over the entire surface surface of a sphere is 4πR Earth 2 Planetary Energy Balance 3 S (1-A) / 4 = σ TE4 EIN = (1370 W / m2) ( 1 – 0.3 ) / 4 = 240 W / m 2 So σTE4 = 240 W / m 2 In summary •Earth absorbs F IN = 240 W / m 2 of energy (averaged over whole earth surface, day and night) •In the approximation that the earth system radiates like a blackbody T E = 255 K = -18 C •But the average surface temperature of Earth is about 288 K = 15 C TE4 = ( 240 W / m 2 ) / (5.67 x 10 -8 W / m 2 /K) Where did we mess up??? TE = 255 K = -18 C TE = Effective radiating temperature Greenhouse Effect One-Layer Model (p43) S/4 Makes us warmer by ΔTg = TS - TE = 33 C (S/4)A σ TE4 σTs4= 2σTe4 1-layer Atmosphere (S/4)(1-A) σ TS4 Earth TE = 255 K TS = 303 K σ TE4 Ts = 2 1/4 T E same as without Greenhouse Effect Now we’re too hot! But you get the idea 2 One-Layer Model (p43) S/4 (S/4)A Model Assumptions σ TE4 •Whole atmosphere has temp TE 1-layer Atmosphere (S/4)(1-A) σ TS Earth 4 σ TE4 Neighboring Planets Venus - runaway greenhouse Earth - “just right” Mars - almost no greenhouse •Atmosphere absorbs no SW •Atmosphere completely absorbs all LW emitted by surface Are any of these correct? Heat Transfer Radiation – emission and absorption Contact – we call this sensible heat (“sense” as in“touch”) -- results in warm air near surface Evaporation – we call this latent heat (“latent” since air heats later, when condensation occurs) Energy Budget: TOA and surface One-model atmosphere gives wildly inaccurate surface temperatures for Venus and Mars Energy Budget in Climate System •Complex diagram for complex system •Based on “100 units” of incoming solar flux so think of these numbers as % •Many of these numbers are not that certain! •But numbers all balance nicely anyway, because they must! Energy Budget: Atmosphere Top of Atmosphere: IN = OUT Atmosphere: IN = OUT Surface: IN = OUT 3 Main Constituents of Earth’s Atmosphere N2 Nitrogen 78% O2 Oxygen 21% Ar Argon 1% H2O Water Vapor 0-4% CO2 Carbon Dioxide 0.037% (increasing) What is a greenhouse gas? A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs significantly the radiation emitted by the earth and its atmosphere. •N2, O2, & Ar contribute little to the greenhouse effect. •H2O & CO2 contribute a lot even though their concentration is low. Important Greenhouse Gases Radiation excites vibration and rotation in molecules most efficiently when molecules are not very symmetric, such as a triatomic (three atom) or more molecules Why does water vapor vary so much? Tropical (in ppm) H2O water vapor 0.1-40,000 CO2 carbon dioxide 370 NH4 methane 1.7 N2O nitrous oxide 0.3 O3 ozone 0.01 CFC chlorofluorocarbons ~0.0007 Sun and Earth emission from space What is up with Earth? •Saturation – amount of H2O vapor in air at point of condensation (maximum amount of vapor air can “hold”) •Saturation vapor pressure increases exponentially with T Arctic Most LW radiation emitted by the surface is absorbed by the atmosphere Tropical Arctic Peak wavelength of emission from ground 4 Thermal structure of the atmosphere Lapse Rate Rate at which temperature changes with height A measure of vertical stability. Why? Density depends inversely on temperature. Like Fig 3-9b Stable – warm fluid on top of cold fluid About 90% of the atmosphere’s mass is in the troposphere. Convection - caused by unstable air Occurs when heated from below Like boiling water Unstable – warm fluid below cold fluid Cloud types Cumulonimbus from Space Cumulonimbus Fig 3-10 Stratus and Mist Why consider clouds? Thick clouds reflect sunlight well and so influence planetary albedo Clouds are also fairly efficient absorbers/emitters of terrestrial radiation and so contribute to the greenhouse effect How do clouds form? 1. Start with air parcel (a volume of air with similar properties) containing water vapor 2. Lift parcel up • Heating at surface, thermals • Upslope wind forced by mountains • Converge of mass by large scale circulation 3. Parcel cools by rising 4. Parcel temperature reaches saturation 5. Condensation occurs => cloud forms 5 Parcel Saturation Saturation - amount of H 20 vapor in air at point of condensation 1. Parcel starts at T0 2. Cools by lifting 3. Reaches saturation curve at saturation temperature T1 T1 T0 Evaporation cools surface and moistens parcel Why do parcels cool as they rise? Because atmospheric pressure decreases with height, the surrounding air pushes with less force as parcels rise. This causes them to expand as they rise. Parcels do work to increase their volume, so they lose energy and they cool. Think of air escaping from an aerosol can or a tire Thin High Clouds Mostly composed of ice crystals and because they are thin solar radiation passes through, yet infrared radiation is mostly absorbed. Contribute more to the greenhouse effect then the planetary albedo. Surface Warming Thin High Cloud Thick Low Clouds •Often composed of water (sometimes ice too) •Highly reflective so they increase planetary albedo •Good blackbody radiators but their temperature is not very different from the surface temperature Surface Cooling Thick Low Cloud Usually reduced absorbed solar dominates their influence on Earth’s energy budget 6 Energy Balance Theory of Climate Change ΔTS = λ ΔF Part 2 ΔTS = λ ΔF Consider feedbacks related to changes in A (albedo) ALONE ΔTS = Response (change in surface temp) λ = Climate sensitivity (determined by feedbacks) ΔF = Forcing (change in energy balance) Get used to this equation! Remember these Equations? ΔTEQ = ΔTO + ΔTf EQ => equilibrium temperature change with feedback o => temperature change without feedback f => temperature change due to feedback f = ΔTEQ / ΔTO 0 < f < 1 if feedback is negative f>1 if feedback is positive Example: Doubled CO2 ΔTO = 1.2 K ΔTEQ = 1.5 to 4.5 K depends on the model What is f? Why? Negative feedback loop Low sensitivity Small temperature change Positive feedback loop High sensitivity Large temperature change Double CO2 Example f = ΔTEQ / ΔTO ΔTO = 1.2 K * ΔTEQ = 1.5 to 4.5 K depends on the model f is 1.2 to 3.5, so feedback is positive * How is this computed? Using planetary energy balance with higher radiation and convection responding to doubling CO2. WARNING book inconsistency! Examples of Climate Feedbacks Examples of Climate Feedbacks Water Vapor Feedback Ice-Albedo Feedback Fig 3-20 Fig 3-21 7 Cloud Feedback SW: increasing cloud amount => increasing albedo =>decreasing temperature LW: increasing cloud amount => increasing heat trapping => increasing temperature Cloud Forcing What is the effect on the TOA radiation budget from clouds in the current climate? Lots of research has shown… Clouds cool the planet - clouds reduce incoming SW flux more than they reduce outgoing LW flux Big question:What happens to cloud amount when temperature increases? Cloud Feedback If we increase the surface temperature, what happens? Don’t know for sure? What’s the inconsistency? ΔTO = temperature change “without feedback” BUT ΔTO actually is computed from a radiative-convection model which includes some feedbacks… NAMELY Run climate model… IR Flux - Temperature Feedback Looks like we reduce outgoing LW flux, reinforcing the surface warming, which would make cloud feedback negative in a warmer climate. Fig 3-22 Most important feedback of all? IR Flux - Temperature Feedback Fig 3-22 This strong negative feedback prevents positive feedbacks from causing runaway 8