Download Global Watch

調査レポート 02/93
2003 年 1 月 10 日
Global Watch
January 2003
CONTENTS
JAPANESE ECONOMY ……………………………………………….. 1
US ECONOMY ………………………………………………………….. 2
US TOPICS
Proposed large economic package will further deteriorate
the budget balance .…….……………………………………. 3
EUROPEAN ECONOMY
Effects of a rise in oil prices ………………………………… 4
Euro appreciation …...………………………....…………….. 4
ASIAN ECONOMY
South Korea ……………………… …..………………………. 6
Singapore ……………………………………………………… 6
China …………………………………………………………... 7
This is an abstract of our monthly reports on the Japanese, U.S.,
European and Asian economies, translated and edited by Mariko Noda
([email protected]), with the assistance of Ms. Chisa Hiro. The
information and the views contained herein are subject to change
without notice.
UFJ Institute
Economic Research Department
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
JAPANESE ECONOMY
by Akihiko Suzuki, Senior Economist
In general, it is said that the December Tankan Survey reflected worries about the
future, but we should not overlook that it also confirmed the current, continuing economic
recovery. The Business Conditions Indexes for the auto industry improved, as sales remained
robust both at home and abroad. Indexes for the paper, pulp, steel, and non-ferrous metal
industries also improved, owing to industry reorganization and a market recovery. Indexes for
the metal product and general machinery industries, which rely on business investment, rallied.
According to the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations, current profits of corporations
in total expanded by 4.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis (qoq) during the July-September period,
led by the manufacturing industry.
This represents the fourth consecutive quarter of an
increase. The improvement in corporate profits should promote business investment.
However, machinery orders, excluding orders for ships and electric power, which induce
business investment, remain stagnant. The Cabinet Office forecasted that they would fall by
6.5% qoq in the fourth quarter and result in two consecutive, declining quarters. October
machinery orders declined by 4.1% on a month-on-month basis (mom), but orders for machine
tools and industrial machinery recovered, as orders from the electric machinery and auto
industries increased. It is unlikely that large investment to expand production capacity will
increase, but a recovery in investment to renew production facilities and the information
technology (IT) related investment might be possible.
The unemployment rate declined to 5.3% in November, but the extent of the reduction
in employment, compared with the same month in the previous year, expanded consecutively
for the last two months to 840,000. The active opening ratio has risen slightly to 0.57 times in
November, but employment conditions remain uneasy. As a result, there are mixed indicators,
regarding private consumption.
The Consumer Confidence Index for Tokyo improved in
November for the first time in the last four months, but remained below the latest peak level,
recorded in July 2002. Real living expenditures for workers’ households declined by 2.1% mom
in November, representing the second consecutive month of a decline. It is, thus, likely that
private consumption will decrease in the fourth quarter. However, as private consumption
remained more resilient than expected through the third quarter, it could be said that the
decline in the fourth quarter should be an expected development. In the meantime, auto sales,
mainly small cars, remain buoyant, and sales of large-scale retail stores continue to increase in
real terms on a year-on-year basis (yoy).
The decrease in industrial production is worrisome: as production in the transportation
machinery and electric machinery industries decreased, it declined by 2.2% mom in November,
representing the third consecutive month of a decline. The inventory index decreased by 2.5%
mom for the first time in the last three months, and the inventory level fell below that in August,
considered to be the latest bottom. This data suggests that companies remain cautious about
building up inventories and increasing production, because of the uncertain prospects of the
1
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
world economy and the slowdown in exports. Exports declined on a month-on-month basis since
June, but increased in both October and November, led by those to the Asia. If exports remain
resilient, contrary to expectations, production may recover as indicated by the forecast index: it
suggests an increase of 0.3% mom in December and 1.2% mom in January. (2003.1.6)
（yoy, %）
Japan: Corporate profits
（yoy,%）
80
Japan: Exports by region
50
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0
0
-20
-10
-40
-20
-60
-30
97
98
99
All industries
Non-manufacturing
98
00
01
02
Manufacturing
Source: MOF
99
Total
ＥＵ
00
01
U.S.
02
Asia（including China）
China
Note: Figures are year-on-year changes of the backward
three-month moving averaged data, deflated by export
prices.
Source: MOF
US ECONOMY
by Hideki Nishigaki, Economist
The U.S. economy is slowing. Industrial production increased in November for the first
time in the last four months, but the extent of the increase is small; it rose by 0.1% mom. The
employment situation has deteriorated. Non-farm and manufacturing payrolls decreased by
40,000 and 45,000, respectively, from the previous month in November, and the unemployment
rate surpassed 6% for the first time in the last seven months.
With the deterioration in the employment environment and an intensified fear of war
with Iraq, December consumer confidence dropped by 4.6 points from the previous month to
80.3, and private consumption, mainly durable goods, slowed. Retail sales increased by 0.4%
mom in November, but car sales fell by 0.1% mom, representing the third consecutive month of
a decrease, partly due to the weakened effects of zero-interest rate loans.
Housing investment remains buoyant, owing to a decline in mortgage loan rates.
November housing starts increased by 2.4% mom to an annualized 1.697 million units.
Housing permits, a leading indicator of housing starts, remained as high as 1.725 million units.
The average contracted mortgage loan rate (fixed 30-year) fell to 5.69% as of December 27, the
lowest level in history. It is likely that housing investment will remain robust.
Meanwhile, business investment remains sluggish. Both core capital goods’
shipments and orders decreased by 1.1% mom and 2.6% mom, respectively. As the recovery in
2
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
IT related investment remains marginal, shipments of IT related machinery dropped by 0.4%
mom in November. With weak production and a difficult funding environment, it is likely that
business investment will remain stagnant.
October real imports declined by 4.0% mom, due to weak domestic demand,
while real exports dropped by 2.5% mom, as foreign economies are slowing. With a fall in
imports, the October trade deficit decreased by $2 billion from the previous month to $38.2
billion.
Owing to the possibility of war with Iraq and the real drop in oil production in
Venezuela due to strikes, oil prices soared: The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) February price
surged to 31.08 dollar par barrel as of January 7, the highest level since November 2000. If the
rise in oil prices adds inflationary pressure and tightens household financial situation in the
midst of the cold winter, it is feared that private consumption may suffer. (2003.1.8)
US TOPICS
by Hideki Nishigaki, Economist
§Proposed large economic package will further deteriorate the budget balance
As the U.S. economy is slowing, President Bush proposed a large economic package of
$674 billion over 10 years on January 7. The proposal includes measures that would accelerate
income tax cuts approved in 2001 to provide a $1.35 trillion reduction in income tax over 10
years. Measures would also eliminate double taxation on dividends, extend unemployment
benefits, and grant aid for states.
With these broad measures, President Bush would like to ensure that he will be
re-elected in 2004. In past elections, the economic situation in the third year of the presidential
term is considered critical to re-election. Mr. Bush would like to avoid the same fate of his
father, who lost despite the victory in the Gulf War. According to the White House, under this
proposal, 92 million taxpayers would receive, on average, a tax cut of $1,083 in 2003. However,
as the initial tax cuts of $98 billion over the first 16 months account for only about 1% of GDP,
economic stimulation may be limited. In addition, the package will inevitably deteriorate the
budget balance. As a result, it is feared that long-term interest rates may rise. (2003.1.8)
（yoy, %）
9.0
Real GDP growth rate ｂｙ each presidency
7.0
ReaganⅠ('81-'84):re-elected
5.0
G.Bush ('89-'92): lost
?
3.0
Clinton Ⅰ（'93-'96): re-elected
G.W.Bush ('01-'04): unknown
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
1st year
2nd year
3rd year
4th year
3
Source:
U.S. Department of Commerce
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
EUROPEAN ECONOMY
§Effects of a rise in oil prices
by Hiroki Shimazu, Economist
With the increasing likelihood of a war in Iraq and turmoil in Venezuela, oil prices have
soared since mid-December. An increase in oil prices raises prices in general, deteriorates
consumer confidence, and weakens consumption, due to the reduction in real income. As the
current recovery in the Euro area remains feeble, a further slowdown in consumption may
result in a recession.
The increase in oil prices may be partly offset by the euro’s appreciation, but only to a
limited extent. According to our estimates, the December year-on-year consumer price growth
rate may rise by 0.36%, due to a surge in oil prices. The average dollar/euro exchange was 1.02
and the WTI oil price was 29.39 dollar par barrel in December. (2003.1.8)
Euro area: Effects of oil price hikes on consumer prices
（yoy contribution rate,%points）
Exchange rate（$ / euro）
Oil prices
（$ / Barrel）
1.00
1.05
1.10
25.0
0.04
-0.04
-0.12
30.0
0.34
0.26
0.18
35.0
0.61
0.53
0.44
Note: The estimation is based on the following equation.
log (Energy price index ）＝α× log (Oil price）＋4.10
＜19.99＞　＜136.21＞
＜＞ indicates t value.
Estimation period: 1997.1 to 2002.11
Adjusted R-square: 0.922, D.W.: 0.17
Oil price: WTI, converted into euro
The weight of the energy price is used to estimate the
effects of oil price hikes on consumer price indexes.
Consumer price indexes are Harmonized Indices of
Consumer Prices (HICP).
Source: Datastream, and own estimates.
§Euro appreciation
by Mariko Noda, Economist
Since December, the euro has soared against the dollar. The euro began to rise last
spring and surpassed the parity level in mid-July. Since then, it has remained around parity for
some time, but it began to rise as the situation with Iraq worsened.
Changes in capital flows also support euro appreciation. Substantial outflows in direct
investment from the Euro area, restraining the euro until last year, have waned. In addition,
with the increasing uncertainty about the prospects of the U.S. economy and the potential of
war in Iraq, outflows of portfolio investment have decreased, while inflows of portfolio
4
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
investment, mainly debt instruments, have expanded.
Equity investment flows have
diminished, as stock markets remain bearish.
In the past, the dollar has strengthened with crises, but money is returning to its home
country these days, as uncertainty grows. If this proves to be the case, the euro may stay
around parity for some time. (2003.1.8)
Euro area: US$ / Euro exchange rate
Euro area: Capital accounts --- Direct　investment
(US$/euro)
billion euro
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
98
99
0.90
Outflows
0.85
2003/1/1
2002/12/1
2002/11/1
2002/9/1
2002/10/1
2002/8/1
2002/7/1
2002/6/1
2002/5/1
2002/4/1
2002/3/1
2002/2/1
2002/1/1
billion euro
00
01
Inflows
02
Net flows
Euro area: Capital accounts --- Equity
150
100
50
Source: Datastream
0
-50
-100
Euro area: Stock prices ( Eurostoxx)
-150
330
-200
-250
310
98
290
99
Outflows
270
250
billion euro
100
230
00
01
Inflows
02
Net flows
Euro area: Capital accounts --- Debt instruments
210
50
190
170
0
Source: Datastream
2003/1/1
2002/12/1
2002/11/1
2002/10/1
2002/9/1
2002/8/1
2002/7/1
2002/6/1
2002/5/1
2002/4/1
2002/3/1
2002/2/1
2002/1/1
150
-50
-100
98
99
Outflows
00
Inflows
01
02
Net flows
Note: Positive figures indicate capital inflows to the Euro
area, negative figures indicate outflows. The mega
merger deal in Feb. 2000 is excluded.
Source: Datastream
5
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
ASIAN ECONOMY
§South Korea
by Masato Horie, Economist
Consumer confidence has deteriorated to a large extent: The Consumer Expectation Index,
which represents how consumers feel about the prospects for the economy over the next six months,
declined to 93.4 in November, the lowest level since October 2001.
This figure reflects a
deterioration in household solvency. In South Korea, as the interest rates have fallen since the
Asian currency crisis, consumer loans have expanded sharply. As a result, household bankruptcy
has surged, and it may have reached a historical high in 2002. (2003.1.8)
Korea: Consumer present situation index and
Consumer expectation index
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
2000
2001
2002
Consumer present situation index
Consumer expectation index
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
by Shingo Takeshima, Economist
§Singapore
The year-on-year growth rate of real GDP slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter from
3.9% in the third quarter, but the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate rose significantly
to 0.1% from minus 9.9% in the third quarter. The growth rate of the manufacturing sector
slowed to 6.7% yoy, while the construction sector remained sluggish and contracted by 10.0%
yoy, due to stagnant property markets.
In 2002, real GDP grew by 2.2% and recovered from 2001, when the real GDP
contracted by 2.0%, the worst record in history. However, as the economy slowed in the latter
half of the year, the recovery has remained mild.
The Singapore government forecasts that real GDP will grow by between 2% and 5% in
2003. As there are a number of uncertain factors, such as the potential war in Iraq in 2003, it is
only since 2004 that the Singapore economy will begin to recover with strength. (2003.1.8)
6
UFJ Institute
Global Watch January 2003
Economic Research Dept.
(yoy, %)
15
Singapore: Real ＧＤＰ growth rate
10.3％(2000）
10
2.2％(2002）
5
6.9％('99）
0
▲0.1％('98）
-5
▲2.0％(2001）
-10
97
98
99
00
01
02
Source: Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry
by Takamoto Suzuki, Economist
§China
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that real GDP grew by 8.0% in 2002, due
to buoyant investment and trade, as well as healthy consumption, mainly housing related items
and autos.
Meanwhile, it pointed out several macroeconomic problems, such as stagnant
growth in rural income relative to levels in urban areas, and significantly higher growth in
savings, compared with consumption.
Since last summer, the Chinese government has worried about the rapid growth in
money supply, mainly real estate loans. However, it decided to keep the easy monetary policy in
2003, as deflation continues despite the rapid money supply growth. The money supply (M2)
grew by 16.6% yoy in November, for the fourth consecutive month above the 15% growth rate,
while the consumer price index fell by 0.7% yoy. As the extent of the decline in consumer prices
appears to have deepened, expectations for further cuts in interest rates have grown. (2003.1.8)
（yoy, %）
18
China: Money supply and consumer price index
（yoy, %）
2.0
Consumer price index
（R-H）
17
Money supply
(L-H)
16
1.5
1.0
0.5
15
0.0
14
-0.5
13
-1.0
Initial Money supply target range for 2002
12
00
Source: CEIC
-1.5
01
02
7