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Software Engineering Spring Term 2016 Marymount University School of Business Administration Professor Suydam Week 14 1 • • • • MP4 Discussion Final Exam Preparation Customer Requirements – the “Real World” Software Disasters 2 3 Customer meeting – establishing requirements and roles 4 Outline • Infamous Failures • Classic Mistakes • Best Practices • Top 10 Worst Practices 5 R. Ryan Nelson , MIS Quarterly Executive Vol. 6 No. 2 / June 2007 Retrospectives by project postmortems or post-implementation reviews 99 retrospectives conducted in 74 organizations over the past 7 years “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” — Albert Einstein 10 of the most infamous IT project failures • Large magnitude • Over $100 million • One-half come from the public sector wasted taxpayer dollars lost services • the other half - the private sector billions of dollars in added costs lost revenues lost jobs. 6 PROJECT: Business Systems Modernization; Launched in 1999 to upgrade the agency’s IT infrastructure and more than 100 business applications • $8 billion modernization project , team of vendors • a complex project overwhelms the management capabilities of both vendor and client. • the most expensive systems development “fiasco” in history, with delays costing the U.S. Treasury tens of billions of dollars per year. • ability to collect revenue, conduct audits, and go after tax evaders was severely compromised http://www.cio.com/article/32197/No_Easy_IT_Fix_for_the_IRS?page=1&taxonomyId=3195 7 PROJECT: Advanced Automation System (AAS); FAA’s effort to modernize the nation’s air traffic control system. • Estimated to cost $2.5 billion ($1.5 billion is wasted) • Numerous delays and cost overruns, which were blamed on both the FAA and the primary contractor, IBM. • Technical complexity of the effort, bad resource estimation, ineffectively requirements control • "For example, they wanted the system to have only 3 seconds of downtime a year. But to get the data to prove that requirement had been met would have taken about 10 years” (later on change to 5 minutes downtime) • Instead of admitting the problem, IBM turned AAS into a research project • The project collapsed http://www.baselinemag.com/c/a/Projects-Processes/The-Ugly-History-of-ToolDevelopment-at-the-FAA/ 8 PROJECT: “Trilogy;” Four-year, $500M overhaul of the FBI’s antiquated computer system. • Ill-defined requirements, changed dramatically after 9/11 (agency mission switched from criminal to intelligence focus) • $170 million project was abandoned altogether • 400 problems with early versions of the troubled software, but never told the contractor • The bureau went ahead with a $17 million testing program even though the software would have to be scrapped 9 PROJECT: “Innovate;” Digital network for creating a real-time enterprise planned to spend $1 billion over five years • Objective: to better serve customers by using information and communications technologies to monitor the quality of products and services • Executives in company headquarters would have been able to see how soda dispensers and frying machines in every store were performing, at any moment. • Would need $1billion for infrastructure, and many millions of $ to maintain and upgrade • After two years and $170M, the fast food giant threw in the towel. 10 PROJECT: Baggage-handling system. • It took 10 years and at least $600 million to figure out big muscles, not computers, can best move baggage • The baggage system, designed and built by BAE Automated Systems Inc., launched, chewed up, and spit out bags so often that it became known as the “baggage system from hell.” http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/102405/United_axes_troubled_baggage_system_a t_Denver_airport?taxonomyId=73&pageNumber=1 11 PROJECT: “Confirm;” Reservation system for hotel and rental car bookings • After four years and $125 million in development, when it became clear that Confirm would miss its deadline by as much as two years. • Was supposed to be a leading edge comprehensive travel industry reservation program combining airline, rental car and hotel information • Major problems surfaced when Hilton tested the system, then 18 months delay and the problems could not be resolved http://sunset.usc.edu/classes/cs510_2004/notes/confirm.pdf 12 PROJECT: “MasterNet;” Trust accounting system. • Hardware problems caused the Bank of America (BofA) to lose control of several billion dollars of trust accounts. • All the money was eventually found in the system, but all 255 people in the entire Trust Department were fired, as all the depositors withdrew their money. • This is a classic case study on the need for risk assessment, including people, process, and technology-related risk. • BofA spent $60M to fix the $20M project before deciding to abandon it altogether. BofA fell from being the largest bank in the world to No. 29 • CRACK stakeholders problems, bad modular design, focusing in competing with competitors-but ready for transition 13 PROJECT: IT systems modernization • $1.4 billion IT modernization effort aimed at linking its sales, marketing, supply, and logistics systems. • 18 months later, cash-strapped Kmart cut back on modernization, writing off the $130 million it had already invested in IT. • Four months later, it declared bankruptcy • Failing to allocate enough money and manpower to not clearly establishing the IT project's relationship to the organization's business 14 PROJECT: “Taurus;” Paperless share settlement system. • £800 million, original budget £6 million • Abandoned after 10 years of development • Developed by Vista Concepts, US, for database management. Although being very good for on-line real time processing, it could not handle distributed data processing or batch processing • LSE tried to modify Vista by rewriting almost 60% of it, hence hidden bugs and long delays • Grew from a settlement only system, to become a full “share registration and transfer system”. http://www.it-cortex.com/Examples_f.htm 15 PROJECT: Integrated Enterprise Software • $400 million installing ERP*, CRM*, and SCM*—the full complement of analyst-blessed integrated enterprise software. • Caused major inventory glitch, over-produced some shoe models and under-produced others • Profits drop by $100 million *ERP (Enterprise resource planning); CRM (Customer relationship management); SCM (Supply chain management) 16 • • • • • Behind schedule Add more people Want to speed up development Cut testing A new version of OS becomes available during the project, Time for an upgrade! • Key contributors aggravating the rest of the team? Wait until the end of the project to fire him! 17 • Undermined motivation -- productivity and quality • Individual capabilities of the team members or the working relationships • Failure to take action to deal with a problem employee • Adding people to a late project -- pouring gasoline on a fire 18 • BDUF – Big Design Up Front* • Underestimate, overly optimistic schedules, under scoping it, undermining effective planning, and shortchanging requirements determination and/or quality assurance -- Poor estimation also puts excessive pressure on team members, leading to lower morale and productivity. • Insufficient risk management • Contractor failure - outsourcing and offshoring Big Design Up Front (BDUF) is a software development approach in which the program's design is to be completed and perfected before that program's implementation is started. It is often associated with the waterfall model of software development. 19 • FAA’s modernization effort, where the goal was 99.99999% reliability, which is referred to as “the seven nines.” • Requirements gold-plating* • Feature creep -- average project experiences about a +25% change in requirements over its lifetime. • Developer gold-plating* - new technology that are required in the product. • Research-oriented development • Silver-bullet syndrome** • Overestimated savings from new tools or methods • Switching tools in the middle of a project • *Gold plating in software engineering or Project Management (or time management in general) refers to continuing to work on a project or task well past the point where the extra effort is worth the value it adds (if any). After having met the requirements, the developer works on further enhancing the product, thinking the customer would be delighted to see additional or more polished features, rather than what was asked for or expected. The customer might be disappointed in the results, and the extra effort by the developer might be futile • **Silver Bullet Syndrome is the belief that the next big change in tools, resources or procedures will miraculously or magically solve all of an organization’s problems. This assumption is almost invariably erroneous. 20 • Process mistakes (45%), people mistakes (43%), product mistakes (8%), and technology mistakes (4%) -- project managers should be experts in managing processes and people. • Scope creep didn’t make the top ten mistakes -- As long as project manager pays attention to it • Contractor failure has been climbing in frequency in recent years • If the project managers had focused their attention on better estimation and scheduling, stakeholder management, and risk management, they could have significantly improved the success of the majority of the projects studied. 21 Avoiding Poor Estimating and/or Scheduling • Cost overrun, 1994-180%, 2003-43%, • Schedule overrun, 2000- 63%, 2007-82%. • Cone of uncertainty: By multiplying the “most likely” single-point estimate by the optimistic factor Lower bounds - optimistic estimate Upper bounds - pessimistic estimate. • Capital Cushioning 100% cushion - beginning of the feasibility phase 75% cushion in the definition phase 50% cushion in design 25% cushion at the beginning of construction 22 Valuable approaches to improving project estimation and scheduling • Timebox* development -- shorter, smaller projects are easier to estimate • Creating a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) -- to help size and scope projects • Retrospectives -- to capture actual size, effort and time data for use in making future project estimates • A project management office to maintain a repository of project data over time. * In time management, timeboxing allocates a fixed time period, called a time box, to each planned activity. Several project management approaches use timeboxing. It is also used for individual use to address personal tasks in a smaller time frame. It often involves having deliverables and deadlines, which will improve the productivity of the user. 23 • Ineffective stakeholder* management is the second biggest cause of project failure • Have to know • who has influence over others • who has direct control of resources • stakeholder level of interest • Stakeholder degree of support/resistance * Stakeholder – a group, organization, member, or system that affects or can be affected by an organization's actions 24 • Risk identification, analysis, prioritization, risk-management planning, resolution, and monitoring. • Methods/ tools a prioritized risk assessment table a top-10 risks list, interim retrospectives appointing a risk officer 25 • When a project falls behind schedule, the first two areas that often get cut are testing and training. • Cut corners by eliminating test planning, eliminating design and code reviews, and performing only minimal testing • Suggestions: agile development, joint application design sessions, automated testing tools, and daily build-and-smoke tests. 26 • Get the right people assigned to the project from the beginning • Between 1999 and 2006, the retrospectives reported an increasing number of problems with distributed, inter-organizational, and multi-national teams. • Reduction in face-to-face team meetings, time-zone barriers, and language and cultural issues 27 Not only getting top management support, but identifying the right sponsor -- From the beginning !!! 28 Capers Jones, "Our Worst Current Development Practices," IEEE Software, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 102-104, Mar. 1996 Project failures • terminated because of cost or schedule overrun • experienced schedule or cost overruns in excess of 50 percent of initial estimates • resulted in client lawsuits for contractual noncompliance Worst Practice #1 No historical software-measurement • Lack of historical data makes stakeholders blind to see the realities of software development • Need to check on schedule, cost, progress, performance Worst Practice #2 Rejection of accurate estimates No accurate estimate is the root cause for the rest of the worst practices including: • inability to perform return-on-investment calculations • susceptibility to false claims by tool and method vendors • software contracts that are ambiguous and difficult to monitor. 29 Worst Practice #3 & 4 - Failure to use automated estimating tools and automated planning tools. • 50 commercial software-cost estimating tools Checkpoint, COCOMO, Estimacs, Price-S, or Slim • 100 project-planning tools on the market Microsoft Project, Primavera, Project Manager’s Workbench, or Timeline • Combination of estimating and planning tools leads to accurate and realistic outcomes not easily overridden by clients or executive Other Worst Practices • 5 & 6 - Excessive, irrational schedule pressure and creep in users’ requirements • 7 & 8 - Failure to monitor progress and to perform risk management “90 percent completion” • 9 & 10 - Failure to use design reviews and code inspections. 30