Download Global Trends, Developing Countries and the Role of

GLOBAL TRENDS,
DEVELOPMENT
DYNAMICS AND THE
ROLE OF THE OECD
“Policy Coherence for Development in a post-2015
Era’’ Conference, March 4th 2014
Carl J. Dahlman
OECD Development Centre
Structure of Presentation
•
Key Global Trends
•
Implications for Development Dynamics
•
Key Issues for a Renewed Global Partnership for Development
•
Role of the OECD in Facilitating Transformational Change
Key Global Trends
•
Economic
– Increased competition and interdependence
– Risk of other major global financial crisis
•
Social
– Increasing inequality with-in and across countries
– Unemployment/Youth inclusion
•
Environmental
– Global constraint on CO2 absorption-climate change
– Environmental degradation
•
Technology
– Continued ICT revolution impacting economy and society
– Increasing ability to engineer new materials and life forms
•
Geopolitical
– Shifting balance of economic power
– Outdated and incomplete global governance system
Changing Shares of Global GDP in PPP
S
h
a
r
e
o
f
80
70
60
50
G
l
o
b
a
l
China, People's Republic of
40
India
Japan
30
United States
Advanced economies
20
Emerging & developing economies
10
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
G
D
P
Source: IMF Datamapper
Implications for Development Dynamics
•
Because of greater global interdependence, the global context matters very
much for development
•
There are many major global challenges that are not being sufficiently
addressed and which have a major impact on global growth and
development
•
There are still almost a billion people living in extreme poverty (less than
PPP 1.25/day). They are very vulnerable to climate change and other
external shock
•
Some emerging middle income countries are increasingly important as
sources of development assistance as well as development knowledge
BRIICs in Global Income Distribution
100
90
Percentilf of world income distribution
80
70
United States
60
Russian Federation
Brazil
50
South Africa
China
40
Indonesia
India
30
20
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
99
100
Country percentile in incomes
Source: Milanovic, B. (2012), "Global income inequality by the numbers: in history and now -- an overview --," Policy Research
Working paper Series 6259, The World Bank.
Key Issues for Renewed Global Partnership
•
Because of greater global interdependence development is not just about aid
•
It also depends very heavily on global economic environment and global
public goods
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Trade and Investment
Financial stability
Knowledge and technology
Stable climate
Peace
Freedom from communicable diseases
Incorporating fairness into global agreements
•
There is a need to incorporate provision of global public goods into
development debates and concerns with poverty reduction
•
There is also a need to work more closely with new emerging powers in
– Technical and policy knowledge for development
– Financing for development
– Improving the global governance system
The Role of the OECD
•
There are many institutions working on development
– UN and other multilateral institutions such as WTO, WIPO
– G20, G8, Group of 77 and other ad hoc global organizations
– Multilateral and private financial institutions
– MNCs and private sector
– Think tanks, consulting companies, and academics
– NGOs
– Foundations
•
Comparative advantage of the OECD
– Platform to compare policy experience and seek answers to common problems—think
tank
– Intergovernmental organization>more than think tank
– Capacity for benchmarking
– Ability to coordinate domestic and international policies-- “Soft law”
Some Specific Areas
Where the OECD Can Contribute (1)
•
More analysis of key areas of the global system that are critical for
development
– Climate change
– Communicable diseases
– Financial stability
– Trade
– Innovation
•
Benchmarking
– Extending Better Life index to developing countries
– Developing indicators of policy coherence for development
Some Specific Areas
Where the OECD Can Contribute (2)
•
Policy coordination and coherence
– Better and broader coordination of development assistance including drawing on
capabilities and experience of emerging countries
– More efforts to develop and disseminate policy and technical knowledge needed to tackle
the multiple dimensions of development
– Developing alternative future scenarios to sensitize stakeholders about critical global
issues that need to be addressed
•
Greater efforts to help improve capacity in developing countries to
– Develop strategies with more understanding of global context and national needs
– Coordinate and implement development strategies
– Improve institutions and regulations to increase efficiency and flexibility to respond to
changing needs
– Increase the education and skills of people
– Take advantages of new technologies, and technical and organizational innovation
THANK YOU!
Carl J. Dahlman
OECD Development Centre
[email protected]