Download Paradox 1

Measuring Hunger: What is Required
for Policy Making?
J.V. Meenakshi
Delhi School of Economics
Data systems needed for
• Monitoring short term shocks (from
food price shocks; civil conflict)
• Tracking long term trends (response to
secular changes in prices; diet
globalization; structural changes in
pattern of agriculture)
• Devising appropriate policy responses
– Current paradoxes
– Data needs for effective policy
Two (Indian) paradoxes
• Apparent lack of relationship between
incomes and energy intakes
• Apparent lack of relationship between
food intakes and nutritional outcomes
(both for children and adults)
– Gendered patterns to changes in
nutritional outcomes
Paradox 1: Response of calories to changes in
income shifting down over time and becoming
flatter. Particularly true for calories from cereals
Log Calories
1983
2004/05
Log Income
Stylized representation of Deaton and Dreze (2009)
What about changes in distribution?
1.2
There is FOSD for total expenditure (proxy for income)
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Stylized representation from Ramaswami et al (2011)
1.2
There is no FOSD for distributions of energy intakes
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
Stylized representation from Meenakshi and Viswanathan (2003).
Actual distributions estimated nonparametrically
60
Paradox 2: No apparent relationship between
food intakes and nutritional outcomes
Bih
Megh
Ass
OriWB
Maha
Kar
Jhk
40
AP
Har
Uttr
Raj
Ar P
Del
Naga
Sik
Pun
Tri
Miz
HP
Mani
J&K
30
TN
Goa
Ker
20
prevalence rates
50
Chhatis
Guj
MP
UP
1800
Source: Meenakshi (2011).
2000
2200
calorie intake (per capita per day)
2400
How relevant is the Indian experience?
• Preliminary analyses from a small sample from
Zambesia, Mozambique, suggests similar
relationships
• Preliminary analysis of data from three
districts in Uganda also indicate remarkably
low slopes
Implications for the relevance of data
for policy design (in India)
• Indian poverty statistics now divorced from
poverty lines based on energy intakes.
Anchoring is now loosely based on child stunting
(though not explicitly stated)
• Right to food soon to be enshrined as law
• Young child nutrition interventions have food as
a major plank. Yet the limited number of
assessments of the ICDS show no major impact
• Without demonstrating relevance, hard to get
buy-in to collect information in the first place. Is
this within the FAO’s mandate?
Data needs for effective policy and the
role of the FAO
• Is there consensus (particularly among the
nutrition community) on the magnitude and
interpretation of the norm?
– Small changes in norms make big differences to
estimated prevalences of inadequacy
– Average calorie gap has, in general, reduced
• If not, what is required to build it? WHO?
NIN?
• To what extent are these relationships
borne out by 24-hour recall data? Meta
analyses would be useful
Data needs for effective policy
• Need to strengthen inputs into food balance—are
the state-of-the-art practices being followed?
• Price data increasingly critical, especially with
increases in global food prices accompanied by
increased volatility in prices. Has implications for
design of social safety nets. What is the status of
these indicators?
• What are the minimal and feasible set of indicators
for monitoring and evaluation of food/health
interventions? Plethora of data systems available;
but not harmonized. Need for focus on data quality
rather than methodology; however…
• “Routine“ information systems must be augmented by
complementary information systems; less frequently
canvassed, but capable of addressing policy issues. E.g.
is it now time to monitor dietary quality in addition to
food quantities?
• Simplified methods are essential—can FAO/WHO/WB
can play a critical role in designing these? A
compromise between 7-14 questions and 40-page
questionnaires needed!
• Dietary recall surveys currently too cumbersome to be
part of regular data collection efforts. Should the
WHO/FAO lead this effort?
LSMS
Dietary
recall??
DHS