Download PAGES 4-5 KEY Organize the data into the circles. A. Factors of 64

PAGES 4-5 KEY
Organize the data into the circles.
A. Factors of 64: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64
B. Factors of 24: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 24
A
16
32
64
3
1
8
6
12
24
2 4
Answer Questions about the diagram below
Fall Sports
Winter Sports
21
13
6
8
3
2
19
Spring Sports
1) How many students play sports year-round? 3
2) How many students play sports only in the spring and fall? 6
3) How many students play sports only in the winter and fall? 13
4) How many students play sports only in the winter and spring? 2
5) How many students play only one sport? 48
6) How many students play at least two sports? 24
B
7) Suppose you have a standard deck of 52 cards. Let:
a. Describe
A
for this experiment, and find the probability of
B = {7 spades, 7 clubs, 7 hearts, all diamonds} P(A
b. Describe
A
B) = 16/52 or 4/13
for this experiment, and find the probability of
B = {7 diamonds} P(A
.
.
B) = 1/52
8) Suppose a box contains three balls, one red, one blue, and one white. One ball is selected, its
color is observed, and then the ball is placed back in the box. The balls are scrambled, and again, a
ball is selected and its color is observed. What is the sample space of the experiment?
S = {RR, RB, RW, BR, BB, BW, WR, WB, WW}
9) Suppose you have a jar of candies: 4 red, 5 purple and 7 green. Find the following probabilities of
the following events:
Selecting a red candy. 1/4
Selecting a purple candy. 5/16
Selecting a green or red candy. 11/16
Selecting a yellow candy. 0
Selecting any color except a green candy. 9/16
Find the odds of selecting a red candy. 7/9
Find the odds of selecting a purple or green candy. 9/7
10) What is the sample space for a single spin of a spinner with red, blue, yellow and green sections
spinner? {red, blue, yellow, green}
What is the sample space for 2 spins of the first spinner? {RR, RB, RY, RG, BR, BB, BY, BG, YR, YB,
YY, YG, GR, GB, GY, GG}
If the spinner is equally likely to land on each color, what is the probability of landing on red in one
spin? 1/4
What is the probability of landing on a primary color in one spin? 3/4
What is the probability of landing on green both times in two spins? 1/16
11) Consider the throw of a die experiment. Assume we define the following events:
Describe
for this experiment. {1,2,3,4,6}
Describe
for this experiment. {2}
Calculate
and
, assuming the die is fair.
5/6
1/6
PAGES 10-11 KEY
Independent and Dependent Events
1. Determine which of the following are examples of independent or dependent events.
a. Rolling a 5 on one die and rolling a 5 on a second die. independent
b. Choosing a cookie from the cookie jar and choosing a jack from a deck of cards. Indepen.
c. Selecting a book from the library and selecting a book that is a mystery novel. Dependent
d. Going to the beach and bringing an umbrella. Dependent
e. Getting gasoline for your car and getting diesel fuel for your car. dependent
f. Choosing an 8 from a deck of cards, replacing it, and choosing a face card. Indepen.
g. Choosing a jack from a deck of cards and choosing another jack, without replacement. dependent
h. Being lunchtime and eating a sandwich. dependent
2. A coin and a die are tossed. Calculate the probability of getting tails and a 5. 1/12
3. In Tania's homeroom class, 9% of the students were born in March and 40% of the students have a blood
type of O+. What is the probability of a student chosen at random from Tania's homeroom class being born
in March and having a blood type of O+? .036 or 3.6%
4. If a baseball player gets a hit in 31% of his at-bats, what it the probability that the baseball player will get a
hit in 5 at-bats in a row? .0029 or .29%
5. What is the probability of tossing 2 coins one after the other and getting 1 head and 1 tail? 1/4
6. 2 cards are chosen from a deck of cards. The first card is replaced before choosing the second card. What is
the probability that they both will be clubs? 1/16
7. 2 cards are chosen from a deck of cards. The first card is replaced before choosing the second card. What is
the probability that they both will be face cards? 9/169
8. If the probability of receiving at least 1 piece of mail on any particular day is 22%, what is the probability of
not receiving any mail for 3 days in a row? P(not receiving mail) = 1 - .22 = .78. P(no mail for 3 days) =
(.78)(.78)(.78) = .475 or 47.5%
9. Johnathan is rolling 2 dice and needs to roll an 11 to win the game he is playing. What is the probability that
Johnathan wins the game? 2/6 x 1/6 = 1/18
10. Thomas bought a bag of jelly beans that contained 10 red jelly beans, 15 blue jelly beans, and 12 green jelly
beans. What is the probability of Thomas reaching into the bag and pulling out a blue or green jelly bean and
then reaching in again and pulling out a red jelly bean? Assume that the first jelly bean is not replaced. 27/37
x 10/36 = 15/74
11. For question 10, what if the order was reversed? In other words, what is the probability of Thomas reaching
into the bag and pulling out a red jelly bean and then reaching in again and pulling out a blue or green jelly
bean without replacement? 10/37 x 27/36 = 15/74; same
12. What is the probability of drawing 2 face cards one after the other from a standard deck of cards without
replacement? 12/52 x 11/51 = 11/221
13. There are 3 quarters, 7 dimes, 13 nickels, and 27 pennies in Jonah's piggy bank. If Jonah chooses 2 of the
coins at random one after the other, what is the probability that the first coin chosen is a nickel and the
second coin chosen is a quarter? Assume that the first coin is not replaced. 13/50 x 3/49 = 39/2450 or .016
14. For question 13, what is the probability that neither of the 2 coins that Jonah chooses are dimes? Assume
that the first coin is not replaced. 43/50 x 42/49 = 129/175
15. Jenny bought a half-dozen doughnuts, and she plans to randomly select 1 doughnut each morning and eat it
for breakfast until all the doughnuts are gone. If there are 3 glazed, 1 jelly, and 2 plain doughnuts, what is
the probability that the last doughnut Jenny eats is a jelly doughnut? 5/6 x 4/5 x 3/4 x 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 = 1/6
16. Steve will draw 2 cards one after the other from a standard deck of cards without replacement. What is the
probability that his 2 cards will consist of a heart and a diamond? 13/52 x 13/51 = 13/204
PAGES 14-15 KEY
Mutually Exclusive and Inclusive Events
1. 2 dice are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining a sum equal to 6? 5/36
2.
2 dice are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining a sum less than 6? 10/36 or 5/18
3.
2 dice are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining a sum of at least 6? 26/36 or 13/18
4.
Thomas bought a bag of jelly beans that contained 10 red jelly beans, 15 blue jelly beans, and 12 green jelly beans. What is the
probability of Thomas reaching into the bag and pulling out a blue or green jelly bean? 27/37
5.
A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that the card chosen is a heart or spade? Are
these events mutually exclusive? ½; yes
6.
3 coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability of getting 3 heads or 3 tails? Are these events mutually exclusive? 2/8
or ¼; yes
7.
In question 6, what is the probability of getting 3 heads and 3 tails when tossing the 3 coins simultaneously? 0
8.
Are randomly choosing a person who is left-handed and randomly choosing a person who is right-handed mutually exclusive
events? Explain your answer. Answers will vary; Most will say yes because people are either left handed or right handed, but
some may say no because some people are ambidextrous.
9.
Suppose 2 events are mutually exclusive events. If one of the events is randomly choosing a boy from the freshman class of a high
school, what could the other event be? Explain your answer. Randomly choosing a girl from the freshman class
10. Consider a sample set as
. Event
is the multiples of 4, while event
multiples of 5. What is the probability that a number chosen at random will be from both
and
is the
?
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) = 5/10 x 2/10 = 1/10
11. For question 10, what is the probability that a number chosen at random will be from either
or
?
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = 5/10 + 2/10 – 1/10 = 6/10 or 3/5
12. Jack is a student in Bluenose High School. He noticed that a lot of the students in his math class were also in his chemistry class.
In fact, of the 60 students in his grade, 28 students were in his math class, 32 students were in his chemistry class, and 15 students
were in both his math class and his chemistry class. He decided to calculate what the probability was of selecting a student at
random who was either in his math class or his chemistry class, but not both. Draw a Venn diagram and help Jack with his
calculation.
Class
Math
Chemistry
13
15
17
15
13. Brenda did a survey of the students in her classes about whether they liked to get a candy bar or a new math pencil as their reward
for positive behavior. She asked all 71 students she taught, and 32 said they would like a candy bar, 25 said they wanted a new
pencil, and 4 said they wanted both. If Brenda were to select a student at random from her classes, what is the probability that the
student chosen would want:
a.
a candy bar or a pencil? 32/71 + 25/71 – 4/71 = 53/71
b.
neither a candy bar nor a pencil? 18/71
14. A card is chosen at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that the card chosen is a heart or a face
card? Are these events mutually inclusive? 13/52 + 12/52 – 3/52 = 22/52 or 11/26; yes
15. What is the probability of choosing a number from 1 to 10 that is greater than 5 or even? 5/10 + 5/10 – 3/10 = 7/10
16. A bag contains 26 tiles with a letter on each, one tile for each letter of the alphabet. What is the probability of reaching into
the bag and randomly choosing a tile with one of the letters in the word ENGLISH on it or randomly choosing a tile with a
vowel on it? 7/26 + 5/26 – 2/26 = 10/26 or 5/13
17. Are randomly choosing a teacher and randomly choosing a father mutually inclusive events? Explain your answer. Yes, some
teachers are also fathers.
18. Suppose 2 events are mutually inclusive events. If one of the events is passing a test, what could the other event be? Explain
your answer. Answers will vary. One answer could be getting an A on the test.
PAGES 19-20 KEY
Conditional Probability
1. Compete the following table using sums from rolling two dice. Us e the table to answer questions 2-5.
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
6
2
3
4
5
6
7
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
10
6
7
8
9
10
11
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2.
2 fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum is even given that the first die that is rolled is a 2? 1/2
3.
2 fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum is even given that the first die rolled is a 5? 1/2
4.
2 fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum is odd given that the first die rolled is a 5? 1/2
5.
Steve and Scott are playing a game of cards with a standard deck of playing cards. Steve deals Scott a black king. What is the
probability that Scott’s second card will be a red card? 26/51
6.
Sandra and Karen are playing a game of cards with a standard deck of playing cards. Sandra deals Karen a red seven. What is the
probability that Karen’s second card will be a black card?
7.
26/51
Donna discusses with her parents the idea that she should get an allowance. She says that in her class, 55% of her classmates
receive an allowance for doing chores, and 25% get an allowance for doing chores and are good to their parents. Her mom asks
Donna what the probability is that a classmate will be good to his or her parents given that he or she receives an allowance for
doing chores. What should Donna's answer be? .25/.55 = 45.5%
8.
At a local high school, the probability that a student speaks English and French is 15%. The probability that a student speaks
French is 45%. What is the probability that a student speaks English, given that the student speaks French? .15/.45 = 33.3%
9.
On a game show, there are 16 questions: 8 easy, 5 medium-hard, and 3 hard. If contestants are given questions randomly, what is
the probability that the first two contestants will get easy questions? P(2nd is easy 1st is easy) = 1/2
10. On the game show above, what is the probability that the first contestant will get an easy question and the second contestant will
get a hard question? P(2nd is hard 1st is easy) = 1/5
11. Figure 2.2 shows the counts of earned degrees for several colleges on the East Coast. The level of degree and the
gender of the degree recipient were tracked. Row & Column totals are included.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected degree recipient is a female? 714/1375 = 51.9%
b. What is the probability that a randomly chosen degree recipient is a man? 661/1375 = 48.1%
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected degree recipient is a woman, given that they
received a Master's Degree? 128/293 = 43.7%
d. For a randomly selected degree recipient, what is P(Bachelor's Degree|Male)? 438/661 = 66.3%
12. Animals on the endangered species list are given in the table below by type of animal and whether it is domestic or foreign to the
United States. Complete the table and answer the following questions.
Mammals
Birds
Reptiles
Amphibians
Total
United States
63
78
14
10
165
Foreign
251
175
64
8
498
Total
314
253
78
18
663
An endangered animal is selected at random. What is the probability that it is:
a. a bird found in the United States? 78/663 = 11.8%
b.
foreign or a mammal? 498/663 + 314/663 – 251/663 = 84.6%
c.
a bird given that it is found in the United States? 14/165 = 8.5%
d.
a bird given that it is foreign? 175/498 = 35.1%
PAGES 25 KEY
Permutations and Combinations
For 1-5, find the number of permutations.
1.
20
2.
3024
3.
55,440
4.
How many ways can you plant a rose bush, a lavender bush and a hydrangea bush in a row? 6
5.
How many ways can you pick a president, a vice president, a secretary and a treasurer out of 28 people for student council?
491,400
For 6-10, find the probabilities.
6. What is the probability that a randomly generated arrangement of the letters A,E,L, Q and U will result in spelling the word
EQUAL? 120
7.
What is the probability that a randomly generated 3-letter arrangement of the letters in the word SPIN ends with the letter N? 0.5
8.
A bag contains ten chips numbered 0 through 9. Two chips are drawn randomly from the bag and laid down in the order they
were drawn. What is the probability that the 2-digit number formed is divisible by 3? 33/10P2 = 11/30
9.
A prepaid telephone calling card comes with a randomly selected 4-digit PIN, using the digits 1 through 9 without repeating any
digits. What is the probability that the PIN for a card chosen at random does not contain the number 7? (8*7*6*5)/9P4 = 5/9
10. Janine makes a playlist of 8 songs and has her computer randomly shuffle them. If one song is by Little Bow Wow, what is the
probability that this song will play first? 1/8
For 11-13, calculate the number of combinations:
11.
70
12.
462
13.
190
For 14-18, a town lottery requires players to choose three different numbers from the numbers 1 through 36.
14. How many different combinations are there? 7140
15. What is the probability that a player’s numbers match all three numbers chosen by the computer? 1/7140
16. What is the probability that two of a player’s numbers match the numbers chosen by the computer? 1/50,979,600
17. What is the probability that one of a player’s numbers matches the numbers chosen by the computer? 1/12
18. What is the probability that none of a player’s numbers match the numbers chosen by the computer? 31/34
19. Looking at the odds that you came up with in question 14, devise a sensible payout plan for the lottery—in other words, how big
should the prizes be for players who match 1, 2, or all 3 numbers? Assume that tickets cost $1. Don’t forget to take into account
the following:
a.
The town uses the lottery to raise money for schools and sports clubs.
b.
Selling tickets costs the town a certain amount of money.
c.
If payouts are too low, nobody will play!
Answers will vary.
PAGES 26-30 KEY
Investigation: Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Part 1: Theoretical Probability
Probability is the chance or likelihood of an event occurring. We will study two types of probability, theoretical and experimental.
Theoretical Probability: the probability of an event is the ratio or the number of favorable outcomes to the total possible outcomes.
P(Event) =
Number or favorable outcomes
Total possible outcomes
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes. For example, the sample space of tossing a coin is {Heads, Tails} because these are
the only two possible outcomes. Theoretical probability is based on the set of all possible outcomes, or the sample space.
1. List the sample space for rolling a six-sided die (remember you are listing a set, so you should use brackets {} ):
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Find the following probabilities:
P(2)
1/6
P(3 or 6) 1/3
P(1,2,3,4,5, or 6) 1
2.
3.
4.
P(8)
P(odd)
1/2
P(not a 4)
5/6
0
List the sample space for tossing two coins:
{(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}
Find the following probabilities:
P(two heads)
1/4
P(one head and one tail)
P(all tails)
P(no tails)
1/4
1/2
P(head, then tail) 1/4
1/4
Complete the sample space for tossing two six-sided dice:
{(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Find the following probabilities:
P(a 1 and a 4)
1/18
P(a 1, then a 4)
1/36
P(sum of 8) 5/36
P(sum of 12)
P(doubles)
1/6
P(sum of 15) 0
1/36
When would you expect the probability of an event occurring to be 1, or 100%? Describe an event whose probability of
occurring is 1.
Any event that will definitely happen will have a probability of 1. Ex: rolling a 1,2,3,4,5,or 6 on die.
5.
When would you expect the probability of an event occurring to be 0, or 0%? Describe an event whose probability of
occurring is 0.
Any event that cannot happen will have a probability of 0. Ex: rolling an 8 on a six-sided die.
Part 2: Experimental Probability
Experimental Probability: the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials.
P(Event) =
Number or times the event occurs
Total number of trials
1. Do you think that theoretical and experimental probabilities will be the same for a certain event occurring? Explain your
answer.
Answers will vary. At this point, some students may say that they will be the same. Actually, the experimental probabilities get
closer to the theoretical probabilities as the number of trials increases.
2.
Roll a six-sided die and record the number on the die. Repeat this 9 more times
Number on Die
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total
Tally
Frequency
10
Based on your data, find the following experimental probabilities:
P(2)
P(3 or 6)
P(odd)
P(not a 4)
Answers will vary for the rest of this section. It will be based on the actual trials.
How do these compare to the theoretical probabilities in Part 1? Why do you think they are the same or different?
3.
Record your data on the board (number on die and frequency only). Compare your data with other groups in your class.
Explain what you observe about your data compared to the other groups. Try to make at least two observations.
4.
Combine the frequencies of all the groups in your class with your data and complete the following table:
Number on Die
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total
Frequency
Based on the whole class data, find the following experimental probabilities:
P(2)
P(3 or 6)
P(odd)
P(not a 4)
How do these compare to your group’s probabilities? How do these compare to the theoretical probabilities from Part 1?
5.
What do you think would happen to the experimental probabilities if there were 200 trials? 500 trials? 1000 trials? 1,000,000
trials? As the number of trials increases we should see the experimental probabilities approach the theoretical probabilities.
On your graphing calculator, go to APPS and open Prob Sim. Press any key and then select 2: Roll dice.
Click Roll. Notice that there will be a bar on the graph at the right. What does this represent?
Now push +1 nine more times. Push the right arrow to see the frequency of each number on the die. How many times did you
get a 1?______ A 2?________ A 5?
Now press the +1, +10, and +50 buttons until you have rolled 100 times. Based on the data, find the following experimental
probabilities:
P(2)
P(3 or 6)
P(odd)
P(not a 4)
Press the +50 button until you have rolled 1000 times. Based on the data, find the following experimental probabilities:
P(2)
P(3 or 6)
P(odd)
P(not a 4)
Press the +50 button until you have rolled 5000 times. Based on the data, find the following experimental probabilities:
P(2)
P(3 or 6)
P(odd)
P(not a 4)
What can you expect to happen to the experimental probabilities in the long run? In other words, as the number of trials
increases, what happens to the experimental probabilities?
As the number of trials increases, the experimental probability should approach the theoretical probability
Why can there be differences between experimental and theoretical probabilities in general?
Theoretical probabilities tell us what we can expect to happen in the long run. Experimental probability is dependent on the
number of trials conducted. Also, just because we know how often something should occur, that does not mean it actually
will occur.
Part 3: Which one do I use?
So when do we use theoretical probability or experimental probability? Theoretical probability is always the best choice, when it can
be calculated. But sometimes it is not possible to calculate theoretical probabilities because we cannot possible know all of the
possible outcomes. In these cases, experimental probability is appropriate. For example, if we wanted to calculate the probability of a
student in the class having green as his or her favorite color, we could not use theoretical probability. We would have to collect data
on the favorite colors of each member of the class and use experimental probability.
Determine whether theoretical or experimental probability would be appropriate for each of the following. Explain your reasoning:
1. What is the probability of someone tripping on the stairs today between first and second periods?
Experimental. We would need to collect data on the total number of students on the stairs between first and second period
and how many of those students tripped.
2.
What is the probability of rolling a 3 on a six-sided die, then tossing a coin and getting a head?
Theoretical. We could list the sample space and find the probability based on the possible outcomes.
3.
What is the probability that a student will get 4 of 5 true false questions correct on a quiz?
Theoretical. We could list the sample space and find the probability based on the possible outcomes.
4.
What is the probability that a student in class is wearing exactly four buttons on his or her clothing today?
Experimental. We would have to ask each student how many buttons he or she is wearing to find the probability since we
could not possible know all the possible outcomes.
PAGES 31-32 KEY
Probability Homework: Experimental vs. Theoretical
Name _____________________________________
1) A baseball collector checked 350 cards in case on the shelf and found that 85 of them were damaged. Find the experimental
probability of the cards being damaged. Show your work.
85/350 = .24
2) Jimmy rolls a number cube 30 times. He records that the number 6 was rolled 9 times. According to Jimmy's records, what is the
experimental probability of rolling a 6? Show your work.
9/30 = .3
3) John, Phil, and Mike are going to a bowling match. Suppose the boys randomly sit in the 3 seats next to each other and one of the
seats is next to an aisle. What is the probability that John will sit in the seat next to the aisle?
1/3
4) In Mrs. Johnson's class there are 12 boys and 16 girls. If Mrs. Johnson draws a name at random, what is the probability that the
name will be that of a boy?
12/28 = .43
5) Antonia has 9 pairs of white socks and 7 pairs of black socks. Without looking, she pulls a black sock from the drawer. What is
the probability that the next sock she pulls out will also be black?
13/31 = .42 (There were 32 socks to start with, but one black sock was removed. That leaves 31 socks, 13 of which are black.)
6) Lenny tosses a nickel 50 times. It lands heads up 32 times and tails 18 times. What is the experimental probability that the nickel
lands tails?
18/50 = .36
7) A car manufacturer randomly selected 5,000 cars from their production line and found that 85 had some defects. If 100,000 cars
are produced by this manufacturer, how many cars can be expected to have defects?
85/5000 = .017; .017*100,000 = 1700 cars can be expected to have defects.
(Source: http://www.lessonplanet.com/teachers/worksheet-probability-and-statistics-probability-of-an-outcome)
The following advertisement appeared in the Sunday paper:
Chew DentaGum!
4 out of 5 dentists surveyed agree that
chewing DentaGum after eating reduces
the risk of tooth decay! So enjoy a piece of
delicious DentaGum and get fewer cavities!
10 dentists were surveyed.
8) According to the ad, what is the probability that a dentist chosen at random does not agree that chewing DentaGum after meals
reduces the risk of tooth decay?
1/5 or .2
9) Is this probability theoretical or experimental? How do you know?
Experimental because it is based on a survey or data collected.
10) Do you think that the this advertisement is trying to influence the consumer to buy DentaGum? Why or why not?
Yes, the fine print states that only 100 dentists were surveyed. The results may be different if a larger sample was surveyed.
11) What could be done to make this advertisement more believable?
The sample of dentists could be made larger. 10 dentists does not give a representative sample of all dentists. The larger the sample,
the more accurate the probabilities will be.