Download Ch5 Probability

Ch5 Probability
_____________ is a measure of the likelihood of a random phenomenon or chance behavior. Probability
describes the long-term proportion with which a certain outcome will occur in situations with short-term
uncertainty.
If we flip a coin 100 times and compute the proportion of heads observed after each toss of the coin, what will
the proportion approach?
The Law of Large Numbers
As the number of repetitions of a probability experiment increases, the proportion with which a certain
outcome is observed gets closer to the probability of the outcome.
Ch 5.1 Probability Rule
Objective A : Sample Spaces and Events
Experiment – any activity that leads to well-defined results called outcomes.
Outcome – the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
Sample space, S – the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Event, E – a subset of the sample space
Simple event, ei – an event with one outcome is called a simple event.
Compound event – consists of two or more outcomes.
Example 1: A die is tossed one time.
(a) List the elements of the sample space S.
(b) List the elements of the event consisting of a number that is greater than 4.
Example 2: A coin is tossed twice. List the elements of the sample space S, and list the elements of the event
consisting of at least one head.
1
Objective B: Requirements for Probabilities
1. Each probability must lie on between 0 and 1. (0  P(E)  1)
2. The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S equals 1. (  P(ei )  1)
If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.
If an event is a certainty, the probability of the event is 1.
An unusual event is an event that has a low probability of occurring. Typically, an event with a
probability less than 0.05 is considered as unusual.
Probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to three decimal places.
Example 1: A probability experiment is conducted. Which of these can be considered a probability of an
outcome?
(a) 2/5
(b) -0.28
(c) 1.09
Example 2: Why is the following not a probability model?
Color
Red
Green
Yellow
Example 3: Given:
Find:
*
( )
( )
Probability
0.28
0.56
0.37
+
( )
and ( )
2
Objective C: Calculating Probabilities
P( E ) 
N (E)
N (S )
Example 1: The age distribution of employees for this college is shown below:
Age
Under 20
20 – 29
30 – 39
40 – 49
50 and over
Number of Employees
25
48
32
15
10
If an employee is selected at random, find the probability that he or she is in the following
age groups
(a) Between 30 and 39 years of age
(b) Under 20 or over 49 years of age
Example 2: Let the sample space be S  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 . Suppose the outcomes are equally likely.
(a) Compute the probability of the event F  5,9 .
(b) Compute the probability of the event E = "an odd number."
Example 3: Two dice are tossed. Find the probability that the sum of two dice is greater than 8?
3
Example 3: If one card is drawn from a deck, find the probability of getting
(a) a club
(b) a 4 and a club
Example 4: Three equally qualified runners, Mark, Bill, and Alan, run a 100-meter sprint, and the
order of finish is recorded.
(a) Give a sample space S.
(b) What is the probability that Mark will finish last?
Ch 5.2 The Addition Rules and Complements
Objective A: Addition Rule for Disjoint (Mutually Exclusive) Events
Event A and B are disjoint (mutually exclusive) if they have no outcomes in common.
Addition Rule for Disjoint Events
If E and F are disjoint events, then P(E or F )  P(E)  P(F ) .
Example 1:
A standard deck of cards contains 52 cards. One card is randomly selected
from the deck. Compute the probability of randomly selecting a two or three
from a deck of cards.
4
Objective B: General Addition Rule
The General Addition Rule
For any two events E and F , P(E or F )  P(E)  P(F )  P(E and F ) .
Example 1:
A standard deck of cards contains 52 cards. One card is randomly selected from
the deck. Compute the probability of randomly selecting a two or club from a deck
of cards.
Objective C: Complement Rule
Complement Rule
If E represents any event and Ec represents the complement of E , then P(EC )  1 P(E) .
Example 1: The chance of raining tomorrow is 70%. What is the probability that it will not rain tomorrow?
Example 2: In a large department store, there are 2 managers, 4 department heads, 16 clerks,
and 4 stock persons. If a person is selected at random,
(a) find the probability that the person is a clerk or a manager;
(b) find the probability that the person is not a clerk.
5
Example 3: A probability experiment is conducted in which the sample spaceof the experiment
is S  1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 .
Let event E  2,3,5,6,7 , event F  5,6,7,8 , and event G  9,11
(a) List the outcome in E and F . Are E and F mutually exclusive?
(b) Are F and G mutually exclusive? Explain.
(c) List the outcome in E or F . Find P(E or F ) by counting the number of outcomes
in E or F .
(d) Determine P(E or F ) using the General Addition Rule.
(e) List the outcomes in EC . Find P( EC ) by counting the number of outcomes in EC .
(f) Determine P( EC ) using the Complement Rule.
6
Objective D: Contingency Table
A contingency table relates two categories of data. It is also called a two-way table which consists of
a row variable and a column variable. Each box inside the table is called a cell.
Example 1: In a certain geographic region, newspapers are classified as being published daily morning,
daily evening, and weekly. Some have a comics section and other do not.
The distribution is shown here.
Have comics
Section
Morning
Evening
Weekly
Yes
2
3
1
No
3
4
2
If a newspaper is selected at random, find these probabilities.
(a) The newspaper is a weekly publication.
(b) The newspaper is a daily morning publication or has comics.
Ch 5.3
Independence and the Multiplication Rule
Objective A: Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of event E does not affect the probability of event F .
Two events are dependent if the occurrence of event E affects the probability of event F .
Example 1: Determine whether the events E and F are independent or dependent. Justify
your answer.
(a)
E : The battery in your cell phone is dead.
F : The battery in your calculator is dead.
(b)
E : You are late to class.
F : Your car runs out of gas.
7
Objective B: Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
If E and F are independent events, then P(E and F )  P(E)  P(F )
Example 1: If 36% of college students are underweight, find the probability that if three college
students are selected at random, all will be underweight.
Example 2: If 25% of U.S. federal prison inmates are not U.S. citizens, find the probability that
two randomly selected federal prison inmates will be U.S. citizens.
Example 3: According to the Department of Health and Human Services, 30% of 18- to 25-year-olds have
some form of mental illness.
(a) What is the probability two randomly selected 18- to 25-year-olds have some form of
mental illness?
(b) What is the probability six randomly selected 18- to 25-year-olds have some form of
mental illness?
(d) Would it be unusual that among four randomly selected 18- to 25-year-olds, none has
some form of mental illness?
8
Ch 5.4 Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Rule
Objective A: Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Rule
A1. Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events
If E and F are dependent events, then P(E and F )  P(E)  P(F | E) .
The probability of E and F is the probability of event E occurring times the probability of event F
occurring, given the occurrence of event E .
Example 1: A box has 5 red balls and 2 white balls. If two balls are randomly selected (one after the
other), what is the probability that they both are red?
(a) With replacement
(b) Without replacement
Example 2: Three cards are drawn from a deck without replacement. Find the probability that all
are jacks.
A2. Conditional Probability
If E and F are any two events, then P( F E ) 
P( E and F ) N ( E and F )

.
P( E )
N (E)
The probability of event F occurring, given the occurrence of event E , is found by dividing the
probability of E and F by the probability of E .
9
Example 1: At a local Country Club, 65% of the members play bridge and swim, and 72% play bridge.
If a member is selected at random, find the probability that the member swims, given that
the member plays bridge.
Objective B: Application
Example 1: Eighty students in a school cafeteria were asked if they favored a ban on smoking in the
cafeteria. The results of the survey are shown in the table.
Class
Favor
Oppose
No opinion
Freshman
15
27
8
Sophomore
23
5
2
If a student is selected at random, find these probabilities.
(a) The student is a freshman or favors the ban.
(b) Given that the student favors the ban, the student is a sophomore.
10