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Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: an analysis based on the German bank lending survey Barno Blaes Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies No 31/2011 Discussion Papers represent the authors’ personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff. Editorial Board: Klaus Düllmann Frank Heid Heinz Herrmann Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt am Main Tel +49 69 9566-0 Telex within Germany 41227, telex from abroad 414431 Please address all orders in writing to: Deutsche Bundesbank, Press and Public Relations Division, at the above address or via fax +49 69 9566-3077 Internet http://www.bundesbank.de Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. ISBN 978-3–86558–7– (Printversion) ISBN 978-3–86558–7– (Internetversion) Abstract !"#$ % &''( &')'% * + * ! * ! Keywords: "#$ * ** * JEL-Classification: ,&-* -'* .)*&) Non-technical summary * * * / 0 + 1 * a priori #" 2 3 * 1* * 4 * ! "# $ 5"#$6 % "#$ &''- 7) &')' 7& 4 5&''8'(6* 9 5&''(7-:&')'7)6* + *!* Nichttechnische Zusammenfassung 9; +<=> ?#@ * 3* " > ? > < 3 < 1 > " " 4 4 A> < B > "< C B 3 C $1 *" @B A< C 4 a priori * A< " ; 9 # " 4@ 4@ B B > <>< ? > @ B C 4 B @ D *E B B @4< B > = C 3 * >@> 3 >> *>" " 3 $< > 4 "# $ 5"#$6"4 " > 3 +< B 3 ? *A"#$9 " > @ B ; &''-7)&')'7& 3$>*B + 5&''8'(6 @ +< B 9 F @ 5&''(7-:&')'7)6 3 @ B 4 3 > <>< * *=> #@ ,%G G$ ) 9 ) & 3 . - 2 ( H A)H H) )H H& 7 )I . 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"#$ * * "#$ ! * 9* )&5= )6 ! &''87-&''(7) ! * * : " * I 4 "#$" 5&''.6*3" 5&')'6 8 = *)4O "#$ JPPPPPQ . &''($ &''(* * * * 5&''(7H &')' 7)6 5&')'7&6 Figure 1: Relative importance of the factors (left scale) determining bank credit standards (right scale) in Germany8 Cost of funds and balance sheet constraints Pressure from competition Perception of risk Standards 60.0 50.0 40.0 100 30.0 50 20.0 0 0.0 10.0 G ,percentages 150 -10.0 -20.0 -50 -30.0 -40.0 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 4.Vj. 2011 1.Vj. 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 2010 1.Vj. 4.Vj. 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 2009 1.Vj. 4.Vj. 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 2008 1.Vj. 4.Vj. 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 2007 1.Vj. 4.Vj. 3.Vj. 2.Vj. 2006 1.Vj. -100 &- 5&''8&''(64 *+ ! / 0 + 4 /0 ! * * * / 0 9 K I 4 5 6, /, 0 / !0*/! 0* /! 0O /F 0 / 0*/ 0*/ 0O /F 0 / 0*/ 0*/ 0 * / 0 / 0 5&H 6 / 0 5)K 6 / 0 / 0 * 5&''8&''(6*- J /0 4 * 5H6 % * "#$ * * 5&''8&''(6* 5 + !6 ( = * ! "#$ 3 ! + )' ! 2=9 2 * *!/ 05 6 ( G! ! ! $ )4 )' 4 * 2=9 1 * 53"5&''I6* &I&861* 53" 5&')'66 8 * )) "#$&(*)& R &''K 4 * )H "#$ "#$ R &''-4 * * &I5-&( 6? "#$ !" )) / 0 * + + 9 +: 56:9 +* / 0 K 4= &* "#$56 * * "#$)& 4 R &''- * &''- &')'* -8K5HI86 56 - 2%3 #=A42 %AB 9 * )H*%#$* )- ! * J 5)6 ΔLoansit = α i + β (L ) BLSit + γ (L )X (i )t + ε it , ΔLoansit i t BLS it "#$ i t*X(i)t * 3F 5 Δ ln of real GDP6* 5 Δ ln of real insolvency claims6 * / 0 5 )&= * * &''' 5 6 G * )- %#$ 5 * 6 * *= * 5&''-6*&K-&(- ( i t)* 5 i t 5 6 t6 $ "#$ * )H* * 5)6 J ΔLoans it = α i + β1 (L ) Standards tightened it + β 2 (L ) Standards eased it 5&6 + β 3 (L ) Demand decreased it + β 4 (L ) Demand increased it + γ (L ) X (i )t + ε it , * * Standards tightened it ) i t5 / 0 /0O(6' O Demand decreased it ) i ! t 5 / 0/ 06' β1 , β 3 β 2 , β 4 9 * 5&6 "#$ = 53 5&')'6*1B$N 5&')'66* &''8 &''( ) ' )H 4 5 $&6* "#$ + 5 /0 / 0 /06* 5 / 0 / 0* / 0*/0 / 06 )' 4 # " * 5&6 "#$ + 5"#$ *&64 $&*"#$ J 5)6 cost of funds and balance sheet constraints * : O 5&6 pressure from competition * O 5-6 banks’ perception of risk * 5 )6 9 * $ 5&''&6 * ). *bank-related determinants * * banks’ perception of risk : = pressure from competition / 0 5 &6 4 / 0* 4= -* 4* &''8* ! ! * &''K* ?$ # " $ ). 4 * 56 1 * )) * * * 9 > &''( 7&* :&')'7& # $%$$$ $& '* !"#$"##$ #'##($"##$ %&##"##$ "(&$ *5= H6$ * &''K7&* &''(7)5 64 * * * )I G * )& + $%$$$ ', )#$"$&$$%##*#( #$$&#"&$ #"($&#%"#&#$$$ + )K? *5&6 J ΔLoans it = α i + β1 (L ) Standards tightened it + β 2 (L ) Standards eased it + β 3 (L ) Demand decreased it + β 4 (L ) Demand increased it 5-6 + β 5 (L ) Perception of risk factorit + β 6 (L ) Bank − related supply factorit + γ (L ) X (i )t + ε it , 2 * )8 G * G / 0 )K B 2 % 5B2%62 $452$46* )- H A $?#$ H) 2F9A9,4# D93 G, %#$5 6 H49 * 4 H* * 9 5)6* Standards tightened it * * "#$ t )-I t+35 6 5 )-I )'- 6 "#$ 5 Standards easedit * Demand decreased it Demand increased it 6 4 5 3F* 6* 9 * 3F * 5 6 5 6 9&5&*H6*/ 05 i t6 ) "#$ J )H + *4 * * )( $- 5 -* H6 "#$ " * + "#$ $ 5HI46&' 5 H I* H6 & &) ,HI5H6 "#$&& 5 6 " * )(G/ 0* +* &' 4 $. &) + "#$ / 0 "#$* $"#$ 5 $ .6* * && 9* * 5)6 ). = * 5Standards tightened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ournal of Monetary Economics51*H.)H8) *15&''-6* 4*GL F 1 1*1$5&''H6*G J *Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 1(3)*-K8H'K 1*1$,B$N 5&')'6* T* F $ G)&I&* , " && 1 *G*1<*% @ 5&')'6*# J 4 *, $ F G--(. 2*1A*$ *=* > * 2#5&'))6*9 D4A * F G))&'*= A "F A*A1L5&''(6* 9T*Applied Economics 1-16 $*R125&''86*9 *"*$= * GL *F P4 ?*15&''.6* TA *Journal of Monetary Economics52*-K)H)( &- 24 4. Over the past three months, how has the demand for loans or credit lines to enterprises changed at your bank, apart from normal seasonal fluctuations? 2.C. Perception of risk - Expectations regarding general economic activity - Industry or firm-specific outlook - Risk on the collateral demanded - Competition from other banks - Competition from non-banks - Competition from market financing 2.B. Pressure from competition - Costs related to your bank’s capital position - Your bank’s ability to access market financing - Your bank’s liquidity position 2.A. Costs of funds and balance sheet constraints 1=“Decreased considerably” 1=“Contributed considerably to tightening” 2. Over the past three months, how have the following factors affected your bank’s credit standards as applied to the approval of loans or credit lines to enterprises (as described in question 1)? 2=“Decreased somewhat” 2=“Contributed somewhat to tightening” 2=“Tightened somewhat” 3=“Remained basically unchanged” 3=“Contributed to basically unchanged standards” 3=“Remained basically unchanged” Table 1: BLS questionnaire, questions 1, 2 and 4. 1=“Tightened considerably” G39V 1. Over the past three months, how have your bank’s credit standards as applied to the approval of loans or credit lines to enterprises changed? 4FF 4=“Increased somewhat” 4=“Contributed somewhat to easing” 4=“Eased somewhat” 4=“Increased considerably” 4=“Contributed considerably to easing” 5=“Eased considerably” 0=“Not applicable (NA)“ 25 7 8 Your ability to access market financing Your liquidity position 0 0 Competition from non-banks Competition from market financing 2 Risk on the collateral demanded 5 11 Industry or firm-specific outlook 4. Loan demand 12 Expectations regarding economic activity 2.C. Perception of risk 0 Competition from other banks 2.B. Pressure from competition 2 Your bank’s capital position 2.A. Costs of funds and balance sheet constraints 2 1.15% 0.46% 2.54% 2.76% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.85% 1.66% 0.46% 0.46% 1=“Tightened/ decreased considerably” 102 46 68 66 1 2 6 14 34 42 53 23.50% 10.67% 15.70% 15.21% 0.26% 0.53% 1.50% 3.24% 8.08% 9.68% 12.21% 2=“Tightened/ decreased somewhat” 243 382 334 326 382 368 353 391 373 390 362 55.99% 88.63% 77.14% 75.12% 99.48% 97.87% 88.03% 90.51% 88.60% 89.63% 83.41% 3=“Remained basically unchanged” 80 1 20 29 1 6 41 18 7 1 17 18.43% 0.23% 4.62% 6.68% 0.26% 1.60% 10.22% 4.17% 1.66% 0.23% 3.92% 4=“Eased/ increased somewhat” 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5=“Eased/ increased considerably” 434 431 433 434 384 376 401 432 421 435 434 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total observations Table 2: BLS responses to questions 1, 2 and 4: descriptive statistics for the whole period 2002Q4-2010Q2 (frequency of responses and percentages of total responses). 1. Credit standards 26 3 5 Your bank’s ability to access market financing Your bank’s liquidity position 0 0 Competition from non-banks Competition from market financing 0 Risk on the collateral demanded 3 4 Industry or firm-specific outlook 4. Loan demand 4 Expectations regarding general economic activity 2.C. Perception of risk 0 Competition from other banks 2.B. Pressure from competition 0 Your bank’s capital position 2.A. Costs of funds and balance sheet constraints 1 2.14% 0.00% 2.88% 2.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.60% 2.16% 0.00% 0.71% 1=“Tightened/ decreased considerably” 18 12 28 31 0 0 1 11 19 14 25 12.86% 8.63% 20.14% 22.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 7.91% 13.67% 10.00% 17.86% 2=“Tightened/ decreased somewhat” 83 127 103 98 115 127 118 121 117 126 110 59.29% 91.37% 74.10% 70.00% 100.00% 99.22% 90.77% 87.05% 84.17% 90.00% 78.57% 3=“Remained basically unchanged” 34 0 4 7 0 1 11 1 0 0 4 24.29% 0.00% 2.88% 5.00% 0.00% 0.78% 8.46% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 2.86% 4=“Eased/ increased somewhat” 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.72% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5=“Eased/ increased considerably” 140 139 139 140 115 128 130 139 139 140 140 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total observations Table 3: BLS responses to questions 1, 2 and 4: descriptive statistics for the crisis period 2007Q3-2009Q4 (frequency of responses and percentages of total responses). 1. Credit standards Table 4: Loans to non-financial corporations, balanced panel (OLS, entity fixed effects, heteroscedasticity robust estimates). D4A94"# $ Δ ln of real GDP (-2) 5)6 Δ ln(loan) 5&6 5-6 5H6 5.6 5I6 Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) 'H'8MMM 'H))MMM '-I8MM 5')-'6 5')&.6 5')HI6 Δ ln of real insolvency claims (-2) '')'MMM '''(MMM '')'MM 5'''-'6 5'''&(6 5'''--6 Spread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able 5: Loans to non-financial corporations, balanced panel (FGLS, corrected for groupwise heteroscedasticity and panel-specific AR1) D4A94"# $ 5)6 Δ ln(loan) 5-6 Δ ln(loan) 5H6 Δ ln(loan) 5.6 &K 5I6 Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) '-(-MM 'H-(MMM '-(-MM '-8KMM 'H'&MM Δ ln of real GDP (-2) 5')I&6 5')I.6 5')IH6 5')I-6 5')I-6 Δ ln of real insolvency claims (-2) '''IMM '''IMMM '''IMM '''IMMM '''IMM 5'''&.6 5'''&.6 5'''&.6 5'''&H6 5'''&.6 Spread '.)KMMM 'I.-MMM 'I'&MMM 'I8KMMM '8-.MMM 5')K)6 5')()6 5')(.6 5')KK6 5')KK6 $ 5-6 ))8&MMM ))&.MMM '&(( )'&.MM )''HMM 5'H'-6 5'H&K6 5'.I&6 5'H&&6 5'H)(6 $ 5&6 )K.(MMM )K''MMM ).)HMM )&&IM '(8H 5'II(6 5'II.6 5'I8I6 5'IK86 5'8'-6 3 5H6 '8KIMMM 'IK.MM 'IH)M 'I8.MM 'I'KM 5'-'H6 5'-)-6 5'-H'6 5'-)&6 5'-)'6 3 5)6 ))IIMMM )&.IMMM '88(M )'I(MMM ))IKMMM 5'-)K6 5'--I6 5'H-H6 5'-&K6 5'--&6 $ P, 5-6 )K-.MM 5'88H6 $ P, 5&6 -I8( 5-'I&6 3 P, 5H6 'H.K 5'I()6 3 P, 5)6 )'..M 5'I)K6 , 'H.(MM 5')((6 F 5&6 'H'KMM 'I)IMMM 5')8&6 5'&-)6 " 5H6 '&)' ')&' 5')H'6 5').I6 F P, '-&- 5&6 5'-&'6 " )))KMMM P, 5H6 5'&.86 , 'I&8 ).8) '.'& 'IHK '8(8 5'.I86 5))H&6 5'HK.6 5'.H'6 5'.)(6 % -8K -8K -8K -8K -8K G )H )H )H )H )H -' -' -' -' -' & ))I) )).' )-.8 )&&. )HKK MMM['')*MM[''.*M[')$ 5&6 Δ ln(loan) 'H'&MM 5')IH6 '''IMM 5'''&H6 '88)MMM 5')(K6 '--( 5'I'(6 'I-( 5'8'(6 'H(( 5'-H86 '8'. 5'HH.6 )&K' 5'K&'6 H-'5-))K6 ')H5'8'&6 ))-(M 5'I-86 'IH8MMM 5'&-&6 ''-8I 5').H6 '-I5'-&'6 )').MMM 5'&I&6 'I(. 5'HIK6 -8K )H -' )IIH Table 6: Loans to non-financial corporations, balanced panel (OLS, with entity and time fixed effects) 5)6 5&6 5-6 D4A94"# $ Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan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Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) )'&-MM 5'H.)6 )-I)MM 5'I)(6 'I(8MM 5'-))6 )&8KMM 5'.&86 '-'& 5')K.6 ')8H 5'&I'6 5'-)-6 5'--86 ))-HMMM '(88MMM ''-)) 5)&I'6 -8K '&)H )H -' 5'&K-6 '((K 5)&..6 -8K '&-K )H -' 5'&(-6 )'8& 5)-&-6 -8K '&HK )H -' &( Table 7: Loans to non-financial corporations, unbalanced panel (OLS, fixed effects, heteroscedasticity robust estimates) 5)6 5&6 5-6 D4A94"# $ Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) Δ ln(loan) '&IHMM '&8(MM '&.IMM Δ ln of real GDP (-2) 5'))-6 5'))-6 5'))'6 Δ ln of real insolvency claims (-2) '''8MMM '''8MMM '''IMMM 5'''&)6 5'''&)6 5'''&)6 Spread 'I.8MMM '8I)MMM '8K(MMM 5'&'I6 5'&&K6 5'&&86 $ 5-6 )&H-MM ))&-MM '(&'MM 5'H.'6 5'H'H6 5'H)'6 $ 5&6 )-(8M )-&-M )'I( 5'IK-6 5'IHK6 5'K))6 3 5H6 'KI)MMM 'K8IMMM '888MMM 5')K.6 5')(&6 5'&)I6 3 5)6 ).8IMMM )I-8MMM ).)IMMM 5'H'.6 5'H)-6 5'H'&6 , 'I)(MM 5'&&.6 F 5&6 '&88M 5').86 " 5H6 'HI8 5'-.86 , '8'&MMM )8'8M 'KI-MMM 5')K86 5'K-'6 5'&'-6 % HI8 HI8 HI8 A ')'( ')&& ')&& G &I &I &I -' -' -' MMM['')*MM[''.*M[')$ -' The following Discussion Papers have been published since 2010: Series 1: Economic Studies 01 02 2010 2010 Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions Rossana Merola Price, wage and employment response to shocks: evidence from the WDN survey Bertola, Dabusinskas Hoeberichts, Izquierdo, Kwapil Montornès, Radowski 03 2010 Exports versus FDI revisited: Does finance matter? C. M. Buch, I. Kesternich A. Lipponer, M. Schnitzer 04 2010 Heterogeneity in money holdings Ralph Setzer across euro area countries: the role of housing Paul van den Noord Guntram Wolff 05 2010 Loan supply in Germany during the financial crises U. Busch M. Scharnagl, J. Scheithauer 06 2010 Empirical simultaneous confidence regions for path-forecasts Òscar Jordà, Malte Knüppel Massimiliano Marcellino 07 2010 Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances Sandra Eickmeier Boris Hofmann 08 2010 On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates Stefan Reitz Jan C. Ruelke Mark P. Taylor 09 2010 Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area S. Gerlach A. Schulz, G. B. Wolff 10 2010 Trend and cycle features in German residential investment before and after reunification Thomas A. Knetsch 31 11 2010 What can EMU countries’ sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities Niko Dötz during the recent financial crisis? Christoph Fischer Tobias Dümmler Stephan Kienle 12 2010 User costs of housing when households face a credit constraint – evidence for Germany 13 2010 Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times – 14 2010 public measures in support of the financial Stéphanie Marie Stolz sector in the EU and the United States Michael Wedow The discontinuous integration of Western Europe’s heterogeneous market for corporate control from 1995 to 2007 Rainer Frey 15 2010 Bubbles and incentives: Ulf von Kalckreuth a post-mortem of the Neuer Markt in Germany Leonid Silbermann 16 2010 Rapid demographic change and the allocation of public education resources: evidence from East Germany Gerhard Kempkes 17 2010 The determinants of cross-border bank flows to emerging markets – new empirical evidence Sabine Herrmann on the spread of financial crisis Dubravko Mihaljek 18 2010 Government expenditures and unemployment: Eric Mayer, Stéphane Moyen a DSGE perspective Nikolai Stähler 19 2010 NAIRU estimates for Germany: new evidence on the inflation-unemployment trade-off Florian Kajuth 20 2010 Macroeconomic factors and micro-level bank risk 32 Claudia M. Buch Sandra Eickmeier, Esteban Prieto 21 22 23 24 2010 2010 2010 2010 How useful is the carry-over effect for short-term economic forecasting? Karl-Heinz Tödter Deep habits and the macroeconomic effects of government debt Rym Aloui Price-level targeting C. Gerberding when there is price-level drift R. Gerke, F. Hammermann The home bias in equities P. Harms and distribution costs M. Hoffmann, C. Ortseifer 25 2010 Instability and indeterminacy in a simple search and matching model Michael Krause Thomas Lubik 26 2010 Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy M. Kliem, A. Kriwoluzky 27 2010 Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England interest rate decisions Guido Schultefrankenfeld 01 2011 Long-run growth expectations and “global imbalances” M. Hoffmann M. Krause, T. Laubach 02 2011 Robust monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with imperfect interest rate pass-through Rafael Gerke Felix Hammermann 03 04 2011 2011 The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle – evidence from a threshold VAR analysis Anja Baum Gerrit B. Koester Classical time-varying FAVAR models – S. Eickmeier estimation, forecasting and structural analysis W. Lemke, M. Marcellino 33 05 06 07 2011 2011 2011 The changing international transmission of Sandra Eickmeier financial shocks: evidence from a classical time-varying FAVAR Wolfgang Lemke Massimiliano Marcellino FiMod – a DSGE model for Nikolai Stähler fiscal policy simulations Carlos Thomas Portfolio holdings in the euro area – home bias and the role of international, Axel Jochem domestic and sector-specific factors Ute Volz 08 2011 Seasonality in house prices F. Kajuth, T. Schmidt 09 2011 The third pillar in Europe: institutional factors and individual decisions Julia Le Blanc 10 2011 In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking C. M. Buch S. Eickmeier, E. Prieto 11 2011 Fatigue in payment diaries – empirical evidence from Germany Tobias Schmidt Christoph Fischer 12 2011 Currency blocs in the 21st century 13 2011 How informative are central bank assessments Malte Knüppel of macroeconomic risks? Guido Schultefrankenfeld 14 2011 Evaluating macroeconomic risk forecasts Malte Knüppel Guido Schultefrankenfeld 15 2011 Crises, rescues, and policy transmission through international banks Claudia M. Buch Cathérine Tahmee Koch Michael Koetter 16 2011 Substitution between net and gross settlement systems – A concern for financial stability? Ben Craig Falko Fecht 34 17 18 19 20 2011 2011 2011 2011 Recent developments in quantitative models of sovereign default Nikolai Stähler Exchange rate dynamics, expectations, and monetary policy Qianying Chen An information economics perspective D. Hoewer on main bank relationships and firm R&D T. Schmidt, W. Sofka Foreign demand for euro banknotes Nikolaus Bartzsch issued in Germany: estimation using direct approaches Gerhard Rösl Franz Seitz 21 2011 Foreign demand for euro banknotes issued in Germany: estimation using indirect approaches Nikolaus Bartzsch Gerhard Rösl Franz Seitz 22 2011 Using cash to monitor liquidity – implications for payments, currency demand and withdrawal behavior Ulf von Kalckreuth Tobias Schmidt Helmut Stix 23 2011 Home-field advantage or a matter of ambiguity aversion? Local bias among German individual investors Markus Baltzer Oscar Stolper Andreas Walter 24 2011 Monetary transmission right from the start: on the information content of the eurosystem’s main refinancing operations Puriya Abbassi Dieter Nautz Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices Annette Fröhling Kirsten Lommatzsch Detecting multiple breaks in long memory: the case of U.S. inflation Uwe Hassler Barbara Meller 25 26 2011 2011 35 27 28 2011 2011 How do credit supply shocks propagate Sandra Eickmeier internationally? A GVAR approach Tim Ng Reforming the labor market and improving competitiveness: Tim Schwarzmüller an analysis for Spain using FiMod Nikolai Stähler 29 2011 Cross-border bank lending, risk aversion and the financial crisis Cornelia Düwel, Rainer Frey Alexander Lipponer 30 2011 The use of tax havens in exemption regimes Anna Gumpert James R. Hines, Jr. Monika Schnitzer 31 2011 Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: an analysis based on the German bank lending survey 36 Barno Blaes Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 01 02 03 04 2010 2010 2010 2010 Deriving the term structure of banking Stefan Eichler crisis risk with a compound option approach: the case of Kazakhstan Alexander Karmann Dominik Maltritz Recovery determinants of distressed banks: Thomas Kick Regulators, market discipline, Michael Koetter or the environment? Tigran Poghosyan Purchase and redemption decisions of mutual Stephan Jank fund investors and the role of fund families Michael Wedow What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets? Christian Wildmann 05 2010 Bank liquidity creation and risk taking during distress Berger, Bouwman Kick, Schaeck 06 2010 Performance and regulatory effects of non-compliant loans in German synthetic mortgage-backed securities transactions Gaby Trinkaus Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk, their earnings from term transformation, and the dynamics of the term structure Christoph Memmel 07 08 09 2010 2010 2010 Completeness, interconnectedness and distribution of interbank exposures – a parameterized analysis of the stability of financial networks Angelika Sachs Do banks benefit from internationalization? Revisiting the market power-risk nexus C. M. Buch C. Tahmee Koch, M. Koetter 37 10 11 2010 2010 Do specialization benefits outweigh Rolf Böve concentration risks in credit portfolios of German banks? Klaus Düllmann Andreas Pfingsten Are there disadvantaged clienteles in mutual funds? Stephan Jank 12 2010 Interbank tiering and money center banks Ben Craig, Goetz von Peter 13 2010 Are banks using hidden reserves Sven Bornemann, Thomas Kick to beat earnings benchmarks? Evidence from Germany Christoph Memmel Andreas Pfingsten How correlated are changes in banks’ net interest income and in their present value? Christoph Memmel Contingent capital to strengthen the private safety net for financial institutions: Cocos to the rescue? George M. von Furstenberg 14 01 2010 2011 02 2011 Gauging the impact of a low-interest rate environment on German life insurers Anke Kablau Michael Wedow 03 2011 Do capital buffers mitigate volatility of bank lending? A simulation study Frank Heid Ulrich Krüger 04 2011 The price impact of lending relationships Ingrid Stein 05 2011 Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models Yalin Gündüz Marliese Uhrig-Homburg Contagion at the interbank market with stochastic LGD Christoph Memmel Angelika Sachs, Ingrid Stein 06 38 2011 07 2011 The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility Barbara Meller Klaus Düllmann Natalia Puzanova 08 2011 Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach 09 2011 The importance of qualitative risk assessment in banking supervision before and during the crisis Thomas Kick Andreas Pfingsten 10 2011 Bank bailouts, interventions, and moral hazard Lammertjan Dam Michael Koetter 11 2011 Improvements in rating models for the German corporate sector Till Förstemann The effect of the interbank network structure on contagion and common shocks Co-Pierre Georg 12 2011 13 2011 Banks’ management of the net interest margin: evidence from Germany Christoph Memmel Andrea Schertler 14 2011 A hierarchical Archimedean copula for portfolio credit risk modelling Natalia Puzanova 39 Visiting researcher at the Deutsche Bundesbank The Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt is looking for a visiting researcher. Among others under certain conditions visiting researchers have access to a wide range of data in the Bundesbank. They include micro data on firms and banks not available in the public. Visitors should prepare a research project during their stay at the Bundesbank. Candidates must hold a PhD and be engaged in the field of either macroeconomics and monetary economics, financial markets or international economics. Proposed research projects should be from these fields. The visiting term will be from 3 to 6 months. Salary is commensurate with experience. Applicants are requested to send a CV, copies of recent papers, letters of reference and a proposal for a research project to: Deutsche Bundesbank Personalabteilung Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14 60431 Frankfurt GERMANY