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Math Tech IIII, Mar 27 Finding Normal Distribution Probabilities Book Sections: 5.1 & 5.2 Essential Questions: How can I compute probabilities using the standard normal distribution, any normal distribution, and what do those probabilities mean? Standards: DA-4.7, DA-4.10, S.ID.4 Standard Normal Probabilities • The area under the standard normal curve to the left of a zscore gives the probability that z is less than that z-score. Example: The area to the left of z = -0.99 is 0.1611. So P(z < -0.99) = 0.1611. • You can equate probability with any area under the curve before, after, or between any z-values. Here’s how: Interpreting Standard Normal Probabilities • P(z < z1) = area left of z1 (lookup procedure a) • P(z > z1) = 1 – area left of z1 (which is the area right of z1) (lookup procedure b) • P(z1 < z < z2) = area left of z2 – area left of z1 (the area between z1 and z2) (lookup procedure c) • These computations are the ones from the last lesson, now called ‘probability’ as a new interpretation. Normal Distributions Find the z for a given x Any normal distribution with μ and σ You can use the standard normal model to compute any probability. The way in is through z-score and table. Any Normal Distribution Probabilities • There are an infinite number of normal distributions, but only one Standard Normal Distribution. • The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean, of 0 and a standard deviation, of 1. Any distribution can be transformed here by the Z-Score. z (x ) How It Works The objective is to compute the probability of some value with respect to the mean, μ and the standard deviation, σ. You can normalize the computation and apply the correct model to compute the desired probability. How do you normalize? Use the z-score formula. The Step-by-Step Way 1. Read the problem, determine what is being asked. Write an inequality. 2. Determine μ and σ, and any x-values in the problem. 3. Compute z score(s) needed. 4. Set up model based on step 1 for ‘This’ probability. 5. Enter table with z-score(s), extract probability value(s). 6. Compute probabilities based on model from step 4. Example 1 The weights of adult male beagles are normally distributed with a mean of 25 pounds and a standard deviation of 3 pounds. A beagle is randomly selected. Compute each probability: a) That the beagle’s weight is less than 23 pounds. b) That the beagle’s weight is between 24 and 26 pounds. c) That the beagle’s weight is more than 30 pounds. Example 1a The weights of adult male beagles are normally distributed with a mean of 25 pounds and a standard deviation of 3 pounds. A beagle is randomly selected. Compute each probability: a) That the beagle’s weight is less than 23 pounds. μ = 25, σ = 3 Example 1b The weights of adult male beagles are normally distributed with a mean of 25 pounds and a standard deviation of 3 pounds. A beagle is randomly selected. Compute each probability: b) That the beagle’s weight is between 24 and 26 pounds. μ = 25, σ=3 Example 1c The weights of adult male beagles are normally distributed with a mean of 25 pounds and a standard deviation of 3 pounds. A beagle is randomly selected. Compute each probability: c) That the beagle’s weight is more than 30 pounds. μ = 25, σ = 3 Classwork: Handout CW 3/27, 1-10 Homework – None