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Transcript
1 Introduction In Chapter 2, 3, and 4, we usually takes the rate of return, yield rate, or yield to maturity as given and compute some other quantities such as the present value of the cash–flow, the size(s) of payments, and the number of payments. In the reality, it is common that we know everything but the interest rate. Therefore, in Chapter 5, we are interested in solving the unknown interest problem. The equation that we need to solve is based on the equation of value, which states that the present value at time 0 of cash–inflow equals the present value at time 0 of cash–outflow. In other words, we are interested in determining the rate that will equate the present values of cash–inflow and cash–outflow. It is a simple idea, which requires great knowledge in advance computation methods and numerical analysis theories the equation that we need to solve is almost always non–linear. Keep in mind that most of financial practitioners 50 years ago only have a desktop calculator, which is not capable to perform many sophisticated calculations. The best they can to is either to make some additional assumptions to make computation easier or to rely on some analytical approximations. 2 Internal Rate of Return Supposed that we know in advance the size and the time of all cash–inflows and cash–outflows that are generated by an investment. P~in = R0 R1 R2 R3 · · · Rn and P~out = C0 C1 C2 C3 · · · Cn Then by the equation of value (PV0 {P~in } = PV0 {P~out }) with the assumption of compound interest accumulation function R0 + R1 ν + R2 ν 2 + R3 ν 3 + · · · + Rn ν n = C0 + C1 ν + C2 ν 2 + C3 ν 3 + · · · + Cn ν n Note that the reference time point can be picked arbitrarily since the above equation is based on compound interest accumulation function. By rearranging the terms, we have (R0 − C0 ) + (R1 − C1 )ν + (R2 − C2 )ν 2 + (R3 − C3 )ν 3 + · · · + (Rn − Cn )ν n = 0, where ν = 1 1+j The internal rate of return (IRR) is defined to be the rate j such that the above equation holds. There are few things about internal rate of return you should be aware of. First of all, the above equation is not linear in j; it is a polynomial of degree at most n. It is proved in the algebra theory that no closed analytical formula exists in general. To obtains the root of the above equation requires some iterative root–find algorithms, i.e. Bisection Method, Secant Method, or Newton–Raphson Method. Secondly, the internal rate of return is not unique. Please refer Q #5.1.6 e) for the non–uniqueness of IRR. Thirdly, since the internal rate of return is not unique in general, there could be two or more rates satisfying the above equation. It raises some difficulties on how to choose the “right” rate. 3 Dollar–Weighted Rate of Return OK. So we can not solve the following equation (R0 − C0 ) + (R1 − C1 )ν + (R2 − C2 )ν 2 + (R3 − C3 )ν 3 + · · · + (Rn − Cn )ν n = 0 1 with a desktop calculator. Can we makes some addition assumptions or apply some approximations so that the equation is easy enough by hand? • Assumption: All cash–flows occur within one year • Approximation: The compound–interest accumulation function is approximated by simple–interest accumulation function Remark: Since the simple interest rate that solves the equation of value depends on the reference time, the reference time is always set to be the end of year. Therefore, the equation of value based on the simple interest rate accumulation function becomes (R0 −C0 )[1+(1−t0 )j]+(R1 −C1 )[1+(1−t1 )j]+(R2 −C2 )[1+(1−t2 )j]+· · ·+(Rn −Cn )[1+(1−tn )j] = 0 , where t0 , t1 , t2 , . . . , tn are the times of transactions, and tk ∈ [0, 1] for k = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . , n The rate j solve above equation is called dollar–weighted rate of return. Since we are interested in calculating the rate of return (yield rate) within one–year, we set t0 = 0 and tn = 1. R0 − C0 and Rn − Cn are interpreted as the account balance at the beginning of year and at the end of year, respectively. The equation of value can be summarized as following: accumulated amount of initial balance at the end of year + all deposits accumulated to the end of year with simple interest = all withdrawals accumulated to the end of year with simple interest + balance at the end of year Note that the above equation is the same one we would use to solve for the IRR, but for IRR, we would use compound interest instead of simple interest. Example 3.1 A pension fund receives contributions and pays benefits from time to time. The fund value is reported after every transaction and at year end. The details during the year 2005 are as follows: Date Jan 1, 2005 Ma 1, 2005 Sep 1, 2005 Nov 1, 2006 Jan 1, 2006 Amount 1,000,000 1,240,000 1,600,000 1,080,000 900,000 Contribution Received: Date Feb 28, 2005 Aug 31, 2005 Amount 200,000 200,000 Benefits Paid: Date Oct 31, 2005 Dec 31, 2005 Amount 500,000 200,000 Fund Values: 2 Find the dollar–weighted rate of return. The beginning account balance is $1,000,000, and the ending balance is $900,000. 306 The cash–inflow are $200,000 at time t = 1 − 365 and $200,000 at time t = 1 − 61 and $200,000 at time t = 1 − 365 cash–outflow are $500,000 at time t = 1 − 365 365 61 ; 365 the 306 122 61 i) + 200000(1 + i) = 500000(1 + i) + 200000 + 900000 365 365 365 (500000)(61) (200000)(306) (200000)(122) + ]i = 1600000 + i 1400000 + [1000000 + 365 365 365 ⇒ i = 0.1737681 1000000(1 + i) + 200000(1 + Note that you need the times, sizes, types of transactions as well as the beginning and the ending account balance to find the dollar–weighted rate of return. 4 Time–Weighted Rate of Return The time–weighted rate of return for one year period is found by compounding the return over successive parts of the year. We essentially partition the one year period into some fractional interval with respect to the dates of transactions (deposits and/or withdrawals), and then calculate the rate of return over each fractional time period. Then the dollar–weighted rate of return is the compounding the rate in successive intervals. Example 4.1 A pension fund receives contributions and pays benefits from time to time. The fund value is reported after every transaction and at year end. The details during the year 2005 are as follows: Date Jan 1, 2005 Ma 1, 2005 Sep 1, 2005 Nov 1, 2006 Jan 1, 2006 Amount 1,000,000 1,240,000 1,600,000 1,080,000 900,000 Contribution Received: Date Feb 28, 2005 Aug 31, 2005 Amount 200,000 200,000 Benefits Paid: Date Oct 31, 2005 Dec 31, 2005 Amount 500,000 200,000 Fund Values: Q.1 Find the time–weighted rate of return. Here, the year 2005 is partitioned into 4 smaller intervals: [01/01/2005, 03/01/2005), [03/01/2005, 09/01/2005), [09/01/2005, 11/01/2005), and [11/01/2005, 01/01/2006). 3 Partition Beginning Balance Ending Balance Before Transaction Rate of Return [01/01/2005, 03/01/2005) 1000000 1040000 1040000 1000000 − 1 = .04 [03/01/2005, 09/01/2005) 1240000 1400000 1400000 1240000 − 1 = .129032 [09/01/2005, 11/01/2005) 1600000 1580000 1580000 1600000 − 1 = −.0125 [11/01/2005, 01/01/2006) 1080000 1100000 1100000 1080000 − 1 = .0185185 Therefore, the time–weighted return is (1 + 04)(1 + 0.129032)(1 − 0.0125)(1 + 0.0185185) − 1 = 0.0.1809886 or it can also be solved by 1040000 1400000 1580000 1100000 − 1 = 0.18098865 1000000 1240000 1600000 1080000 Q.2 Find the internal rate of return. 122 61 306 1000000(1+i)+200000(1+i) 365 +200000(1+i) 365 = 500000(1+i) 365 +200000+900000 5 One More Example: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total # of Days 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 365 # of Day till The End of Year 334 306 275 245 214 184 153 122 92 61 31 0 Example 5.1 An association had a fund balance of $75 on January 1 and $60 on December 31. At the end of every month association treasurer deposited $10 from the membership fees. Withdrawals Feb. 28 $5 Jun. 30 $25 Oct. 15 $80 Oct. 31 $35 4 What is the dollar–weighted rate of return? There are 12 deposits of $10 and 4 withdrawals on Feb. 28, Jun. 30, Oct 15, and Oct 31. There are 16 transactions in total. R0 − C0 R1 − C1 R2 − C2 R3 − C3 · · · R14 − C14 = 75 10 5 10 10 10 −15 10 10 10 −80 −25 10 −65 334 184 , where t0 = 0, t1 = 1 − 365 , t2 = 1 − 306 , t3 = 1 − 275 , t4 = 1 − 245 , t5 = 1 − 214 , t6 = 1 − 365 , 365 365 365 365 122 92 77 61 31 153 t7 = 1 − 365 , t8 = 1 − 365 , t9 = 1 − 365 , t10 = 1 − 365 , t11 = 1 − 365 , t12 = 1 − 365 , and 0 t13 = 1 − 365 Therefore, 75(1 + j) + 10(1 + 334 j) + 5(1 + 306 j) + · · · + (−65) = 0 365 365 6 Basic Textbook Questions to Practice • 5.2.1 ˜ 5.2.7 5