Download Economic Linkages between Asia and Latin America

Economic Linkages between Asia and Latin America
Opportunities, Challenges and Policies
March 3, 2016
Min Zhu
Deputy Managing Director
Outline
I. Trade and Financial Linkages
II. Future Opportunities & Potential
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Outline
I. Trade and Financial Linkages
II. Future Opportunities & Potential
3
Trade Ties between Asia and Latin America
Latin America: Exports of Goods to Asia
Asia: Exports of Goods to Latin America
(Billions of U.S. dollars)
( Billions of U.S. dollars)
300
300
250
250
200
200
To China
150
100
From China
150
100
50
Asia excl. China
Asia excl. China
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
0
50
Sources: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics; and IMF staff calculations.
4
China’s Consumption of Major Commodities Exported by Latin
America
(In percent of total world consumption)
2000
2013
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Petroleum
Copper
Iron Ore
Source: IMF staff calculations.
5
Financial linkages through FDI have also become significant
Latin America: FDI from Asia
Asia: FDI from Latin America
(Billions of U.S. dollars)
(Billions of U.S. dollars)
80
50
70
40
From: Asia (excl. China and Japan)
60
50
To: Asia (excl. China and Japan)
30
40
20
From: Japan
30
20
10
2012
2011
2010
2009
2014
To: China
0
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
2013
From: China
0
2013
10
Sources: IMF, Coordinated Direct Investment Survey; and IMF staff calculations.
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Outline
I. Trade and Financial Linkages
II. Future Opportunities & Potential
7
Real GDP Growth
(In percent; year-on-year growth)
14
Asia
Emerging Asia 1/
Latin America and the Caribbean
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.
Demographic Differences
Old-Age Dependency Ratio
(In percent of working-age population; average in each region)
Asia
Latin America
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2013
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators; and IMF staff calculations.
Note: Asia includes: China, Japan, Korea, India and Indonesia; Latin America includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
9
Intra- and Inter- Regional Exports
Origin: Latin America and the Caribbean
Origin: Asia
(In percent; 2014)
(In percent; 2014)
100
80
60
40
20
0
To: America
Latin America
andCaribbean
the Caribbean
Latin
and the
To: Asia
To: Other Region
Asia
Sources: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics; and IMF staff calculations.
10
Quality of Infrastructure in Latin America
(Index, 7 = best; 2007–15)
7
6
5
4
3
2
Country-specific rivals in exports markets
LAC6
1
0
'07 '15 '07 '15 '07 '15 '07 '15 '07 '15 '07 '15
ARG
BRA
CHL
COL
PER
MEX
Source: IMF Staff estimates with World Economic Forum and UNCOMTRADE data.
Trade rivals sample defined as the top 5 exporters of each of the top 5 goods exported by
the respective country.
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Difference in Saving-Investment Balances
Current Account Balance
(Billions of U.S. dollars)
Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
800
600
400
200
0
-200
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-400
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations.
12
China: Outward FDI by Region
(Billions of U.S. dollars; end-2014)
(In percent of GDP; end-2014)
6.0
Latin
America:
100$B
Middle
East and
Africa:
128$B
Europe:
159$B
5.0
Asia:
201$B
4.9
4.4
4.0
3.0
2.4
2.0
North
America:
156$B
1.4
1.0
1.0
0.0
Asia
North
America
Europe
Sources: National authorities; China Global Investment Tracker (AEI and Heritage Foundation); and IMF staff estimates.
Note: Figures in red indicate the average size of ODI in each region as a percent of recipient country’s 2014 GDP.
Latin
America
Middle
East and
Africa
13
China: Official Loans to Latin America
Loans per Year
Loans by Sector
(Total of 125$B; 2005-2015)
(Total of 125$B; 2005-2015)
40
Mining:
1.7$B
35
30
Other:
12.4$B
25
20
Infrastructu
re:
40.3$B
15
10
Energy:
70.2$B
5
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
Source: The Inter-American Dialogue.
14
Free Trade Agreements
Number of Agreements between Asia and Latin America
30
at least 25
25
22
20
15
9
10
5
2
0
2004
2007
2013
2020 (Expected)
Source: East Asia Forum.
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Facilitating further integration
•
Resist protectionism at home.
•
Use trade and investment agreements to deepen integration.
•
Prefer multilateral approaches.
•
Regional agreements also have a key role, and should be open and transparent.
•
Outside trade and investment agreements, infrastructure cooperation can
contribute to a win-win relationship.
•
Enhanced regulatory cooperation can facilitate trade and FDI, and encourage
small and medium-sized enterprises to get involved in trade.
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IMF Contributions
•
Analysis and capacity-building that promote regional cooperation and exchanges.
•
Enhanced dialogue on regional cooperation, policies, and information
– Organized a predecessor conference at the 2015 Annual Meetings in Lima - Bridging
the Pacific: Harnessing The Benefits Of Rising Trade And Financial Integration Between
Asia And Latin America.
– Participated in the IISS Cartagena Dialogue: The Trans-Pacific Summit in 2014.
– Support for the APEC work through Finance Ministers Process, by providing inputs on
the outlook and risks, as well as on more technical issues (e.g., disaster risk financing;
infrastructure; investment financing).
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Thank You
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