Download Liderazgo, capacidad y crisis en las reformas institucionales de

Liderazgo, capacidad y crisis en
las reformas institucionales de
América Latina
Alejandro Bonvecchi
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Argentina
This Presentation
• Survey of explanations of institutional
change in political science with a focus on
those developed to explain changes in
fiscal institutions
• Structure-based Explanations
• Actor-based Explanations
• Integration of Different Explanations
Structure-based Explanations
• Origin of Institutional Change: economic crises; diffusion of policy
ideas
• Process of Institutional Change: state capacities, political regime
type, distribution of power among government branches, party
system, level of electoral competition,representation of subnational
political units.
• Nature of Institutional Change: state capacities, diffusion of policy
ideas
Actor-Based Explanations
• Origin of Institutional Change: actors’ pressures on governments;
mandates; risk perceptions; elite circulation; autonomous strategic
choice.
• Process of Institutional Change: organization of actors; strength of
actors; relations between governments and economic actors;
Executive-ruling party relations; risk perceptions.
• Nature of Institutional Change: internal configuration of actors;
organizational strength; institutional leverage over other actors
Integration of Explanations
•
Four General Hypotheses:
•
1-Changes are initiated when governments perceive the status quo to be
highly risky due to crisis situations or to pressures by IFIs or financialmarket actors.
•
2-Processes of institutional change are faster and deeper the lesser the
number of veto players, the weaker and more fiscally dependent the veto
players, the more coordinated the bargaining, and the farthest-reaching the
coverage of bargains.
•
3-Changes are farthest from the status quo the more discredited the policy
legacies, the more flexible the administrative structures, and the strongest
the national party leaders
•
4-Changes are more centralizing the more flexible the administrative
structures, the stronger the national party leaders and the national, single,
disciplined peak associations, and the weaker the particularistic legislators,
regional peak associations, and subnational party leaders.
Integration of Explanations
Budgetary Rules
• Process of institutional change of fiscal rules should be faster and
deeper than the process of changing procedural and transparency
rules.
• Process of institutional change of procedural rules should be the
more protracted and shallow of budgetary rule changes.
• Process of institutional change of transparency rules should stand
somewhere in the middle.
• Nature of changes of fiscal rules can be explained by the general
hypotheses.
• Nature of changes of procedural rules is affected by level of
electoral competition and executive-ruling party relations
• Nature of changes of transparency rules depends upon flexibility of
administrative structures, strength of national party leaders, and
weakness of particularistic legislators and subnational governments
Integration of Explanations
Taxation
• Process of institutional change for tariff cuts and tax administration
reform is typically faster and deeper than for the rest of the tax
changes.
• Processes of institutional change of corporate and individual income
taxes and VAT are typically protracted, uncoordinated, and generate
a diversity of particularistic negotiations with different actors.
• Nature of changes in tariffs, corporate taxes, and VAT depends on
strength of executives and national party leaders, and strength and
coverage of peak associations, particularistic legislators, and
subnational governments.
• Nature of changes in the tax administration depends on the flexibility
of administrative structures and the strength of executives.
Integration of Explanations
Social Security
• Process leading to the substitution of public with private social
security systems is typically faster and inherently deeper than the
process leading to any of the alternative outcomes.
• Process of change towards a mixed system is typically the most
protracted, hardest to coordinate, and prone to particularistic
negotiations.
• Process of change towards a parallel system typically stands in the
middle.
• Process of partial reforms to the public system varies in speed and
depth according to which part of the system is being targeted.
• The more discredited the public system, the more flexible the
administrative structures, and the stronger the executive vis-à-vis
the legislature, the ruling party and the public sector unions, the
farthest the change away from public social security systems.
Integration of Explanations
Fiscal Federalism
• Process of change for expenditure decentralization is typically faster
and deeper than for any of the other areas.
• Process of institutional change of subnational tax and debt policies
and intergovernmental transfer systems is typically protracted.
• Nature of institutional change in fiscal federalism depends on the
institutional and electoral strength of national party leaders vis-à-vis
the subnational.