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Inversion Towards Occupation
A New Challenge to Israel’s National Security Concept
January 2007
A New Challenge to National Security
Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept
Israel is in Strategic Inferiority
Palestinians may not fight for end of occupation
Israel’s policy towards Hamas has failed
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Crisis in Israel’s National Security Concept
Objective
Two-State
Anchor
Israeli Strength
Problem
Security &
Foreign Affairs
USA
Alliance with
the Superpower
Palestinians
State & End of
Occupation
IDF
Win, Deter
Logic
Military
Enemy
States and
Organizations
One-State
Iranian Hegemony
Structure of the
Political System
US Decline; Erosion of
Pro-Israel Lobby
Inversion Towards Occupation
How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza?
Political – Strategy of Implosion
The Resistance Network
Adaptive Challenge for National Security
Technical
Problem
Semi-technical
Problem
Adaptive
Challenge
Problem
Known
Known
Un-Known
Solution
Known
Un-Known
Un-Known
Ron Heifetz
4
“Leadership without
Easy Answers"
Strategy of Implosion
Purpose: Destruction of Israel
Meshal: “If Hamas cannot
Ahmadinejad:
protect the Palestinian
“The Palestinian
people,
Nasrallah: “We“Israel
do notisneed
Ahmadinejad:
on a
refugees
let the PAwill
go be
to hell…
able to[Hamas]
return.
tanks
planes…
crashand
course…
just[Israel]
like theis
Thewill
future
not find
of Palestine
it difficult
will
tobe
weakerUnion
than adisappeared.”
spider web.”
Soviet
announce
determined
theby
dissolution
referendum.”
of the
(7/31/06)
(12/2/06)
PA and a return
(11/29/06)
to ground zero:
an occupied nation.” (3/19/06)
Continuation of
Occupation
War Against
Occupation
De-Legitimize
Promote 1SS
Oppose 2SS
Military
Means
Israeli
Implosion
Single Arab
State in its place
5
Inversion Towards Occupation
6
2005
1988
Palestinians oppose PSPB
Palestinians seek state (even PSPB)
2007
1967
Inversion towards occupation?
Palestinians oppose occupation
?
1937
Inversion towards 2SS
Int'l community supports 2SS
Significance of Inversion
 Strategic Inferiority
Political Logic:
Ending
Value
Control
>
 Clash of Logics
 Price  and Value 
 Harder to End Control
7
Military Logic:
Increasing
Control
Price
Time
Hamas Accelerates Inversion
 Political Dead-End
Negotiation
 Crisis of Palestinian
Representation
 Dismantling the PA
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Meshal: “Hamas will close
the political chapter…2SS
and
the PA will collapse.”
(11/25/06)
Unilateral
Policy Guidelines
 Re-establishing an
Address
 Consolidating
Separation
 Upgrading Political
Status
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Policies vis-à-vis Hamas
3 Demands +
embargo
No PA collapse
Corridor of difficult
decisions
War against Hamas
De-Jure
De-Facto
Already exists
Bypassing Hamas
Upgrading the PA
Deal with Fatah
Risks
Battle
Hamas
Confrontation
Recog.
IL
Exposure
Pal.
State
Obstruction
Hamas doesn’t
fall / change
PA collapses
Hostile PA
Weaken Abu Mazen
PA collapses / terror
Hamas wins
Fatah under-delivers
Policies vis-à-vis Hamas
Obstruction
Allow it to
Govern
Exposure
Unity Gov’t
Confrontation
Civil War
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Fatah wins
at least in
the WB
Address
Responses are Bubbling
Objective
Two-State
Solution
One State
Anchor
Israeli Strength
Iranian Hegemony
Economic Sanctions
& Military Tools
Problem
Security &
Foreign Affairs
Political System
Political Reform
USA
Closeness with
the Power
US Decline
Regional Alliances
Palestinians
State & End of
Occupation
Inversion Towards
Occupation
IDF
Victory, Deter
How to Win in
Lebanon and Gaza?
Logic
Military
Political – Strategy of
Implosion
Enemy
States and
Organizations
Resistance Network
Exposure or
Confrontation
Winograd Commission
Meridor Report
“How to Break the
Amoeba’s Bones?”
Conclusions
Israel faces a new strategy:
Occupation leads to Israel’s implosion
Palestinians don’t want or can’t end the occupation
Policy against Hamas is failing
Allow a unity government to govern
Confront Hamas in a Palestinian Civil War
Commissions of Inquiry are not enough
Problem lies in the National Security Concept
Relevant commission yet to be formed
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