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Click to edit Master title style Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office Ministry for the Environment Agriculture in New Zealand Click to edit Master title style • Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture) • 44% of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral agriculture • Highly export-dependent country (64% of total NZ exports) • Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid Click to edit Master title style Adaptation – Overview of Options Click to edit Master title style • Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change: Extension of growing season Wider range of products / market timing • Managing gradual change: Adaptive breeding of cultivars On-going disease / biosecurity management Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies • Managing extreme events: Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting Floods: land-use planning; warning systems Assessment Tools Click to edit Master title style Top-down assessments: • Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs • Development of national impact assesment tools (CLIMPACTS) • Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation - Preliminary economic assessments • Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research • Regulatory approaches – local government planning and strategies Bottom-up assessments: • Specific topic and regional studies • Cost of specific events – floods and droughts • Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers GCM Downscaling on Master NZ Agriculture ClickImpacts to edit title style • New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than global average due to oceanic influence • Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier conditions in east, wetter in west • Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most places) and drought risk (eastern regions) • Biological effects of extension of growing season, change in species composition / disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation • Reductions in cold hardening in some crops CLIMPACTS - Impacts Tool ClickAssessment to edit Master title style Impacts assessment – example kiwifruit Click to edit Master title style 1990 2100 Climate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment • Click to edit Master title style Drought is an important cause of variation in NZ’s GDP. Economic studies show impacts. • Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in drought risk, severity and return frequency • Adapting now has important co-benefits for future climate • Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of Action on Water: quality, quanity Free Air Carbon Dioxide Click to edit(FACE)Research Master title style Enrichment FACE Research Click to edit Master title style • Assessment now of impacts of future elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological systems • IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems • Provides insights into national and global adaptation strategies Regional Climate Assessments Farmers using information manage for Click to edit Masterto title style current climate variability Examples: • GrowOTAGO climate / soil mapping project • Kaipara / Far North climate / soil / crop project • Southern Climate & Pasture Outlook Enabling Individual Farmers • Click to edit Master title style Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have received little attention from farmers • Need to engage farmers at local scale with a “view from the ground” perspective • Series of farmer interviews and workshops focusing on “sustainability” and positive options for managing risks covering: Diversification Water issues Good information at right level / timing Click to edit Master title style Adaptation – Regulatory Responses Click to edit Master title style • Are part of Sustainable Development strategies • Regulatory framework for adaptation: Regional Councils develop regional policies and manage natural resources/hazards Resource Management Act requires “particular regard to the effects of climate change” Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has been developed for local government Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable Development strategies and community-based longterm plans Conclusions Click to edit Master title style • Adaptation is very important for agricultural based economies whether developed or developing • Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term • Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively known or poorly understood • Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity. water management, biodiversity) • Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but needs to be integrated into business decisions • Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries