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Adaption Tools for a Developed
Agricultural Economy
Judy Lawrence
Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office
Ministry for the Environment
Agriculture in New Zealand
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• Pastoral agriculture is a major
contributor to GDP (10% GDP including
food processing and manufacture)
• 44% of NZs land area is in grazing
pastoral agriculture
• Highly export-dependent country (64%
of total NZ exports)
• Climate spans subtropical to cool
temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid
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Adaptation
–
Overview
of
Options
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• Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change:
 Extension of growing season
 Wider range of products / market timing
• Managing gradual change:
 Adaptive breeding of cultivars
 On-going disease / biosecurity management
 Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies
• Managing extreme events:
 Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting
 Floods: land-use planning; warning systems
Assessment Tools
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Top-down assessments:
• Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs
• Development of national impact assesment tools
(CLIMPACTS)
• Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation
- Preliminary economic assessments
• Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research
• Regulatory approaches – local government planning
and strategies
Bottom-up assessments:
• Specific topic and regional studies
• Cost of specific events – floods and droughts
• Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers
GCM Downscaling
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NZ Agriculture
ClickImpacts
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• New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly
than global average due to oceanic influence
• Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards
drier conditions in east, wetter in west
• Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most
places) and drought risk (eastern regions)
• Biological effects of extension of growing
season, change in species composition /
disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation
• Reductions in cold hardening in some crops
CLIMPACTS - Impacts
Tool
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Impacts assessment – example kiwifruit
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1990
2100
Climate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment
•
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Drought is an important cause of variation in
NZ’s GDP. Economic studies show impacts.
• Work programmes aim to quantify likely
changes in drought risk, severity and return
frequency
• Adapting now has important co-benefits for
future climate
• Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan
of Action on Water: quality, quanity
Free Air Carbon Dioxide
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Enrichment
FACE
Research
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• Assessment now of impacts of future
elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological
systems
• IGBP Global FACE Network covers major
ecosystems
• Provides insights into national and global
adaptation strategies
Regional Climate Assessments
Farmers
using
information
manage
for
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current climate variability
Examples:
• GrowOTAGO climate /
soil mapping project
• Kaipara / Far North
climate / soil / crop
project
• Southern Climate &
Pasture Outlook
Enabling Individual Farmers
•
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Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments
have received little attention from farmers
• Need to engage farmers at local scale with a
“view from the ground” perspective
• Series of farmer interviews and workshops
focusing on “sustainability” and positive
options for managing risks covering:
 Diversification
 Water issues
 Good information at right level / timing
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Adaptation
–
Regulatory
Responses
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• Are part of Sustainable Development strategies
• Regulatory framework for adaptation:
 Regional Councils develop regional policies and
manage natural resources/hazards
 Resource Management Act requires “particular
regard to the effects of climate change”
 Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has
been developed for local government
 Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable
Development strategies and community-based longterm plans
Conclusions
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• Adaptation is very important for agricultural based
economies whether developed or developing
• Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term
• Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively
known or poorly understood
• Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise
from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity.
water management, biodiversity)
• Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but
needs to be integrated into business decisions
• Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries