Download Evaluating Consumer Loans

Bank Management, 6th edition.
Timothy W. Koch and S. Scott MacDonald
Copyright © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning
Evaluating Consumer
Loans
Chapter 12
William Chittenden edited and updated the PowerPoint slides for this edition.
Consumer Loans
 Consumer loans in the aggregate
currently produce greater percentage
profits for banks than commercial
loans
 This
is true despite the higher default
rates on consumer loans
 Not surprisingly, consumer loan rates
typically exceed commercial loan rates
Profitability Measures for FDIC-Insured
Banks with Different Asset Concentrations
Performance Ratios By Asset Concentration Group
Return on Assets (YTD)
December 31, 2004
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
4.01%
1.23%
1.66%
1.30%
1.18%
Commercial
Lenders
Mortgage
Lenders
1.66%
1.10%
0.76%
International
Banks
Agricultural
Banks
Credit Card
Lenders
Consumer
Lenders
Other
Specialized <
$1 Billion
All Other <
$1 Billion
1.35%
All Other >
$1 Billion
Net Interest Margin (YTD)
December 31, 2004
10.0%
9.05%
8.0%
6.0%
4.71%
4.07%
4.0%
3.86%
3.20%
3.05%
2.50%
3.86%
3.27%
2.0%
0.0%
International Agricultural
Banks
Banks
Credit Card
Lenders
Commercial
Lenders
Mortgage
Lenders
Consumer
Lenders
Other
All Other <
Specialized < $1 Billion
$1 Billion
All Other >
$1 Billion
Net Charge-Offs of FDIC-Insured Banks
with Different Asset Concentrations
Net Charge-offs to Loans and Leases (YTD)
December 31, 2004
5.0%
4.67%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.57%
0.91%
0.59%
0.30%
0.21%
0.12%
0.31%
0.25%
All Other <
$1 Billion
All Other >
$1 Billion
0.0%
International
Banks
Agricultural
Banks
Credit Card
Lenders
Commercial
Lenders
Mortgage
Lenders
Consumer
Lenders
Other
Specialized <
$1 Billion
Consumer Loans
 Evaluating Consumer Loans
 An analyst should addresses the same
issues discussed with commercial
loans:
 The use of loan proceeds
 The amount needed
 The primary and secondary source of
repayment
 However, consumer loans differ so
much in design that no comprehensive
analytical format applies to all loans
Types of Consumer Loans
 Installment Loans
 Require the periodic payment of
principal and interest
 Can be extremely profitable
 Direct
 Negotiated between the bank and the
ultimate user of the funds
 Indirect
 Funded by a bank through a separate
retailer that sells merchandise to a
customer
Types of Consumer Loans
 Credit Cards and Other Revolving Credit

Credit cards and overlines tied to checking
accounts are the two most popular forms of
revolving credit agreements


In 2004 consumers charged approximately
$2.5 trillion on credit cards
Most banks operate as franchises of
MasterCard and/or Visa

Bank pays a one-time membership fee plus an
annual charge determined by the number of
its customers actively using the cards
Types of Consumer Loans
 Credit Cards and Other Revolving
Credit
 Credit
cards are attractive because
they provide higher risk-adjusted
returns than do other types of loans

Card issuers earn income from three
sources:
 Cardholders’ annual fees
 Interest on outstanding loan balances
 Discounting the charges that merchants
accept on purchases.
Credit Card Loss Rates and Personal
Bankruptcy Filings: 1984-2004
Personal Bankruptcy Filings $000
Net Charge-Off %
9%
450
Credit-Card
Charge-Off
Rates
8%
7%
400
350
6%
300
5%
250
Personal
Bankruptcy
Filings
4%
200
3%
2%
150
1%
100
0%
50
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
Types of Consumer Loans
 Credit Card Systems and Profitability
 Returns
depend on the specific role
the bank plays
A bank is called a card bank if it
administers its own credit card plan or
serves as the primary regional agent of
a major credit card operation
 A non-card bank does not issue its own
card

Credit Card Transaction Process
1
Individual
Retail Outlet
4
Card-Issuing
Bank
2
3
Clearing
Network
3
Local Merchant
Bank
2
Steps
Fees
1. Individual uses a credit card to purchase
merchandise from a retail outlet.
2. Retail outlet deposits the sales slip or
electronically transmits the purchase data
at its local bank.
3. Local merchant bank forwards the
transaction information to a clearing
network, which routes the data to the bank
that issued the credit card to the individual.
4. The card-issuing bank sends the individual
an itemized bill for all purchases.
1. None
2. The merchant bank discounts the sales receipt. A 3
percent discount indicates the bank gives the retailer
$97 in credit for each $100 receipt.
3. The card-issuing bank charges the merchant bank an
interchange fee equal to 1 to 1.5 percent of the
transaction amount for each item handled.
4. The card-issuing bank charges the customer interest
and an annual fee for the privilege of using the card.
A card-issuing bank also serves as a merchant bank.
Debit Cards and Smart Card
 Debit Cards
 Widely
available
 When an individual uses the card, their
balance is immediately debited
 They have lower processing costs to
the bank
Debit Cards and Smart Card
 Smart Card
 An
extension of debit and credit cards
 Contains a memory chip which can
manipulate information
 It is programmable such that users can
store information and recall this
information when effecting
transactions.
 Only modest usage in the U.S.
Debit Cards and Smart Card
 Smart Card
 Usage
will likely increase dramatically
in the U.S.:
Firms can offer a much wider range of
services
 Smart cards represent a link between
the Internet and real economic activity
 Suppliers of smart cards are
standardizing the formats so that all
cards work on the same systems

Pre-Paid Cards
 Prepaid Cards
A
hybrid of debit cards in which
customers prepay for services to be
rendered and receive a card against
which purchases are charged
 Use of phone cards, prepaid cellular,
toll tags, subway, etc. are growing
rapidly
Types of Consumer Loans
 Overdraft Protection and Open Credit Lines

Overdraft Protection Against Checking
Accounts

A type of revolving credit
 Open Credit Lines


A recent trend is to offer open credit lines to
affluent individuals whether or not they have
an existing account relationship
Typically, the bank provides customers with
special checks that activate a loan when
presented for payment
Types of Consumer Loans
 Home Equity Loans
 Grew from virtually nothing in the mid1980s to over $250 billion in 2004
 They meet the tax deductibility
requirements of the Tax Reform Act of
1986, which limits deductions for
consumer loan interest paid by
individuals, because they are secured
by equity in an individual's home
 Some allow access to credit line by
using a credit card
Types of Consumer Loans
 Non-Installment Loans
 Often
require a single principal and
interest payment

Bridge loans are representative of
single payment consumer loans.
 Bridge loans often arise when an individual
borrows funds for the down payment on a
new house
 The loan is repaid when the borrower sells
the previous home
Subprime Loans
 One of the hottest growth areas during
the 1990s
 Subprime
loans are higher-risk loans
labeled “B,” “C,” and “D” credits
They have been especially popular in
auto, home equity, and mortgage
lending
 Typically have the same risk as loans
originated through consumer finance
companies

Subprime Loans
 Subprime loans have greater risk and must be priced
consistently higher than prime-grade loans
 Example Definitions:



B: Typically scores 600+ under the Fair Isaac system; has
some 90-day past dues but is now current. Typical
delinquencies are 2%-5%; repossessions are 2.5%-6%;
and losses are 1.5%-3%
C: Typically scores between 500 and 600 and has had
write-offs and judgments. The borrower has made
subsequent payments of some or all of the loans. Typical
delinquencies are 5%-10%; repossessions, 5%-20%; and
losses 3%-10%
D: Typically scores between 440 and 500 and has chargeoffs and judgments that have not been repaid and has
not made payments on these loans. Delinquencies are
10%-20%; repossessions, 16%-40%; losses, 10%-20%
Subprime Loans
 High LTV Loans
 High
Loan-To-Value
Many lenders upped the stakes by
making “high LTV” loans based on the
equity in a borrower’s home
 Where traditional home equity loans are
capped at 75 percent of appraised value
minus the outstanding principal
balance, high LTV loans equal as much
as 125% of the value of a home

Consumer Credit Regulations
 Equal Credit Opportunity
 Makes it illegal for lenders to
discriminate
 Prohibits Information Requests on:
 The applicant's marital status
 Whether alimony, child support, and
public assistance are included in
reported income
 A woman's childbearing capability and
plans
 Whether an applicant has a telephone
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Equal Credit Opportunity
 Credit
Scoring Systems
Credit scoring systems are acceptable if
they do not require prohibited
information and are statistically justified
 Credit scoring systems can use
information about age, sex, and marital
status as long as these factors
contribute positively to the applicant's
creditworthiness

Consumer Credit Regulations
 Equal Credit Opportunity
 Credit
Scoring Systems
Credit scoring models are based on
historical data obtained from applicants
who actually received loans
 Statistical techniques assign weights to
various borrower characteristics that
represent each factor's contribution
toward distinguishing between good
loans that were repaid on time and
problem loans that produced losses

Consumer Credit Regulations
 Equal Credit Opportunity
 Credit
Reporting
Lenders must report credit extended
jointly to married couples in both
spouses' names
 Whenever lenders reject a loan, they
must notify applicants of the credit
denial within 30 days and indicate why
the request was turned down

Consumer Credit Regulations
 Truth In Lending
 Regulations apply to all individual loans
up to $25,000 where the borrower's
primary residence does not serve as
collateral
 Requires that lenders disclose to
potential borrowers both the total
finance charge and an annual
percentage rate (APR)
 The APR equals the total finance charge
computed against the loan balance as a
simple annual interest rate equivalent
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Truth In Lending
 Historically,
consumer loan rates were
quoted as add-on rates, discount rates,
or simple interest rates
 Add-on Rates
 Applied
against the entire principal of
installment

Gross interest is added to the principal
with the total divided by the number of
periodic payments to determine the size
of each payment
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Add-on Rates
 Applied
against the entire principal of
installment

Gross interest is added to the principal
with the total divided by the number of
periodic payments to determine the size
of each payment
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Add-on Rates

Example:


Suppose that a customer borrows $3,000 for
one year at a 12 percent add-on rate with the
loan to be repaid in 12 equal monthly
installments
Total interest equals $360, monthly payment
equals $280, and the effective annual interest
cost is approximately 21.5%
[0.12($3,0 00)  $3,000]
 $280
12
12
$280
Effective Interest Rate(i) : 
 $3,000 i  21.46%
t
t=1(1 + i)
Monthly Payment 
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Discount Rate Method
 Quoted
rate is applied against the sum
of principal and interest, yet the
borrower gets to use only the principal,
as interest is immediately deducted
from the total loan
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Discount Rate Method
 Example:
 Consider a 1-year loan with a single
$3,000 payment at maturity.
 The borrower receives only $2,640, or the
total loan minus 12% discount rate
interest.
 The effective annual percentage rate, or
APR, equals 13.64%
 Interest charge = 0.12 ($3,000) = $360
$3,000
Annual Percentage Rate (in ) $2,640 =
(1 + in )
i  13.64%
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Simple Interest
 Interest
is paid on only the principal
sum

Example:
 $3,000 loan at 12% simple interest per year
produces $360 in interest, or a 12 percent
effective rate interest (is): =
$3,000(0.12)(1)= $360
$3,360
$3,000 =
(1 + is )
is  12%
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Simple Interest
 The quoted rate (APR) is adjusted to its
monthly equivalent, which is applied
against the unpaid principal balance
on a loan
 The loan is repaid in 12 monthly
installments and the monthly interest
rate equals 1 percent of the
outstanding principal balance at each
month
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Simple Interest
Repayment Schedule
End of Month
Monthly
Interest
Payment
Portion
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
Principal
$266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.55
266.51
$30.00
27.63
25.25
22.83
20.40
17.93
15.45
12.94
10.40
7.84
5.25
2.64
$236.55
238.92
241.30
243.72
246.15
248.62
251.10
253.61
256.15
258.71
261.30
263.87
$3,198.56
$198.56
$3,000.00
Effective interest rate:
Monthly rate = 1%
Annual precentage rate = 12%
Monthly payment = $3,000
Outstanding
Principal
Balance
$2,763.45
2,524.53
2,283.23
2,039.51
1,793.36
1,544.74
1,293.64
1,040.03
783.88
525.17
263.87
0.00
12
1
 (1.01)
i=1
t
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Fair Credit Reporting Act
 Enables individuals to examine their credit
reports provided by credit bureaus
 If any information is incorrect, the individual
can have the bureau make changes and notify
all lenders who obtained the inaccurate data
 There are three primary credit reporting
agencies:
 Equifax
 Experian
 Trans Union
 Unfortunately, the credit reports that they produce
are quite often wrong
Sample Credit Report
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Fair Credit Reporting Act
 Credit

Score
Like a bond rating for individuals
 Based on several factors
Facotor
Contributing to
Credit Score,
10%
Facotor
Contributing to
Credit Score,
15%
Facotor
Contributing to
Credit Score,
10%
Facotor
Contributing to
Credit Score,
30.00%
Facotor
Contributing to
Credit Score,
35%
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Community Reinvestment Act
 CRA prohibits redlining and encourages
lenders to extend credit within their immediate
trade area and the markets where they collect
deposits
 FIRREA of 1989 raised the profile of the CRA
by:
 Mandating public disclosure of bank lending
policies and regulatory ratings of bank
compliance
 Regulators must also take lending performance
into account when evaluating a bank's request
to charter a new bank, acquire a bank, open a
branch, or merge with another institution
Consumer Credit Regulations
 Bankruptcy Reform
 Individuals who cannot repay their debts on
time can file for bankruptcy and receive court
protection against creditors
 Individuals can file for bankruptcy under:
 Chapter 7
 Individuals liquidate qualified assets and distribute
the proceeds to creditors

Chapter 13
 An individual works out a repayment plan with court
supervision.


Unfortunately, individuals appear to be using
bankruptcy as a financial planning tool
It appears the stigma of bankruptcy is largely
gone
Credit Analysis
 Objective of consumer credit analysis is to assess the
risks associated with lending to individuals

When evaluating loans, bankers cite the Cs of credit:
 Character
 The most important element, but difficult to assess
 Capital
 Refers to the individual's wealth position
 Capacity
 The lender often imposes maximum allowable debtservice to income ratios
 Conditions
 The impact of economic events on the borrower's
capacity to pay
 Collateral
 The importance of collateral is in providing a
secondary source of repayment
Credit Analysis
 Two additional Cs
 Customer Relationship
 A bank’s prior relationship with a customer
reveals information about past credit and
deposit experience that is useful in assessing
willingness and ability to repay.
 Competition
 Has an impact by affecting the pricing of a loan.
 All loans should generate positive risk-adjusted
returns
 Lenders periodically react to competitive
pressures by undercutting competitors’ rates in
order to attract new business
 Competition should not affect the accept/reject
decision
Credit Analysis
 Policy Guidelines
 Acceptable
Loans
Automobile
 Boat
 Home Improvement
 Personal-Unsecured
 Single Payment
 Cosigned

Credit Analysis
 Policy Guidelines

Unacceptable Loans







Loans for speculative purposes
Loans secured by a second lien
 Other than home improvement or home
equity loans
Any participation with a correspondent bank in a
loan that the bank would not normally approve
Loans to a poor credit risk based on the
strength of the cosigner
Single payment automobile or boat loans
Loans secured by existing home furnishings
Loans for skydiving equipment and hang gliders
Credit Analysis
 Evaluation Procedures:
 Judgmental
and
 Quantitative, Credit Scoring
Credit Analysis: Judgmental Procedures
 Judgmental
 The
loan officer subjectively interprets
the information in light of the bank’s
lending guidelines and accepts or
rejects the loan
Credit Analysis: Quantitative
 Quantitative credit scoring / Credit
scoring model
 The
loan officer grades the loan request
according to a statistically sound model
that assigns points to selected
characteristics of the prospective
borrower
 In both cases, judgmental and
quantitative, a lending officer collects
information regarding the borrower’s
character, capacity, and collateral
An Application: Credit Scoring a Consumer Loan
 You receive an application for a
customer to purchase a 2003 Jeep
Cherokee
 Do
you make the loan?
An Application: Credit Scoring a Consumer
Loan
Credit scoring system, University
National Bank, applied to credit
application for purchase of a 2003 Jeep
Category
Characteristics/Weights
<$10,000
5
Monthly Debt Payment
>40%
Monthly Net Income
0
Annual Gross Income
Bank Relationship
Checking/Saving
Major Credit Cards
Credit History
Applicant's Age
Residence
Residence Stability
$10,000-$20,000
15
30-40%
5
None
Checking Only
0
30
None
1 or more
0
30
Any derogatory within 7 yrs.
-10
< 50 yrs.
>50 yrs.
5
25
Rent
15
Own/Buying
40
$20,000-$40,000
30
20-30%
20
$40,000-60,000
45
10-20%
35
>$60,000
60
<10%
50
Saving only
Checking & Saving No answer
30
50
0
No answer
0
No record
Met obligated payments
0
30
No answer
0
Own outright
50
No answer
15
< 1 yr.
1-2 yrs.
2-4 yrs.
>4 yrs.
No answer
0
15
35
50
0
Job Stability
< 1 yr.
1-2 yrs.
2-4 yrs.
>4 yrs.
Unemployed Retired
5
20
50
70
5
70
NOTE: Minimum score for automatic credit approval is 200; score for judgmental evaluation, 150 to 1 95; score for
automatic credit denial is less than 150. Melanie Groome's credit score is 185.
FICO Credit Scores
National Distribution of FICO Scores
30
28%
25
20
19%
15
16%
10
12%
5
5%
$% of Population
1%
11%
8%
0 Up to 499 500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799
800+
FICO Score Range
Delinquency Rates by FICO Score
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
87%
71%
51%
31%
15%
5%
2%
Up to 499 500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799
Rate of Credit Delinquencies FICO Score Range
1%
800+
An Application: Indirect Lending
 A retailer sells merchandise and takes the
credit application

Because many firms do not have the
resources to carry their receivables, they sell
the loans to banks or other financial
institutions


These loans are collectively referred to as
dealer paper
Banks aggressively compete for paper
originated by well-established automobile,
mobile home, and furniture dealers
An Application: Indirect Lending
 Indirect lending is an attractive form of consumer
lending when a bank deals with reputable retailers
 Dealers negotiate finance charges directly with
their customers
 A bank, in turn, agrees to purchase the paper at
predetermined rates that vary with the default
risk assumed by the bank, the quality of the
assets sold, and the maturity of the consumer
loan
 A dealer normally negotiates a higher rate with
the car buyer than the determined rate charged
by the bank
 This differential varies with competitive
conditions but potentially represents a
significant source of dealer profit
An Application: Indirect Lending
 Most indirect loan arrangements
provide for dealer reserves that reduce
the risk in indirect lending
 The
reserves are derived from the
differential between the normal, or
contract loan rate and the bank rate,
and help protect the bank against
customer defaults and refunds
Terms of the Dealer Agreement
Bank buys dealer paper at a 12 percent rate. Dealer charges customers a higher rate
(15 percent APR), with 25 percent of difference allocated to a reserve.
An Application: Indirect Lending
Sample Automobile Loan
Principal
Maturity
Loan rate
Monthly payment
= $8,000
= 3 years, 36 monthly installments
= 15% annual percentage rate (APR)
= $8,000/[(I/.0125) - (1/.0125(l.0125)36)]
$277.32
Allocation to the Dealer Reserve
Total interest expense to customer = $1,983.52
Total interest income for bank
= 1,565.72
Differential interest
- $ 417.80
75% allocated to dealer: 0.75(417.80)
= $313.35
25% allocated to reserve: 0.25(417.80)
= $104.45
Interest Refunds on Prepayments with Add-on Rates
Loan is written on a precomputed basis, and bank accrues interest using “rule of 78s"*
Interest expense to customer = 0.09($8,000)(3) = $2,160
Interest income for bank
= 0.07($8,000)(3) = 1,680
Differential interest = $ 480
75% allocated to dealer:
0.75($480) = $360
25% allocated to reserve: 0.25($480) = 120
End of Year Interest Earned* Total
1
2
3
Bank Difference
54.96%
$1,187.14
$923.33
$263.81
33.33
719.33
559.94
159.99
11.71
252.93
196.73
56.20
100.00%
$2,160.00
$1,680.00
$480.00
*Rule of 78s factors are 366/666, 222/666, and 78/666, respectively.
Recent Risks and Return Characteristics of
Consumer Loans
 Revenues from Consumer Loans
 The
attraction is two-fold:
Competition for commercial customers
narrowed commercial loan yields so
that returns fell relative to potential
risks
 Developing loan and deposit
relationships with individuals
presumably represents a strategic
response to deregulation

Recent Risks and Return Characteristics of
Consumer Loans
 Revenues from Consumer Loans
 Consumer
loan rates have been among
the highest rates quoted at banks in
recent years
 In addition to interest income, banks
generate substantial non-interest
revenues from consumer loans

With traditional installment credit,
banks often encourage borrowers to
purchase credit life insurance on which
the bank may earn a premium
Recent Risks and Return Characteristics of
Consumer Loans
 Consumer Loan Losses
 Losses
on consumer loans are
normally the highest among all
categories of bank credit
 Losses are anticipated because of
mass marketing efforts pursued by
many lenders, particularly with credit
cards.
 Credit card fraud losses amounted to
more than $2.4 billion in mid-2004
Recent Risks and Return Characteristics of
Consumer Loans
 Interest Rate and Liquidity Risk with
Consumer Credit
 The
majority of consumer loans are
priced at fixed rates
 New auto loans typically carry 4-year
maturities, and credit card loans exhibit
an average 15- to 18-month maturity
Recent Risks and Return Characteristics of
Consumer Loans
 Interest Rate and Liquidity Risk with
Consumer Credit
 Bankers
have responded in two ways:
Price more consumer loans on a
floating-rate basis
 Commercial and investment banks have
created a secondary market in
consumer loans, allowing loan
originators to sell a package of loans

Bank Management, 6th edition.
Timothy W. Koch and S. Scott MacDonald
Copyright © 2006 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning
Evaluating Consumer Loans
Chapter 12
William Chittenden edited and updated the PowerPoint slides for this edition.