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Biosecurity Vulnerability and Strategy evaluation Continued Total Welfare Total Welfare for CB analysis P2 Demand Supply CS P* E PS P1 Q* Q TSW=CS+PS Appraisal Based on Changes in Net Income • Examining situations where economic agents are operating with varying biosecurity attributes where all other factors either do not vary or can be controlled • Estimating a relationship between net income and the biosecurity attribute • Calculating the change in net income induced by the change in biosecurity attributes • Utilizing quantitative relationship between biosecurity change and net income . Assumes prices don’t change so demand is perfectly elastic Appraisal Based on Changes in Net Income Assumes prices don’t change so demand is perfectly elastic Initial Accomplishments (V) Applying Sector modeling Forestland Forest Production Biofuel/GHG Demand Cropland Water Labor Crop Production Natl. Inputs Markets Domestic Demand Export Processing Import Other Resources Pasture Land AUM Grazing Livestock Production Feed Mixing Model Economic Structure Sector Model Economic Structure Household Demand Land Feed Demand Water Domestic Demand Labor Processing Demand Grazing Export Demand Aggregate Supply and Demand Processing Supply Nat Inputs Import Supply Primary Commodities Cotton Corn Soybeans Sorghum SOFT HRWW DURW HRSW Rice Oats Barley Potatoes Silage Hay Alfalfa Sugarcane Sugarbeet Tomatofrsh Tomatoproc Orangefrsh Orangeproc Grpfrtfrsh Grpfrtproc SwitchGras HybrPoplar Willow Cornres SorgRes RiceRes WheatRes OatsRes BarleyRes Sheep HogFarrow StockSCav VealCalf Beefcows CowCalf FeedPig StockHCav Turkeys BioManure BeefFeed PigFinish StockSYea Broilers Dairy OthLvstk StockHYea Eggs Secondary Commodities OrangeJuic HFCS Canning DDG Dextrose FedBeef Turkey SkimMilk Butter IceCream Bagasse EdTallow GrpfrtJuic Beverages RefSugar CornStarch FrozenPot NonFedBeef WoolClean Cream AmCheese SoybeanMeal Confection GlutenMeal CornOil DriedPot Pork FluidMilkwhol EvapCondM OtCheese Lignin NonEdTallow LigninHardwd LigninSoftwd YellowGrease CropEthanol CellEthanol Biodiesel MktGasBlend SubGasBlend Tbtus SoybeanOil Baking GlutenFeed CornSyrup ChipPot Chicken FluidMilkLowFat NonFatDryM CottageChe BiodieselWO FASOM Agricultural Regions Pacific Northwest West East Pacific Rocky Mountains Southwest Great Plains Lake States Northeast Corn Belt South West Southeast South Central Foreign Regions in FASOM 26 22 23 27 21 19 26 20 8 13 10 12 7 2 25 14 6 11 16 5 15 1 29 3 28 15 17 30 FASOM has supply and demand curves for corn, 4 types of wheat, soybeans, rice and sorghum across the above regions and within 11 major US regions where the region trades the commodity. FASOM also maintains transportation costs between all regions. The model determines exports to the point where prices are in equilibrium considering transport across all markets. Modeled Beef Cattle Flow First Grazing Steer Calves Steer Calf Stockers Program Second Grazing Cow/Calf Cull Cows •Beef Steer Calves •Beef Heifer Calves •Cull Cows Steer Yearling Stockers Feedlot Beef Yearlings Feedlot Beef Calves Heifer Yearling Stockers Bulls Replacement Breeding Stock Program Second Grazing Heifer Calves First Grazing Program Program Heifer Calf Stockers Non-Fed Beef Slaughter Feedlot Beef Slaughter Modeled Dairy Cattle Flow Non-Fed Beef Slaughter Feedlot Beef Slaughter Steer Yearling Stockers Feedlot Beef Yearlings Dairy Cull Cows Dairy Raw Fluid Milk •Milk •Dairy Steer Calves •Dairy Heifer Calves •Cull Dairy Cows Dairy Steer Calves* Second Grazing Steer Calves First Grazing Program Program Steer Calf Stockers Feedlot Beef Calves Bulls Replacement Breeding Stock Dairy Heifer Calves *Dairy Steer Calves merge in with the Steer Calves in the Beef Cattle Flow Rift Valley Fever An emerging disease and agro-bio-terror threat • • • • Mosquito-borne viral disease of livestock and humans Transmission modulated by weather Demonstrated ability to travel Unknown outside Africa and Arabian Peninsula Appearance in US expected to impact agriculture sector severely • • Cost of cattle illness and death Potential bans on US livestock Limited analytic tools to support decisionmaking or operational planning • • French vector model USDA/NASA risk assessment method Epidemic/Economic Modeling Biology and Epidemiology Disease Vectors Infection Modeling Subject Matter Experts Costs & Impacts Analysis Estimates Environment Animal Production Economics Items changed in FASOM/ASM for Rift Study For both beef and dairy on a geographic basis Calving rate Adult beef production (Deaths and culling) Culled cattle (those who lost calves) Replacement needs (lost adults and lost replacements) Milk production (Deaths and cows that lost calves) In model other indirect effects Feed usage Calf movement Released feed usage expanded elsewhere (exports, biofuels) Regional locus of feeding Production Commodity prices Dairy and beef products High Plains FMD Epidemic/Economic Modeling • 64 scenarios over various outbreak and disease mitigation scenarios – Early detection vs. late detection – Ring vs. targeted vaccination – Adequate vs. inadequate vaccine availability – Regular vs. enhanced surveillance – Slaughter options: ring slaughter, slaughter of infected, and slaughter of dangerous contacts AusSpread • Output – Duration of epidemic in weeks – Expected number of infected herds – Expected number of dangerous contacts – Expected slaughter – Expected vaccination Integration into FASOM • Unlike Rift, FMD affects more than cattle • Adjustment of sheep and swine budgets as well • Estimate percentage impacts and adjust budgets by these percentages • Spatially lock infected region at the production level Specific Adjustments • • • • • • • Cow/Calf Dairy Milk Sheep Wool Feeder Pig Production Hog Farrow to Finish Example: Dairy • Dairy budgets are on a per cow basis • A single dairy cow produces, on average a certain amount of milk and a certain amount of dairy calves each year as well as cull cows • To do this she needs a certain amount of inputs • The conversion of FMD effects into percentage allows the modeler to adjust these outputs across an entire region • the model automatically shifts input to alternative uses Baseline Specification Average Units / Description base.Silage -6.600 US tons for dairy production base.Hay -5.060 US tons for dairy production base.Milk 193.906 100 lbs of raw milk base.CullDairyCows 1.657 100 lbs of cull dairy calves base.DairyCalves 2.057 100 lbs of dairy calves base.biomanure 4.940 base.SoybeanMeal 0.860 tons manure available for bioprocesses tons soybean meal base.DairyCon0 108.529 base.Pasture 1.750 100 lbs grain blend for dairy cattle Acres of pasture land base.Labor 31.587 Hours base.othercosts 1272.391 Dollars base.Profit 1435.851 base.Head 1.000 Dollar difference between revenues and costs Budget is for one animal Code in FASOM *adjust budgets for slaughter livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves") $(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves") and avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains",herdcomponent)) =(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves") -2.057*(avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","infected")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","immune")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","dead"))); *handle milk loss livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk") $(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk") and avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains",herdcomponent)) =(livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk")* (1-(avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","latent")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","infected")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","immune")+ avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains“,“dead”))); Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Economic Impacts Welfare for Agriculture Base millions Large Feedlot (1) Early Detection Grazing Operation (57) Late Detection (15) Early Detection Backyard (7) Late Detection (40) Early Detection (16) Late Detection US Consumers US Processors US Producers $1,587,043 -$218 -$354 -$64 $163 $172 -$21,106 $2,681 $13 $0.0142 $13 -$15 -$44 $46 $54,951 -$22,384 -$44,849 -$1,514 -$3,498 -$4,213 -$7,108,210 $1,644,676 -$22,590 -$45,203 -$1,565 -$3,350 -$4,085 -$7,129,270 US Total Foreign Consumers Foreign Producers Rest Total Total Globally $188,107 -$87 -$89 -$65 -$37 -$62 -$1,691 $15,039 $21 $19 $10 -$15 -$10 $1,329 $203,146 -$66 -$70 -$54 -$53 -$72 -$362 -$22,656 -$45,274 -$1,620 -$3,404 $1,847,823 -$4,158 -$7,129,632 Costs for Disease Management and Carcass Disposal • Disease Management – Vaccination (per head and per farm) – Testing (per farm) – Surveillance (per farm/ per visit) • Carcass Disposal – Appraisal (per farm) – Euthanasia (per head) – Disposal (per farm) – Cleaning and Disinfecting (per farm) Average Costs Across Scenarios • Disease Management – $5,912,086.82 • Carcass Disposal – $39,998,352.68 Average Across Scenarios: $45,910,439.5 Price Changes from Pre-Event Base • Drops in – Cotton, soybeans, wheat, barley, silage , hay and sugarcane (less than 1%) – Feeder Pig prices dropped about 15% across scenarios – Feeder calves, stocker calves dropped 2-7% – Not much change in cattle yearlings • Prices Increased for – Fresh vegetables and raw milk (less than 1%) – Broilers, pork and fed beef (small 0.1 – 2%) – Generally no change in lamb • Certain late detection, backyard index cases were exceptions. – Very large drops and increases (15-40%) – Rarely, dairy calves and steer calves dropped almost 100%.