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4.1 Introduction The field of statistical inference consist of those methods used to make decisions or to draw conclusions about a population. These methods utilize the information contained in a sample from the population in drawing conclusions. Statistical Inference may be divided into two major areas: parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. Definition 2.1: An Interval Estimate In interval estimation, an interval is constructed around the point estimate and it is stated that this interval is likely to contain the corresponding population parameter. Definition 2.2: Confidence Level and Confidence Interval Each interval is constructed with regard to a given confidence level and is called a confidence interval. The confidence level associated with a confidence interval states how much confidence we have that this interval contains the true population parameter. The confidence level is denoted by 1 100% . 2 Confidence Intervals Population Mean σ Known Population Proportion σ Unknown EQT 373 The (1 )100% Confidence Interval of Population Mean, (i) x z 2 n if is known and normally distributed population or x z x z 2 2 n n s (ii) x z if is unknown, n large (n 30) 2 n s s or x z x z 2 2 n n 4 s (iii) x tn 1, if is unknown, normally distributed population 2 n and small sample size n 30 s s or x tn 1, x tn 1, 2 2 n n 5 If a random sample of size n 20 from a normal population with the variance 2 225 has the mean x 64.3, construct a 95% confidence interval for the population mean, . 6 It is known that, n 20, x 64.3 and 15 For 95% CI, 95% 100(1 – )% 1 – 0.95 0.05 2 0.025 z z0.025 1.96 2 7 Hence, 95% CI x z n 2 15 64.3 1.96 20 64.3 6.57 [57.73, 70.87] @ 57.73 70.87 Thus, we are 95% confident that the mean of random variable is between 57.73 and 70.87 8 Example 2.2 : A publishing company has just published a new textbook. Before the company decides the price at which to sell this textbook, it wants to know the average price of all such textbooks in the market. The research department at the company took a sample of 36 comparable textbooks and collected the information on their prices. This information produced a mean price RM 70.50 for this sample. It is known that the standard deviation of the prices of all such textbooks is RM4.50. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean price of all such college textbooks. 9 solution It is known that, n 36, x RM70.50 and RM 4.50 For 90% CI, 90% 100(1 – )% 1 – 0.90 0.1 2 0.05 z z0.05 1.65 2 10 Hence, 90% CI x z n 2 4.50 70.50 1.65 36 70.50 1.24 [ RM 69.26, RM 71.74] Thus, we are 90% confident that the mean price of all such college textbooks is between RM69.26 and RM71.74 11 2.1.2 The (1 )100% Confidence Interval Estimates on the Differences between Two Population Means, 1 2 x x z (i) 1 2 12 2 n1 22 n2 if 1 and 2 is known and normally distributed population (ii) x x z 1 2 n1 30, 2 s12 s2 2 if 1 and 2 is unknown, n large n1 n2 n2 30 s12 s2 2 s12 s2 2 or x1 x 2 z , x1 x 2 z 2 2 n1 n2 n1 n2 12 (iii) x1 x2 tv, 2 s12 s2 2 if ( 1 , 2 ) is unknown, normally distributed n1 n2 population and small sample size n1 30, n2 30 2 s12 s2 2 n n 1 2 with v 2 2 2 2 1 s1 1 s2 n1 1 n1 n2 1 n2 13 for (ii) and (iii) cases, if ( 1 , 2 ) is unknown but we assume 1 2 = , the pooled estimator S p is used to estimate , then the formula is given as follows: for large sample size n1 30, n2 30 , x1 x2 z S p 2 1 1 n1 n2 for small sample size n1 30, n2 30 x1 x2 tn n 2, 2 S p 1 with S p 2 1 1 n1 n2 n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 n1 n2 2 14 Example 2.3 : The scientist wondered whether there was a difference in the average daily intakes of dairy products between men and women. He took a sample of n =50 adult women and recorded their daily intakes of dairy products in grams per day. He did the same for adult men. A summary of his sample results is listed below. Men Women Sample size 50 50 Sample mean 780 grams per day 762 grams per day Sample standard deviation 35 30 Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference in the average daily intakes of daily products for men and women. Can you conclude that there is a difference in the average daily intakes of daily products for men and women? 15 Solution Hence, 95% CI : s2 s 2 1 2 x1 x 2 z 780 762 1.96 n1 n2 2 35 50 2 50 30 2 18 12.78 [5.22,30.78] Thus, we should be willing to conclude that there is a difference in the average daily intakes of daily products for men and women as 1 2 0 there is no difference between two population means is not one of the possible values for (1 2 ). 16 The (1 )100% Confidence Interval for p for Large Samples ( n 30) pˆ z 2 pˆ 1 pˆ n or pˆ z pˆ 1 pˆ 2 n p pˆ z pˆ 1 pˆ 2 n 17 Example 2.4 According to the analysis of Women Magazine in June 2005, “Stress has become a common part of everyday life among working women in Malaysia. The demands of work, family and home place an increasing burden on average Malaysian women”. According to this poll, 40% of working women included in the survey indicated that they had a little amount of time to relax. The poll was based on a randomly selected of 1502 working women aged 30 and above. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the corresponding population proportion. 18 Solution Let p be the proportion of all working women age 30 and above, who have a limited amount of time to relax, and let pˆ be the corresponding sample proportion. From the given information, n 1502 , pˆ 0.40, qˆ 1 pˆ 1 – 0.40 0.60 ˆ Hence, 95% CI p z 2 ˆˆ pq n 0.40(0.60) 0.40 1.96 1502 0.40 0.02478 [0.375, 0.425] or 37.5% to 42.5% Thus, we can state with 95% confidence that the proportion of all working women aged 30 and above who have a limited amount of time to relax is between 37.5% and 42.5%. 19 2.1.4 The (1 )100% Confidence Interval Estimates for the Differences between Two Proportions, P1 P2 , (n1 30, n2 30) pˆ1 pˆ 2 z 2 pˆ1 1 pˆ1 pˆ 2 1 pˆ 2 n1 n2 20 Example 2.5: A researcher wanted to estimate the difference between the percentages of users of two toothpastes who will never switch to another toothpaste. In a sample of 500 users of Toothpaste A taken by this researcher, 100 said that the will never switch to another toothpaste. In another sample of 400 users of Toothpaste B taken by the same researcher, 68 said that they will never switch to another toothpaste. Construct a 97% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of all users of the two toothpastes who will never switch. 21 Solutions Toothpaste A : n1 = 500 and x1 = 100 Toothpaste B : n2 = 400 and x2 = 68 The sample proportions are calculated; pˆ1 100 68 0.20; pˆ 2 0.17 500 400 A 97% confidence interval ; pˆ1 pˆ 2 Z 2 pˆ1 (1 pˆ1 ) pˆ 2 (1 pˆ 2 ) n1 n2 0.20(0.80) 0.17(0.83) 0.20 0.17 2.17 500 400 0.03 0.05628 [0.026, 0.086] Thus, with 97% confidence we can state that the difference between the two population proportions is between -0.026 and 0.086. 22 Determining Sample Size For the Mean For the Proportion EQT 373 The required sample size can be found to reach a desired margin of error (e) with a specified level of confidence (1 - ). The margin of error is also called error of estimation Definition 2.3 (Estimating the Population Mean): If x is used as an estimate of , we can be 100(1- )% confident that the error | x | will not exceed a specified amount E when the sample size is z n /2 E 2 24 Determining Sample Size For the Mean X Z /2 n Sampling error (margin of error) e Z /2 n If = 45, what sample size is needed to estimate the mean within ± 5 with 90% confidence Z 2 σ 2 (1.645) 2 (45) 2 n 2 219.19 2 e 5 So the required sample size is n = 220 (Always round up) Example 2.7: A team of efficiency experts intends to use the mean of a random sample of size n=150 to estimate the average mechanical aptitude of assembly-line workers in a large industry (as measured by a certain standardized test). If, based on experience, the efficiency experts can assume that 6.2 for such data, what can they assert with probability 0.99 about the maximum error of their estimate? 27 Solutions Substituting n 150, 6.2, and z0.005 2.575 into the expression for the maximum error, we get E z / 2 n 2.575(6.2) 1.30 150 Thus, the efficiency experts can assert with probability 0.99 that their error will be less than 1.30. 28 x If pˆ is used as an estimate of p, we can assert with n (1- )100% confidence that the error is less than z /2 If we set E z /2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) . n pˆ (1 pˆ ) and solve for n, the appropriate n sample size is 2 z /2 n pˆ (1 pˆ ) E 29 Determining Sample Size For the Proportion eZ pˆ (1- pˆ ) n Now solve for n to get Z 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n e2 EQT 373 Example 2.8 How large a sample would be necessary to estimate the true proportion defective in a large population within ±3%, with 95% confidence? (Assume a sample yields p = 0.12) Solution: For 95% confidence, we have Zα/2 = 1.96 e = 0.03; p = 0.12 Z / 2 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) (1.96) 2 (0.12)(1 0.12) n 450.74 2 2 e (0.03) So use n = 451 Example 2.9: A study is made to determine the proportion of voters in a sizable community who favor the construction of a nuclear power plant. If 140 of 400 voters selected at random favor the 140 project and we use pˆ 400 0.35 as an estimate of the actual proportion of all voters in the community who favor the project, what can we say with 99% confidence about the maximum error? 32 Solution Substituting n 400, pˆ 0.35, and z0.005 2.575 into the formula, we get E z /2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n (0.35)(0.65) 2.575 0.061 400 Thus, if we use pˆ 0.35 as an estimate of the actual proportion of voters in the community who favor the project, we can assert with 99% confidence that the error is less than 0.061. 33 Example 2.10: How large a sample required if we want to be 95% confident that the error in using p̂ to estimate p is less than 0.05? If pˆ 0.12, find the required sample size. 34 Solution 2 z0.025 n pˆ (1 pˆ ) E 2 1.96 0.12(0.88) 163 0.05 35 Hypothesis and Test Procedures A statistical test of hypothesis consist of : 1. The Null hypothesis, H 0 2. The Alternative hypothesis, H1 3. The test statistic and its p-value 4. The rejection region 5. The conclusion 36 Definition 2.5: Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether a statement about the value of a population parameter should or should not be rejected. Null hypothesis, H0 : A null hypothesis is a claim (or statement) about a population parameter that is assumed to be true. (the null hypothesis is either rejected or fails to be rejected.) Alternative hypothesis, H1 : An alternative hypothesis is a claim about a population parameter that will be true if the null hypothesis is false. Test Statistic is a function of the sample data on which the decision is to be based. p-value is the probability calculated using the test statistic. The smaller the p-value, the more contradictory is the data to H 0 . 37 Definition 2.6: p-value The p-value is the smallest significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected. Using the p value approach, we reject the null hypothesis, H 0 if p value for one tailed test p value 2 for two tailed test and we do not reject the null hypothesis, H 0 if p value for one tailed test p value 2 for two tailed test 38 1. State the null hypothesis, H1 hypothesis, H0 and the alternative 2. Choose the level of significance, and the sample size, n 3. Determine the appropriate test statistic 4. Determine the critical values that divide the rejection and non rejection regions 5. Collect data and compute the value of the test statistic 6. Make the statistical decision and state the managerial conclusion. If the test statistic falls into the non rejection region, do not reject the null hypothesis H0. If the test statistic falls into the rejection region, reject the null hypothesis. Express the managerial conclusion in the context of the problem It is not always obvious how the null and alternative hypothesis should be formulated. When formulating the null and alternative hypothesis, the nature or purpose of the test must also be taken into account. We will examine: 1) The claim or assertion leading to the test. 2) The null hypothesis to be evaluated. 3) The alternative hypothesis. 4) Whether the test will be two-tail or one-tail. 5) A visual representation of the test itself. In some cases it is easier to identify the alternative hypothesis first. In other cases the null is easier. 40 Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis • Many applications of hypothesis testing involve an attempt to gather evidence in support of a research hypothesis. • In such cases, it is often best to begin with the alternative hypothesis and make it the conclusion that the researcher hopes to support. • The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true is made if the sample data provide sufficient evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be rejected. 41 Example: A new drug is developed with the goal of lowering blood pressure more than the existing drug. • • Alternative Hypothesis: The new drug lowers blood pressure more than the existing drug. Null Hypothesis: The new drug does not lower blood pressure more than the existing drug. 42 Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be Challenged • We might begin with a belief or assumption that a statement about the value of a population parameter is true. • We then using a hypothesis test to challenge the assumption and determine if there is statistical evidence to conclude that the assumption is incorrect. • In these situations, it is helpful to develop the null hypothesis first. 43 Example: The label on a soft drink bottle states that it contains at least 67.6 fluid ounces. • • Null Hypothesis: The label is correct. µ > 67.6 ounces. Alternative Hypothesis: The label is incorrect. µ < 67.6 ounces. 44 Example: Average tire life is 35000 miles. • Null Hypothesis: µ = 35000 miles • Alternative Hypothesis: µ 35000 miles 45 How to decide whether to reject or accept H 0 ? The entire set of values that the test statistic may assume is divided into two regions. One set, consisting of values that support the H1 and lead to reject H 0 , is called the rejection region. The other, consisting of values that support the H 0 is called the acceptance region. Tails of a Test Two-Tailed Test Left-Tailed Test Right-Tailed Test = < > Rejection Region In both tail In the left tail In the right tail Rejection Region Z z 2 or Z z 2 Sign in Sign in H0 H1 Z< z Z z 2.2.1 a) Testing Hypothesis on the Population Mean, H 0 : 0 Null Hypothesis : Test Statistic : Z x n Z x s • any population, is known and n is large or • normal population, is known and n is small • any population, is unknown and n is large n t x s n • normal population, is unknown and n is small v n 1 47 Example 2.11 The average monthly earnings for women in managerial and professional positions is RM 2400. Do men in the same positions have average monthly earnings that are higher than those for women ? A random sample of n 40 men in managerial and professional positions showed x RM 3600 and s RM 400. Test the appropriate hypothesis using 0.01 48 Solution 1.The hypothesis to be tested are, H 0 : 2400 H1 : 2400 2.We use normal distribution n 30 3. Rejection Region : Z z ; z z0.01 2.33 4. Test Statistic Z x 3600 2400 18.97 s 400 n 40 Since 18.97 2.33, falls in the rejection region, we reject H 0 and conclude that average monthly earnings for men in managerial and professional positions are significantly higher than those for women. 49 1 2 H 0 : 1 2 0 Null Hypothesis : Test statistics: x x Z 1 2 1 2 1 n1 2 2 2 n2 x x Z 1 2 1 2 s12 s2 2 n1 n2 x x Z 1 2 Sp with S p • 1 For two large and independent samples and 1 and 2 are known. For two large and independent samples • and 1 and 2 are unknown. (Assume 1 2 ) 2 1 1 n1 n2 n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 • For two large and independent samples and 1 and 2 are unknown. (Assume 1 2 ) n1 n2 2 50 x x t 1 2 Sp 1 2 1 1 n1 n2 v n1 n2 2 x x t 1 2 1 2 2 2 s1 s2 n1 n2 For two small and independent samples • and 1 and 2 are unknown. (Assume 1 2 ) • For two small and independent samples taken from two normally distributed populations. 1 and 2 are unknown. (Assume 1 2 ) 2 s12 s2 2 n1 n2 v 2 2 1 s12 1 s2 2 n1 1 n1 n2 1 n2 51 Alternative hypothesis Rejection Region H1 : 1 2 0 Z z 2 or Z z 2 H1 : 1 2 0 Z z H1 : 1 2 0 Z< z 52 Example 2.12 A university conducted an investigation to determine whether car ownership affects academic achievement was based on two random samples of 100 male students, each drawn from the student body. The grade point average for the n1 100 non owners of cars had an average and variance equal to x1 2.70 and s12 0.36 as opposed to x 2 2.54 and s2 2 0.40 for the n2 100 car owners. Do the data present sufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean achievements between car owners and non owners of cars ? Test using 0.05 53 Solution The hypothesis to be tested are , H 0 : 1 2 0 H1 : 1 2 0 Therefore, test statistic is x x Z Z 1 2 1 s12 s2 2 n1 n2 2 2.70 2.54 1.84 0.36 0.40 100 100 54 Rejection Region : Z z 2 or Z z 2 ; z0.05 2 z0.025 1.96 Do Not Reject H Reject H 0 Reject H 0 z=-1.96 0 z=+1.96 Since 1.84 does not exceed 1.96 and not less than 1.96, we fail to reject H 0 and that is, there is not sufficient evidence to declare that there is a difference in the average academic achievement for the two groups. 55 Null Hypothesis : Test Statistic : Alternative hypothesis H1 : p p0 H 0 : p p0 pˆ p0 Z p0 q0 n Rejection Region Z z 2 or Z z H1 : p p0 Z z H1 : p p0 Z< z 2 56 Example 2.13 When working properly, a machine that is used to make chips for calculators does not produce more than 4% defective chips. Whenever the machine produces more than 4% defective chips it needs an adjustment. To check if the machine is working properly, the quality control department at the company often takes sample of chips and inspects them to determine if the chips are good or defective. One such random sample of 200 chips taken recently from the production line contained 14 defective chips. Test at the 5% significance level whether or not the machine needs an adjustment. 57 Solution The hypothesis to be tested are , H 0 : p 0.04 H1 : p 0.04 Test statistic is pˆ p0 0.07 0.04 Z 2.17 p0 q0 0.04(0.96) 200 n Rejection Region : Z z ; z z0.05 1.65 Since 2.17 1.65, falls in the rejection region, we can reject H 0 and conclude that the machine needs an adjustment. 58 p1 p2 Null Hypothesis : Test Statistics Z H 0 : p1 p2 0 : pˆ1 pˆ 2 p1 p2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) pˆ (1 pˆ ) n1 n2 where pˆ x1 x2 n1 n2 pˆ1 pˆ 2 p1 p2 Z 1 1 ˆ ˆ pq n1 n2 59 Alternative hypothesis Rejection Region H1 : p1 p2 0 Z z 2 or Z z 2 H1 : p1 p2 0 Z z H1 : p1 p2 0 Z< z 60 Example 2.14: Reconsider Example 2.5, At the significance level 1%, can we conclude that the proportion of users of Toothpaste A who will never switch to another toothpaste is higher than the proportion of users of Toothpaste B who will never switch to another toothpaste? 61 Solution The hypothesis to be tested are , H 0 : p1 p2 0 H1 : p1 p2 0 p1 is not greater than p2 p1 is greater than p2 Therefore, test statistic is Z pˆ1 pˆ 2 p1 p2 Z 1 1 ˆ ˆ pq n1 n2 Rejection Region : Z z 0.20 0.17 0 1 1 (0.187)(0.813) 500 400 1.15 ; z0.01 2.33 Since 1.15 2.33, we fail to reject H 0 and therefore, we conclude that the proportions of users of Toothpaste A who will never switch to another toothpaste is not greater than the proportion of users of Toothpaste B who will never switch to another toothpaste. 62