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Grade Montclair Public Schools CCSS Algebra 2 High Honors Unit: Marshall A.b. 9 or 11 Unit # 4 Pacing Subject Algebra 2 High Honors Unit Name Overview Inferences and Conclusions From Data Marking Period 4 In this unit, students see how the visual displays and summary statistics they learned in earlier grades relate to different types of data and to probability distributions. They identify and evaluate different ways of collecting data—including sample surveys, experiments, and simulations—and the role that randomness and careful design play in the conclusions that can be drawn. Students also investigate arithmetic and geometric sequences both recursively and with an explicit formula, use them to model situations, and translate between the two forms. Standard # MC, SC, or AC SLO # Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and, ”not”). Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent. AC 1 AC 2 3 S.CP.3 Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. AC S.CP.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a AC S.CP.1 S.CP.2 1: 20132014 Standard Student Learning Objectives Depth of Knowledge Define a sample space and events within a sample space. Identify subsets from the sample space given defined events, including unions, intersections, or complements of events. Identify two events as independent or not. Explain Properties of Independence and Conditional Probabilities in context and in simple English. 1 4 5 Define and calculate conditional probabilities. Use the Multiplication Principle to decide if two events are independent and to calculate conditional probabilities. 2 3 6 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data for two categorical variables. Calculate probabilities from the table. 3 1 2 sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results. Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer. Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model. Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model. S.CP.5 S.CP.6 S.CP.7 S.IC.1 S.IC.2 2: 20132014 7 Use probabilities from a two-way frequency table to evaluate independence of two variables. AC 8 Use everyday language to explain independence and conditional probability in real-world situations. 3 AC 9 Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes that also belong to A 2 AC 10 Apply the addition [P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)] rule of probability in a uniform probability model; interpret the results in terms of the model. 2 11 Explore the difference and similarity of addition rule when A and B are not conditional events Describe the difference between a population and a sample 2 Make inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. For example: if 70% of all students voted for Joe Mama, then approximately how many in a class of 25 students voted for Joe Mama? Explain how well and why a sample represents the variable of interest from a population. 2 15 Demonstrate understanding of the different kinds of sampling methods. 2 16 Design simulations of random sampling: assign digits in 4 Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population. ★ SC Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0. 5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model? SC 12 13 14 1 3 appropriate proportions for events, carry out the simulation using random number generators and random number tables and explain the outcomes in context of the population and the known proportions. S.IC.3 Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each. S.IC.4 Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. 3: 20132014 MC MC 17 Calculate chi-squared values and degrees of freedom; compare to statistics tables at 95% confidence to determine if a given model is appropriate 2 18 Understand reasonable doubt in the context of probability 19 Identify different methods and purposes for conducting sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies. 4 20 Explain how randomization relates to each. Example of random events are reaching into a bag to draw a colored marble or taking from a hat a folded piece of paper with a number . 2 21 Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling. 3 22 Using collected data, calculate the estimated population proportion and estimated population mean. 2 23 Calculate a margin of error for a given confidence interval. 2 S.IC.5 S.IC.6 Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant. Evaluate reports based on data. MC 24 Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments and use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant; evaluate reports based on data. 3 25 As the saying goes, “Statistics don’t lie, but liars use statistics.” Discuss results of experiment by initiating questions such as: 3 F.BF.2 A.SSE.4 Write arithmetic and geometric sequences both recursively and with an explicit formula, use them to model situations, and translate between the two forms. Derive the formula for the sum of a finite geometric series (when the common ratio is not 1), and use the formula to solve problems. For example, calculate mortgage payments. Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, S.ID.2 4: 20132014 MC MC 26 What is the purpose of the study? Were the collection methods appropriate for this particular study? Were they randomized? What was the null hypothesis? Were the correct statistical tests used for the data? Was the data fully presented? Who were the study participants? Who funded the study? Can bias arise from that? Write arithmetic and geometric sequences both recursively and with an explicit formula, use them to model situations, and translate between the two forms. 3 27 Derive the formula for the sum of a finite geometric series (when the common ratio is not 1), and use the formula to solve problems. 4 28 Use finite geometric series to calculate a car loan or mortgage payment. 3 29 Extend the content of finite geometric series to infinite geometric series to understand how repeating decimals are representations of infinite geometric series. 30 Calculate mean and standard deviation of a set of data 31 Use percentages in the context of standard deviation to AC 2 1 standard deviation) of two or more different data sets. Mathematical Practice # determine how many in a sample will fall within certain parameters. For example: If a set of data has a mean of 10 and standard deviation of 3, then out of a 500 sample, how many will have a value between 7 and 16? 3 Selected Opportunities for Connections to Mathematical Practices 1 2 SLOs 3, 11 SLOs 14, 15, 24, 25 3 5, 18, 24 4 5 6 7 8 16, 24 13, 25, 31 4, 17, 28, 30 10, 11, 27 27, 29 Big Ideas 1. 2. 3. Statistics are a useful tool for describing data; they can also be easily misinterpreted Certain statistics do not paint the full picture when it comes to a set of data Critical decisions are often made based upon the collection of data Essential Questions How to we become ‘statistically literate’ Americans so that we are not fooled into believing false or misleading data? What questions should we ask ourselves when presented with data preceded with the statement ‘Studies show that….’? At what point do we say ‘unusual’ data is due to chance versus due to a faulty model? In what ways can we construct an experiment in order to achieve true results as opposed to biased ones? Assessments Formal and informal formative and summative assessments as determined by the teacher Algebra 2 High Honors Unit 4 Model Assessment is a 90-minute, double-class-period assessment that should be administered at the end of the 5: 20132014 year, allowing enough time for grading and subsequent reviewing of material. Key Vocabulary Standard deviation Degrees of freedom Chi-squared Experiment vs. observation Randomization Margin of error Suggested Resources (list specific chapters and or page numbers from existing text that correspond to the SLOs and Standards) SLOs 1-5, 8-11 see Glencoe Algebra 2 Ch 12-4 thru 12-6 SLOs 14-16 see Glencoe Algebra 2 Ch 12-7 SLO 23 see Glencoe Algebra 2 Ch 12-8 SLOs 26-28 see Glencoe Algebra 2 Ch 11-3 & 11-4 SLOs 29-30 see Glencoe Algebra 2 Ch 6-8 & 6-9 All other SLOs see www.shmoop.com and type in corresponding standard 6: 20132014