Download Mexico - WikiLeaks

Mexico
Despite macroeconomic stability and a market that is integrated with the United
States, Mexico faces obstacles in economic deregulation, competition and
investment. The risk of insurgent activity has been localized, largely limited to southcentral Mexico; cartel violence takes place countrywide. Cargo theft is significant;
rampant corruption and lack of coordination among law enforcement continue to
exacerbate the problem.
Terrorism and Insurrection [UP]
Mexico has no notable presence of international terrorist groups, although the country is
home to several rebel movements, including the Zapatista Army for National Liberation and
the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), which operate mostly in the southern and
southeastern regions. Of these groups, the EPR is considered the most dangerous because
of its recent attacks and threat of future attacks against Mexico’s energy infrastructure.
Crime [UP]
Organized crime, primarily related to drug trafficking, is prevalent in Mexico. Calderon has
launched a counternarcotics campaign in several states, which has produced relatively
successful results against cartels though resolution is nowhere in sight. Theft of all kind - including cargo theft -- is a consistent problem. In general, however, crime -- both petty
and organized -- is out of control. The roads (with some exceptions) are lawless. Police are
often complicit. There also is significant risk of abduction throughout the country, particularly
in Mexico City.
Political and Regulatory Environment [UP]
A member of the center-right National Action Party, President Felipe Calderon has
successfully sought is seeking significant labor and fiscal reforms and has turned his
focus to tackling Mexico’s energy crisis. He has met serious opposition to energy
reform, but is working across party line on a reform initiative. constitutional, fiscal
and economic reforms to promote competition and international investment in
Mexico’s energy and utility sectors. Economic constancy and job market improvements
promote national stability. Although there are still political challenges in southern Mexico,
Mexico’s overall political environment is growing more secure rather than less. Economic
transparency remains a challenge, though Calderon is seeking policies to encourage
increased transparency from the government and government-owned businesses. Mexico
remains a popular spot for international firms to establish businesses.
Labor Unrest and Action [EVEN]
Labor strikes are relatively common in Mexico, though they are typically quickly resolved by
negotiations with authorities. The risk of work stoppages is highest from state employees’
unions, especially those for teachers and health and social security workers. Labor has a
powerful political voice. Agricultural labor groups are engaged in have begun protests of
the North American Free Trade Agreement, which mandated the final elimination of duties
on U.S. agricultural products Jan. 1.
Natural Disasters [EVEN]
Mexico’s infrastructure is relatively extensive and well developed, which helps the
government cope well with natural disasters. However, within the individual states, the
roads are often of lower quality, posing some challenges to disaster response. Mexico has a
high rate of seismic activity and both the Pacific and the Gulf/Caribbean coasts are affected
annually by tropical storms and hurricanes, which can lead to disruptions in harvests and
distribution. Seasonal floods are possible in the south, in addition to droughts throughout
the south and Baja Peninsula.
International Frictions [UP]
Mexico enjoys robust relationships with much of the world. Currently, Mexico has more free
trade agreements than any other country; these include the North American Free Trade
Agreement, the EU Free Trade Agreement and numerous bilateral free trade deals with
other Latin American, Asian and European countries. Furthermore, Mexico is actively
seeking increased international trade. There is increasing tension along the U.S.-Mexican
border, where most disputes relate to issues such as drug trafficking, illegal immigrants and
immigration agreements. There have been increasing concerns in Mexico regarding the
deployment of U.S. National Guard forces on the U.S. side of the border, raising the
possibility of increased incidents involving casualties.
Nongovernmental Organizations [EVEN]
NGOs in Mexico have a significant political impact. Influential NGOs include the Roman
Catholic Church, worker and peasant groups, foreign NGOs that are inclined toward
socialism and anti-corruption groups. NGOs have targeted trade in the past and can
generate international support for their issues.