Download City of Castlegar Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Backgrounder

CASTLEGAR - FOOD & LOCAL AGRICULTURE
vulnerability & risk assessment backgrounder
Climate projections for Castlegar/ Columbia Basin
The overall climate change projections for the area are ‘hotter, dryer summers’ and ‘warmer wetter winters.’ This is mainly due to:
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Increased mean temperatures year-round
Increased precipitation in the winter, with more precipitation falling as rain at low elevations and more precipitation falling
as snow at higher elevations
Decreased precipitation in the summer
More frequent extreme events
More frost-free and growing degree days
Global climate change projections for agriculture
 According to the mainstream literature, food availability is not projected to decrease on a global level to 2080 and is
expected to be sufficient to meet the needs of the growing global population, due to:
o increases in overall crop yields due to the CO2 fertilization effect
o increases in agricultural production in some regions of the world
o increased temperatures and precipitation to offset decreases in regions of the world.
 Even if the expected CO2 fertilization effect, which will boost crop productivity, is discounted, food availability over the next
century is projected to be sufficient to meet the needs of the global population (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). The total
land and prime land areas in the world available for agriculture are expected to remain unchanged as a result of climate
change at current levels of 2,600 million and 2,000 million hectares respectively (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). Some
researchers suggest that only half of the world’s agricultural land is currently being farmed, suggesting that there is
considerable extra capacity (WBGU, 2007).
 Overall agricultural food production and crop yields will increase in high latitude temperate areas, decrease in the low
latitudes and be mixed in the mid-latitudes.
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The declines in some low latitude areas could be significant with agricultural productivity in Central and South Asia projected
to decline by 5 to 30 percent by 2050.
Potential cropland at higher latitudes in developed countries will increase by 160 million ha and potential cropland at lower
latitudes in developing countries will decrease by 110 million ha (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007).
The quality of land in developing countries will decline by an even greater amount with a loss of 135 million ha of prime land
offset by an increase of about 20 million ha of moderately suitable land. The greatest losses of cropland are likely to be in
Africa, while the greatest expansion of cropland are likely to be in Russia and Central Asia.
It is projected that on a biophysical level, the ultimate impact of climate change on food security will likely be that global
food markets will provide sufficient food for those with purchasing power, while those without an adequate income who
cannot produce enough of their own food will become food insecure (Bals et al., 2008).
This analysis does not adequately account for:
o Indirect effects on social, economic and political structures
o non-linear effects or tipping points
o Climate change temperature increases beyond 3º
o A major increase in extreme events
o Non-climate change related events and factors
Vulnerability Assessment
Sub sector
Current
risks/
stresses
Future impact/
opportunity due to
climate change
BACKYARD GARDENS & MARKETS
insects Gardeners
Increased temps
more
anecdotally leading to increased
deal with
harmful insect/ pests
pest
populations and
outbreaks
decreasing yields.
insects new
Gardeners
anecdotally
deal with
new pests
insects Gardeners
beneficial rely on
pollinators
for some
crops
Increased temps
enabling a northward
migration of pests to
which the area is not
accustomed, potentially decreasing yields.
Increased temps
increase pollinator
populations and
beneficial insects
leading to increased
yields
Adaptive Capacity
(High, Medium,
Low)
Backyard gardeners
tend to plant a wide
variety of crops and
can change annual
plantings; safe/
organic pesticides
and alternative
options (companion
planting) are
available.
Backyard gardeners
tend to plant a wide
variety of crops and
can change annual
plantings; safe/
organic pesticides
are available.
Backyard gardeners
tend to plant a wide
variety of crops and
can change annual
plantings; safe/
organic pesticides
are available.
Vulnerability
(S x AC)
Consequence
(High, Med,
Low)
Probability
(High, Medium, Low)
An increase in the
number, change in the
mix and arrival of pests
and diseases is
expected, but very
hard to predict.
An increase in the
number, change in the
mix and arrival of pests
and diseases is
expected, but very
hard to predict.
An increase in the
number, change in the
mix and arrival of pests
and diseases is
expected, but very
hard to predict.
Risk
(C x P)
increased
productivity
new
crops
Higher annual
temperature averages
result in longer growing
season and increased
yields.
Anecdotal
reports of
increased
variety of
plants: fruit,
cantaloupe,
watermelon
etc.
Growing degree days
projected to increase
by XXXXXX days.
Longer growing season new crop opportunities
and increased yields
water &
irrigation
Less precip and
increased summer
temps increase water
and irrigation needs
chilling
requirements
Increased temps chilling requirements
not met, decreasing
fruit & nut crops yields
frost
damage
Higher annual temps
causing earlier budding
and late dormancy,
subjecting crops to
more frost damage and
decreasing yields
Frost free days
projected to increase,
but adaptability of
crops uncertain.
soil
matters
Increased temps and
reduced summer precip
causing changes to soil
organisms and reducing
or increasing crop yields
famers
market
Increased summer
temps increases storage
problems for vendors
and increasing costs/
decreasing profits
farmers
market
Increased summer
temps causing
discomfort for
customers and
decreasing profits for
vendors
REGIONAL GROWING
productivity:
livestock
productivity:
livestock
Increased summer
temps causing heat
stress on livestock and
decreasing productivity
Increased winter temps
resulting in earlier
livestock activity and
increased productivity
productivity:
livestock
Reduced summer precip
reducing water available
for crops - decreasing
crop productivity
irrigation
and costs
Less summer precip reduced availability of
feed for livestock
increasing costs for
farmers
irrigation
and costs
Reduced summer precip
increasing need for
irrigation and increasing
costs for farmers
productivity:
overall
lands
Increased wildfire risk
reduce use of
agricultural lands and
reduced productivity
productivity:
crops
Less snowpack at low
elevations - more deer increased predation on
crops and decreasing
yields; increasing costs
productivity:
livestock
Less snowpack at low
elevations - less
predation on livestock
and increased yields
productivity:
livestock
Les snowpack at low
elevations - greater frost
penetration, more crop
damage and decreased
yields
hunting /
gathering
Reduced snowpack at
low elevations improves
hunting opportunities
hunting /
gathering
Increased temps
increases warm water
fish species availability
and improving fishing
opportunities
hunting /
gathering
Increased temps reduce
cold water fish species
availability and reducing
fishing opportunities
hunting /
gathering
Shifting climates leading
to species migration to
more suitable climates
and increasing or
decreasing food sources
Increased humidity
causes increase in
mould/ fungi activity storage problems
storage & Anecdotal
process- reports of
sing
unidentifiable soil
fungi
Growing interest in
wild food places
pressure on wild
food stocks
Growing interest in
wild food places
pressure on wild
food stocks
Growing interest in
wild food places
pressure on wild
food stocks
productivity:
greenhouses
food
availability
food
availability
and costs
Increased cloud cover
reduces greenhouse
capacity and reduces
productivity?
Disruptions
occur
seasonally generally
event is
cleaned up
within a few
days
More extreme weather
(summer-fires; winteravalanches/ mudslides)
causing disruptions to
transportation routes less food available for
purchase
Decreased availability of
global crops increases
demand for local
products and increasing
profits for farmers
GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
local
Temp increases and
costs
reduced rainfall in other
parts of the world result
in less food available for
purchase from outside
the region/ increased
food costs
food
availability
Increased CO2
concentrations could
stimulate photosynthesis resulting in a
fertilizing effect on
many crops increasing
crop yields to offset
global decreases
local
costs
Extreme
events, such
as droughts
and
hurricanes
have already
caused crop
failures in
many parts
of the world
Increased frequency and
severity of extreme
events causing
disruptions to food
production, processing
and distribution,
resulting in higher food
prices locally
food
availability
Extreme
events, such
as droughts
and
hurricanes
have already
caused crop
failures in
many parts
of the world
Extreme events in
important growing
regions (droughts,
hurricanes) could cause
temporary shortages of
some foods
food
availability
Increased CO2 causing
increased ocean acidification, impacting the
viability of coral reefs
and other marine
organisms; increased
temps will impact
composition, productivity of water ecosystems resulting in
decreasing fish and
seafood availability
food
availability
Indirect effects of
climate change (political
unrest, economic
collapse) result in
reduced food supply to
the region
Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere
CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity
Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification
Higher Temperatures
Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3°
Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes
Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans
Less winter kill but increased thermal stress for livestock
Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires
Anything on the planning horizon can be
Which ones are speculative? baseline ‘medium sensitivity’ unless otherwise indicated as high
don’t know enough about soil and soil organisms?
don’t have enough information to go through certain items
pests ???
which ones are highly speculative/ spurious? which ones are low sensitivity?