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PSY 211: Exam #4 Course Reference # 22032197 Mike Hoerger Name: _____________________________ Part I. Multiple Choice (4 points each) Choose the best available response. 1 This statistic is not an example of an effect size a) p -- 93%, r = .27 b) r c) d 2 What is a hypothesis? a) Broad research question, aim, or goal motivating a particular study b) Detailed rationale explaining the logical basis for an observed finding c) Concise, testable statement describing the relationship between two variables -- 100%, r = .00 (too easy) 3 Drug companies generally design drugs and then try to find a use for them at a later date. In one study, they examine whether a new drug impacts appetite. What type of hypothesis test should they use? a) No-tail test b) One-tail test c) Two-tail test -- 73%, r = .16 4 What did William Kingdon Clifford say? a) “The danger to society is not merely that it should believe wrong things, though that is great enough; but that it should become credulous, and lose the habit of testing things and inquiring into them; for then it must sink back into savagery.” -- 84%, r = .36 b) “But if we are empiricists, if we believe that no bell in us tolls to let us know for certain when truth is in our grasp, then it seems a piece of idle fantasticality to preach so solemnly our duty of waiting for the bell.” c) “It is better to be a human being dissatisfied than a pig satisfied, better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied. And if the fool or the pig are a different opinion, it is because they only know their own side of the question.” 5 A null hypothesis states describes that there are no differences expected to occur at this level: a) measurement b) sample c) population -- 73%, r = .18 6 Effect size for r2 = .26 a) small b) medium c) large -- 89%, r = .27 7 The null hypothesis indicates: a) the effect will be negative, or opposite of expected b) an obtained difference will exceed chance c) no effect or no important difference -- 96%, r = .00 (too easy) 8 Term indicating that results from any two particular studies might differ slightly due to chance: a) sampling error -- 78%, r = .27 b) standard error of the mean c) carryover effects 9 The results of a multiple regression indicate that R2 = .20, p = .50. Is this result statistically significant? a) non-significant -- 78%, r = .27 b) significant c) not enough information 10 Using a more strict alpha level for a z-test will cause the critical z-value to a) become more extreme -- 58%, r = .55 b) stay the same c) become less extreme 11 What type of test might you use to determine whether female doctors reliably differ from their romantic partners on IQ? a) correlation b) between-group t-test c) within-subject t-test -- 69%, r = .73 12 What does a p-value describe? a) the probability that the result is reliable b) the probability that the result is due to chance -- 89%, r = .36 c) the probability that the result will replicate 13 Assume that the alternative hypothesis is accurate. If the researcher finds no effect, what has occurred? a) Type I error b) Type II error -- 87%, r = .18 c) Iatrogenic error 14 Effect size for Cohen’s d = .36 a) small -- 82%, r = .36 b) medium c) large 15 You have people rate how much they enjoy Coke and how much they enjoy Pepsi. The mean enjoyment rating for Coke is a bit higher than for Pepsi, and you find d = 1.25, t = 1.67, p = .63. How would you most likely get a result like this? a) large effect but a small sample -- 73%, r = .46 b) unusual sample c) poor methodology or survey items 16 This was not an example of a repeated-measured t-test discussed in class: a) Changes in tension before and after massage therapy b) Changes in physiological arousal before and after crossing an old bridge -- 85%, r = .16 c) Changes in sleepwalking before and after sleep deprivation 17 Which of the following distributions is the flattest? a) z distribution b) t distribution where n = 3 -- 80%, r = .64 c) t distribution where n = 37 18 Effect size for r = .42 a) small b) medium -- 91%, r = .18 c) large 19 This type of test is not used to compare a treated sampled to an untreated population. a) z-test b) single-sample t-test c) between-group t-test -- 69%, r = .46 20 There is no “depression gene” yet every year some researcher claims to have found it. The results are often reported on CNN and the other news networks, who fail to realize they are making this error. a) Type I error -- 84%, r = .27 b) Type II error c) Hindsight bias 21 Carefully examine the Output below for a series of between-group t-tests. The analyses compare “Early Birds” to “Night Owls” on five variables. Some information is missing or covered up. How many of the five results show a reliable group difference? Group Statistics 68. Depress ion 79. Pro-Environment 104. Neuroticism 106. Agreeableness 108. Delay of Gratification 17. Sleep Schedule Early Bird Night Owl Early Bird Night Owl Early Bird Night Owl Early Bird Night Owl Early Bird Night Owl N 95 184 95 184 95 184 95 184 95 184 Mean 3.55 4.01 6.83 6.83 4.68 5.08 6.99 6.66 6.18 5.52 Std. Deviation 2.123 1.994 2.272 2.024 2.335 2.231 1.533 1.591 1.896 1.740 Std. Error Mean .218 .147 .233 .149 .240 .164 .157 .117 .195 .128 Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances F 68. Depres sion 79. ProEnvironment 104. Neuroticism 106. Agreeableness 108. Delay of Gratification Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed a) 1 -- 62%, r = .91 b) 2 c) 3 .602 2.799 .598 .225 .986 t-test for Equality of Means Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Difference Std. Error Difference 277 .073 -.464 .258 -.971 .044 -1.764 180 .079 -.464 .263 -.982 .055 .000 277 1.000 .000 .267 -.525 .525 .000 172 1.000 .000 .277 -.546 .546 -1.368 277 .172 -.392 .286 -.956 .172 -1.349 183 .179 -.392 .291 -.965 .181 1.644 277 .101 .326 .199 -.064 .717 1.664 196 .098 .326 .196 -.061 .713 2.899 277 .004 .657 .227 .211 1.103 2.820 176 .005 .657 .233 .197 1.117 Sig. t df .439 -1.799 .095 .440 .636 .322 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper 22 Using the SPSS Output on the previous page, calculate the t-value for the group differences in Agreeableness, and choose the answer below closest to that t-value. a) 1.3 b) 1.7 -- 69%, r = .36 c) 2.1 23 Using the SPSS Output on the previous page, what would be the degrees of freedom for the analysis examining group differences in Neuroticism a) 277 -- 62%, r = .64 b) 278 c) 279 24 Study the following correlation table very carefully. The name of the first variable is blacked out. Based on the pattern of correlations, what might this variable be? Correlations 93. Happiness 45. Books Read in Past Year Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 59. Worrying 70. Parents Fought Growing Up 83. Self-Es teem Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N 93. Happiness 1 279 .036 45. Books Read in Past Year .036 .553 279 1 .553 70. Parents Fought 59. Growing Worrying Up -.284** -.111 .000 .065 279 279 -.070 -.044 .243 279 279 279 -.284** .000 279 -.111 .065 279 .587** .000 279 -.070 .243 279 -.044 .462 279 .017 .775 279 1 ??? 279 .181** .002 279 -.316** .000 279 .462 83. SelfEs teem .587** .000 279 .017 .775 279 279 .181** .002 279 1 -.316** .000 279 -.123* .040 279 1 279 -.123* .040 279 279 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). a) depression b) ACT score c) happiness -- 56%, r = .46 25 What do you suppose the value would be for the correlation in the “???” box? a) r = -.11 b) r =.02 -- 80%, r = .23 c) r = .08 Part II. Calculations [10 points] 26. Z-test – 4 points Calculate a z-score, given the following information, and indicate whether it is significant. Sample mean = 18 Sample mode = 22 Sample standard deviation = 10.75 Population mean = 20 Population mode = 16 Population standard deviation = 12.45 Sample size = 256 Z = -2.57 Significant? yes / no [Only need information in bold] SE = 12.45 / sqrt(256) = 12.45/16 = .778 Z = (18-20) / .0486 = -2.57 critical Z = + 1.96 27. t-test – 6 points 28 people enroll in a clinical trail for a new schizophrenia medication. During the trial, ten patients drop out, and three more commit suicide. On a symptom rating scale, patients see an average reduction of 2.2 points (SD = 4.3) for their symptoms. Calculate the withinsubject t-value. Indicate whether the result is significant. In a sentence or two, describe how you would interpret this finding. n = 28 – 10 – 3 = 15 df = 15 – 1 =14 critical t = + 2.145 SE = 4.3 / sqrt(15) = 1.110 t = 2.2 / 1.110 = -1.9815 t = 1.98 (positive or negative is okay) Significant? yes / no Interpretation: Although patients had a slight reduction in symptoms, the change was not reliable. The high dropout rate also calls into question the results. Part III. Short Answer [10 points] 28. Pick One of the following: a) List 5 types of inferential statistics and note when you would use each. Anything correctly identifying 5 statistics, such as r, Z, single-sample t, betweengroup t, within-subject t, ANOVA, chi-square, or any other statistic used to draw inferences about the population received full credit. No credit for responses related to mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, range, or degrees of freedom. OR b) List and briefly describe 5 major differences between the between-group and withinsubject approaches. Any 5 reasonable responses from the final page of the t3.doc lecture notes would be excellent. OR c) In a short paragraph, describe how inferential statistics are used in the social sciences. Make sure to mention the following terms: hypothesis testing, critical value, p-value, and effect size. In the social sciences, researchers test their hypotheses or predictions by studying samples and then using inferential statistics to draw conclusions about the population at large. Due to sampling error, small, unreliable findings are expected to occur within any given sample. Thus, obtained results are often compared to some critical value (e.g. z or t) to determine whether the results were reliably better than chance. The p value indicates the probability that the result would be obtained by chance. Measures of effect size indicate the magnitude of the finding. Thus, statistics enable researchers to judge the reliability and size of observed effects. Study Guide Exam #4 PSY 211 Disclaimer: This is a guide of the main points that I consider to be important. You are responsible for all material covered in the book or in lecture, unless otherwise noted by me. Format: The exam is 120 points. There will be 25 multiple choice questions (4 points each); multiple choice includes concepts and quick calculations. The remaining 20 points will come from additional calculations or short answer. Formulas: You will be given a formula sheet (attached) and the t-table from the book. Not on this Exam: Do not use the formulas or d values in the book. Particularly, for the t-test, we used some simplified version of the formulas in class, which are easier, and still provide a close estimate of the longer formulas There are no story problems based on the one-tail t-test, you just need to know how it differs from a two-tail test. Suggested Learning Strategies: Study in small groups Ask questions or e-mail Mike Review last semester’s exam: http://www.psychmike.com/psy211f07/guide4.doc Know how to do all homework and study guide problems Make up your own multiple choice questions Conceptual Questions (may appear in multiple choice or short-answer): * Be able to interpret Output in order to write the results in APA style (mainly t-tests, but correlation and regression Output are also fair game) * Be able to understand and define the differences between the z-test and the three types of t-tests. Given a story problem or list of data, be able to correctly identify which test to use. Know the four basic steps of hypothesis testing When writing out the null and alternative hypotheses, are we describing the expected difference in the sample or population? Know the difference between t-obtained and t-critical Know how probability relates to hypothesis testing How does the shape of the t-distribution differ from the shape of the z-distribution? How does sample size impact the critical t-value? What are degrees of freedom (df)? Why is it difficult to draw conclusions about group differences based on visual inspection of the data (such as, histograms)? What does a significant t-value mean? What does p = .000 really mean in the SPSS Output? Why is it possible for a result with a large effect size to be unreliable (not statistically significant)? Why is it possible for a small effect size to be reliable (statistically significant) in some cases? Know any real-life stats example mentioned in class (I will not repeat these to skippers, but we can discuss it together as a class) Know the main differences between the between-group and within-subject t-test Skepticism Calculations: * Given r, r2, or d, be able to indicate the effect size * On the multiple choice, I may give you a story problem and ask you which statistical test you would use but not make you carry out the calculations. In the problem solving section, if there are any story problems, I will tell you which formula to use. o Be able to calculate Cohen’s d, z-values, and various t-values given formulas Range of possible values for r, r2, and d If an obtained t-value is blacked out from SPSS Output, know how to calculate it from the remaining variables in the Output Terms (may appear in multiple choice or short-answer): * p < .05 Hypothesis testing Null hypothesis Alternative hypothesis Effect size Sampling error Iatrogenic Alpha (or significance) level Critical region Type I error Type II error Power One-tail vs. two-tail t-test (know the difference, but you won’t need to do any story problems based on one-tail tests) Pre-post study Manipulation check Matched sample Carryover effect Formulas I will also give you the t-table from the book! You do not need to print them in advance to bring to the exam. Beware, that in story problems, I might use “SD” as a symbol for standard deviation, or “SE” to represent standard error of the mean. Z = (M – μ) σM Single sample where σM = σ / t = (M – μ) sM n where sM = s / n (M 1 M 2 ) Between-group t = s s12 where sM = M Cohen’s d for between-group t-test = n1 s22 n2 (M 1 M 2 ) s To find the value of s, average the standard deviation from each of the two subsamples, if available. If only the s for the combined sample is available, use that. Within-subject t = MD / sMD where sMD = ( s / Cohen’s d for within-subject t-test d = MD / s n) Old Exam Questions I have taken these questions from last semester’s exam. I think they will give you a good idea of the types of questions to expect. You can check answers here: http://www.psychmike.com/psy211f07/guide4.doc 3 When writing the alternative hypothesis, researchers are describing differences that are expected to occur at this level a) sample b) construct c) population 4 If SPSS shows that a correlation has a p-value of 0.12, the correlation is said to be a) statistically non-significant b) statistically significant c) not enough information 5 If the alternative hypothesis is really correct, and based on sample data you reject the null hypothesis, you have made a a) Type I error b) Type II error c) correct decision 6 A hypothesis that men and women do not differ on intelligence a) Null hypothesis b) Alternative Hypothesis c) One-tail hypothesis 8 How will choosing a more strict alpha level impact the critical t-value? a) Increase it b) Decrease it c) No impact 9 If Cohen’s d = - 4.39, the result will be significant a) Always b) Sometimes c) Never 10 Type of t-test commonly used in twin studies a) single-sample b) between-group c) repeated-measures 12 If the null hypothesis is really true, and your sample supports the alternative hypothesis, you have made a a) Type I error b) Type II error c) correct decision 13 Effect size when Cohen’s d = .78 a) small b) medium c) large 14 As sample size increases, the z value needed for significance will a) increase b) stay the same c) decrease 17 Effect size when r2 = 0.26 a) small b) medium c) large 18 Which of the following distributions is the flattest? a) z distribution b) t distribution where n = 5 c) t distribution where n = 10 19 The p-value shown in SPSS indicates the probability that a) the null hypothesis is true b) the alternative hypothesis is true c) the probability of a Type II error Below is the Output from a recent homework problem, in which you were to run two t-tests, comparing gender differences in both “beauty concerns” and “war support,” but some of the information has been removed. Use these charts for #21-22. Group Sta tisti cs 2. Gender 44. Beauty Concerns Female Male 70. War Support Female Male N Mean 4.462 3.990 3.058 3.175 223 103 223 103 St d. Deviat ion 1.4603 1.5178 1.8432 1.8652 St d. Error Mean .0978 .1496 .1234 .1838 Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances F 44. Beauty Concerns 70. War Support Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed .068 .142 Sig. .794 .707 t-test for Equality of Means t df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Difference Std. Error Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper 2.677 324 .008 .4716 .1762 .1250 .8182 2.639 191.759 .009 .4716 .1787 .1191 .8240 -.528 324 .598 -.1165 .2204 -.5501 .3172 -.526 196.410 .599 -.1165 .2214 -.5531 .3201 21 What is the value for the degrees of freedom? a) greater than 325 b) 325 c) less than 325 22 What is the t-value for the “beauty concerns” t-test? a) greater than 2.37 b) 2.37 c) less than 2.37 Below is some new Output, from our classroom data file, but not from any particular homework assignment. Instead of looking at gender differences, these t-tests examine differences across people who described themselves as an athlete (“Yes”) or not an athlete (“No”). I compared non-Athletes and Athletes along five variables: leadership, beauty concerns, physical complaints, authority problems, and life stress. These variables are very straightforward (no tricks), but I can answer questions if you want any details. Use these charts for #23-25 (next page). Group Statistics 34. Leaders hip 44. Beauty Concerns 61. Physical Complaints 62. Authority Problems 73. Life Stress 4. Athlete No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes N Mean 4.622 5.034 4.284 4.337 3.865 3.247 1.750 1.770 4.797 4.573 148 178 148 178 148 178 148 178 148 178 Std. Deviation 1.3722 1.1832 1.5651 1.4336 1.8393 1.7994 1.2282 1.3096 1.4379 1.4449 Std. Error Mean .1128 .0887 .1287 .1075 .1512 .1349 .1010 .0982 .1182 .1083 Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances F 34. Leaders hip 44. Beauty Concerns 61. Physical Complaints 62. Authority Problems 73. Life Stress Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed Equal variances as sumed Equal variances not ass umed 7.359 2.226 .043 .011 .147 Sig. .007 .137 .836 .915 .701 t-test for Equality of Means t df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Difference Std. Error Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper -2.911 324 .004 -.4121 .1416 -.6906 -.1336 -2.872 292.184 .004 -.4121 .1435 -.6945 -.1297 -.321 324 .749 -.0533 .1663 -.3804 .2738 -.318 301.699 .751 -.0533 .1676 -.3832 .2766 3.055 324 .002 .6177 .2022 .2199 1.0155 3.049 310.666 .002 .6177 .2026 .2190 1.0163 -.139 324 .890 -.0197 .1416 -.2983 .2590 -.140 319.306 .889 -.0197 .1408 -.2967 .2574 1.398 324 .163 .2243 .1604 -.0913 .5398 1.399 313.774 .163 .2243 .1603 -.0912 .5397 23 How many of the five results shown are statistically significant? a) 1 b) 2 c) 3 24 Based on these findings, if you met a random athlete, how might you expect them to differ from a non-athlete? a) More life stress b) More authority problems c) Fewer physical complaints 25 What percentage of the sample self-reported that they were an athlete? a) less than 52.3% b) 52.3% c) more than 52.3% 26 Calculate a z-score, given the following information, and indicate whether it is significant. Sample mean = 200 Sample mode = 210 Sample standard deviation = 160 Population mean = 250 Population mode = 248 Population standard deviation = 111 Sample size = 16 z= Significant? yes/no Ignore numbers not in bold above. 28 Psychologists have been fascinated by lottery winners. Using standard 9-point happiness rating scales, they have tracked how their level of happiness changes after winning. In fact, 1 year after winning the lottery, most winners (n = 9) note that they are about 0.75 points happier (SD = 2.5). Calculate the within-subject t statistic, Cohen’s d, and note whether the result is statistically significant. t= d= Significant? yes/no