Download e. interest rates

BUSINESSDAY ECONOMIC SURVEY JANUARY 2016 QUESTIONS
PLEASE RETURN BY FRIDAY JANUARY 8
NAME AND FIRM:
____________________________
A.
ECONOMIC GROWTH
1.
Australia real GDP growth, through the year to December 2016
(Clickable links: latest figure 2.3%)
2.
______
China real GDP growth, year to December 2016: (latest 6.9%)
______
3.
US real GDP growth, year to December 2016: (latest 2.17%)
______

World real GDP growth, year to December 2016: (IMF forecast: 3.1%)
______
5.
Forecast year to December 2016 growth in:
a) Real household consumption (latest +2.7%)
______
b) Real business investment mining (latest minus 28.8%)
______
c) Real business investment non-mining (latest minus 5.1%)
______
d) Real dwelling investment (latest +10.3%)
______
e) Nominal GDP (latest +2.2%)
______
BusinessDay Economic Survey January 2016 Page 1
B.
6.
PRICES AND WAGES
Home price index, CoreLogic measure
a) Sydney, year to December 2016 (latest year to 12.8%)
b) Melbourne, year to December 2016 (latest year to11.8%)
7.
______
______
Consumer Price and Wage Index, year to December 2016
a) Headline CPI (latest 1.5%)
______
b) Underlying CPI (latest 2.15%)
______
c) Wage price index, seasonally adjusted (latest 2.3%)
______
C.
JOBS
8.
Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (latest 5.8%)
a) December 2016
D.
BUDGET
9.
Underlying cash deficit
______
a) 2015-16 (MYEFO forecast $37.4b)
______
b) 2016-17 (MYEFO forecast $33.7b)
______
E. INTEREST RATES
10.
Reserve Bank cash rate (currently 2.0%)
a) June 30, 2016
______
b) December 31, 2016
______
10 year government bonds (currently 2.88%)
a) December 31, 2016
BusinessDay Economic Survey January 2016 Page 2
______
F.
CURRENCY
11.
G.
a) USD/AUD June 30, 2016
______
b) USD/AUD December 31, 2016
______
SHARE MARKET
12. S&P/ASX 200 (latest 5028)
H.
a) June 30, 2016
______
b) December 31, 2016
______
TRADE
13. Spot iron ore price (currently $US39 a tonne)
a) December 31, 2016
______
14. Terms of trade, national accounts measure
% change, year to Dec 31, 2016 (latest minus 10.5%) ______
15. Current account deficit, $ billion
Total for calendar year 2016 (latest $63.9b)
*****SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONS OVER THE PAGE *****
BusinessDay Economic Survey January 2016 Page 3
______
*****SUPPLEMENTARY QUESTIONS*****
We would like to canvass your thoughts on a number of issues.
(Answers on a separate sheet please)
1. Will the Fed lift interest rates again in 2016 and why? How will it affect us?
2. Is the rout in commodities prices going to deepen or recover in the coming year
and why?
3. What will be the worst-performing commodity? One word:
4. What’s going to happen to home prices over 2016 and 2017 and what impact
will it have on the economy?
5. In this election year, will the budget purse strings be loosened or tightened, and
why?
BusinessDay Economic Survey January 2016 Page 4