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The Effect of Market Cap and Shares Outstanding on the Stock Price of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Components1 Devin Velnoskey, Fordham College at Rose Hill, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] ABSTRACT The effect of a company’s market capitalization and outstanding shares on the stock price of the Dow Jones Industrial Components is an interesting relationship to explore. The relationship between shares outstanding and the stock price has been partially documented but with the inclusion of market capitalization the regression analysis will consider a new variable, market cap, and its effect on the stock price of the component when coupled with shares outstanding. In the model, the independent variables are market capitalization2 (X) and shares outstanding3 (Z) while the dependent variable is the stock price of the Dow component4 (Y). The analysis of these two independent variables and their affect on stock price proves to be interesting and timely due to the recent massive declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that some attribute to a market operating in a sequence of total detachment from fundamentals, which includes market capitalization and a stock’s shares outstanding. The Effect of National Education Spending and GDP Per Capita on the Infant Mortality Rate in 40 Randomly Selected Countries Maria Guadagno, Fordham CBA, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] ABSTRACT The effect of national education spending and GDP per capita on infant mortality is an important issue to explore, because even one infant death is too many. By exploring the two independent variables: GDP per capita (X), and national education spending (Z), we can ascertain to what extent these two factors play a role in a country’s infant mortality rate (Y). This problem is interesting because it can highlight a link between seemingly disparate factors and can potentially be beneficial to developing countries that would like to see their infant mortality rate drop. This term paper was submitted April 6th, 2009 in partial fulfillment of Professor Vinod’s Statistical Decision Making course. 2 Found at www.cnbc.com by searching each Dow Component’s ticket symbol on a particular day in March 2009 3 Found at www.cnbc.com by searching each Dow Component’s ticket symbol 4 Found at www.cnbc.com by searching each Dow Component’s ticket symbol 1 The Effect of Total Population and Personal Income on Foreign-Born Population from 1992-1998 in the United States Zihao (Clark) Zhu, CBA5, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 E-mail: [email protected] Abstract The effect of total population and personal income on Foreign-Born Population in the United States is a very important part to analysis when doing census. In this model, the independent variables are U.S. Total Population6 (X) and U.S. Personal Income7 (Z), the dependent variable is U.S. Foreign-Born Population8 (Y). This is an interesting research topic, because there is a strong relation between U.S. Foreign-Born Population and U.S. Total Population as well as U.S. Personal Income. This research will illustrate the positive correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Testing the True Health of an Economy: Using R to Test Correlation between Gross Domestic Product and Life Expectancy Brandon Smith, Fordham College 9, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, E-Mail [email protected] Abstract In this paper I aim to test the claim that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is synonymous with the physical health and standard of living of a country’s citizens. I do so by testing the correlation of three variables in the twenty-five developed countries: gross domestic product per capita (x), government healthcare spending per capita (z), and life expectancy (y). The null hypothesis will be that variables x and z do not have a strong positive relationship with y and the alternative hypothesis is that variables x any z 5 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod. 6 http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/nat-nativity-sum.txt Quarterly U.S. Total Population from 1992 to 1998. 7 http://www.bea.gov/regional/sqpi/default.cfm?selTable=SQ1 Quarterly personal income, millions of dollar, seasonally adjusted at annual rates. 8 http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/nat-nativity-sum.txt Quarterly U.S. Foreign-Born Population from 1992 to 1998. 9 This paper was submitted April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod have a positive relationship with y. Finally, all data being used was collected by the World Health Organization. The Effect of Educational and Economic Prosperity on Incidences of International Acts of Terrorism in 25 Countries John Tully Gordon, FCRH*, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract In order to aide in the prevention of terrorist attacks and inform defense policymakers, it is necessary to investigate the connections between global educational availability and economic prosperity, and to determine if these factors have directly impacted the incidences of terrorism in their respective countries. In the model the independent variables are literacy rate (X) to account for educational availability and gross domestic product (GDP) at purchasing power parity per capita (Z) to represent economic prosperity. The dependent variable is incidences of terrorism based on 25 individual countries (Y). This area of statistical research is interesting because it sheds light on an issue that is often dogged by misconceptions, stereotypes, and false information. Concrete data is necessary in the ongoing struggle against militant extremist violence. The Effect of Obesity and the Unemployment Rate on Suicide in the US Matt Cooper, CBA10, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract The effect of obesity and unemployment on suicide is a very important and interesting issue to study. It is important to research and see if connections can be made between obesity and unemployment and more importantly if these two factors lead to an overall effect on Suicide. In this model the independent variables are obesity (X) and unemployment rate (Y). The dependant variable in this model is Suicide (Z). This study is interesting because it can connect an increasing heath problem of obesity and the unemployment rate which is increasing in this current economic environment, to the problem of suicide in our American culture. This statistical study can further help to This term paper was submitted on April 6, 2009, in fulfillment of Professor Vinod’s Statistical Decision Making Course. 10 This term paper was submitted April 2009, in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod. * show people how Obesity and unemployment can aid in peoples decisions to commit suicide. The Effect of the National Unemployment Rate and the Consumer Price Index on the Dow Jones Industrial Average Patrick O’Leary, CBA11, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract With the economy in turmoil and American citizens taking a major financial hit during this recession, it is important to explore factors that contributed to and could act as predictors for such an economic crisis. With both large and small businesses struggling to stay afloat, the unemployment rate has increased dramatically. But despite less people working and making money, the CPI indicates that the average price of goods has actually risen. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is significant because it is an accurate indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. This model will investigate the correlation between the independent variables unemployment (X) and the CPI (Z), and their effect on the dependant variable, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Y). The Effect of Literacy and Life Expectancy on the Birth Rate in the 25 Wealthiest African Nations James McGlinch, CBA12, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract The effect of literacy and life expectancy on the birth rate is an important issue to investigate with regards to developing nations. Finding the factors that influence the birth rate, which has become an indicator of global development, is important because without knowledge of which factors actually influence the birth rate foreign aid efforts could be ineffective. In the model the independent variables are the literacy rate (X) and life expectancy (Z) and the dependent variable is the birth rate (Y). This problem addresses what is assumed about the health of a nation, represented by life expectancy, 11 This term paper was written on April 6, 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod. This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod 12 and education within a country, represented by the literacy rate, and how they affect its development as a nation, represented by the birth rate. The effects of Bank Prime Loans Rate and Unemployment Rate on the US Public Debt during from 1949 to 1980 Alexandre Catsicas, CBA13, Fordham University, Bronx, New York 10458, [email protected] Abstract The public debt is an issue that every nation has to face. It can be considered as the total nation’s debts; an indicator of how much public spending is financed by borrowing instead of taxation, and which at the end, can be indirectly interpreted as a debt of the citizens. In this work, we will explore the interesting effects of two different socioeconomic phenomenon such as the Bank Prime Loan Rate (X) and the Unemployment Rate (Z), and the, try to see if their consequences can be related to the Public Debt of the United States (Y) between 1949 and 1980. Correlations Between Rank and Career Earnings In Women’s Tennnis Amy Wadyka, CBA*, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract As with any profession, the amount one is paid depends on many different factors. Education, work ethic, skills, and innovativeness are just a few factors that impact pay. In sports and entertainment, there are even more ways to boost personal income. Beyond just doing your decided profession, there are possibilities for endorsement deals and branding that will bring in additional funds. In tennis specifically, there are many things to consider when looking at an individuals earnings. In my project, I will be looking at what impacts career pay for the top 25 ranked 13 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod * This term paper was submitted in April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod female tennis players. Important factors in analyzing career earnings (Y14) are the ranking of the individual (X15) and what they are currently earning as prize money (Z16). The Tradeoff between Consumer Price Index and the Unemployment Rate in the context of changing Gross Domestic Product Nicole Dubé, CBA17, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 [email protected] In the midst of the credit crunch there have been series of trickling events that seem to only worsen the recession. The Phillips Curve shows the inverse relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Unemployment rate; it is one way to study the effect on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With the recent fast increasing layoffs it is necessary to further study how unemployment along with the CPI affects the GDP and what possibly, if trends continue, what GDP will be in the future. In the model the independent variables are Unemployment Rate (x) and GDP (z) and the dependent variable is CPI (y). This problem is interesting due to the current state of not only the US but dominating economies around the world. Effects of Teenage Pregnancy and High School Graduates on Unemployment in the United States Mary Cline, FCRH18, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, E-mail [email protected] Abstract As the economy has declined recently, it is crucial to explore the issues surrounding unemployment since a high rate leads to an inefficient economy. It is necessary to see if connections between teenage pregnancy and high school graduates can be made, and more importantly if these factors lead to an overall effect on unemployment 14 http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/rankings?year=2009&type=2 ESPN Women’s professional tennis 15 http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/rankings?year=2009&type=2 ESPN Women’s professional tennis 16 http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/rankings?year=2009&type=2 ESPN Women’s professional tennis 17 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod 18 This term paper was written in April 2009 in partial fulfillment of the Statistical Decision Making course by Professor Vinod. in the United States. It is crucial to investigate possible causes of unemployment in order to alleviate its problems. In this model, the independent variables are teenage pregnancy (X) and high school graduates (Z) and the dependent variable is unemployment (Y). This problem is interesting because it evaluates issues that many of us have faced, and it can be related to something that affects our nation as a whole, unemployment. The Effects of Unemployment and Inflation on GDP per Capita In The United States from 1966-2006 Rob Sliney, Fordham College Rose Hill19, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract This paper will examine the correlation, if any, there is between unemployment and inflation on GDP per Capita growth rates over the span of forty one years in the United States. This will benefit anyone who is interested in how overall macroeconomic factors contribute to the Gross Domestic Product per Capita. This is especially true of those interested in today’s economic climate. In this term paper the independent variables are CPI (Inflation) (X)20 and unemployment (Z)21 and the dependent variable is GDP Per Capita Growth Rate(Y)22. In today’s rough economic times this information would be valuable to anyone who would like to forecast inflation or unemployment rates if the economy is weak or strong. The Effect on Education and Unemployment have on Crime in the New York State Justine Ayala, CBA23, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] 19 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod 20 http://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt 21 http://www.bls.gov/cps/prev_yrs.htm 22 http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/index.php?step=countries&ccID%5B%5D=5&cID%5B%5D=19 0&theme=5 Abstract The effect of unemployment on crime is prominent in today’s economy. At the same time a lack of education has an impact on the unemployment rate. Unemployment is positively related to the crime rate in NYC. This makes most sense. If the unemployment rate is up it would make sense that crime would be higher. People will do desperate things when they do not have money to support them. Not only will there be more burglaries but the longer the unemployment rate is high the more violent the crimes will become. Therefore as the charts show it makes sense that as the unemployment rate raised the crime rate rose. In the model the independent variables are unemployment (X) and education (Z) and the dependent variable is crime(Y). Batting Around the Money Ball James Lynch, CBA24, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] Abstract The impact on salary is dictated by many factors when talking about Major League Baseball. In the midst of a recession it is interesting to see how members one of America’s most beloved and a celebrated sports game is affected. This issue explores how individual player performance and professional experience influence the overall salary of each professional baseball player. In the model, the independent variables are batting average (x)25 and years played (z)26 and the dependent variable is salary (y)27. Salary is interesting because it is not only affected as a result of batting average and experience, but also by hits, number of at-bats, stolen bases, player popularity/personality, errors, and so on. Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia has played professional baseball for three years with a salary of $457,000 in 200828, however this player received the most valuable player award. Furthermore, this is an interesting topic because many teams are waning as a consequence of a crumbling economy such as the Florida Marlins, whereas other teams have an influx of currency and are able to buy new players and entertainment in the stadiums, such as the New York Yankees. Effect of Unemployment and Home Vacancy Have on Cigarette Sales 24 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod 25 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?league=mlb MLB Player Database 26 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?league=mlb MLB Player Database 27 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?league=mlb MLB Player Database 28 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6393 Dustin Pedroia Stats Iris Platt, CBA, Fordham University29, Bronx, NY 10458, E-mail [email protected] ABSTRACT Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. Since smoking cigarettes and second hand smoke cause lung cancer it is important to address what causes people to smoke cigarettes. It is a well known myth that cigarettes supposedly reduce stress. So it would be logical to think that such hardships such as unemployment (Variable X), and Home Vacancy (Variable Z) would affect the sale of cigarettes (Variable Y). The data being used has been collected from econmagic.com. The trends that occur between these variables will be interesting to analyze considering the amount of stress the recent economic condition is causing. The Effects of Divorce and Single Parent Homes on Median Income Sarah Dudley, CBA30, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458, [email protected] ABSTRACT The effects of divorce and single parent homes on median income is extremely prevalent in this modern society where the nuclear family is becoming more difficult to come by. With a rising percentage of marriages ending in divorce, one may question the effects of it on a family’s income with the high costs associated with ending a marriage. Single parent homes have a more direct relationship with financial hardship, as there is only one person providing income. The independent variables are the single parent homes (x) and the divorce rate (y) between1983 and 2008.. The dependent variable (z), or the effect we are looking at is the median income in the US for both sexes and all races between 1983 and 2008 Effects of Binge Drinking and Poor Living Conditions on Students Attending College 29 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009s in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod 30 This term paper was written on March 30, 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Professor Vinod. Maeve Egan, CBA, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 Email: [email protected] Abstract: This paper will be exploring the percentage of students attending college by state, and how it is impacted by alcohol use and poor living conditions. In this model, the independent variables are the percentage of residents who live below the poverty line (x)1, and the percentage of residents by state who binge drink (z)2. The dependent variable is the percent of students attending college by state ( y)3. This research is very interesting because it shows how these two factors, which deal with the home environment, may play a role in students’ ability to attend college. . Essentially we will find whether alcohol and living conditions influence college attendance rates. The Effects of Minorities and Income on Crime in the 25 Most Populated States Anna Messina, Fordham College31, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 [email protected] Abstract Minorities in the US are an interesting group to explore because they encounter different struggles. Why is it that African Americans only make up about 12% of the US population, but occupy 60% of the incarcerated population32? The paper will examine how income and diverse populations may help to explain why certain states have more crime than other states. In the model, the independent variables are the minority population33 (X) and median state income34 (Z), and the dependent variable is crime35 (Y). The model uses a sample of the 25 most populated states in the US in 2007. If the variables have a causal relationship, then helping increase the income of minorities may help to reduce crime. The Effect of Unemployment and Education on Poverty in the United States 31 This term paper was submitted April 2009 in fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod. 32 Adler, Freda, and William Laufer. Criminal Justice: An Introduction. 4th ed. New York: McGraw Hill. 33 US Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/tables/SC-EST2007-04.xls 34 US Census Bureau , http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/statemedfaminc.html 35 US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/data/table_05.html Margaret Ryan Daly, CBA36, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458 [email protected] Abstract One of the biggest problems facing the United States of America today is the poverty level. With the recent recession, the government is increasingly concerned with the well fare of its people. In order to help better understand poverty in the hopes of finding a solution, we must explore the causes. Two potential causes of poverty in the United States are unemployment and literacy levels. In the model, the independent variables are (X) unemployment and (Z) education level and the dependent variable (Y) poverty. This problem is interesting because as a nation we are continually aided other poorer countries, yet we must also face our own poverty. The Effects of Divorce and Single Parent Homes on Median Income (From 1983-2008) SARAH DUDLEY [email protected] ABSTRACT I think that this topic is an interesting one, especially in today’s culture as it seems that divorce rates and single parent home numbers are increasing steadily as time goes on. I wonder if these living arrangements affect how much the family’s median income will be. As a large number of the population does not live in the nuclear family structure, it will be interesting to see if these homes prosper or lack when it comes to earnings. This disadvantage could prove to be important in the promotion of topics such as abstinence, safe sex, marriage laws and other similar topics. A Comparison of Housing Vacancy Rates and the Variables that May Affect It (Unemployment Rate and Ownership Rate) Anthony Sabatino [email protected] Abstract: This paper will study the relationship between housing vacancy rates in the US, unemployment rate, and homeownership rate from 1970-2009, looking at the data semiannually (on January 1st and July 1st of each year). This study is relevant as the housing market has been at the forefront of the news recently, as the “burst” of the “housing bubble” precluded the current economic recession. Housing vacancy rates are sometimes used as a general indicator of the overall prosperity of the country, and the 36 This term paper will be written in March/April 2009 in partial fulfillment of Statistical Decision Making course by Prof. Vinod current economic distress should lead one to look for the root causes behind the housing vacancy rate, such as unemployment and trends in renter/owner percentage.