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MONTHLY NEWS SCAN Tinjauan Berita Bulanan Compiled by IDS Vol. 16 Issue 12 (For internal circulation only) HIGHLIGHTS FOKUS • Lagarde: No country’s economy immune from rising risks • Japan exports slide as BOJ sees weakness • Eksport berkembang 6% • Services sector is new engine of growth • RM200m Telupid new township • Sabah growth projects show good results INTERNATIONAL ANTARABANGSA Lagarde: No country’s economy immune from rising risks: IMF head Christine Lagarde has said the world economic outlook is “gloomy” and no country is immune from rising risks. She said all nations, starting with Europe, needed to head off a crisis with risks of a global depression. “There is no economy in the world immune from the crisis that we not only see unfolding but escalating,” she said. “It is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions actually taking action.” (15 December, BBC News) Japan exports slide as BOJ sees weakness: Japan’s exports fell and the central bank lowered its assessment of the economy for a second straight month as weakening demand in Europe and Asia weigh on the outlook for global growth. Shipments dropped a more-thanexpected 4.5 percent in November from a year earlier, a Ministry of Finance report showed today in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan separately kept its asset-buying fund and creditlending program unchanged, even as it said that a pick-up in activity has paused. (21 December, Bloomberg) Australia’s economy expands 2.5%, led by mining: Australia’s economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, driven by building and mining activity. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2.5% in the three months till the end of September from the same period a year earlier, the statistical bureau said. Analysts 1 – 31 December 2011 1 – 31 December 2011 IDS Online http://www.ids.org.my expected a gain of 2.1%, and the Australian dollar rose slightly on the news. Despite the stronger growth, there are fears about coming quarters with a slowdown expected in Europe and China. (7 December, BBC News) Singapore’s factory output declines 9.6% in November: Singapore’s factory output fell in November after a drop in electronics manufacturing caused by slowing demand and supply chain issues. Industrial production fell by 9.6% from a year earlier, with electronics production down 30.1%. While floods in Thailand disrupted supplies of components, the debt crisis in the eurozone and a slowdown in the US hurt demand for electronic goods. (23 December, BBC News) South Korea jobless rate holds at three-year low of 3.1% on service sector: South Korea’s unemployment rate held at a three-year low last month as service industries hired more workers to meet growing demand. The jobless rate stood at 3.1 percent in November, unchanged from October, Statistics Korea said today in Gwacheon, south of Seoul. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists was for a rate of 3.2 percent. South Korea’s job market is showing resilience even as the deepening debt crisis in Europe and slowing global growth threaten to cool an economy that has grown for 11 straight quarters. (14 December, Bloomberg) New Zealand fourth quarter consumer confidence index falls, westpac says: New Zealand consumer confidence slumped in the fourth quarter on concern the European debt crisis may lead to a global economic slowdown and tighter credit, a private survey showed. An index of household sentiment fell to 101.3 from 112 in the third quarter, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) and McDermott Miller Ltd. said in an e-mailed report. Confidence is the lowest since the first quarter, immediately after an earthquake devastated the South Island city of Christchurch. (19 December, Bloomberg) German exports drop as southern Europe markets shrink: German exports fell 3.6% in October as demand from crisis-hit southern European markets shrank, data shows. It was the biggest fall in six months, and much bigger than the 1% decline expected by markets. German imports shrank by 1% versus a month earlier - also more than expected suggesting demand is also weakening in Europe’s biggest economy. The country’s trade surplus fell from 17.3bn to 11.6bn euros ($15.5bn; £9.9bn), or about 5.5% of its GDP. “We are seeing the beginning of a strong hit to German exports,” said Holger Schmiedling, economist at Berenberg Bank. (9 December, BBC News) Russia becomes WTO member after 18 years of talks: Russia has finally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) at a ceremony in Switzerland on Friday, after 18 years negotiating its membership. The Swiss brokered a deal between Russia and Georgia earlier this year that removed the last obstacle to Russia’s accession. Georgia had tried to block Russia’s WTO entry since the two countries fought a short war in 2008. Russia was by far the biggest economy yet to join the global trade body. It is also the last member of the Group of 20 major economies to join, after China gained membership in 2001. (16 December, BBC News) China’s manufacturing activity falls to a 32-month low: China’s manufacturing activity fell to a 32month low in November, hurt by a slowdown in the global economy. China’s official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest level since March 2009. The industry survey data comes amid concerns that a slowdown in the global economy may dent demand for Chinese goods and hurt its economy. PMI is a key indicator of manufacturing activity and a reading below 50 shows contraction. This is the first time in almost three years that the figure has fallen below the crucial 50 mark. (1 December, BBC News) MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 1 NATIONAL NASIONAL Eksport berkembang 6%: Perbadanan Pembangunan Perdagangan Luar Malaysia (Matrade) mengunjurkan pasaran eksport negara berkembang sekitar enam peratus tahun depan meskipun berdepan dengan keadaan ekonomi dunia yang tidak menentu. Ketua Pegawai Eksekutifnya, Wong Lai Sum berkata, pasaran eksport negara tetap mempunyai permintaan yang tinggi kerana kebanyakan daripadanya adalah barangan keperluan. “Walaupun ekonomi meleset atau kuasa beli semakin kurang, ini tidak bermakna permintaan terhadap barangan turut akan jatuh. (8 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Services sector is new engine of growth: The services sector is overtaking manufacturing as the main contributor to economic growth. This will have vast implications on where people are going to find work and what skills they will need to get employed. The government’s growth target is very clear: To become a developed nation by 2020. Using a World Bank definition, that means having a per capita income of RM49,500 (US$15,000) by the end of the decade. The per capita income level in 2010 was RM23,100 (US$7,000). This is an ambitious target and requires gross domestic product (GDP) growth of at least 7 percent per year. (20 December, Business Times) RM275mil for rubber replanting and planting of new trees: Malaysian Rubber Board expects some RM275mil will be invested under the rubber National Key Economic Area (NKEA) mainly involving replanting and new plantings of rubber trees nationwide, said director-general Datuk Dr Salmiah Ahmad. In 2012, she said, active replanting activities would cover about 38,000ha per year focusing mainly on Peninsular Malaysia while new plantings would cover about 5,000ha each in Sarawak and Sabah. “While we might face some shortages in planting materials next year, this is already being addressed at our nurseries 1 – 31 December 2011 nationwide,” she told StarBiz. (29 December, The Star) FDI: Inisiatif kerajaan jadi pemangkin 10 terbaik: Inisiatif yang dilaksanakan kerajaan seperti Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP) dan transformasi politik merupakan pemangkin kepada negara untuk muncul sebagai sebagai 10 negara terbaik bagi pelaburan langsung asing (FDI). Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan Industri, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed berkata, banyak pembaharuan yang dilakukan kerajaan telah berjaya menjadikan Malaysia destinasi menarik untuk FDI. “Peningkatan kedudukan Malaysia di tangga ke 10 negara menarik FDI berbanding di tangga 21 pada tahun lalu menunjukkan kejayaan inisiatif-inisiatif kerajaan telah mengukuhkan minat pelabur. (9 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Malaysia Nov CPI likely to show inflation has peaked: The Consumer Price Index has probably peaked in Malaysia although food prices are likely to continue to provide inflation nary pressures in November, said economists. A Business Times poll expects the CPI, the official barometer of inflation, to grow by an average 3.09 per cent year-on-year from 3.4 percent in October. Gundy Cahyadi of OCBC Bank expects inflation levels to soften in 2012. (21 December, Business Times) Malaysia Jan-Oct total trade tops RM1tril: Asian market spurred Malaysia’s total trade between January and October, breaching RM1 trillion mark, with exports clinching 15.8 per cent growth, the highest monthly figure ever recorded. Exports surged by 9.1 per cent to RM557.16 billion, while imports rose by 8.5 per cent to RM474.72 billion, bringing total trade to RM1.052 trillion, up by 8.8 per cent, resulting in RM102.44 billion trade surplus. Announcing the trade figures today, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said exports maintained a steady growth momentum, recording RM63.57 billion in October, the highest monthly exports ever registered, up by 15.8 percent compared with a year ago. (9 December, Business Times) Malaysia industrial output seen easier in Oct: Industrial output is expected to ease in October on the back of a slowing external demand as well as base effects, said economists. A Business Times poll expects the index to post a 1.73 per cent year-onyear average growth. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Dr Chua Hak Bin said industrial production expanded at a slower pace as weaker global external demand slowed manufacturing output, which he expects to grow by 5.3 percent. Citi also expects manufacturing output to moderate on unfavourable base effects as well as weakness in overall manufacturing activity. (8 December, Business Times) Manufacturing investments hit RM40.7b: Investments in Malaysia’s manufacturing sector reached RM40.7 billion in the first 10 months of 2011 and the full-year figure is expected to surpass last year’s numbers. In 2010, total investments from local and foreign investors stood at RM47.2 billion, 45 percent more than 2009. The five leading sources of foreign investments were the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Germany who invested mainly in electrical and electronics, and basic metal products. Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said domestic investments have increased in response to the call by the government for local investors to assume a prominent role under the Economic Transformation Programme. (6 December, Business Times) Malaysia destinasi pelaburan penting Denmark: Malaysia dianggap sebagai salah sebuah destinasi pelaburan terpenting bagi Denmark apabila dengan kejayaan merekodkan hasil perdagangan mencecah 200 peratus keluaran dalam negara kasar (KDNK) pada tahun lalu. Duta Denmark ke Malaysia, H.E Svend Waever berkata, pelaburan Denmark di Malaysia pada tahun 2010 berjumlah RM2.23 bilion. “Malaysia merupakan antara lokasi perdagangan yang rancak dalam dunia buat masa ini. Pelaburan asing langsung (FDI) ke Malaysia bagi tahun lalu sahaja mencatatkan sebanyak RM28 bilion. (2 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 2 LOCAL TEMPATAN RM200m Telupid new township: A new township will be developed in Telupid. Bandar Baru Telupid Jaya, a project costing RM200 million, will be launched in early January next year. It is a modern commercial centre comprising multi-purpose twostorey shoplots which are ideal for operating retail shops, offices, supermarkets, banks, restaurants, hotels and a petrol station. Telupid is about 90 minutes drive from Sandakan. The township which is joint venture project between Syarikat Kesemua Sdn Bhd and a local Bumiputra entrepreneur will be built on a 60-acre site near the highway linking Kota Kinabalu to the east coast towns of Sandakan, Tawau and Lahad Datu. (30 December, New Sabah Times) Sabah growth projects show good results: The government’s decision to establish the Sabah Development Corridor (SDC) in 2008 has begun to yield results with cumulative investment committed breaching RM63 billion as at last month. More than RM16 billion of the investment committed has been realised. The figures did not include the amount spent on new SDC entry point projects identified following the Regional Cities and Corridors Lab, which will only be announced during its Open Day, scheduled for early next year. (16 Business Times) 11,903 isi rumah terima manfaat RM116 juta: Kerajaan negeri telah menyalurkan sebanyak RM116 juta bagi melaksanakan program 1Azam (Akhiri Zaman Miskin) di negeri ini sejak penghujung 2010. Timbalan Ketua Menteri, Datuk Yahya Hussin berkata, seramai 11,903 ketua isi rumah miskin tegar dan miskin di negeri ini mendapat manfaat daripada program itu setakat ini. “Setakat 15 Disember tahun ini Kementerian Pertanian dan Industri Makanan negeri telah pun mencapai sasaran 95 peratus yang telah dibantu daripada 12,500 yang disasarkan. (24 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Peruntukan RM50,000 dilulus beri peluang pekebun kecil lakukan program ternak kambing: Kementerian Perusahaan, 1 – 31 December 2011 Perladangan dan Komoditi meluluskan peruntukan sebanyak RM50,000 untuk memberi peluang kepada pekebun-pekebun kecil menjalankan program ternakan kambing di daerah ini. Timbalan Menterinya, Dato’ Hamzah Zainuddin, berkata dengan adanya peruntukan tersebut sudah pasti membantu mereka meningkatkan ekonomi masing-masing tambahan pula ternakan kambing berpotensi berkembang maju asalkan diusahakan secara bersungguh-sungguh. (9 Disember, New Sabah Times) Sabah tumpu perkasakan pengeluaran makanan 2012: Kementerian Pertanian dan Industri Makanan Sabah akan memberi fokus kepada usaha memperkasakan infrastruktur yang terlibat dengan pengeluaran sumber makanan, terutama beras mulai tahun depan. Timbalan Ketua Menteri, Datuk Yahya Hussin berkata, kementerian itu menerima RM132 juta dalam Bajet 2012 dengan Jabatan Pertanian Negeri diperuntukan RM40.78 juta. “Fokus utama kementerian tahun depan adalah untuk memperhebatkan lagi pembangunan sektor pertanian di Sabah dengan memperkasa infrastruktur dalam pengeluaran sumber makanan,” katanya. (12 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Sawit Kinabalu beri sumbangan besar ekonomi Sabah – Musa: Syarikat milik penuh kerajaan negeri, Sawit Kinabalu terus memberi sumbangan memberangsangkan dengan merekodkan cukai jualan sebanyak RM51 juta sehingga Oktober tahun ini. Ketua Menteri, Datuk Seri Musa Aman berkata, sumbangan besar itu telah memberi manfaat kepada kerajaan negeri dalam memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi Sabah. Bagaimanapun, beliau berharap syarikat itu terus meningkatkan prestasi setanding dengan syarikat gergasi kelapa sawit lain di negara ini. “Dengan mencatat jumlah keuntungan sebelum cukai sebanyak RM202 juta pada akhir 2010, Sawit Kinabalu telah menunjukkan prestasi yang cemerlang. (9 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Six villages picked to develop Sabah handicraft industry: Kampung Sebait, near Sandakan, is one of six villages in the State picked by the Sabah Foundation to develop the handicraft industry for an eightyear period. Sabah Foundation Group Director, Tan Sri Datu Khalil Datu Jamalul, said free basic skills training would be provided for the villages to boost awareness on the potential of the industry. He said 32 training programmes in handicraft had been implemented involving 1,026 participants, since July. “Other than encouraging creativity and innovation, the effort is aimed at increasing the income of the villagers,” he said at the closing of the Excellent Village Handicraft Week by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman at Kampung Sebait, near Sandakan, Saturday. (18 December, Daily Express) Industri ternakan meningkat: Industri ternakan di negeri ini diyakini mampu menampung keperluan sumber makanan penduduk dan mengurangkan kadar kebergantungan barangan import di Sabah. Menteri Pertanian dan Industri Makanan negeri, Datuk Seri Yahya Hussin berkata, pengeluaran makanan berasaskan ternakan seperti daging, susu dan telur semakin meningkat di negeri ini berdasarkan kesungguhan kerajaan negeri memperkayakan bidang penternakan. Yahya yang juga Timbalan Ketua Menteri berkata, bukan sahaja bidang penternakan berjaya menyumbang kepada penjimatan jumlah import makanan luar negara, malah, ia banyak membantu golongan berpendapatan rendah menjana pendapatan. (8 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) Masalah penduduk luar bandar diutamakan: Kerajaan akan terus memberi keutamaan kepada masalah penduduk luar bandar bagi memastikan mereka sentiasa mendapat pembelaan sewajarnya. Sehubungan itu, Timbalan Menteri Sumber Asli dan Alam Sekitar negeri, Tan Sri Joseph Kurup berkata, pelbagai program akan dilaksanakan secara berterusan bagi meningkatkan taraf hidup penduduk luar bandar. “Program pembangunan dan bantuan yang akan dilaksanakan oleh kerajaan merangkumi prasarana pendidikan, kesihatan, bekalan air bersih, elektrik, jalan raya dan kemudahan asas. (2 Disember, Utusan Malaysia) MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 3 SELECTED FACTS AND FIGURES FAKTA MUTAKHIR AUTRALIA ECONOMY GDP GROWTH RATE (% QUATER ON QUATER, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) (Source: 8 December, Business Times) ASIAN DEEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) OUTLOOK EMERGING EAST ASIA GDP GROWTH, % Includes ASEAN countries plus China, HK, South Korea, S’pore & Taiwan (Source: 7 December, Business Times) JAPAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT MONTHLY, % CHANGE 1 – 31 December 2011 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 4 (Source: 29 December, Business Times) MALAYSIA RETAIL INDUSTRY QUARTERLY GROWTH RATE 2011 Quarter (%) growth rate 5.1 9.1 7.0 *5.0 *6.5 First Second Third Fourth Whole year *estimate (Source: 30 December, The Star) MALAYSIA'S PLANTATION COMMODITY EXPORTS (RM BILLION) f: forecast (Source:30 December, Business Times) 1 – 31 December 2011 MONTHLY NEWS SCAN (Tinjauan Berita Bulanan) 5