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issue 53 - Real-World Economics
issue 53 - Real-World Economics

... On the morning of May 6th the stock markets on the U.S. East Coast opened with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index at 10,867.80. Uncertainties about the prospective strength of recovery from the recession, heightened by worries about the repercussions of Greece’s debt problems, and the imp ...
Taking evolution seriously: what difference does it
Taking evolution seriously: what difference does it

... theory of the firm can still be defended. Alchian, Friedman and Becker posited that a force or mechanism similar to natural selection, competitive or market selection, is working in competitive markets. This force favours firms that happen to make positive profits over those that fail to do so. As a ...
2016 USC Casden Multifamily Forecast
2016 USC Casden Multifamily Forecast

... Analysis (BEA) showed the nation’s economy slowing to a crawl in the 4th quarter of 2015, and there have been perpetual worries about China, oil prices, high-yield credit, tech bubbles, deflation, and the list goes on. Taking a step back from the noise, the reality is that the U.S. economic expansio ...
Cochrane`s Presentation
Cochrane`s Presentation

... CAPM pricing relation. One comment: Cochrane likes to use returns in specifying m since then it has a neat interpretation. But, if m=a +bzMkt it may not always be positive. He’s a little loose with this – a stochastic discount factor that is not strictly positive can correctly price the assets it is ...
LEARNING AND SHAPING LABORATORY Part 1: Shaping
LEARNING AND SHAPING LABORATORY Part 1: Shaping

... Prior to "running" your rat in the operant conditioning chamber you will need to deprive your  rat of food for 24 hours (Check with me before you do deprivation of this length of time).  You will  also need to keep track of your rat's weight so the rat does not lose weight.  For the first part of th ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INCOMPLETE MARKETS
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INCOMPLETE MARKETS

... increase in government consumption necessarily reduces the risk-free interest rate. And second, unless the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low enough, it also reduces the capital-labor ratio, productivity, and wages. The effect on the risk-free rate is an implication of the precautionary ...
LF Economics
LF Economics

... generally tracked the rate of inflation while housing prices and mortgage debt have simultaneously boomed. The losses are larger than indicated because the ATO does not record data on principal payments, as it is not a legal tax deduction. Two-thirds of investors were negatively-geared in 2013, a si ...
RFT - Association for Contextual Behavioral Science
RFT - Association for Contextual Behavioral Science

... events. ACT therapists help the client discriminate this very behavior as problematic (creative hopelessnes) • As an alternative, help the client discriminate what he/she wants, as if experiental avoidance was not an issue. This is using the strength of rulegoverned behavior; the ability to go for g ...
LECTURE 4 Consider a consumer with a two
LECTURE 4 Consider a consumer with a two

... • Equilibrium vector satisfies a system of two non-linear differential equations. Hence the time path of variables is differentiable. • Many integrals from one derivative→ Many paths satisfying the above system. Need two boundary conditions (one for each equation). k0 given is one. Given k0 what pi ...
x 1 + x 2
x 1 + x 2

... with a > 0 and b > 0 is called a CobbDouglas utility function (very useful family of functions, as it exhibits nice properties and serves several purposes).  E.g. U(x1,x2) = x11/2 x21/2 (a = b = 1/2) V(x1,x2) = x1 x23 ...
Three Blind Mice, See How They Run: A Critique of Behavioral
Three Blind Mice, See How They Run: A Critique of Behavioral

... of science and technology upon the fate of society are always unidirectional and beneficent." I suspect that the majority of my colleagues in psychology would readily see the reasonableness of Dr. Bevan's point, but would be miffed at the suggestion that we psychologists share the blame. The traditi ...
Animal Behavior
Animal Behavior

... 1. Innate Behavior (born with it)  Behaviors are referred to as innate when the same behavior commonly is observed among a large number of individuals within a population, even if the environments are different. ...
The Cognitive Reliability Argument
The Cognitive Reliability Argument

... – Still, there is no good reason to believe that critical percentage comes anywhere close to the strong majority necessary to make the species’ cognitive capacities reliable. – What’s more, complex (and interesting) beliefs, e.g. Naturalism, are very unlikely to be among the critical percentage of t ...
Use A for True, B for False
Use A for True, B for False

... The view that extinction involved an active inhibition of responding was based on such effects as spontaneous recovery and the rapid reacquisition of responding when reinforcement was reinstated. ...
Daily RAG Recommendation
Daily RAG Recommendation

... Asian and European equity markets are strong following the sharp reversal in US equities in Friday’s trading session. Having opened lower on the back of poor nonfarm payrolls data, US equities reached their low point at around 3pm London time (& @ 1,883 on Dec futures). The index then closed 60 poin ...
A Social Discount Rate for the US
A Social Discount Rate for the US

... Where φ is the probability of death. The parameters in equation (2) must all be estimated. For the US g is estimated to be 2.2%, the same figure as the one reported in Evans and Sezer (2004), ρ is at most 0.5%, if not zero, and φ is around 1%. This gives a value for the SDR equal to 3.7%. This figur ...
Skinners_analysis_of..
Skinners_analysis_of..

...  The typical social punishers used by the verbal community have been ineffective and often a select verbal community has provided differential reinforcement for the offending verbal behavior, especially when directed towards others.  These individuals may be able to tact the effects of their behav ...
THE RAMSEY GROWTH MODEL
THE RAMSEY GROWTH MODEL

... time periods’ and reflects the individuals’ willingness to accept deviations from a uniform pattern of consumption over time. The lower θ (i.e. the higher the elasticity of substitution is), the slower the decline of the marginal utility in response to consumption growth, and therefore the more will ...
as a PDF
as a PDF

... The present study considered the development of externalizing behavior in a moderately large, community sample of youths. On the basis of the empirical evidence and theoretical models described above, we postulated that reward dominant youths would be differentially responsive to the effects of havi ...
STOCCER – A Forecasting Market for the FIFA World
STOCCER – A Forecasting Market for the FIFA World

... occasionally large number of stocks traded, markets were rather complex. Besides, the overall number of participants is mostly rather small, ranging from a few tens to hundreds of users. Markets with several thousand or more active users are scarce. Consequently, we try to address a larger number of ...
Towards a General Theory of the Stock Market
Towards a General Theory of the Stock Market

... (7) Long run ‘mean reversion’ in stock prices may occur. If share prices follow a random walk, which is an implication of the EMH with a constant discount rate, then the level of the stock market will be irrelevant to its subsequent movement. So if share prices are high, this has no implications at ...
the-Week Effect on Stock Returns and Volatility
the-Week Effect on Stock Returns and Volatility

... mean returns of Sunday; Rt-1 is the series of lagged explanatory variables;  are the coefficients of the lagged return terms; Dit is the matrix with dummies for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Saturday dummy is excluded to avoid the dummy variable trap. Values of one and zero are assigned ...
Perceptions of Fairness and Allocation Systems
Perceptions of Fairness and Allocation Systems

... al. 1995). This would indicate that situational factors have a very important role in determining a needs based allocation, leading to a welfare based outcome, where as equity is more in line with traditional economic rational and equality as more socially derived. The equity theory is one of the fi ...
DEBT – Equity Mix - Scholars Middle East Publishers
DEBT – Equity Mix - Scholars Middle East Publishers

... operating leverage, general economic conditions of the country or world, demand and price variations, intensity of competition and so on. The operating risk is further aggravated, if the firms have high proportion of fixed costs. Matured companies have relatively stable market conditions and hence t ...
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from... Economic Research Volume Title: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from... Economic Research Volume Title: Research Findings in the Economics of Aging

... project as well as specific comments on this chapter. The first two papers (Poterba et al. 2005; Poterba, Venti, and Wise 2009), focus on the trade-off between risk and returns faced by individual households in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) cohort who use 401(k) plans to save for retirement. ...
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Behavioral economics

Behavioral economics and the related field, behavioral finance, study the effects of psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions and the consequences for market prices, returns, and the resource allocation. Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic agents. Behavioral models typically integrate insights from psychology, neuroscience and microeconomic theory; in so doing, these behavioral models cover a range of concepts, methods, and fields. Behavioral economics is sometimes discussed as an alternative to neoclassical economics.The study of behavioral economics includes how market decisions are made and the mechanisms that drive public choice. The use of ""Behavioral economics"" in U.S. scholarly papers has increased in the past few years as a recent study shows.There are three prevalent themes in behavioral finances: Heuristics: People often make decisions based on approximate rules of thumb and not strict logic. Framing: The collection of anecdotes and stereotypes that make up the mental emotional filters individuals rely on to understand and respond to events. Market inefficiencies: These include mis-pricings and non-rational decision making.
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