Cascading uncertainty in climate change models and its implications
... assessment as some models have greater spatial resolution while others do not. Moreover, as discussed by Palmer (2012), we understand uncertainty within a single model but the notion of quantifying uncertainty from many models currently lacks any real theoretical background or basis. The outputs fro ...
... assessment as some models have greater spatial resolution while others do not. Moreover, as discussed by Palmer (2012), we understand uncertainty within a single model but the notion of quantifying uncertainty from many models currently lacks any real theoretical background or basis. The outputs fro ...
Climate change in Cyprus: projections from regional climate model
... ‐ For the same UV dose, each 1oC increase in temperature would result in estimated increases in the incidences of certain skin cancers of 3%‐6%, ‐ High temperatures and humidity, as experienced in the tropics, may increase the deleterious effects of UV‐B radiation on human health, including suppr ...
... ‐ For the same UV dose, each 1oC increase in temperature would result in estimated increases in the incidences of certain skin cancers of 3%‐6%, ‐ High temperatures and humidity, as experienced in the tropics, may increase the deleterious effects of UV‐B radiation on human health, including suppr ...
pdf version - Geophysical Institute
... and velocity.10 The CCSM modeling suite can run in various configurations, from fully coupled (all model components are interactive) to specified ocean and ice as a lower boundary forcing for the atmospheric model. CCSM3 is one of the primary tools used to predict future climate. In fact, NCAR condu ...
... and velocity.10 The CCSM modeling suite can run in various configurations, from fully coupled (all model components are interactive) to specified ocean and ice as a lower boundary forcing for the atmospheric model. CCSM3 is one of the primary tools used to predict future climate. In fact, NCAR condu ...
Climate
... and Oklahoma was carried all the way to the eastern far is the rise in mean temperatures since the early 20th seaboard. Dust emitted from drought-stricken areas can century. Historical temperature records show this change have substantial impacts on downwind ecosystems; for most clearly in daily min ...
... and Oklahoma was carried all the way to the eastern far is the rise in mean temperatures since the early 20th seaboard. Dust emitted from drought-stricken areas can century. Historical temperature records show this change have substantial impacts on downwind ecosystems; for most clearly in daily min ...
Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?
... Sea ice is an important climate component in the Earth system [Solomon et al., 2007]. Considerable reductions in Arctic sea ice extent have been observed in the past years, due in part to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations [Stroeve et al., 2007; Serreze et al., 2007a; Kay et al., 2011; Holland ...
... Sea ice is an important climate component in the Earth system [Solomon et al., 2007]. Considerable reductions in Arctic sea ice extent have been observed in the past years, due in part to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations [Stroeve et al., 2007; Serreze et al., 2007a; Kay et al., 2011; Holland ...
Jim LaGro UW-Madison - Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
... from water tables rising after prolonged periods of excessive precipitation. ...
... from water tables rising after prolonged periods of excessive precipitation. ...
Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the
... PRECIS was run for A1B over the period 1950–2099, applying a horizontal resolution of 0.22° latitude and longitude (about 25×25 km) and 19 vertical levels (Fig. 1). In section 4 we show that the simulation captures the mean climatic conditions and patterns, as well as the increasing temperature tend ...
... PRECIS was run for A1B over the period 1950–2099, applying a horizontal resolution of 0.22° latitude and longitude (about 25×25 km) and 19 vertical levels (Fig. 1). In section 4 we show that the simulation captures the mean climatic conditions and patterns, as well as the increasing temperature tend ...
Ecosystems
... Oceans control Earth’s climate over decades to centuries – understanding how they are changing is key to choosing appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. Abrupt climate changes in the past, linked to change in the overturning circulation, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overt ...
... Oceans control Earth’s climate over decades to centuries – understanding how they are changing is key to choosing appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. Abrupt climate changes in the past, linked to change in the overturning circulation, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overt ...
Consequences of elevated temperatures on legume biomass
... 1955; West et al. 2005). Net N mineralisation is often used as an index of plant available N (Schimel and Bennett 2004). In a meta-analysis, Rustad et al. (2001) found that elevated temperature increased net N mineralisation in several studies but warming had no effect in others. Moreover, the respo ...
... 1955; West et al. 2005). Net N mineralisation is often used as an index of plant available N (Schimel and Bennett 2004). In a meta-analysis, Rustad et al. (2001) found that elevated temperature increased net N mineralisation in several studies but warming had no effect in others. Moreover, the respo ...
This Presentation
... • Evaluate the most common statistical downscaling methods, SDSM and LARSWG, for the assessment of the hydrological conditions of the basin. • Generate climate change scenarios for the basin using different emission scenarios and AOGCMs (Atm.and Ocean). • Investigate the possiblity of climate change ...
... • Evaluate the most common statistical downscaling methods, SDSM and LARSWG, for the assessment of the hydrological conditions of the basin. • Generate climate change scenarios for the basin using different emission scenarios and AOGCMs (Atm.and Ocean). • Investigate the possiblity of climate change ...
CLIMATE CHANGE AND VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
... • Assessment of adaptive capacity of communities in vulnerable areas • Health education to communities about prevention and control of VBDs • Development of health infrastructure. ...
... • Assessment of adaptive capacity of communities in vulnerable areas • Health education to communities about prevention and control of VBDs • Development of health infrastructure. ...
Energy Theme Breakdown - Learning for a Sustainable Future
... Global warming by the greenhouse effect is determined by the inability of the atmosphere to transmit certain wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. Sunlight contains a range of wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation. When radiation is transmitted, the Earth’s surface heats up and begins to r ...
... Global warming by the greenhouse effect is determined by the inability of the atmosphere to transmit certain wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. Sunlight contains a range of wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation. When radiation is transmitted, the Earth’s surface heats up and begins to r ...
tc7_17_climate_change_waterbirds_0
... throughout the atmosphere leading to a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the twentieth century (Fig. 3). The severity of droughts has increased, with summer drying and an associated increased ...
... throughout the atmosphere leading to a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the twentieth century (Fig. 3). The severity of droughts has increased, with summer drying and an associated increased ...
The Role of Regional SST Warming Variations in the - NCAR-RAL
... data because they have coverage over both land and ocean and also because their grid spacing is similar to that employed by the ICTP AGCM, which at T30 is approximately 3.88 latitude 3 longitude. We use the period 1979–2002. Simulated SLP and wind data are compared with the National Centers for Envi ...
... data because they have coverage over both land and ocean and also because their grid spacing is similar to that employed by the ICTP AGCM, which at T30 is approximately 3.88 latitude 3 longitude. We use the period 1979–2002. Simulated SLP and wind data are compared with the National Centers for Envi ...
A Climate in Crisis: How climate change is
... Nearly thirteen million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are dangerously hungry and in need of humanitarian assistance. The worst drought-affected areas in Somalia are on the brink of famine.1 The crisis could deteriorate significantly over the coming weeks, as rainfall in March and early April ...
... Nearly thirteen million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are dangerously hungry and in need of humanitarian assistance. The worst drought-affected areas in Somalia are on the brink of famine.1 The crisis could deteriorate significantly over the coming weeks, as rainfall in March and early April ...
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible
... anomalies could occur because of aggregation of random atmospheric events. Despite recent attempts to make the NAO the key driver for explaining Arctic climate variations (e.g., Moritz et al. 2002), the NAO cannot explain why the Arctic rapidly started to warm up from 1920 onward, since in fact the ...
... anomalies could occur because of aggregation of random atmospheric events. Despite recent attempts to make the NAO the key driver for explaining Arctic climate variations (e.g., Moritz et al. 2002), the NAO cannot explain why the Arctic rapidly started to warm up from 1920 onward, since in fact the ...
Regional Summaries - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
... important caveats are in order however, on precipitation projections. First, there is a significant degree of uncertainty, particularly for east and west Africa. Second, even if, on an annual average, precipitation does increase, it is likely to be concentrated in bursts rather than evenly distribut ...
... important caveats are in order however, on precipitation projections. First, there is a significant degree of uncertainty, particularly for east and west Africa. Second, even if, on an annual average, precipitation does increase, it is likely to be concentrated in bursts rather than evenly distribut ...
Official PDF , 11 pages
... large, subjective assessment of uncertainty later. If the assessment is reasonable, this level of uncertainty poses significant challenges for the development of adaptation strategies. It is extremely dangerous to develop a strategy based on two or three scenarios when so little is known about where ...
... large, subjective assessment of uncertainty later. If the assessment is reasonable, this level of uncertainty poses significant challenges for the development of adaptation strategies. It is extremely dangerous to develop a strategy based on two or three scenarios when so little is known about where ...
The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop
... and P over a 50-year period (2040–2060 versus 1990– 2010) from 16 climate models. Results from each climate model are averaged across crop areas in five continents. The average model-projected rates of warming are similar to the mean observed rates since 1980 of roughly 0.3°C per decade (Fig. 2). The ...
... and P over a 50-year period (2040–2060 versus 1990– 2010) from 16 climate models. Results from each climate model are averaged across crop areas in five continents. The average model-projected rates of warming are similar to the mean observed rates since 1980 of roughly 0.3°C per decade (Fig. 2). The ...
Global warming hiatus
A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.